Financial attention
► CCTV Finance and Economics: In the first week of Spring Festival travel from January 7 to 13, 2023, the actual number of passenger flights carried out by domestic civil aviation increased for seven consecutive days, reaching more than 70000 flights, and the average daily passenger flights exceeded 10000. The number of domestic passenger flights increased by 12% year on year, and has recovered to more than 80% in the same period before the epidemic. Among them, on January 8, 2023, the second day of the Spring Festival, the number of domestic passenger flights exceeded 10000 again after nearly five months.
► Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce: As the impact of the epidemic fades away, the market for the Spring Festival Eve meal in 2023 will gradually enter the recovery stage, showing a scene of prosperity in both the ordering of food and the delivery of prefabricated vegetables. The rebooking rate of restaurant food has increased rapidly, and the reservation rate of restaurant food has reached more than 80%. In addition, prefabricated vegetable takeout is very popular. The supply of prefabricated vegetables for the New Year's Eve dinner increased by nearly 20% year on year.
► National Development and Reform Commission: Recently, some iron ore information enterprises reprinted false old news, confusing the public and causing adverse effects on the market. The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission interviewed relevant information enterprises at the first time, reminding them that they must carefully verify and ensure the accuracy of market and price information before releasing it. We will severely crack down on illegal acts such as fabricating and spreading information about price increases, hoarding and raising prices, and effectively ensure the smooth operation of the iron ore market.
Macroeconomics
1. Beijing: The city's GDP is expected to achieve positive growth in 2022, and the per capita disposable income of residents will increase steadily. The main expected goals of economic and social development in 2023 are to increase the regional GDP by more than 4.5%, increase the general public budget income by about 4%, control the urban survey unemployment rate by less than 5%, increase the consumer price by about 3%, increase the income of residents basically in line with the economic growth, and implement the national requirements for indicators such as environmental quality, energy and water resources.
2. Shanghai: In 2022, in the face of the superimposed impact of unexpected factors, the city's economy emerged from a V-shaped rebound. The expected target for economic growth this year is set at 5.5% or more. We will adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, highlight the work of stabilizing growth, employment and prices, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity of the economy. Actively organize enterprises to participate in various domestic and foreign commercial activities, and vigorously support the development of cultural tourism, exhibition, consumption and other industries.
3. CITIC Securities: As of January 15, 2023, 27 provinces have disclosed economic growth and other targets. From the perspective of work content, new infrastructure construction and consumption promotion are new priorities in the work of each province. In addition, the real estate policy is also the key support direction in the work report of local governments. Overseas, inflation will continue to fall in December 2022, and the probability of the Fed's rate increase further slowing to 25bps is high. The future market trend may fluctuate between the fall in inflation and the tight employment.
4. CCTV: Russia's Siberia region has recently experienced a rare cold weather. The coldest local temperature has dropped to minus 73 ℃, breaking the record of the lowest temperature in the northern hemisphere. From the night of January 11 to 12, 2023, the temperature of Oemiakon, known as the 'World Cold Pole', reached minus 60 ℃. These areas have not experienced such low temperature for about 10 years.
5. South Korea: The population will decline for the third consecutive year in 2022, with the number of single families approaching 10 million. The national registered residence population was 51.439 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.39%. The average number of people in each household nationwide is 2.17, a record low. It is expected that by 2025, South Korea will become a super aged society with a population of 65 years old and above accounting for 20% of the total population.
Real estate developments
1. Economic Daily: The key to stabilizing the financing of real estate enterprises lies in 'selecting the best', that is, 'not only ownership, but only advantages and disadvantages'. We should adhere to two principles in our work. The first is fairness. We should adhere to the principle of 'two unswerving', treat state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and enterprises with mixed ownership equally, and set no threshold on access conditions. The second is to select the best, and focus on supporting the sound development of the real estate enterprises with perfect governance, focus on the main business, and good qualifications, with a view to achieving the effect of 'four or two thousand catties'.
