Financial attention
► CCTV: Many universities around the world require students to stay away from ChatGPT. ChatGPT has been banned by some public schools in New York City and Seattle, and many other universities have announced plans to reduce home-based tests and increase written papers and oral tests. Many universities in Australia, India and the United Kingdom also restrict students to use ChatGPT, especially on campus and during examinations.
► CCTV News: He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Center, said that it is expected that the number of people over 80 years old in China will quadruple by 2050, which means that China has entered the era of longevity. In addition, the impact of digitalization on the lives of the elderly will increase dramatically. More than 50% of 65-69 year olds use smart phones. 1.3% of centenarians and over still use smart phones. 82.2% of the elderly use smart phone video chat, and 55.5% use it to watch news, movies, TV dramas and other entertainment.
► Financial breakfast: hot spots keep coming out, track what you want to hear. In January, the scale of new social financing exceeded expectations, and the 'start' of Tianliang Credit reached a record high. How about the quality of 'good start'? Has the inflection point of credit demand reached? What are the changes in the expectations of the real estate market and the stock market? Financial friends quickly draw to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # The credit has made a record start in 'wild wind'
Macroeconomics
1. Haitong Securities: Since the end of October 2022, the market has been similar to that of the beginning of 2019, that is, the first wave of bull market rise is divided into three small segments, and after the value and growth have performed in turn, it may end up generally. Referring to the history, the first wave of the bull market has not finished, and the last two weeks have been a small rest. The driving force of the subsequent rise is that the improvement of fundamentals has been verified by data+domestic capital inflow. Short-term industry or balance, focusing on stronger growth throughout the year, especially TMT, new energy structural highlights and medicine represented by the digital economy.
2. Three departments, including the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, will hold the national 'village evening', the national square dance exhibition and other rural cultural activities this year. We will promote the normalization of village 'village evening' activities, carry out the national 'village evening' party, select the annual popular 'village evening' programs, and select some regions as the national 'village evening' demonstration sites. Enrich the connotation of the activity, integrate local culture, rural tourism and other elements, and build the 'village evening' into a carrier reflecting the new style of farmers' spirit and the new climate of rural revitalization.
3. China News Network: This year, Chongqing will vaccinate 180000 female students in the second grade of junior high school with HPV vaccine free of charge, realizing the full coverage of districts and counties. Chongqing will implement the quota subsidy according to the standard of up to 600 yuan per person and not exceeding the total cost of vaccine. The recipients of the subsidy can use domestic bivalent HPV vaccine or choose other HPV vaccines independently.
4. JPMorgan Chase: The earthquake in Türkiye caused a lot of loss of life and significant economic impact. However, compared with 1999, the impact of the earthquake on Türkiye's economic growth may not be so obvious, because the industrial intensity of the affected areas is low. The risk is that economic growth will weaken in the first quarter of 2023, but reconstruction activities should lead to economic rebound in the second quarter and the second half of 2023.
5. CCTV News: Osenko, a scholar of Schiller's think-tank, said that the German company owns a large share of the 'Beixi' pipeline project and has a long pipeline line in China. If the article 'the United States government planned to blow up the Beixi pipeline' published by the senior American investigative journalist Simo Hirsh is true, it means that the United States has carried out a terrorist attack against the German infrastructure. Call on the German parliament to conduct a public investigation of the truth.
Real estate developments
1. Myjing.com: a message that 'the age limit of housing loans in Nanning can be extended to 80 years old' has gone crazy in the circle of friends of Nanning people. At least 8 of the multiple real estate projects in Nanning Wuxiang New District, Qingxiu District and Xingning District are promoting this new housing loan policy. A number of local banks said that the housing loan policy was indeed true, and some banks were currently implementing the policy.
2. Vanke A: The proposed non-public issuance of A-shares will raise no more than 15 billion yuan. The net proceeds after deducting the issuance fees will be used for projects such as Zhongshan Jinyu International and Guangzhou Jinmao Vanke Charming City.
