Financial attention
► GF Securities: Chinese shares have experienced the first stage of 'risk premium downward' valuation since November last year, and the valuation has been adjusted to close to the historical average level. Both A shares and Hong Kong shares need to wait for the 'confirmation of the data of ebb and flow'. The economic growth target of the two sessions has lowered the expectation of 'strong reality'. However, the low expected CPI and the unexpected social finance data make the market still tangled, A clearer clue to China's policies and profits needs to wait for the 'April decision'.
► Financial breakfast: hot spots keep coming out, track what you want to hear. Silicon Valley Bank has become the second largest bank to fail in the history of the United States. What was the beginning and end of the event? How should the US banking industry respond to this crisis? The market expects the Federal Reserve to turn its policy accordingly? How will the domestic market be affected? Go to the end of the article quickly to check today's financial secret tracking # Life and Death Gate of Silicon Valley Bank
Macroeconomics
1. Kang Yi, Director of the Bureau of Statistics, said he is confident that the overall economic performance will improve this year and achieve the expected growth target of about 5%. From the perspective of medium - and long-term development trend, China is still the largest developing country in the world, with broad development space; Judging from the situation this year, the market expectations have improved significantly and the positive factors of economic operation have increased. In recent years, the quality of China's statistical data has been significantly improved, but there are still statistical fraud and data fraud in some regions. We will strengthen statistical law enforcement, adhere to zero tolerance for statistical fraud, and fight when exposed.
2. Wang Junjin, Chairman of Shanghai Junyao: With the opening of the epidemic, the recovery of the entire aviation market is relatively good. The passenger rate is basically above 80%, and many routes are full. Since January this year, the international market has also been recovering. The flight volume of Jixiang Airlines basically recovered to the level of 2019. It is expected that the flight volume of Jixiang Airlines will exceed the same period of 2019 when the civil aviation season changes in summer and autumn, and may even increase by about 20%.
3. Nikkei News: Due to concerns about information disclosure, Japanese companies such as Softbank and Hitachi have begun to restrict the use of interactive AI services such as ChatGPT in business operations. Softbank last month used ChatGPT and other similar applications to warn employees not to enter the company's identifiable information or confidential data.
4. German Airport Association: The German airports in Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen will go on strike from the night shift on March 12 until midnight on March 13. The number of canceled flights may continue to increase, and 100000 passengers are expected to be affected. It is understood that the reason for the strike was that the management and airport security staff failed to reach an agreement on overtime pay.
5. South Korea's Ministry of Health and Welfare: By the end of last year, the number of national maternity centers in South Korea was 475, down 20.5% from 598 five years ago. The number of birth centers in South Korea has increased from 418 in 2009 to 612 in 2016, but has declined since 2017.
Real estate developments
1. First Finance and Economics: A number of Hong Kong developers have recently handed over their unsatisfactory 2022 performance reports. Old Hong Kong-funded developers such as Swire Real Estate, Sun Hung Kai Real Estate and New World Development all experienced performance fluctuations last year, and the rental income of commercial or office buildings fell. Now, with the comprehensive customs clearance of Hong Kong and the mainland and the vigorous economic boost policy, Hong Kong-funded developers are generally optimistic about the market trend in 2023.
2. CSCEC: The total amount of new contracts signed in January-February was 621.1 billion yuan, up 30.2% year on year. Among them, in terms of real estate business, contract sales amounted to 53.5 billion yuan, up 71.1% year on year; The contracted sales area was 2.72 million square meters, up 58.4%. During the reporting period, the newly purchased land reserve was 370000 square meters, and as of the end of the period, the land reserve was 88.27 million square meters.
Stock market inventory
1. CITIC Securities: The short-term volatility of the market stems from the contradiction between the expectation of rapid economic recovery and the reality of gradual economic recovery. Investors' expectation of the economy has reached a low point; The fastest period of the expected upward revision of the global liquidity tightening has passed, and the impact of the Silicon Valley banking dilemma on the domestic market is limited, and investors' concerns about overseas liquidity have reached a high point; The economic recovery is still in the early stage of instability. After the two sessions, it is the key time point for incremental policy information. It is expected that the turning point of the market expectation will occur, which will lead to an upward revision of sentiment and risk preference.
2. CICC: The A-share market is 'stable before it can go far', which may be characterized by volatility and adjustment in the short term. Some positive factors appeared at the beginning of March, but recently the risk appetite fell again due to the influence of internal and external factors. Under the recent high interest rate environment, the market has become increasingly worried about the risks of the US financial system and technology enterprises. The impact of peripheral risk events on the A-share market may be relatively limited. The A-share market is expected to show some resilience in the global market fluctuations. The short-term disturbance will not change the long-term situation, and the market will still maintain a positive view in the medium term.
3. China Mobile: It is expected that the dividend payout rate of the whole year in 2022 will be further increased than that of the previous year, and the profits distributed in cash in 2023 will be increased to more than 70% of the profits attributable to shareholders of the company in that year.