2. Shanghai: decided to complete the transformation of 'two old and one village' in three steps in 10 years. The first step is to fully complete the renovation of scattered houses below Grade II old buildings with an area of nearly 400000 square meters in the central urban area by 2025, and basically complete the renovation of 'small beam and thin plate' houses with certain safety hazards. The second step is to complete the reconstruction of 'small beams and thin plates' and the reconstruction of villages in the city around the central urban area by 2027. The third step is to complete the renovation of uncompleted staff housing and the renovation of villages in cities by 2032.
Stock market inventory
1. Haitong Securities: Since the end of October 2022, the market has been the first wave of rise in the early bull market, which has lasted for an average of three months in history. The broad base index has risen by around 30%. Compared with history, this time has not come. In the past, during the first wave of bull market rise, the style was balanced, and the industry rose generally. Since the low point rise, the value has been slightly superior, and it is expected to take over after learning from the historical growth. The growth sector attaches importance to the digital economy, new energy has structural highlights, and securities companies also deserve attention. Throughout the year, consumption is expected to recover and reverse, and essential consumer goods are better.
2. Everbright Securities: Since the substantial optimization of the epidemic prevention policy in the first ten days of December 2022, the epidemic infection data in China has risen rapidly and reached the peak faster than expected. As of the first ten days of January 2023, the epidemic search index has significantly cooled, and the first wave of epidemic infection in the country may have passed. Residents' travel, freight logistics and offline consumption have shown an accelerated recovery trend. It is expected that the economic recovery will accelerate in the first quarter of 2023, and the repair speed may exceed market expectations.
3. China Fund News: The 'good start' of the new fund issuance in 2023 is a bit early. As early as December 2022, many fund companies started the new fund issuance, warm-up, publicity and so on. At present, the overall new fund sales are 'hot and cold'. As of January 13, 2023, 16 new funds have been set up, with a total raised capital of more than 10 billion yuan and a total issuance scale of 11.4 billion yuan.
4. Munger, the partner of Buffett, the 'god of stocks': The Daily Journal, which is sitting in the town, announced the position record of US shares of 174 million yuan by the end of 2022 (an increase of 11 million dollars compared with the end of the third quarter). The four stocks are Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Alibaba and United States Bank in order of market value. In addition, Posco Steel was emptied in the fourth quarter, and the above four stocks stood still.
5. Desai Battery: An investor asked on the interactive platform whether the recent order cutting of Apple, the largest downstream customer, had an impact on your company's operation due to weak demand? Specific impact degree and your company's response strategy? The company replied that the current production and operation conditions are normal and business cooperation with major customers is good.
6. Sinopharm Holdings: From January 13 to 14, 2023, since the first batch of COVID-19 therapeutic drug Monoclavir capsules were shipped, subsidiaries in various regions have cooperated and coordinated to achieve the first sales and distribution in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Sichuan and other places through the national distribution network resources and modern logistics system.
7. People's Daily: It is estimated that the net profit in 2022 will be 300 million to 360 million yuan, an increase of 80.88% - 117.06% year on year. During the reporting period, it was confirmed that the income from equity disposal was about 75 million yuan, and the income from changes in fair value generated by holding financial instruments was about 80 million yuan, which had a certain impact on the performance.
8. Bubugao: Bubugao Group will transfer 10% of its shares in the listed company to Xiangtan Industrial Investment Investment. After the completion of this equity change, Xiangtan Industrial Investment Investment will become the controlling shareholder of the listed company, and Xiangtan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will become the actual controller. The trading of shares resumed on the morning of January 16.
9. Quanjude: With the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic situation policy, the company's various stores have fully resumed the catering business. However, due to the different regions where the stores are located, the current passenger flow recovery in some regions is insufficient, and the catering business recovery is less than expected.
10. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 4 new shares were opened for subscription, including 1 on the Shanghai Main Board, 2 on the Growth Enterprise Board and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. They are Cinda Securities, Lingwei Technology, Greebo, and Baolijie.