Stock market inventory
1. CITIC Securities: After the Spring Festival, the economic expectations have been revised up and the policy stimulus expectations have been revised down. The current expected restructuring is nearing the end; Investors have gradually realized the domestic demand recovery sector, which has been greatly restored and valued. Intensive institutional research has accelerated the process of position adjustment, and market diffusion continues to drive the market value down. Continue to pay attention to the growth depression and raise the priority of semiconductor and Xinchuang in emerging industries.
2. Shanghai Securities News: Yaocai Securities, an established local securities firm in Hong Kong, decided to temporarily close the accounts of clients with mainland identity from February 16. Yaocai Securities announced three specific solutions for the assets in the accounts of mainland customers. First, the purchase function of the securities account is suspended and can only be sold; Second, futures, options, leveraged foreign exchange and precious metal accounts cannot open new positions, but can only close positions; Third, the customer needs to withdraw all the balance in the account before February 23, 2023.
3. China Fund News: After the liquidation of 21 stock ETFs last year, 7 stock ETF products announced liquidation shortly after the beginning of 2023 and completely withdrew from the market. However, there are still 10 new stock ETFs issued this year, including enhanced strategy ETFs, vaccines and biotechnology ETFs, rare metal ETFs, and ESGETFs. A number of new direction products have been introduced to the market.
4. Shanghai Securities News: Some of the direct-selling products of Magic Square Quantification have opened the subscription application, 'open the door to welcome customers'. In November 2021, Magic Quadrant issued an announcement that it would suspend the subscription of all its asset management products (including the addition). This time, the product that opened the subscription again is an index enhancement strategy, mainly due to the optimism about the medium and long-term performance of the Chinese market.
5. Securities Times: Tongwei Co., Ltd. is the second head photovoltaic enterprise to raise its product price recently. According to data, the average price of 182 and 210 single crystal PERC batteries was 1.14 yuan/W last week, up 17.5% on a weekly basis. As the game in the upstream links becomes white-hot, the transaction price of silicon wafers continues to rise, and the battery manufacturers also update their quotations day by day, and even higher quotations are also being negotiated in succession.
6. Geling deep pupil: At present, it does not have the conditions and ability to provide ChatGPT-related products and services. Without cooperation with OpenAI, its ChatGPT products and services have not brought business income to the company.
7. Junyao Health: Based on the continuous increase in the cost of the main raw materials, transportation, packaging materials and auxiliary materials of the company's products, it is decided to adjust the ex-factory prices of some products of the 'Taste Power' brand, with an increase of about 3% - 6%. The new price implementation will be implemented on March 1.
8. Tom: Wang Jian, the shareholder, recently received the Administrative Punishment Decision issued by the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, and was fined 3 million yuan for suspected insider trading. Wang Jian's insider trading 'Jinke Culture (securities abbreviation changed to Tom Cat)' lost a total of 2.3045 million yuan. The contents of the Administrative Penalty Decision are only related to Wang Jian and will not affect the daily operation, business and financial situation of the company.
9. TCL Central: From 2021 to 2022, due to the shortage of supply, the price of raw materials rose, and the installed capacity and market demand were severely suppressed. With the relief of supply pressure, the price of the industrial chain has accelerated in the near future, which is the normal performance of returning to the parity online. The demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to further increase in 2023; The company reasonably formulates production scheduling plan according to downstream order demand to ensure product supply.
10. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 5 new shares were issued, including 2 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board, 1 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Main Board, 1 on the New Third Board and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. They are Caidie Industry, Suqian Liansheng, Dolly Technology, Yiyi Pharmaceutical and Ainengju.
