Financial attention
► Ministry of Culture and Tourism: 308 million domestic tourism trips were made during the Spring Festival holiday this year, up 23.1% year on year, and recovered to 88.6% in the same period in 2019. Domestic tourism revenue reached 375.843 billion yuan, up 30% year on year, and recovered to 73.1% in the same period of 2019. The national cultural and tourism market during the Spring Festival holiday is generally safe, stable and orderly.
► Ctrip: As the first Spring Festival since 2019 without having to celebrate the Spring Festival on the spot, the tourism market has handed over its most eye-catching report card in three years. During the Spring Festival, both domestic and foreign travel orders reached a three-year peak, and the overall number of travel orders increased by four times compared with the Spring Festival in the Year of the Tiger. At the same time, during the Spring Festival, the overall order of outbound travel increased by 640% year on year, the order volume of mainland passengers booking overseas hotels increased by more than four times year on year, and the order volume of cross-border air tickets increased by more than four times.
► Cailian News Agency: In New York, California and Washington, more than 3000 Amazon employees have recently been informed that they will lose their jobs. This is part of the company's second wave of large-scale layoffs. This week and last week, Amazon submitted layoff notices to the three states in accordance with the law.
Macroeconomics
1. CCTV News: From January 21 to 26, the national immigration administration inspected 2.392 million entry-exit personnel, an increase of 123.9% year on year. Among them, 1.2 million people entered the country, up 127.2% year on year; 1192000 outbound passengers, up 120.7% year on year. 109000 entry-exit vehicles (ships, trains and vehicles) were inspected, up 62% year on year.
2. Immigration Department of the Hong Kong SAR Government: The Hong Kong Spring Festival public holiday ended, and a large number of citizens returned to Hong Kong through different ports. From January 21 to 25, more than 417000 people entered Hong Kong, including more than 66000 mainland passengers, accounting for about 16% of the total. During the 5-day public holiday, the total number of outbound passengers from Hong Kong exceeded 542000, of which more than 453000 people from Hong Kong, accounting for 84% of the total outbound passengers.
3. CCTV News: On the last day of the Spring Festival holiday, highway, railway and civil aviation all ushered in the peak return passenger flow. At 0-12 on January 27, the traffic volume of the road network has exceeded 27 million vehicles, and the national road network has maintained a high level of operation. During the seven-day holiday, the national waterway is expected to send 5.1922 million passengers, an increase of 92.49% over the same period.
4. Xinhua Finance and Economics: Chemezov, president of the Russian State Technology Group, said that the group would invest tens of billions of rubles in the upgrading and transformation of the 15 factories that were recently assigned to the group, a considerable part of which were gunpowder factories.
5. Executive Vice President of the European Commission: There is no winner in the subsidy competition. The EU must respond to the US Inflation Reduction Act. The EU's response must be firm but proportionate. The EU faces many risks, so it cannot lose its partners.
6. South Korea Statistics Agency: Due to changes in eating habits and other reasons, the per capita consumption of rice in South Korea has continued to decline in recent years, reaching a new low last year since the start of statistics in 1962. The per capita consumption of rice in South Korea last year was 56.7 kg, down 0.2 kg or 0.4% from 2021; The consumption of grain, mainly rice, decreased by 0.3 kg to 64.7 kg from 2021, which is also the lowest level since the beginning of statistics.
Real estate developments
1. Liaoning Province: encourage the second-hand housing transaction and the new commercial housing sales to enjoy the same subsidy support policy. For the second-hand house of the mortgage bank, it can be 'transferred with mortgage' at the time of transaction, and it can be transferred without repaying the loan in advance. We will implement preferential tax policies for the continuation, acceptance, acquisition, lease and other links of the 'uncompleted residential building' project, and promote the resumption, reconstruction and revitalization of the 'uncompleted residential building' project.
2. Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department: Hong Kong property price index fell for 7 consecutive months, and in December 2022, the property price index hit a new low of more than 5 and a half years. In 2022, the property price fell by 15.6%, ending the 13-year rise.
Stock market inventory
1. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed at 22688.90, up 0.54%. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.04% to 4813.23. The state-owned enterprise index rose 0.87% to 7773.61. On the market, the film and television entertainment, auto parts, and software sectors rose at the top, while the real estate sector rose and fell back. Country Garden rose by more than 7% to a new high in more than a month; Home appliances, auto dealers, and wind power sectors were among the largest losers, while most of the technology stocks fell.
2. Tianfeng Securities: Apple has stopped developing its own Wi-Fi chips for a period of time, which means that Apple supplier Botong will continue to provide Wi-Fi chips for Apple in the foreseeable future, including chips for iPhone15/Pro series models to be released in 2023.
3. Xiangcai Securities: In 2022, with the development of the over-the-counter market and the change of the business format of the whole industry, there will be more and more cooperation between securities companies. The cooperation between securities companies, non-banks and banks, including Internet companies serving the entire securities industry, is also increasingly intensive. Looking forward to 2023, I believe that with the change of the cooperation mode of the whole industry and the change of financial technology, securities companies will have more room for development in the digital transformation.
