Financial attention
► Haitong Securities: From the perspective of the economic cycle, the domestic economy has entered the early stage of recovery from the late recession. From the perspective of the stock market cycle, the fact that A-shares have not reached a record low for half a year means that the transition from bear to bull has been confirmed. The current market is still in the early stages of a bull market. A bull market can be divided into three stages. The first stage is the gestation and preparation period, with profits falling and valuation repairing. In the second phase of the full outbreak, Davis double-clicked. The third stage is the crazy period of foam. It is expected that the first main line of the year will be the digital economy, and the twists and turns in the second quarter will be a layout opportunity to eliminate the false and retain the true. Attention will be paid to the golden opportunities and structural highlights of consumption.
Macroeconomics
1. Financial Headline App: Several oil producing countries have announced voluntary cuts in crude oil production from May to the end of 2023. Saudi Arabia announced a reduction of 500000 barrels per day; Kuwait announced that it would cut 128000 barrels per day; The United Arab Emirates announced that it would cut 144000 barrels per day; Iraq announced that it would cut 211000 barrels per day; Algeria announced a reduction of 48000 barrels per day; Kazakhstan announced a reduction of 78000 barrels per day; Russia announced a reduction of 500000 barrels per day; Oman announced that it would cut 40000 barrels per day.
2. Economic Daily: Recently, a number of well-known foreign enterprise executives have come to China intensively to investigate and express their positive intention to deeply layout the Chinese market, conveying a clear signal that 'the Chinese market is not an option, but a necessary option.'. In the current context of China's economic recovery, we should seize the opportunity to effectively implement various support policies in an orderly and effective manner, leaving high-quality foreign capital in stock and introducing more high-quality foreign capital.
3. The General Administration of Market Supervision and Administration: Deploy and carry out the special law enforcement action against unfair competition in 2022, focus on key points, standardize competition, and promote the construction of a unified national market. Special law enforcement actions highlight five key areas, focusing on livelihood and the competitive order of new consumption, important commodity and factor markets, and the new economy. Highlight key industries, focusing on issues of chaos in industries such as early childhood education, intermediaries, third-party evaluation, and medical beauty hair transplants. We will severely crack down on unfair competition practices such as counterfeiting and confusion, 'word of mouth' marketing, commercial bribery, and 'one out of two.'.
4. Shanghai Railway Bureau: On April 1st, the Yangtze River Delta Railway sent 2.87 million passengers, setting a new record for daily passenger volume since this year; Cargo loading completed 13915 vehicles and delivered 615000 tons of cargo, setting a new high in the number of single day loading in recent years. In addition, since the launch of the Yangtze River Delta railway spring outing transportation (March 10th to April 1st), more than 48 million passengers have been safely sent, an increase of 10.8% compared to the same period in 2019.
5. CCTV News: Millions of Americans are at risk of losing Medicaid insurance in the coming months. As the national emergency and public health emergency of the COVID-19 in the United States ended on March 31, the states will begin to redefine the recipients of the federal medical assistance plan from April 1, which will put millions of Americans at risk of losing health insurance.
6. South Korea's Ministry of Land and Transport: It plans to increase the number of international flights to 204 by September, and increase the number of flights to 4075 per week, which is equivalent to 88.2% of the pre epidemic level in 2019. Considering that the number of flights to Japan and China once accounted for half of the total number of international flights before the epidemic, priority will be given to supporting the resumption of flights to Japan and China. In September, the number of flights returned to 92% and 87% of the level before the epidemic, respectively.
Stock Market Inventory
1. CITIC Securities: Looking forward to the second quarter, the domestic fundamental recovery is expected to remain relatively strong, and structural policies are expected to continue to increase; Near the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the improvement in liquidity expectations will also drive up the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market; The gradual easing of Sino US relations will also be conducive to the warming of market sentiment. Combining the current strong relative valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks and the earnings growth forecast for 2023, the Hong Kong stock market in the second quarter may usher in the best market of the year.