11. Unlimited sales: This week, a total of 46 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 3.341 billion shares and a market value of 46.306 billion yuan. Among them, Daotong Technology ranked first in the list of lifting ban with 7.172 billion yuan, Valin Steel and Lucky Airlines ranked second and third with 6.167 billion yuan and 3.879 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. Zhengzhou City, Henan Province: 'Hi Buy Green City to Renew New Life' spring home decoration coupon activity will start on February 13. A total of 35 million yuan of consumer vouchers for furniture, building materials and home appliances were issued, including five kinds of single electronic consumer vouchers with different values, namely, 500 yuan, 1000 yuan, 5000 yuan and 10000 yuan of home decoration consumer vouchers, and 500 yuan of 'special for electrical appliances' consumer vouchers.
2. Securities Times: The global box office of the movie 'Avatar 2' exceeded US $2.2 billion this weekend, surpassing the global box office of 'Titanic', i.e. US $2.19 billion, and entered the top three in the film history box office list.
3. Financial Times: Meta, the parent company of Facebook, postponed the budget of several teams because the company was preparing for a new round of layoffs. The industry said that in recent weeks, Meta has been unclear about the budget and the number of employees in the future. Meta did not immediately comment on this.
Industry observation
1. Economic Daily: The three major elements of AI development are data, algorithms and computing power. China has a good foundation in these three aspects. China has the largest number of Internet users in the world, rich application scenarios and obvious advantages in data accumulation. Although there is no big model that can compete with ChatGPT in the world at present, some studies show that China's computing power level is at the same level as that of the United States, and the gap is not large, and there is a possibility of catching up.
2. China Merchants Securities: In 2022, the global demand for PV was strong, and the global installed capacity was about 250GW, up 45% year on year. Looking forward to 2023, on the one hand, based on the judgment of the relationship between supply and demand, although the silicon price has rebounded significantly in the short term, there is still a large downward space in the year; On the other hand, except for some regions, the global PV policy environment has improved marginally. After comprehensive consideration, it is expected that the new installed capacity of global PV will reach 330-350GW in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 32% - 40%.
3. Minjing.com: After three years of silence, China's outbound team travel business finally ushered in the dawn. With the resumption of outbound group tourism, the demand for outbound tourism of citizens has increased rapidly, and the business volume of the entry-exit management departments in many places across the country has increased significantly, which is also a major signal of the recovery of outbound tourism demand. As of July 31, there were no vacant seats at the US visa processing points in Shanghai and Guangzhou.
4. Beiqing.com: Following the resumption of municipal key projects such as the JD 5G smart logistics base project, the North Huachuang semiconductor equipment R&D and industrialization expansion project, and the Kanglong chemical preparation development and production CDMO platform project, recently, another municipal key project in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone, the production line of the 6th generation of new semiconductor display devices of BOE, 'broke ground'. The 202 key projects in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone started with a total investment of more than 100 billion yuan.
5. Shenzhen, Guangdong Province: improve the Internet application service capability. Support basic telecom enterprises, radio and television enterprises and Internet enterprises to accelerate the expansion and intelligent transformation of the city's content distribution network (CDN), optimize and improve the deployment of CDN nodes, actively use edge computing technology, promote Internet content sources to sink into users, and comprehensively improve users' online experience. Support the '3T' pilot in the core area of the digital economy (that is, citizens can enjoy 1T cloud storage space/year, 1T network traffic/month, 1T learning materials/month for free).
6. Cailian News Agency: Recently, funds have been transferred into high-priced IC design stocks such as Liwang, Purui, Creative and LianFake. The industry said that the inventory of consumer electronic products has been adjusted for a long time, and the current economy is expected to warm up. The topic of AI application is hot, driving the operation of high-priced small and medium-sized IC design companies to warm up. In addition, demand visibility will gradually improve, business will improve from the second quarter, and the first quarter should be an operating low.
7. CCTV Finance: According to foreign media reports, more than half of Twitter's top 1000 advertisers in September last year stopped advertising on the platform in the first few weeks of January this year, including Coca-Cola, Unilever, Wells Fargo and Merck. From October last year to January 25 this year, Twitter's monthly advertising revenue fell by more than 60%, from about $127 million to about $48 million.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 6.7999 at 16:30, down 0.2684% and 0.7915% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.7884, up 0.0309% and down 0.7450% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 11 new listed companies were added, with a turnover of 841 million yuan, up 1.31% month-on-month. So far, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6557. Since this year, the cumulative turnover of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 4.521 billion yuan.
