Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. Central Meteorological Observatory: A yellow cold wave warning has been issued. It is expected that from 08:00 on January 21 to 20:00 on January 23, western Inner Mongolia, eastern Northeast China, northeastern Northwest China, western and northern North China, eastern Huanghuai River, most Jianghuai River, most Jiangnan River, southeastern Southwest China, and most of South China will cool by 8-10 ℃. Among them, eastern Jilin, eastern Liaoning, central northern Shanxi, central southern Zhejiang, etc Some areas in northern Fujian and other areas can experience a temperature drop of 12-16 ℃.
2. CCTV News Client: In 2024, Beijing will deepen education reform and development. 20000 new primary and secondary school degrees have been added. Continuously deepen the "double reduction" work, make good use of artificial intelligence and big data technology, improve the digital curriculum system of the "airborne classroom" across all stages and disciplines, and enhance the educational and teaching capabilities of schools. Promote the diversified development of high-quality characteristics in ordinary high schools, optimize and adjust the layout of vocational education majors.
3. Beijing Evening News: The 40 day Spring Festival travel event will kick off on January 26th (December 16th). During the Spring Festival travel rush, the total number of passengers entering and leaving Beijing is expected to reach 49.88 million, with a daily average of nearly 1.25 million, a year-on-year increase of 55%. The peak will occur on February 17th (the eighth day of the first lunar month), with 1.57 million people entering and leaving Beijing.
4. World Economic Forum President Schwab: There is still room for China's development and economic growth. In the past, some people used to say that China's booming development had come to an end, but now there are similar statements. I believe that China will take action to address challenges such as social aging, debt, and the real estate market, and I believe that China will find a new economic growth model.
5. PwC: Visited over 4700 CEOs worldwide on global economic issues. 38% of respondents are optimistic about global economic growth. This number is twice that of last year, when many countries around the world were facing difficulties such as high inflation and rising interest rates. The number of executives expected to experience an economic recession this year has dropped from a historic high of 73% last year to 45%, and few CEOs believe their companies face a higher risk of geopolitical conflict.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.47% at 2832.28 points, down 1.72% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 0.68% at 8787.02 points, down 2.33% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed down 0.98% at 1715.44 points, down 2.6% for the week.
2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed down 0.54% at 15308.69 points, down 5.76% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 1.45% at 3129.92 points, down 9.82% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed down 0.87% at 5127.24 points, down 6.47% for the week.
3. Shanghai Securities News: Beijing has become one of the first pilot areas for institutional opening up in the country, and the first Zhongguancun Comprehensive Bonded Zone with research and development innovation as its characteristic has been approved for establishment. The Financial Street Forum has been successfully held to support the expansion and improvement of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and the number of listed companies has increased by nearly three times when it opened. The first China Europe freight train from Beijing to Europe has been successfully launched.
4. Securities Times: Since the beginning of this year, E Fund's CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF and Southern CSI 300 ETF have successively reviewed the conversion from the original bank trading settlement model to the securities company trading settlement model. Funds that adopt the bond settlement model can break through the limit of split ratio, and ETFs and index funds are relatively more dependent on securities firm sales, so switching to the bond settlement model is more active.
5. CITIC Securities: After an indiscriminate adjustment at the beginning of the year, the market is currently at a critical point of cyclical chain negative feedback, and quasi "level" funds have begun to continue to exert strength, with a clear bottoming effect. Focus on high-quality blue chips in the technology, pharmaceutical, and new energy sectors. It is expected that the market will enter a monthly level rebound trading window period.
6. Guotai Junan: The successful purchase of broad base ETFs by a large amount of funds has led to a "single shot bottoming" pattern in heavyweight indices such as the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Looking ahead to the future, as the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen below the important low point of 2863 in April 2022, the lower edge of the original volatility range has shifted downwards. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be demand for consolidation in the market in the near future, but the possibility of further significant market decline is relatively small.
7. Tianfeng Securities: From 2024 to 2025, it is expected that lithium resource supply may transition from tight supply-demand balance to oversupply. The lithium price center may still have downward potential, and the importance of cost and resource advantages for enterprises will continue to be highlighted. There is a mismatch window between the lithium price cycle and the stock price trend, and the stock price often reflects the lithium price in advance. In this downward cycle, the stock price is expected to fall in price and is currently at a historically low level.