2. GF Securities: This round of 'AI+' is similar to 'Mobile Internet plus' in 2013. (1) The first wave of upward fluctuations increased but the trend remained unchanged; (2) In similar markets, the first correction in the market is not significant; (3) In the medium to long term, the market space is large, the time span is long, and 'profit confirmation' is important but not a decisive condition for the sustainability of the market. This round of 'AI+' market may only show sharp corners.
3. CITIC Securities: Under the market environment of upward revision of fundamentals, valuation, and risk preference resonance, A-shares are expected to open the second key long window of the year in April; The performance driven financial report will replace the theme hype and become the main line of the stage. It is suggested to focus on the new energy in manufacturing, infrastructure, and the subdivisions of the the Belt and Road export; In terms of the annual main line, innovative drugs, medical infrastructure, and science and innovation enterprises that benefit from the inflection point of global liquidity will rotate in the second quarter. Under the division of the digital economy industry, upstream chips, cloud computing infrastructure, and other segments with supported performance will benefit more; The annual main line and the periodic main line will relay and rotate.
4. Securities Times: Rumors of the resignation of core investment and research personnel from multiple 10 billion quantitative private placement companies have recently exploded in the private placement circle. The industry responded that there were indeed individual investment research departures at the end of last year or early this year, but the impact on strategy and performance was not significant; There have also been private placements that have denied rumors of leaving. The core competitiveness of quantitative private placement is strategic iterative ability, and the loss of investment and research talents can have an impact on the company's development, especially core positions.
5. China Securities News: The latest survival status of the 'three giants' in fund sales has surfaced. Overall, in 2022, the sales scale of agent funds decreased, and the revenue of Ant Fund and Tiantian Fund, both fund sales agencies, decreased. The revenue of China Merchants Bank's agent funds decreased the most year-on-year.
6. GCL Energy Technology: The holding subsidiary Xinyu Technology will contribute 300 million yuan to increase the capital of Xinglin Technology, and after the increase, it will hold 10% of the equity of Xinglin Technology. Xinglin Technology has signed a contract to build a 10 billion scale liquid cooled super intelligent computing center in Anhui Province to provide computing services for the R&D and training of domestic large models and the intelligent upgrading of 'AI+' industries in various industries.
7. Nanjing Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd.: Xinye Iron and Steel Group plans to increase its capital by 13.58 billion yuan, holding 55.25% of its equity and becoming a controlling shareholder of Nanjing Iron and Steel Group; On the same day, Nangang Group decided to exercise the preemptive right to purchase 60% of the equity of Nanjing Steel Union from Fosun shareholders. Upon completion of the transaction, Nangang Group will hold 100% of the equity of Nanjing Steel Union and become an indirect controlling shareholder of the company. The actual controller of the company will be changed from Guo Guangchang to CITIC China.
8. Huace Film and Television: In 2022, it achieved a revenue of 2.473 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.05%; The net profit achieved was 405 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.15%.
9. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 10 new shares were issued, including 1 on the Shanghai Main Board, 3 on the Growth Enterprise Board, 4 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and 2 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. They are Hengshang Energy Conservation, Sentai Shares, Everbright Tongchuang, North Changlong, Huashu High Technology, Sochen Technology, Qizhong Technology, Gaohua Technology, Wangcheng Technology, and Deer Chemical.
10. Unlimited sales: This week, a total of 26 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 1.326 billion shares lifted, and the market value of the lifted shares reached 23.875 billion yuan. Among them, Minglida ranked first in the ban lifting list with 6.056 billion yuan, while Jiangsu Thorpe and Zhongke Chuangda ranked second and third with 5.667 billion yuan and 3.261 billion yuan, respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. China Securities News: With the disclosure of the 2022 annual report, the financial technology development of listed banks has also surfaced. In 2022, banks continued to promote digital transformation, with investment in financial technology increased by multiple banks, and the proportion of financial technology talents further increased. Among them, ICBC has 36000 financial technology talents, and Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank have more than 10000 financial technology talents.
