Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. CCTV News: In the next 10 days, there will be frequent rainfall processes in areas such as Jiangnan and South China. Compared to the same period in many years, some areas in southern Jiangsu and Anhui have accumulated more precipitation. According to the development of the flood situation, the National Flood Control Administration launched a Level 4 emergency response for Guangxi and Jiangsu on June 18th, continuing to maintain the Level 4 emergency response for Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou.
2. Overseas network: North India has been suffering from extreme heat waves recently. At least 98 people have died in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in three days due to the high temperature. The highest temperature in Ballia, Uttar Pradesh, on June 16 was 42.2 degrees Celsius, 4.7 degrees higher than the normal level. The highest temperature in Patna, the capital of Bihar, is 44.7 degrees Celsius, while that in Shekhpura is 45.1 degrees Celsius.
3. CCTV News: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida and other places in the southern Southern United States continue to experience high temperatures. More than 40 million people in the United States are facing high temperature warnings. Many places in the Southern United States along the Gulf of Mexico suffered from high temperature on June 17. The Apparent temperature of Houston, Texas, Brownsville and other places reached 46 to 49 degrees Celsius.
4. Air China Ocean Shipping: It is expected that the global GDP growth rate will be 2.9% and 3.1% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. At the same time, the capacity of new Bulk carrier ships is increasing slowly, and the proportion of new ship orders to the capacity is at a new historical low. According to Clarksons' estimation, the growth rate of the bulk carrier fleet in 2023 is only 1.8%, and the proportion of orders to the capacity is only 7%, which is the lowest value since 1996. Based on supply and demand, it is expected that the recovery and growth of the bulk shipping market can be expected.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.63% at 3273.33 points, up 1.30% for the week; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 1.11% at 11306.53 points, up 4.75% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed up 1.44% at 2270.06 points, up 5.93% for the week.
2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.07% to 20040.37, up 3.35% weekly; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 0.84% at 4233.49, up 7.61% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 0.89% at 6833 points, up 3.70% for the week.
3. CITIC Securities: Since June, the market has been dominated by policy expectations and Sino US relations. Market sentiment and economic expectations are at the bottom, and the response to economic data is passive. It is difficult to achieve radical expectations for policy implementation. Sino US relations have eased briefly, and the macro liquidity environment has improved. The market is at the bottom of the fluctuation range in the second half of the year. Under the resonance of institutional position adjustment, policy game and theme trading rotation at the end of the quarter, it is expected that the market will still fluctuate significantly in the middle of the year, The importance of performance will gradually increase, and the allocation will adhere to performance as the main focus, taking into account the main policy line.
4. CICC: Based on the benchmark judgment of slow overseas economic recession and mild recovery of China's economy, it holds a neutral to positive view on the A-share market in the second half of the year, and the index still has some upward space compared to its current position. Looking at it now, 1) China's growth recovery is expected to continue, and policy support remains crucial. 2) The profitability of listed companies is expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year. Industry allocation, with short-term growth as the main focus, and consumption in the medium term.
5. China Fund News: As of June 15th, there were 432 QDII funds in the entire market, with an average return of 7.67%; Among them, 317 have achieved positive returns this year, accounting for over 73%. More than ten QDII funds have achieved returns of over 40% this year, mainly investing in US technology stocks, such as Guangfa Global Selected RMB and Huaxia Global Technology Pioneer.
6. First Finance: Against the backdrop of lower deposit interest rates, the premiums of life insurance companies listed in May achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. The monthly premium income of the six listed life insurance companies in May reached 130.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. Behind the double-digit increase in premium income, on the one hand, there is a significant increase in the attractiveness of savings insurance types with a predetermined interest rate of 3.5% against the backdrop of a decrease in deposit interest rates, and on the other hand, there is a concentrated release of demand due to the expectation that the predetermined interest rate of personal insurance will soon be lowered.
7. China Fund News: Since the beginning of this year, 47 fund companies have subscribed to a total of over 45 billion yuan, an increase of over 50% year-on-year. Among them, 10 fund companies have a subscription scale of over 1 billion yuan, and two companies have a subscription scale of over 10 billion yuan, far ahead. Among them, Caitong Fund has participated in over 90 fixed increase projects for listed companies, with a total subscription size of 11.969 billion yuan, ranking first in both quantity and scale; Next is Nord Fund, with a total subscription size of 11.472 billion yuan.
