Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. China Macroeconomic Forum: Currently, China's economic recovery is in a critical period of transition from the stage of social order and transaction repair to the stage of balance sheet repair. It is expected that the actual year-on-year growth rate for the first to fourth quarters will be 4.5%, 7.7%, 4.5%, and 5.9%, respectively; The cumulative year-on-year growth rate is 4.5%, 6.2%, 5.6%, and 5.7%, which means the economic growth rate in the first half of the year was 6.2%.
2. State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: On June 25th, the on-site promotion meeting for state-owned enterprise reform in Northeast China was held in Shenyang. The three northeastern provinces and the Inner Mongolia will also jointly hold a symposium with large domestic enterprises for the first time, and hold a project signing ceremony. It is estimated that the total signed investment will exceed 500 billion yuan.
3. Immigration Administration: During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2023, the border inspection authorities across the country will inspect a total of 3.963 million people entering the country, with a daily average of 1.321 million people, a year-on-year increase of about 2.3 times, which is 64.6% of the Dragon Boat Festival in 2019. Among them, 2.048 million people entered and 1.915 million people left the country; There were 1.967 million mainland residents entering and leaving the country, and 1.673 million Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan residents.
4. Swift: In May, in the global payment currency ranking based on amount statistics, the Chinese yuan remained the fifth most active currency in the world, accounting for 2.54%. The total payment amount in RMB increased by 20.38% month on month, while the total payment amount in all currencies increased by 8.75% month on month.
5. Interface News: The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Japan are coordinating the issuance of new banknotes with a face value of 10000 yen by July 2024 at the earliest. The new 10000 yen note has a portrait of Shibusawa Eiichi, an industrialist known as the 'father of Japanese capitalism', on the front. This is the updated banknote pattern after approximately 20 years since 2004.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 1.31% lower at 3197.90 points, a weekly drop of 2.30%; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed 2.18% lower at 11058.63 points, down 2.19% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed down 2.62% at 2211.84 points, down 2.56% for the week.
2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed down 1.71% at 18889.97, down 5.74% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 2.08% lower at 3879.33 points, down 8.37% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed 1.71% lower at 6394.54 points, down 6.42% for the week.
3. CITIC Securities: At present, the domestic economy, policies and market sentiment are at the bottom. The three Great Game of theme, policy and position adjustment are becoming increasingly fierce, and the market volatility is still large. In terms of configuration, we will continue to adhere to the varieties with catalytic or performance advantages in the three major security fields of technology, energy resources, and national defense. 1) In the field of technology security, we will focus on the theme of the digital economy and the AI industry, which is still in its early stages; Autonomy and controllability remain the main focus of technology security throughout the year, and storage and panels are expected to experience a reversal at the bottom of the cycle in the second half of the year. 2) In the field of energy and resource security, it is suggested to focus on energy storage, Charging station, electric equipment, thermal power, etc. from the perspective of profit elasticity. 3) In the field of national defense and security, the sustainability of performance growth will become the core consideration for current stock selection, with recommendations for military communication, battlefield awareness, and aviation engines.
4. Shanghai Stock Exchange: Kangyuan Pharmaceutical has won the top spot and will be the first to disclose its interim report on July 13th. Bomeco will then disclose its interim report on July 22nd.
5. Kaisai Biological: It plans to issue stocks to Shanghai Yaoqin at a price of 43.34 yuan per share to raise no more than 6.6 billion yuan. After deducting relevant issuance fees, all of the funds will be used to supplement working capital and repay loans. China Merchants Group will indirectly invest in the shares, and the shares will resume trading on June 26.
6. Nanda Optoelectronics: We are planning to issue shares and pay cash to purchase 16.54% of the equity of Quanjiao Nanda and raise supporting funds. The trading of stocks and their derivatives, Nandian Convertible Bonds, will be suspended and convertible from June 26th, with an expected suspension of trading for no more than 10 trading days.
7. New share subscription: This week, a total of 9 new share subscriptions were made, including 5 on the ChiNext board, 2 on the Science and Technology Innovation board, and 2 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. These include Langwei Group, Haike Xinyuan, Henggong Precision, Zhishang Technology, Guoke Hengtai, Yuchen Intelligence, Tiancheng Technology, Huaxin Yongdao, and Tianli Composite.
8. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 148 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 10.198 billion shares lifted and a market value of 129.627 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Longxin Zhongke ranked first on the lifting list with a total of 34.081 billion yuan, while Xintian Green Energy and TCL Technology ranked second and third with 15.722 billion yuan and 11.76 billion yuan, respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. Shanghai Clearing House: The spot clearing business of bulk commodities of the Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. was launched on June 26 with Digital renminbi clearing and settlement services, and the operation time was adjusted to 9:00-18:00 on working days. In order to reflect the design concept of Digital renminbi Financial inclusion, the settlement service of digital currency clearing is not charged temporarily.
2. Paul Chan Mo-po, Financial Secretary of Hong Kong: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is studying the application of digital Hong Kong dollars; The 'Cross border Network of Multiple Central Bank Digital Currencies' has also moved from the experimental stage to the trial stage; The cooperation with the Central Bank on Digital renminbi cross-border retail payment has also entered the second phase of testing, with the goal of adding value to the Digital renminbi wallet through Faster Payment System in the future.
Industry Observation
1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: From January to May, China's software business revenue reached 4323.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The total profit of the software industry is 492.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. The export of software business reached 18.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, among which the export of software outsourcing services increased by 5% year-on-year.
2. Post office: As of June 24, China's express business volume has reached 60 billion pieces this year, 172 days ahead of the 60 billion pieces in 2019 and 34 days ahead of 2022.
3. CCTV Finance: In June of previous years, the herbal medicine market was generally in the off-season, but this year it has been abnormal. The latest comprehensive 200 market price index of Chinese medicinal materials has reached 3570.12, with a monthly increase of more than 10%. Among them, the growth rate of Angelica in the past month has reached about 60%, and the market price has exceeded 150 yuan per kilogram.
4. Didi: Orders during the 3-day holiday increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. The daily average completion volume of Xiaoju charging increased by over 60% year-on-year. Didi Hitchhiking's holiday orders rose 78% year on year, with the longest order of 995km. Under the high temperature during the holiday, summer outings have become a new necessity. Southwest, northwest, and some coastal cities have become popular tourist destinations during the Dragon Boat Festival.
5. Cailian News Agency: The AI craze has swept the world, and laptop brands are also starting to lock in AI business opportunities. Acer and HP are leading the way in creating AI laptops, driving a new wave of laptop switching through new AI chips, software applications, as well as new usage scenarios and experiences. The industry expects that AI laptops will bring market influence and begin to ferment as soon as 2024.
6. South Korean Ministry of Land and Transport: Hyundai Construction Company has successfully contracted the first and fourth construction projects of Saudi Aramco's 'Amiral' petrochemical facilities, and signed the project contract on June 24th. Amiral project is a project for Saudi Aramco to expand comprehensive petrochemical facilities in Byblos Industrial Zone in eastern Saudi Arabia, covering production facilities for petrochemical products such as ethylene. The above-mentioned contract has a scale of 5 billion US dollars, making it the largest project undertaken by Korean companies in Saudi Arabia.
7. Japan National Tourism Administration: The number of tourists visiting Japan in May reached 1.898 million, 69% of the number in May 2019 before the COVID-19 epidemic. The resumption of cruise ships visiting Japan in March played a positive role. The maximum number of Korean tourists is 515000, reaching 86% of May 2019. The second is Taiwan, China, with 303000 people, and the United States with 183000 people.
Insight Economics
1. Yonhap: South Korea is considering lowering its economic growth forecast for 2023 to reflect the sluggish performance of the semiconductor industry. The government may lower its expectations from 1.6% to 1.4% -1.5%. The Bank of Korea lowered its growth forecast for this year from 1.6% in February to 1.4% in May.
Financial data
1. Central Bank: In May, the bond market issued a total of 5456.16 billion yuan in various types of bonds. Treasury bond issued 735.28 billion yuan, local government bonds issued 755.35 billion yuan, financial bond issued 984.45 billion yuan, corporate credit bonds issued 796.27 billion yuan, credit asset-backed securities issued 25.3 billion yuan, and interbank deposit receipts issued 212079 billion yuan.
2. Last Wednesday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1938, down 0.2704% and up 1.0819% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was at 7.1795, with no increase or decrease, with a weekly increase of 0.4306%.
3. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 760 million yuan, a decrease of 33.51% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6468. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 26.365 billion yuan.
4. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 1.1253 million tons, with a total trading volume of 58.9979 million yuan and a closing price of 57.00 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.38%.
5. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed down 0.65% at 33727.43, a weekly drop of 1.67%; The Nasdaq closed 1.01% lower at 13492.52 points, down 1.44% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.77% lower at 4348.33, down 1.39% for the week.
6. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.54% lower at 7461.87 points, down 2.37% for the week; The German DAX30 closed down 0.99% at 15829.94 points, down 3.23% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.55% lower at 7163.42 points, down 3.05% for the week.
7. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX August gold futures closed up 0.30% at $1929.6 per ounce, down 2.11% for the week.
8. Crude oil: WTI August crude oil futures closed 0.5% lower at $69.16 per barrel, down 3.85% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 0.39% lower at $73.85 per barrel, down 2.90% for the week.
·Looking back at Zongzi, sitting and watching the clouds rise·
► Huatai Securities: 106 million domestic tourists traveled during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, up 32.3% year on year, and the comparable caliber recovered to 112.8% in 2019; The tourism revenue was 37.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.5%, which was 94.9% of the same period in 2019. Cultural performance tours, summer vacations, and other activities have performed well, and the recovery trend of short distance tourism is improving. The Dragon Boat Festival holiday is relatively short, but the number of tourists has performed relatively well. The demand for long-term summer travel is expected to be concentrated and released, benefiting sub sectors such as scenic spots, hotels, catering, and tax exemption. The demand for leisure and vacation has gradually become a necessity for consumers, and the Dragon Boat Festival travel chain is once again experiencing a small peak. The positive sentiment of the sector has been boosted, and the summer peak season is approaching. Tourism demand is expected to continue to be released, supporting the sector's prosperity.
► Economic Daily: According to the data of the Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 15:38 on June 24, the total box office of the Dragon Boat Festival films had exceeded 800 million, an increase of more than three times over the same period last year. 'Lost She', 'I Love You!' and 'Transformers: The Rise of Super Warriors' ranked among the top three at the box office. With the opening of the summer season of the film market (June 1st to August 31st), the total domestic box office of the 2023 summer season has exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, and more than 80 films have been booked one after another, which is expected to drive the recovery and acceleration of the film market. The summer season is one of the core seasons in the film market throughout the year. Looking back on the past few years, the summer box office has achieved satisfactory results. In 2022, the box office of the summer box office exceeded 9 billion yuan, in 2019, it reached 17.6 billion yuan, in 2018, it was 13.824 billion yuan, and in 2017, it was 16.3 billion yuan.
Xinda Securities: During the Dragon Boat Festival, many regions generally experienced hot weather, and some regions broke historical records for extreme high temperatures during the same period. With the steady rise of temperature, the electricity load in the operating areas of State Grid of China continues to rise, with the maximum electricity load reaching 860 million kilowatts recently, an increase of 7.77% year-on-year. Under normal climate conditions, it is expected that the highest electricity load in China will be around 1.37 billion kilowatts in 2023, an increase of about 80 million kilowatts compared to 2022. In case of Longue durée and large-scale extreme climate, the maximum power load of the country may increase by about 100 million kilowatts compared with 2022. In May, the absolute hydroelectric power generation in China was 82.02 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9%, and the power generation reached a new low since 2016. In contrast, the role of thermal power as a bottom support continues to be prominent, and it is currently in the early stages of a new round of upward trend in the coal economy. Fundamentals and policies resonate, and it is timely to allocate the coal sector on dips.
► Tianfeng Securities: Even without policy incentives, the endogenous momentum of economic recovery in the third and fourth quarters of this year may begin to marginal strengthen, rather than continue to decline. The probability of the second quarter is the month on month low point of the economic recovery momentum this year. Under the combined effect of the recession of overdraft effect, the repair of endogenous growth momentum, and the bottoming out of inventory cycle, the economy may improve month on month in the third and fourth quarters, entering the third stage of the 'N-shaped' recovery. However, the market's short-term focus on the long-term (transformation and gear shifting deceleration) problem and the long-term focus on the short-term (post pandemic N-shaped recovery low point) problem have led to excessive pessimism, indicating that the market may underestimate fundamental pricing, which may be stimulated by external factors in the future, and there is room for pricing repair.