4. Trina Solar: It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in the first quarter of 2023 will be 1.3-18 billion yuan, an increase of 139.31% - 231.35% year on year. Benefiting from the significant increase in advanced production capacity, the sales proportion of high-power 210 series photovoltaic products increased significantly compared with the same period last year, the comprehensive cost of products decreased, and the profitability of photovoltaic products was effectively improved.
5. CITIC Securities: From February 17, 2022 to March 9, 2023, the shareholder Yuexiu Capital and its wholly-owned subsidiaries and persons acting in concert increased their shareholding in the company by 1.0405%.
6. TBEA: In January-February, its total operating revenue was about 17.632 billion yuan, up about 38.79% year on year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 3.636 billion yuan, up 73.22% year on year.
7. Praia: In January-February, it achieved a total operating revenue of about 790 million yuan, up about 25% year on year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 80 million yuan, up about 33% year on year. During the March 8th Festival, the sales of various brands achieved rapid growth, and the main brand Pelaia ranked first in terms of transaction value of Tmall Beauty.
8. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 6 new shares were issued, including 3 on the Shanghai Main Board, 1 on the Growth Enterprise Board and 2 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. They are United Water, Haitong Development, Sunergy, Future Electric, Anda Technology and Donghe New Materials.
9. Unlimited sales: This week, a total of 54 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 2.265 billion shares and a market value of 46.393 billion yuan. Among them, Softcom Power ranked first in the list of lifting ban with 11.066 billion yuan, and Dongyue Silicon Materials and Tengyuan Cobalt ranked second and third with 9.733 billion yuan and 5.356 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. China Fund News: Just after the cancellation of private placement qualification at the beginning of this year, Yitao Private Placement, owned by the late son of Stanley Ho, the 'gambling king' in Macao, has entered the private placement market again. Since March, 22 private equity funds have completed the registration and filing on the same day, and there are no registered products at present. The 22 private equity funds were all prompted by the red letter of the China Association for Science and Technology, and there was no fund management scale within one year from the date of completing the registration procedures.
2. CCTV News: On the evening of March 11 local time, the French Senate voted to raise the retirement age from two years to 64 years old by passing the retirement system reform plan proposed by the Marcon government.
3. Disney CEO: The ticket price increase of Disneyland may be 'too radical'. In the past 50 years, the prices of Disney World and Disney theme parks have increased by 3871%, up nearly 40 times.
Industry observation
1. Wang Guanghua, Minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources, said that measures must be taken to strengthen the exploration and development of domestic minerals, increase reserves and increase production, and ensure the safety of the supply chain of energy resources and important industrial chains. First, we will launch a new round of strategic breakthroughs in prospecting. Second, we hope to further improve the relevant policies to attract social capital to invest in mineral development. Third, further strengthen scientific and technological support for mineral exploration.
2. Gao Zhidan, Director of the General Administration of Sport, said that in the post-Winter Olympics period, we will continue to implement the strategy of 'expanding the ice and snow sports in the south, expanding the west and moving east', and continue to consolidate and expand the achievements of 'driving 300 million people to participate in the ice and snow sports'. First, we should explore a new mode and path for ice and snow sports to enter the campus. The second is to further improve the public service level of ice and snow sports. Third, we should keep the bottom line of safety and establish various measures and systems for safety production in the whole industry of ice and snow sports.
3. CCTV News: In 2022, 3.83 million hectares of afforestation, 3.214 million hectares of grass planting and improvement, and 1.8473 million hectares of sandy and rocky desertification will be controlled nationwide. The forest area is 231 million hectares, and the forest coverage rate is 24.02%. Through continuous promotion of afforestation, China's land greening has achieved remarkable results.
4. Medical insurance bureau: The medical insurance department shall not refuse to include the social medical institutions into the designated medical insurance institutions on the grounds that the number of designated medical insurance institutions is full and other non-medical service capabilities. Qualified private medical institutions can be included in the designated management of medical insurance by applying for signing medical insurance agreements.
5. China Manned Space Engineering Office: The China Space Station has been fully completed, and the 'three-step' development strategy of China's manned space engineering has become a reality from a concept. The Shenzhou 15 astronauts plan to return to the ground in June. The Tianzhou-6 cargo spaceship has completed the relevant work before leaving the factory and is scheduled to launch at Wenchang Space Launch Site in May. The crew of astronauts who have carried out two manned flights has been selected and is carrying out mission training.
6. Department of Commerce of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region: In January-February, the import and export volume of Guangxi's foreign trade reached 102.2 billion yuan, up 46.5% year on year. Among the major trading partners, Guangxi's foreign trade volume to RCEP member countries, the Middle East countries, Africa and Hong Kong, China, has increased significantly, of which the import and export volume to the Middle East countries is 9.38 billion yuan, up 175.7% year on year.
7. Feng Xingya, CEO of GAC Group: He is very optimistic about the Indian market. He went to investigate the Indian market three years ago, but because of the COVID-19, he has no chance to go there again in the past three years. He will arrange another visit to India as soon as possible. Product development needs to be carried out according to the situation of the Indian market, and it is also necessary to carry out production in India in the future.