8. China Fund News: Following the launch of AI fund managers for private funds, public funds have recently officially launched AI traders. Xingzheng Global recently announced that its AI traders have officially launched, becoming the first fund company to apply AI technology to the field of fund trading. It is learned from the industry that many asset management companies are actively promoting the application of AI, not only in the trading field, but also in the intelligent investment research analysis, industrial chain Knowledge graph and other fields.
9. Satellite Chemistry: The company plans to invest in the construction of alpha olefins in Xuwei New Area, Lianyungang（ α- Olefins) Comprehensive Utilization of High end New Materials Industrial Park Project. The total investment of this project is approximately 25.7 billion yuan.
10. New share subscription: This week, there were a total of 5 new share subscriptions, including 1 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and 4 on the Growth Enterprise Board, including Xindong Lianke, Renxin New Materials, Mingyang Electric, Jinyang Co., Ltd., and Haoen Automobile and Electric.
11. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 84 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 6.058 billion shares lifted and a market value of 67.59 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Southern Airlines ranked first on the lifting list with 15.26 billion yuan, while Guorui Technology and Sanan Optoelectronics ranked second and third with 8.720 billion yuan and 7.04 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. Hong Kong Stock Exchange: On June 19th, the 'Hong Kong dollar RMB dual counter model' was officially launched on the Hong Kong stock market, providing issuers and investors with a choice of Hong Kong dollar and RMB denominated stocks. At present, a total of 24 dual counter securities have been approved, with Hong Kong dollar counter transactions accounting for approximately 40% of the daily average trading volume in the Hong Kong market.
2. Musk: US President Biden has called for tax increases on the super rich, but the result of doing so will only harm middle and low-income groups. Agree that carefully designed tax avoidance plans should be made illegal, but doing so will make many donors feel uneasy, so they will only see the words, but will not take action. Those who will actually be forced to bear the burden of excess government spending are middle and low-income individuals, as they cannot evade payroll taxes.
Industry Observation
1. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of June 17, the total area of winter wheat harvested in China has exceeded 297 million acres, with a harvest progress of over 95%. In the third summer of this year, various regions took the initiative to cope with the impact of the weather, scientifically and efficiently coordinated the dispatch of agricultural machinery, carried out emergency operations to seize the sky and time, and orderly promoted the operations of harvesting, drying, and drying. Wheat harvests in Sichuan, Hubei, Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu and other regions have successively succeeded.
2. General Administration of Customs: In 2022, the import and export scale of China's cross-border e-commerce exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 2.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The import and export scale of China's cross-border e-commerce accounts for 4.9% of the total import and export value of national goods trade. It mainly presents new trends such as 'new highs in import and export scale, more diversified trading partners, further increase in the proportion of consumer goods, and obvious leading effects in business development'.
3. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the world's automobile industry will further develop towards electrification, and new energy vehicles will become the mainstream. The Chinese government has introduced a series of policies to support the development of new energy vehicles. The original layout of the automotive industry is a relatively balanced industrial layout across various regions. China's automobile industry still needs to consider the spatial rationality of its industrial layout and stabilize the regional economic structure through a reasonable layout of the manufacturing industry.
4. JD: The number of new products, brands, and categories launched this year has significantly increased, and the contribution rate of new product growth to overall sales has increased by over 30% year-on-year. During the '618' period, the sales of fresh air health air conditioners in the county and town markets increased by 86% year-on-year. The consumer demand in the sinking market is converging with that of high-end cities, and is increasingly showing new trends such as diversity, individuality, and self satisfaction.
5. Taobao: Short videos have become a new important driving force during the 618 period this year. During the promotion period, the number of merchants investing in short videos increased by 55%, content influencers and entrepreneurs increased by 200%, and the number of users browsing short videos every day increased by 113%. As a new way for Taobao merchants to reach consumers, the business opportunities brought by short videos have significantly increased year-on-year.
6. Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of Longji Green Energy: Photovoltaics have not only become the fastest growing renewable energy source, but also the most economical power source in most countries around the world. The global photovoltaic industry is ushering in the terawatt era. With the increasingly prominent issues of global climate change and energy security, 'carbon neutrality' has become a global consensus, and photovoltaic is expected to become the main energy source for future 'carbon neutrality'.
7. Lighthouse Professional Edition: As of 15:30 on June 18th, the total pre-sale box office (including spot releases) of the 2023 Dragon Boat Festival new film has exceeded 30 million. The pre-sale box office of 'Disappearing She' exceeded 14.395 million yuan, while 'I Love You!' ranked second with a box office of 11.613 million yuan, achieving a breakthrough lead.