2. Academician Sun Shigang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: Existing lithium ion batteries face four major challenges. One is that resources such as lithium severely limit their large-scale energy storage applications. Currently, 70% of lithium in China relies on imports; The second is that the energy density is close to the theoretical limit, and lithium ion batteries are far from meeting significant development needs, limiting multi-scenario applications; The third is the frequent occurrence of safety accidents; The fourth is insufficient adaptability to extreme environments.
3. Financial breakfast: Hot spots keep coming out, tracking what you want to hear. What is the reason behind the recent increase in global 'de dollarization'? Is the US dollar about to be quickly replaced as an international reserve? Is 'oil yuan' really coming? What types of assets will benefit from this? Financial friends, quickly move to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # 'When is' de dollarization 'going on?
Industry observation
1. Hainan Province: In the first quarter of this year, the province is expected to receive 26.8 million tourists, an increase of 20.2% year-on-year; The total tourism revenue reached 53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Hainan's tourism industry has achieved a strong recovery.
2. Wuhan Metro: On April 1, the passenger traffic volume (including transfer) of Wuhan urban rail transit network reached 4.6692 million passengers, breaking the record of 4.6195 million passengers on March 31, creating a record high for two consecutive days.
3. Wang Qing from the National Research Center: According to the prediction of the development trend of smart cars in the future, the number of semiconductors used will be 5-6 times that of current fuel vehicles; In terms of strategic metal minerals, the global automotive power is highly dependent on foreign countries. By 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be around 17 million, and by 2030, the market share will exceed 90%, about 32 million.
4. Cailian News Agency: The nickel industry may gradually return to rationality in the future, led by fundamentals. However, the current strong expectations of large nickel demand stainless steel factories have not yet materialized, and the trend of 'abandoning nickel' for power batteries and energy storage batteries is gradually emerging. It is difficult to be optimistic about the future of the nickel industry. For the current dilemma of stainless steel plants, industry insiders said that stainless steel production should be reduced, raw material prices should be adjusted, and then the expectations of all parties in the industrial chain should be adjusted to achieve a new balanced cycle.
5. Interface News: After the year, the prices of traditional Chinese medicinal materials have increased significantly, and the transactions in multiple drug markets are hot. Due to the high price increase of medicinal materials, the procurement frequency of traditional Chinese medicine factories and herbal medicine factories has also significantly decreased compared to the same period in previous years. According to industry insiders, the current purchasing situation of manufacturers is weaker than in previous years, with a decrease of about 30% to 40% compared to the same period last year.
6. Xinhuanet: In recent years, some 'third-party evaluation' have resorted to false propaganda and commercial testing, playing tricks to attract traffic and quickly 'liquidate', not only damaging consumer rights, but also disrupting the market environment. Industry insiders believe that in the face of the actual needs of consumers, 'third-party evaluation' should not deviate from the track of fairness and authenticity, and there is an urgent need to standardize development and return to its roots.
7. Shanghai Securities News: In February, China's mobile network IPv6 accounted for 50.08%, achieving a historic breakthrough in mobile network IPv6 traffic exceeding IPv4 traffic for the first time, marking a new milestone in promoting IPv6 scale deployment and application in China.
8. Information: The Spanish based biotechnology company Teferio is working hard to build a facility that is expected to become the world's largest insect farm by 2024. Once completed, the annual output of the facility can reach 100000 tons, and the products can be used as raw materials for the animal feed industry, pet food industry, and agriculture, as well as for the biological industry that produces cosmetics and textiles.
Insight Economics
1. Thailand: From the beginning of this year to March 27, Thailand received 6.15 million international tourists, exceeding the established target of 6 million. In 2023, Thailand will receive at least 30 million foreign tourists and spend about 1.5 trillion Baht on foreign tourists.
2. Germany: Starting from May 1st, a monthly public transport ticket with a unified fare of 49 euros will be introduced nationwide. Monthly ticket pre-sales are expected to start on April 3rd. The new monthly ticket will 'end' the 'chaos' of fragmented local governments and overlapping transportation fare structures. The Senate finally approved this measure on March 31st, clearing the way for the transportation department to begin selling unified monthly tickets.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 6.8713 at 16:30, up 0.0989% and down 0.0845% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.8717, up 0.2453% and down 0.5017% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, five new listed companies were added, with a transaction value of 1.031 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.97% compared to the previous month. So far, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6573.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total trading volume of carbon emission quotas in the national carbon market was 796700 tons, with a total turnover of 39.9938 million yuan. Friday's closing price was 56.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as last Friday's closing price.
