Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. Central Meteorological Observatory: Since April, the subtropical high pressure has been stronger than the same period throughout the year, which is conducive to the transport of water vapor from the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal to the southern region. At the same time, the plateau trough and southern branch system are active, leading to frequent and prolonged heavy rainfall processes in the southern region. In addition, the temperature of the atmosphere in Jiangnan, South China, and other regions is significantly higher than the same period throughout the year. The atmosphere has abundant water content and unstable energy, leading to vigorous convective development and high rainfall intensity. The cumulative precipitation in many areas has exceeded the historical record in April.
2. CCTV News: As of April 21st, a total of 1001 trains and 113000 TEUs of goods were transported at the Erenhot Railway Port on the China Europe freight train's central channel this year, an increase of 7.8% and 9.2% year-on-year, respectively, setting a new historical high for the same period. Among them, high value-added and high-tech products such as cars, computers, and robots account for over 40%.
3. IMF: The global economy is showing resilience and is expected to achieve a soft landing, but the recovery is still uneven among countries. The current focus of work is to achieve price stability, strengthen fiscal sustainability, maintain financial stability, and promote inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Support strong, quota based, and resource sufficient fund organizations as the core of the global financial safety net.
4. CCTV News: Affected by the continuous heavy rainfall since April 16, 44 rivers in the the Pearl River basin have had over warning floods, with an over warning range of 0.01-7.04 meters, of which the Beijiang River has the No. 2 flood in 2024. The water level of the Beijiang River will continue to rise and may develop into a major flood, posing a great risk of geological disasters such as floods in small and medium-sized rivers and mountain floods.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.29% at 3065.26 points, up 1.52% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 1.04% at 9279.46 points, up 0.56% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed 1.76% lower at 1756.00 points, down 0.39% for the week.
2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed down 0.99% at 16224.14 points, down 2.98% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 2.35% lower at 3278.06 points, down 5.65% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed down 0.99% at 5746.61 points, down 2.26% for the week.
3. China Fund News: Recently, a small market value quantitative selection product under the billion dollar private equity firm Sixie Investment has attracted market attention with a "1.8% management fee+0 performance return". Previously, several institutions such as Pansong Asset Management and Xingxu Private Equity Fund waived management fees or performance rewards for their index enhancement products.
4. Securities Times: As of April 21, there are 198 A-share listed companies that have made predictions on their performance for the first quarter of 2024. According to the disclosed performance forecasts, there are a total of 167 companies with expected increases, slight increases, continued gains, and turnaround losses, accounting for over 80% of the total. From the lower limit of expected profit scale, nearly 60 companies are expected to make a profit of over 100 million yuan in the first quarter.
5. China Fund News: Since April 29, 2019, the first batch of seven science and technology innovation themed funds have been established one after another. In the past five years, public investment in the Science and Technology Innovation Board has shown a rapid growth trend, with various types of funds competing to include stocks on the board in their investment scope. Innovative public investment products related to the Science and Technology Innovation Board have emerged one after another, and the total market value of public investment in the Science and Technology Innovation Board has also surged by 30 times.
6. CITIC Securities: The current abnormal collective bullish trend in commodities is a coincidence of their respective narratives, and after a period of frenzy, prices of different commodities may experience differentiation. Gold, high platform favorable period, may still be relatively dominant before the Federal Reserve's substantial easing. The current rise in copper prices is due to an undeniable supply-demand gap, and the strong gold price is driven up by the copper gold ratio.
7. Huatai Securities: 2024 will be the first year of China's low altitude industry. The development of low altitude industries in the future cannot be separated from changes in policies, technologies, and business models. 1) Low altitude airspace will gradually open up; 2) Aircraft performance, cost breakthroughs, and improvement of information infrastructure; 3) Various scenarios are gradually being implemented, and operating companies have grown from scratch. Be optimistic about investment opportunities for suppliers of navigation infrastructure, 3D high-precision maps, and air traffic control systems under the "low altitude new infrastructure".
8. Tianfeng Securities: In March 2024, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the market reached 709900 units, an increase of 31% year-on-year and 82% month on month. Under the price war, sales have shown a two-level differentiation, with an increase in the proportion of vehicles priced below 200000 yuan and those priced above 500000 yuan. The sales of high-end and mid to low-end models have increased in parallel. It is recommended to focus on more resilient in car displays and high-end air suspension tracks with penetration.
9. Zhongji Xuchuang: Net profit in 2023 was 2.174 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.58%. The net profit for the first quarter of 2024 was 1.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.84%.
10. Aike Technology: The expected net profit for the first quarter is 15.2 million to 17.5 million yuan, an increase of 51.5% to 74.42% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company actively promoted the construction of its marketing network, improved product competitiveness, and increased downstream customer orders.