Insight Economics
1. Surging news: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has arrived in Beijing on the morning of June 18, starting a two-day visit to China. This is Antony Blinken's first visit to China as Secretary of State, and it is also the highest level American official to visit China since October 2018. Antony Blinken is expected to meet with several senior Chinese officials on the 18th.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1168, up 0.5408% and up 0.1025% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1289, up 0.2798%, and down 0.2447% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 5 new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.143 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.88% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6467. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 25.605 billion yuan.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 471700 tons, with a total trading volume of 27029100 yuan and a closing price of 57.80 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.2%.
4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed 0.32% lower at 34299.12 points, with a weekly increase of 1.25%; The Nasdaq fell 0.68% to 13689.57 points, with a weekly increase of 3.25%; The S&P 500 closed 0.37% lower at 4409.59, up 2.6% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.19% higher at 7642.72 points, up 1.06% for the week; The German DAX30 closed up 0.41% at 16357.63 points, up 2.56% for the week; France CAC40 closed up 1.34% at 7388.65 points, up 2.43% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX August gold futures closed up 0.03% at $1971.2 per ounce, down 0.30% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI July crude oil futures closed up 1.64% at $71.78 per barrel, up 2.3% for the week; Brent August crude oil futures closed 1.24% higher at $76.61 per barrel, up 2.4% for the week.
·Peak season summer protection power supply·
► Everbright Securities: Since the beginning of summer, the temperature in southern China has continued to rise, the power load has increased significantly, and the peak of power consumption in various regions has advanced. On May 31st, the electricity load of Guangzhou Power Grid exceeded 20 million kilowatts for the first time this year, reaching 21.151 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of over 20%; The daily electricity load of Shenzhen Power Grid also reached a new high this year, reaching 20.54 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, 45 days ahead of the 2022 electricity load breaking the 20 million kilowatts mark. In addition, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other regions broke through the historical peak of electricity consumption in the same period of previous years in May this year, and the peak of electricity consumption arrived earlier. It is expected that during the peak summer season this year, the electricity load in the five southern provinces and regions will continue to rise.
► Guosheng Securities: If extreme high temperature weather occurs for a long period of time in a wide range this summer, the maximum power load of the country may increase by nearly 100 million kilowatts compared with 2022. With the high proportion of new energy access and the rigid growth of electricity demand during peak hours, it is expected that the electricity balance will be difficult to meet during the peak summer period, and there is still a high probability of a load gap. Therefore, in the recent East China region, the National Energy Administration has held the first cross provincial large-scale power outage emergency drill, and it is also the largest, widest, and most targeted joint emergency drill conducted so far for public power emergencies. This is enough to highlight the tense situation of electricity supply and demand during the peak summer this year, and the urgent need for electricity supply guarantee.
► Shenwan Hongyuan: The continuous power shortage problem in recent years has exposed problems such as insufficient system reserve rate in some regions of China and declining power supply capacity in peak hours. Power cut and power restriction directly affect enterprise production, and to a certain extent, help to prolong industrial and commercial energy storage demand. In the past, China's electricity consumption was biased towards a planned nature, and when the power supply capacity was insufficient, orderly electricity consumption was usually adopted, making energy storage difficult to play its role. The new version of the demand response management method proposes that orderly electricity use will be activated when electricity safety cannot be guaranteed even after the demand side response. On the one hand, industrial and commercial energy storage can participate in demand response to obtain additional benefits and improve economic efficiency; More importantly, the large-scale promotion of demand side response marks the possibility of using market-oriented methods such as economic incentives to determine the order of electricity consumption, and the important role of energy storage in solving power shortages and ensuring industrial and commercial production can be played.
Xinda Securities: After multiple rounds of tense power supply and demand conflicts in China, the power sector is expected to experience profit improvement and value revaluation. In the tense situation of power supply and demand contradiction, the peak value of coal-fired power is prominent; With the continuous promotion of power marketization reform, the electricity price trend is expected to rise steadily and slightly, the power Spot market and auxiliary service market mechanisms are expected to continue to be promoted, and the capacity compensation price and other mechanisms are expected to be introduced. The construction of new power systems under the dual carbon target may continue to rely on the abundance and investment of system regulation methods. In addition, with the increase of the National Development and Reform Commission's efforts to ensure the supply of electricity and coal, the actual performance rate of the electricity and coal long-term cooperation is expected to increase marginally, and the cost side of coal and electricity enterprises is relatively controllable. Looking ahead, the performance of power operators is expected to significantly improve.