4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow rose 1.26% to 33274.15, up 3.22% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 1.44% to 4109.31, up 3.48% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 1.74% to 12221.91, up 3.37% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.69% to 15628.84, up 4.49% for the week; France's CAC40 index rose 0.81% to 7322.39, up 4.38% for the week; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.15% to 7631.74, up 3.06% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX June gold futures closed 0.57% lower at $1986.2 per ounce, down 0.77% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed 1.75% higher at $75.67 per barrel, up 9.25% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 0.63% higher at $79.77 per barrel, up 6.37% for the week.
·When is 'de dollarization' going on·
► Industrial Securities: Recently, the signs of global 'de dollarization' have become increasingly evident. Brazil and ASEAN have both begun to consider settling trade in their own currencies. Previously, Iraq stated that it would allow trade with China to be settled in RMB, Saudi Arabia stated that it was open to trade settlement in currencies other than the US dollar, and China and France reached the first purchase order of imported liquefied natural gas to be settled in RMB. All of these have caused the market to start thinking about the safety of US dollar assets. When geopolitical conflicts arise, investors find that the original financial rules can disappear overnight. This concern may have begun to shake investors' confidence in the current US dollar dominated global financial system.
► 21 Finance: The current instability of the US financial system and economic risks are also the reasons why countries are accelerating their flight from the US dollar. As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, small and medium-sized banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank, have experienced a crisis phenomenon, which inhibits the stability of the United States financial system and poses a high degree of uncertainty risk; The inhibitory effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on the country's economy is also gradually emerging. The current financial instability has also impacted investment and consumption, increasing the risk of economic recession in the United States, which in turn will affect the financial system.
► Economic Daily: The United States overdrafts the credit of the United States dollar as a major international currency, especially the risk of cyclical fluctuations in the global market caused by the dollar, which has already led more and more countries to confront the chronic disease of the dollar and seek countermeasures. The voices and actions that triggered 'de dollarization' were not accidental. The role and position of the US dollar in the current global monetary system should be examined with a calm and objective attitude. The US dollar ranks first in global trade settlements, central bank foreign exchange reserves, global debt pricing, and global capital flows. Although the position of the US dollar in the global monetary system has continued to decline in recent years, it is also important to note that the reserve position of the US dollar is difficult to be quickly replaced.
► Tianfeng Securities: The oil dollar circulation has always been an important financial force in the field of international finance and trade. Currently, countries that have been subject to SWIFT sanctions, including Russia and Iran, have had to consider using payment methods other than US dollars. At the same time, oil producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, are increasingly close to China, and the future trend of using RMB for oil trade settlement is expected to become more widespread. It is difficult to estimate the size of oil in RMB. If China's total oil trade in 2022 is estimated to be about 240 billion yuan per year, oil producing countries will have to consider how to spend the yuan in the future. However, given Russia's financial difficulties, the possibility of using oil and RMB for a large amount of assets in the near future needs to be discounted.
► Guotai Jun'an: The impact of the US banking crisis is still ongoing, with the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in May decreasing, and the upward pressure on gold and silver prices releasing. The five-year interest rate of US treasury bond bonds remained at 1.2%, which was good for gold and silver prices as the real interest rate gradually peaked. At the same time, the global process of de dollarization, represented by the BRICS countries and other emerging markets, has accelerated. Under the influence of the loose dollar system, the US dollar index weakened to 102.6 last week, bringing about the demand for central banks to increase their holdings of gold. In March, China's gold reserves increased by 14.93 tons to 2025.44 tons. Since January, China's central bank's gold reserves have continuously increased, with a cumulative increase of 77.13 tons. The precious metal market is expected to accelerate, optimistic about the performance of gold prices.