8. Muyuan Group: After entering winter, the pressure on disease prevention and control in the company has increased, but overall it can be prevented and controlled. The company has summarized its past experience in disease prevention and control, and has established prevention and control pathways for major diseases including African swine fever. It is equipped with air filtration and independent ventilation devices, which can achieve normalized prevention and control management.
9. Tianwei Video: In 2023, it achieved a total operating revenue of 1.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.02%; The net profit was 114 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.06%. Affected by the loss of cable digital TV and broadband users, the company's basic viewing fee revenue and broadband business revenue have decreased.
10. Huahai Qingke: In 2023, it is expected to achieve a net profit of 659 million to 774 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.38% -54.31%. The development of new businesses such as wafer regeneration, CDS, and SDS has shown initial results, improving the company's revenue and profitability.
11. New stock subscription: This week, there was a total of 1 new stock subscription, including 1 on the ChiNext board, for Huayang Intelligence.
12. Restricted shares lifted: This week, a total of 62 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 2.357 billion shares lifted and a market value of 28.748 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Zejing Pharmaceutical ranked first on the lifting ban list with 4.601 billion yuan, while Luxi Chemical and Shentong Technology ranked second and third with 4.1 billion yuan and 3.304 billion yuan respectively.
Industry observation
1. Jiweiwang: AI drives storage demand, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all increasing their crop utilization rates in the first half of 2024. It is expected that the three major suppliers will continue to reduce production until mid-2024, and capital expenditure and output will focus on more profitable products such as High Frequency Wide Storage (HBM) and DDR5.
2. Sigmantell: It is expected that the wafer foundry industry will enter a recovery cycle in 2024, with a recovery rate of 75-76% in the first quarter, and the recovery momentum of advanced processes is stronger than that of mature processes. The price of 28/40nm OEM may be slightly reduced. Currently, 8-inch wafer foundries are generally still lowering prices, and it is expected that prices will decrease by about 10% month on month in the first quarter of 2024.
3. Shanghai Securities News: Beijing will carry out comprehensive reform pilot projects such as data asset entry into the balance sheet and cross-border data facilitation services. Explore and improve data trading standards to enhance the operational capabilities of the Beijing International Big Data Exchange. Launch the 4.0 phase task of constructing high-level autonomous driving demonstration zones, and promote the orderly opening of key application scenarios such as airports, train stations, and urban road cleaning.
4. Cheetah Mobile Chairman Fu Sheng: The 14 billion dollar model of the Orion Starry Sky has been released and open to the public for free and commercial use. For the trend of technological development in 2024, four predictions are given: more than half of the 100 billion dollar model will wither by 2024, and privatization of the 10 billion dollar model will bring a hundred flowers to bloom; The opportunity to surpass OpenAl comes from large model application companies; "Digital boss" will become a standard feature for enterprises, and the board of directors will assess the CEO's duration of using AI; Embodied intelligence is very popular, but humanoid robots cannot be mass-produced.
5. Yangtze Power: The world's largest clean energy corridor will generate over 276 billion kilowatt hours of electricity in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.34%, equivalent to saving about 83 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by over 200 million tons, which can meet the annual electricity needs of over 290 million people.
6. Cat's Eye Professional Edition: At 15:16 on January 21, the total box office in January 2024 exceeded 2 billion, with "The Annual Meeting Cannot Stop!", "Golden Finger", and "Stealth" ranking in the top three of the January box office charts.
7. Securities Times: The continuous attacks by the Husai armed forces on ships in the Red Sea area, which began in December 2023, are still ongoing, and there is still no sign that the situation will ease in the short term. At present, there is no obvious shortage of containers, but it is almost close to the supply-demand balance. However, if the Red Sea crisis continues, the future supply of empty containers may be tight.
8. Chilean Foreign Investment Promotion Agency: Companies from Asian countries such as South Korea plan to strengthen cooperation in the lithium industry with Chile. Korean companies plan to convert Chile's abundant lithium resources into materials such as lithium iron phosphate needed for lithium batteries, and then export them to the United States. Korean companies may enjoy preferential policies from the United States for their lithium battery products, diversifying their clean energy supply chain.