3. Shanghai Environment Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 109300 tons, with a total turnover of 6.0714 million yuan. The closing price on Friday was 56.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as last Friday.
4. US equities: Last Friday, the Dow rose 0.5% to 33869.27, down 0.17% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 0.22% to 4090.46, down 1.11% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.61% to 11718.12, down 2.41% for the week.
5. Europe: Germany's DAX30 fell 1.39% to 15307.98 on Friday, down 1.00% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.82% lower at 7129.73, down 1.44% for the week; The FTSE 100 fell 0.36% to 7882.45, down 0.24% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX April gold futures closed down 0.2% at 1874.5 US dollars/ounce, down 0.04% for the week.
7. Crude oil: last Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed up 2.13% at 79.72 USD/barrel, up 8.62% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 2.24% higher at $86.39/barrel, up 8.07% for the week.
·The credit has made a good start and set a record·
► Orient Securities: new loans of 4.9 trillion yuan in January, a record high in a single month. The year-on-year increase in loans was 922.7 billion yuan, mainly due to the increase in medium and long-term loans of enterprises by 1.4 trillion yuan, and the scale of the increase also reached a record high. On the whole, the total amount and structure of credit in January were better than the market expectations. On the one hand, the epidemic situation and the optimization and relaxation of real estate policies, the market expectations changed, and the economic boom rebounded; On the other hand, the policy is driven forward. The policy orientation of the 'drive forward' credit symposium in January and the project reserve last year were sufficient, and the pace of large and medium-sized banks' release was ahead of schedule. Looking ahead, the impact of the epidemic has receded, the policy has continued to develop and the demand for credit has substantially improved. It is expected that the good performance of credit will be sustainable.
► CICC: The strong credit release in January reflects a strong 'steady growth' strength, but the recovery progress of the real credit demand of the market-oriented entities remains to be further observed. It is expected that the game between 'stable growth' and 'weak demand' will continue to be the main line this year. Although the recovery of credit demand may not be smooth, it is expected that there will be a substantial inflection point within the year. The inflection point of credit demand has been substantially improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the following signals to judge the financing demand: 1) sales and land acquisition in the real estate market; 2) Whether the strength of infrastructure projects is maintained; 3) Recovery of consumer demand of residents; 4) Investment demand of non-state enterprises, etc.
► CITIC Securities: From the perspective of credit structure, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises are the main force of credit growth, but the medium and long-term loans of residents are still sluggish. In January, the new medium and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 1.4 trillion yuan year-on-year. Note financing increased by 591.5 billion yuan year-on-year. The increase in medium - and long-term loans of enterprises and the decrease in bill financing indicate that the credit in January is more used for fixed asset investment, which should have a better effect in promoting economic growth. However, the residents' willingness to expand the scale is still very low. The medium and long-term loans of residents increased by 519.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year. On the one hand, the real estate sales were poor and the scale of prepayment of housing loans was still large. On the other hand, because the base was high and the mortgage quota was insufficient at the end of 2021, the backlog of demand was released in January 2022.
► Ping An Securities: Although the credit growth was significant, the scale of government bond financing decreased year on year. Due to the 'dislocation' of government bond issuance in the same period last year and the earlier Spring Festival this year, the drag of government bond issuance on new social finance is short-term. It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2023 will be 7.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as last year. The stock financing scale of non-financial enterprises may gradually recover in the future, and it is expected to increase more in 2023. Recently, the reform of the capital market has been 'pushed forward', and the reform of the comprehensive registration system of the stock market has been officially launched, which helps to smooth the financing channels of enterprises; With the gradual recovery of China's economy, the performance rate of the A-share market in 2023 is probably higher than that in 2022, which also helps the recovery of the scale of corporate equity financing.