11. Unlimited sales: This week, a total of 65 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 27.474 billion shares and a market value of 178.637 billion yuan. Among them, Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway ranked first in the list of lifting the ban with 107.8 billion yuan, and Aojie Technology and Bank of Lanzhou ranked second and third with 11.446 billion yuan and 8.42 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. Tech Planet: It is reported that the goal of Tiktok Life Service in 2023 is 150 billion yuan, which is about twice the GMV of the previous year, and has exceeded one third of the annual turnover of Meituan's liquor and travel. It is subdivided into various business lines. Catering has undertaken half of the GMV target, and is planned to complete 75 billion, 45 billion by the comprehensive plan, and 30 billion by the liquor travel plan.
2. Financial breakfast: hot spots keep coming out, tracking what you want to hear. The investment of the State Grid has continued to rise for three consecutive years and reached a record high. What is the plan for the investment of the power grid in 2023? What is the current core pain point of power grid investment? What segments of the industry chain are worth paying attention to? Go to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # Power grid investment hit a new record high
Industry observation
1. CCTV News: Recently, the first strong cold air of this year brought severe cooling and extensive rain and snow weather to most parts of China, and the central enterprises of coal and electricity were fully opened to ensure the energy supply. In 2022, the National Energy Group will achieve 600 million tons of coal output, up 5.4% year on year; The coal sales volume was 790 million tons, up 2.6% year on year.
2. Forestry and Grass Bureau: In 2022, the total output value of the national forestry industry will reach 8.04 trillion yuan. Emerging industries such as woody oil, understory economy, flowers, and ecotourism will flourish. The supply capacity of green ecological products will continue to increase. Three pillar industries with an annual output value of more than trillion yuan, including economic forest, wood and bamboo processing, and ecotourism, have been cultivated.
3. China Audio and Digital Association: In 2022, the actual sales revenue of China's game market is about 265.88 billion yuan, down 10.33% year on year. Among them, the sales revenue of mobile games was about 193.06 billion yuan, down 14.40% year on year. The sales revenue of client games was about 61.37 billion yuan, up 4.38% year on year. The sales revenue of online games was 5.28 billion yuan, down 12.44% year on year. The sales revenue of the e-commerce market was about 117.8 billion yuan, down 15.96% year on year.
4. The professional version of the lighthouse: As of 17:45 on January 15, 2023, the pre-sale box office of the 2023 Spring Festival new film has exceeded 100 million. The four live action movies 'Unknown', 'Man Jianghong', 'Wandering the Earth 2' and 'Exchange Life' rank in the top four respectively.
5. Beijing Business Daily: The Chinese New Year has passed, and the New Year flavor is strong, and the New Year atmosphere in Beijing shopping malls is also stronger. The flow of people rose rapidly on Saturday and Sunday, among which consumers bought more dishes, bowls and other products.
6. Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association: The domestic sales of new cars in 2022 will be 4725472, up 25.7% from the previous year. The annual sales volume surpassed Japan for the first time, becoming the third largest market in the world after China and the United States. Japan's sales volume will decrease by 5.6% to about 4.2 million vehicles in 2022, the lowest level in 45 years.
Insight Economics
1. CCTV News: US President Biden's private storage of confidential documents continues to ferment. The White House said on January 14, 2023 that Biden's aides had found more documents with confidential marks in Biden's private residence in Wilmington, Delaware.
2. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Affairs of Hungary: The amount of oil and gas obtained from Russia cannot be replaced in the short term. Russian natural gas accounts for 85% of Hungarian natural gas consumption, and Russian oil accounts for 65% of Hungarian oil demand. Although Hungary has been looking for the diversification of energy supply, it needs to invest a lot of money and time.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 6.7099 at 16:30, up 0.6897% and 2.1709% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.7292, up 0.5733% and 2.3508% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 10 new listed companies were added, with a turnover of 1.032 billion yuan, up 23.1% month-on-month. So far, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6590.
3. Shanghai Environment Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 500 tons, with a total turnover of 27873 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 55.50 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from last Friday.
4. US equities: Last Friday, the Dow closed 0.33% higher at 34302.61, up 2% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 0.71% to 11079.16, up 4.82% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.4% higher at 3999.09, up 2.67% for the week.