9. Xinhua News Agency: An international team led by researchers from the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom used the James Webb Space Telescope in the United States to observe a black hole that can be traced back to about 400 million years after the Big Bang, with a mass several million times that of the Sun. This is the oldest black hole discovered so far, and the existence of such a massive black hole at the birth of the universe poses a challenge to existing black hole theories.
Financial data
1. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.282 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.69% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6220. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 4.04 billion yuan.
2. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1938, up 0.0111% and down 0.4412% for the week; The median price of the Chinese yuan was 7.1167, up 0.0098% and down 0.1647% for the week.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 112900 tons, with a total transaction amount of 8.107 million yuan and a closing price of 71.99 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.48%.
4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to close at 37863.80 points, up 0.72% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 1.23% to 4839.81 points, up 1.17% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 1.70% to 15310.97 points, up 2.26% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index fell 0.07% to 16555.13 points, down 0.89% for the week; The French CAC40 index fell 0.40% to 7371.64 points, a decrease of 1.25% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.04% to close at 7461.93 points, down 2.14% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX February gold futures rose 0.38% to $2029.3 per ounce, down 1.09% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI February crude oil futures closed 0.9% lower at $73.41 per barrel, down 1.00% for the week; Brent's March crude oil futures closed 0.68% lower at $78.56 per barrel, down 0.34% for the week.
·The AI chip battle "smoke of war" rises again·
Shanghai Stock Exchange News: Benefiting from the boom in artificial intelligence, Nvidia and AMD stock prices hit new highs on January 19th. In December 2023, AMD released the new MI300 series AI chips in an attempt to challenge Nvidia's dominant position in the field of artificial intelligence chips. AMD claims that the MI300 series chips perform better than Nvidia's H100 graphics cards and have received orders from Microsoft, Oracle, Meta, and OpenAI. The institution predicts that the shipment volume of MI300 chips will reach 300000 to 400000 pieces this year, and the shipment volume of Nvidia H100 will reach 1.5-2 million pieces. Industry insiders say that although Nvidia's leading position cannot be underestimated, the market's expectations and demand for second providers will further develop the software ecosystem, which is conducive to the rise of AMD.
Guotai Junan: There is both traditional stock market competition and competition in new fields among chip giants. Nvidia is seeking a comprehensive layout of AI, while Intel and AMD are consolidating their advantages and exploring new markets. Nvidia has fully laid out its AI application end, bringing the new GeForce RTX SUPER desktop GPU and launching ACE microservices; Intel strengthens its AI processing capabilities, with the launch of three new series of Core mobile processors: HX, U series, and desktop, covering high-performance and office scenarios; The overall maximum computing power of the AMD 8000G series APU can reach 39 TOPS, improving the desktop office experience. The Ryzen Z1 Series processor is seeking to expand the handheld market space.
CITIC Construction Investment: AIGC has triggered a paradigm revolution in content generation, cloud algorithms are evolving towards large models and multimodality, hardware infrastructure has become the cornerstone of development, and core links such as computing power chips benefit. Against the backdrop of limited supply of high-end GPU chips from NVIDIA and AMD to China, domestic computing power chips are entering a window of domestic substitution. In addition, the demand for computing power in the post Moore era has exploded, and on the one hand, there is an urgent need for cost-effective solutions. Advanced packaging technology iteration has become a new development trend, and domestic packaging and testing leaders are actively laying out their positions; On the other hand, advanced processes have entered the 3nm era under the competition of leading companies such as TSMC. Domestic wafer foundries are also working on advanced processes for FinFET architecture, which is expected to provide advanced manufacturing processes for high computing power chips.
Shanxi Securities: Global semiconductor sales have increased year-on-year for the first time since August 2022, and the global chip market continues to strengthen in 2024. At the same time, considering the increase in shipments of end side devices such as AI smartphones and PCs, mature wafer foundry processes continue to lower prices, and IC design factories are expected to reduce costs and increase profits. In the medium to long term, the independent and controllable process of the domestic semiconductor industry chain is accelerating. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic substitution of upstream equipment, materials, and components, the demand for high-performance chips and advanced packaging driven by AI technology, as well as the sector repair brought by the recovery of consumer electronics and investment opportunities in Huawei's industrial chain.