8. Interface news: It is reported that the Saudi public investment fund is close to reaching a deal to purchase Boeing jets, with an order value of 35 billion US dollars. It is expected to involve up to 100 or more aircraft, which may include confirmation of orders and future procurement options. These aircraft will be used in the fleet of Saudi Arabia's newly established national airline.
Insight Economics
1. First Finance: The UK's largest commercial street bank was given a 24-hour deadline to save the UK's Silicon Valley Bank from bankruptcy, because the Bank of England was preparing to bring it into bankruptcy proceedings. It is reported that loan institutions, including Barclays Bank and Lloyds Bank Group, have been asked to consider whether they can make a takeover offer for Silicon Valley Bank UK Branch.
2. Interface news: Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund officially launched the new national airline 'Riyadh Airlines', and Tony Douglas will be the CEO of the company. The airline's goal is to reach more than 100 destinations worldwide by 2030.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 6.9653 at 16:30, up 0.0660% and down 0.9435% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.9655, up 0.0158% and down 0.7784% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 14 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.217 billion yuan, up 25.87% month-on-month. So far, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6572.
3. Shanghai Environment Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 203000 tons, with a total turnover of 11508600 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 56.00 yuan/ton, with no increase or decrease.
4. US equities: Last Friday, the Dow closed down 1.07% at 31909.64, down 4.44% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 1.76% lower at 11138.89, down 4.71% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 1.45% lower at 3861.59, down 4.55% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 closed down 1.67% at 7748.35, down 2.5% for the week; Germany's DAX30 fell 1.31% to 15427.97, down 0.97% for the week; France CAC40 closed 1.3% lower at 7220.67, down 1.73% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX April gold futures closed 1.78% higher at $1867.2/ounce, up 0.68% for the week.
7. Crude oil: last Friday, WTI April crude oil futures rose 1.27% to 76.68 US dollars/barrel, up 3.76% for the week; Brent May crude oil futures closed 0.14% higher at 82.78 USD/barrel, up 3.68% for the week.
·Life and Death Gate of Silicon Valley Bank·
► Securities Times: On March 10 local time, the Bank of Silicon Valley of the United States was closed by the financial supervision department due to its insolvency. This is the largest bank bankrupt in the United States since the financial crisis in 2008. The market is worried that the crisis may spread in the banking industry. Up to now, 16 companies have announced their capital status in Silicon Valley banks. The industry said that if the banks in Silicon Valley could not be rescued in time, 80% of the start-ups supported by venture capital would be affected to varying degrees. Relevant regulatory filing documents show that as of December last year, more than 95% of deposits in Silicon Valley banks had not been insured, and many of these depositors were start-up companies. The market is worried that because enterprises may not be able to pay wages this month, this will in turn trigger a wave of large-scale closures and layoffs in the technology industry.
► Industrial Securities: among American banks, all banks with high proportion of held-to-maturity projects and small and medium-sized banks with high proportion of available-for-sale projects may have relatively high risks. If the demand deposits of the corresponding banks are relatively large and the growth rate is fast in the past two years, the risk level will also be higher. In order to focus on systemic financial risks, we mainly focus on the above proportion of listed banks with total assets of more than US $50 billion. If the bank can hold the bonds in the project for a long time to maturity, it can gradually absorb the floating loss and avoid the erosion of the floating loss on the core tier-one capital. However, the average duration of project assets held to maturity by all banks is more than 3-5 years.
► Open source securities: Silicon Valley banks suffered from liquidity crisis and eventually went bankrupt, which made the market worried that the risk might spread to other larger banks, and might eventually force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy, but it may be difficult to happen at present. A crisis occurred in Silicon Valley banks because their customers were mainly high-risk start-ups, which triggered market panic; Second, the leverage ratio of the US financial sector is relatively low, the capital adequacy ratio is high, and the possibility of a large-scale debt crisis is relatively low; Third, from the perspective of liquidity, the amount of ONRRP funds of the Federal Reserve is still large, and the FRA-OIS spread has been in a low position, indicating that the current overall liquidity is still relatively abundant; The timely intervention of the four FDICs also helps to effectively handle and isolate the relevant risks and prevent the further spread of panic.
► CITIC Securities: At present, Silicon Valley banks have not been involved in the debt default of the residential sector and the corporate sector. The risk is more concentrated in the US dollar PE/VC and some entrepreneurial enterprises, which may have a relatively large impact on the US technology sector and the venture capital ecosystem. However, in the past two years, China's local venture capital industry has significantly reduced its dependence on US dollar funds. According to the statistics of Zero2IPO, among the newly raised RMB fund LPs in China's equity investment market in 2022, the contribution of state-owned holding and state-owned equity participants has accounted for 73.2%, showing a clear feature of state-owned assets leading industrial upgrading and transformation. The liquidity dilemma of banks in Silicon Valley is not enough to trigger the risk and financial turbulence of large financial institutions, and its impact on PE/VC industry and entrepreneurial enterprises is also extremely limited.