4. JPMorgan Chase: On January 20, it bought 4.97 million H shares of Vanke at an average price of HK $16.29 per share, increasing its shareholding ratio from 5.99% to 6.25%.
Wealth Focus
1. CCTV Finance: During the Spring Festival holiday, the tourist reception of major scenic spots in Hainan continued to grow. On the New Year's Eve and the first and second days of the New Year's Day, the tourist attractions of Grade 4A and above in Hainan Province received 783500 tourists. The discount of goods in many brands of duty-free stores in Hainan is as low as 4 to 5%. Five days before the Spring Festival holiday, the total sales of 12 offshore duty-free stores in the province reached 1.685 billion yuan, an increase of 20.03% over the five days before the Spring Festival in 2022, and an increase of 325% over the five days before the Spring Festival in 2019.
2. Financial breakfast: hot spots keep coming out, tracking what you want to hear. How about the latest infection released by CDC? The box office of the 2023 Spring Festival has exceeded 6 billion yuan. What impact will it have on Chinese film history? The GDP growth rate of the United States in the fourth quarter was stronger than expected. How confident is the 'soft landing' to return to the market? Go to the end of the article to check today's Caimi tracking # Review of the 2023 Spring Festival event
Industry observation
1. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: This year, China will continue to promote the project of improving the production capacity of soybean oil, ensure that the area of soybean oil is stable at more than 350 million mu, strive to increase the area by more than 10 million mu, increase the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil by 1 percentage point, and firmly stabilize the 'oil bottle' of the Chinese people.
2. Shanghai Railway Bureau: January 27 is the last day of the Spring Festival holiday. The Yangtze River Delta Railway ushered in the peak return passenger flow. It is expected to send 1.93 million passengers on the same day. It is planned to open 298 additional passenger trains and conduct the reconnection marshalling of 261 EMU trains. Since the Spring Festival, the Yangtze River Delta Railway has sent 29.644 million passengers, with an average of 1.482 million passengers per day. The passenger flow before and during the festival increased significantly compared with last year.
3. JD: With the continuous expansion of the city of 'delivery during the Spring Festival', the shopping categories of consumers during the Spring Festival are more diversified, and the proportion of turnover of mobile communications, home appliances and medical care has increased significantly; The upgrade of service consumption was more obvious, and the turnover of life services during the Spring Festival increased by 302% year-on-year; The sales volume of 'Rabbit' theme jewelry increased by more than 10 times year on year, and the turnover of prefabricated vegetables increased by more than 6 times year on year.
4. China Unicom: During the Spring Festival this year, the average daily traffic of 5G nationwide increased by about 60% year on year, and the traffic on New Year's Eve reached the highest value during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. The sharp increase in 5G traffic reflects that 5G is accelerating its integration into the daily life of the people and becoming one of the important ways to drive new information consumption.
5. Furui: According to the analysis of the flow of iOS games in the mainland, the flow of iOS games before the Lunar New Year and the first few days of the holiday this year has maintained a positive trend year by year. The live broadcast of Tencent Holding's video number on CCTV Spring Festival Gala is ideal, with 190 million users watching it, up from 120 million last year. The reaction of iQIYI's series 'Rapids' is positive, and the popularity of the station has exploded since January 20. Tencent's 'Three Bodies' premiered on January 15, and has become the fastest hit of its serial series to exceed 20000.
6. Zhuochuang Information: The price of white sugar weakened after the New Year's Day. On the one hand, the price of raw sugar futures fell, and on the other hand, the purchase and sales of the stock before the Spring Festival ended. After the Spring Festival, the market supply is abundant, and the price of white sugar is under great pressure. It is necessary to focus on the international sugar price trend during the Spring Festival holiday.
7. Synergy Research: In the public cloud and infrastructure market, the revenue of operators and suppliers reached $544 billion in 2022, up 21% year on year. Among them, IaaS and PaaS have the fastest growth. Despite the impact of multiple factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar, the annual revenue of these services has increased by 29%, totalling more than US $195 billion.
8. British Association of Automobile Manufacturers and Traders: The number of new cars manufactured in Britain in 2022 was 775000, the lowest level since 1956. The output of new cars decreased by 10% year on year and more than 50% compared with 2016. British auto manufacturers are not only troubled by the shortage of parts and chips, but also faced with the problem of closing some auto manufacturing plants.
Insight Economics
1. The Ministry of Finance of Thailand: From January 1 to 21 this year, Thailand has welcomed 1.34 million foreign tourists. It also reiterated its forecast of 3.8% economic growth in Thailand this year, and raised the forecast of the number of international tourists in Thailand this year from 21.5 million to 27.5 million. In 2022, Thailand received 11.15 million international tourists.