5. Europe: On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed up 0.64% at 7844.07, up 1.88% for the week; Germany DAX30 closed 0.19% higher at 15086.52, up 3.26% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.69% higher at 7023.50, up 2.37% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX February gold futures closed 1.21% higher at 1921.7 yuan/ounce, up 2.78% for the week.
7. Crude oil: last Friday, WTI February crude oil futures closed 1.87% higher at 79.86 USD/barrel, up 8.25% for the week; Brent crude oil futures for March ended up 1.49% at $85.28/barrel, up 8.54% for the week.
·Power grid investment hit a new record·
► China Securities News: The State Grid of China previously disclosed that from 2016 to 2019, the actual completed investment of power grid was 497.7 billion yuan, 485.4 billion yuan, 488.9 billion yuan and 447.4 billion yuan respectively. In 2020, the power grid investment of the State Grid began to pick up, and the investment completed in that year was 460.5 billion yuan; In 2021, the investment in power grid will be 488.2 billion yuan and 509.4 billion yuan in 2022. Xin Baoan, Chairman of the State Grid and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, said recently that investment will be increased in 2023, of which the investment in the power grid will exceed 520 billion yuan, a new record high. At the same time, the project reserve will be planned ahead of time to do a good job in the study of the five transmission channels of the large wind and electricity base in the Gobi Desert. Strive to reach 300 million kilowatts of trans-provincial and trans-regional power transmission capacity in 2025 and 370 million kilowatts in 2030, with clean energy accounting for more than 50% of the electricity delivered.
► CICC: At present, the two core pain points facing the power grid are the power supply guarantee and the new energy supply and consumption from the large base. In 2023, the power grid investment may focus on these two major focuses, and focus on solving the shortcomings of the UHV and main grid construction. It is expected that the composite growth rate of the power grid investment is expected to reach more than 10% in 2022-2024. Influenced by various factors such as epidemic situation, the approval of UHV DC project in 2022 was less than expected, and the newly started lines were UHV AC. Driven by the urgent demand for clean energy export, the demand for inter-provincial power mutual assistance and the demand for counter-cyclical regulation, it is expected that a new round of UHV DC approval peak will be ushered in 2023-2024, in which the 'four direct and three alternating current' is expected to be approved in 2023, and the year-on-year growth of UHV investment is expected to achieve more than 80%.
► Zhongtai Securities: The domestic epidemic prevention and control strategy has improved, and the disturbance of the epidemic to economic growth has weakened. With the gradual implementation of the economic stabilization package, the domestic economic momentum has recovered, the power demand is expected to rebound, and the electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to show a month-on-month improvement trend. From the perspective of power generation, in order to ensure the supply of electric power and energy, it is expected that thermal power is expected to usher in a profit turning point, nuclear power operators are expected to usher in a rise in both volume and price, while the output of wind, electricity and other power will maintain a high level. From the perspective of installed capacity data, the new installed capacity of wind and solar new energy ranks first, the installed capacity of offshore wind power grows rapidly, and the construction cost decreases and the large-scale trend of offshore wind power units advances, especially the increase of PV installed capacity is large, and the price reduction trend of PV upstream starts, and operators are expected to enjoy both scale and profit increases.
► Xinda Securities: the proportion of new energy is increasing, and the energy storage has a rigid demand. Domestically, China has frequently issued policies to improve the actual benefits of energy storage, stimulating the high demand for energy storage, and the number of energy storage projects that have completed the bidding in 2022 will reach 29GWh, with high certainty of future growth. With the decrease of battery cost and the improvement of energy storage economy, the installed capacity of energy storage is expected to grow faster than expected. It is expected that the composite growth rate of the new installed capacity of domestic energy storage is expected to reach 119% in 2021-25. Overseas, the United States has actively promoted policies, accelerated the construction of large storage, more mature and diversified business models of large storage in Europe, and the energy inflation superimposed on geopolitics has stimulated the rapid growth of household storage demand. It is expected that the global energy storage will grow at a compound rate of up to 90% in 2021-25, of which the long-term five-year compound growth rate of household storage will reach 91%.