2. Chinanet: The Central Disaster Security Strategy Headquarters of the Republic of Korea said that it would extend the suspension of issuing short-term visas for Chinese citizens to South Korea until February 28. If the situation improves before that, it is also possible to restart the issuance of short-term visas.
3. CCTV News: The Central Bank of Brazil released a circular showing that Brazil's total foreign direct investment in 2022 reached 90.5 billion US dollars, up 48.7% year on year, the highest level since 2012.
4. Baltic dry bulk index: fell 0.15% to 676.
Financial data
domestic
1. Securities Times: Based on the latest announcement time, a total of 1410 listed companies in the A-share market issued repurchase announcements in 2022, of which 1102 companies have completed repurchase and 268 are under implementation. In 2022, the total repurchase amount of A-share listed companies has reached 184.966 billion yuan, which is the 'big year' of A-share repurchase.
abroad
2. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.07% to 27382.56; South Korea's KOSPI index rose 0.62% to 2484.02.
3. US equities: the Dow rose 0.08% to 33978.08; The Nasdaq rose 0.95% to 11621.71; The S&P 500 closed up 0.25% at 4070.56.
4. Europe: The FTSE 100 rose 0.05% to 7765.15; Germany DAX30 rose 0.11% to 15150.03; France CAC40 closed up 0.02% at 7097.21.
5. Gold: COMEX February gold futures closed down 0.03% at $1929.4/ounce.
6. Crude oil: WTI March crude oil futures fell 1.68% to 79.68 US dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil futures for March ended down 0.93% at $86.66/barrel.
·Review of 2023 Spring Festival events·
► CDC: On January 25, it released the national epidemic situation of novel coronavirus infection. Before and after December 22, 2022, the number of infected people and the number of fever clinics reached the peak. In terms of nucleic acid detection results, since December 9, 2022, the number of positive nucleic acid detection and the positive rate of the reported population in all provinces have increased first and then decreased, and the number of positive people reached the peak (6.94 million) on December 22, and then gradually decreased, and fell to the minimum of 15000 on January 23, 2023; The positive rate of detection reached its peak on December 25 (29.2%) and gradually decreased to 5.5% on January 23.
► Cat's Eye Professional: As of 16:00 on January 27, 2023, the total box office of the 2023 Spring Festival (January 21-January 27) has exceeded 6.5 billion yuan, and the box office of a single day has exceeded 1 billion yuan for five consecutive days! 'Man Jianghong', 'Wandering the Earth 2', 'Bear Comes and Comes with Me,' Bear Hearts 'continue to rank among the top three ticket rooms for the Spring Festival. So far, the box office of the Spring Festival in 2023 has officially exceeded the total box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 by 6.039 billion yuan, becoming the second largest box office of the Spring Festival in film history, only after the total box office of 7.842 billion yuan of the Spring Festival in 2021.
► Securities Times: In 2023, as A-share prices continue to rise, Northbound funds will buy more than 100 billion yuan at the beginning of the year. In just 14 trading days, the accumulated net buying amount of Northbound funds reached 112.5 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the net buying scale of the whole year in 2022. Before that, since the establishment of the interconnection mechanism between the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets, the net purchase amount of northbound funds in a single month has never exceeded 100 billion yuan. Previously, the highest monthly net purchase amount of Northbound funds occurred in December 2021, and the net purchase amount of that month was about 89 billion yuan. Since there are only two trading days left this month, January 30, 2023 and January 31, 2023, if there is no large-scale net sale of northbound funds at that time, the net purchase amount of a single month may hit a record high.
► Financial afternoon tea: The first trading day of the Year of the Rabbit in Hong Kong shares ushered in a good start, with the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong rising 2.37%, continuing to hit the new high since April last year; The Hang Seng Science and Technology Index rose 4.26%, continuing to hit a new high since July last year. Huatai Securities said that as of January 24, the consumption data during the Spring Festival holiday had recovered well, the passenger volume of Spring Festival transportation had been restored to 57% of the same period in 2019, and many tourism businesses had exceeded the same period in 2019. The film box office had been restored to 105% of the same period in 2019. The sales of Beijing Supermarket and other enterprises four days before the Spring Festival holiday had increased by 13.7% compared with the same period in 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the overall allocation intensity of public funds to Hong Kong shares rose to 5.8%, and it is expected that there will still be some allocation space.
► Tiantianfund.com: On January 26, the latest data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States Department of Commerce showed that the economic growth slowed slightly in the fourth quarter of last year but was stronger than expected. The initial real GDP of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2022 rose 2.9% year-on-year (YoY), 0.3 percentage points slower than the 3.2% in the previous quarter, but higher than the 2.6% previously expected by the market. The United States takes the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP as the most common indicator of economic growth, because it is believed that it can better reflect the trend of the economy. If the traditional year-on-year growth rate is used, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2022 will be 1%. This low growth rate is mainly due to the base effect, because in the fourth quarter of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP once reached 5.7%.