11. Northgate: In 2023, it achieved a revenue of 721 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.15%; The net profit was 163 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.27%. In the first quarter of 2024, the net profit was 23.0489 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.95%.
12. Fuliwang's operating revenue in the first quarter of 2024 was 246 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.55%; The net profit was 27.1207 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 271.23%. During the reporting period, the overall market demand in the consumer electronics industry remained stable, with good demand for new products and an increase in the share of some products among major customers.
13. Lansi Technology achieved a revenue of 54.491 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 16.69%; The net profit was 3.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.42%. We plan to distribute a cash dividend of 3 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
Wealth Focus
1. Economic Daily: Since the beginning of this year, the largest year-on-year increases in COMEX silver futures prices and gold futures prices have been 24.4% and 18.2%, respectively. Similar to gold, the rise in silver prices is mainly the result of the resonance of three factors: physical supply and demand, finance, and hedging attributes. Due to speculative trading and risk aversion, there is still a possibility of silver prices rising in the short term.
2. Securities Times: Recently, the State Administration for Financial Regulation issued a notice (draft for soliciting opinions) to property and casualty insurance companies and other relevant parties on promoting the high-quality development of new energy vehicle insurance, proposing development ideas for new energy vehicle insurance from three aspects, including optimizing the supply mechanism of new energy vehicle insurance and improving the operational level of the industry's new energy vehicle insurance. Multiple provisions are related to premium pricing.
Industry observation
1. Cui Dongshu: In the past two years, the new energy vehicle and energy storage industry has been highly prosperous, and the proportion of new energy vehicle batteries installed has decreased. With the growth of long-term products, ternary batteries have rebounded, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the total has decreased from 67% to 61%. With the promotion of policies, the demand for battery installation in electric vehicles is expected to continue to grow slower than the total number of vehicles, while the trend of pure electric vehicles is weak.
2. China Tourism Research Institute: The number of outbound tourists is expected to reach 130 million in 2024. As of now, the number of outbound tourists during the May Day holiday has increased by about 370% compared to the same period last year. Popular countries for outbound travel include Japan, South Korea, the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, Canada, New Zealand, and more. South Korea's search popularity surged 27 times year-on-year, ranking first on the list of popular destinations.
3. China Securities News: In order to accelerate the cultivation of innovative enterprises, relevant departments are accelerating the research and development of gradient cultivation methods for "unicorn" enterprises, gathering innovative resources, strengthening precision services, cultivating more "unicorn" enterprises, and accelerating the formation of new quality productivity. At the same time, policies and measures will be introduced to promote the development of specialized, refined, and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises.
4. Caixin News Agency: Recently, multiple storage companies have expected good performance in the first quarter. The reduction in production by storage factories and the rise in prices have driven the performance recovery of storage industry chain enterprises. The implementation of AI applications has also brought a certain driving effect to the storage industry. In addition, there was a significant increase in DRAM prices in the second quarter, with a range of 10% -20%, and the increase has exceeded 50% since July last year.
5. CCTV News: After the first carbon reduction project in the field of electronic waste in China was signed and implemented in Zhejiang, the first batch of 10000 tons of carbon reduction trading has been completed and invoiced recently. The first batch of transactions for this project were completed by Zhejiang Shengtang Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. and Lenovo Group. The former generates carbon emissions through dismantling and processing electronic waste, while the latter offsets the carbon emissions during its production process by purchasing carbon emissions reductions.
6. Wan Gang, Chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology: Carbon neutral fuels, represented by hydrogen based fuels, have strong carbon reduction potential throughout their entire lifecycle and will become an important way to achieve carbon neutrality and even zero emissions in the automotive industry. Lead the innovative development of internal combustion engines with hydrogen fuel cells, moderately advance the construction of hydrogen supply systems, accelerate the technological innovation and promotion of fuel cell engines through major scientific and technological demonstration projects, and accelerate the electrification and low-carbon process of commercial vehicles.
7. CCTV News: At this year's World Internal Combustion Engine Conference, the world's first diesel engine with a thermal efficiency of 53.09%, independently developed by China, was officially unveiled. After being recognized by third-party authoritative certification agencies worldwide, this diesel engine has created the highest effective thermal efficiency in the field of internal combustion engines in the world today.
8. Science and Technology Daily: The upgrade and renovation project of Shenzhen Mawan Power Plant - natural gas pipeline access project - land sea directional drilling crossing pipeline successfully towed back on April 17th. This is the world's longest land sea directional drilling crossing pipeline. The project receives gas from the Shenzhen Dachan Island distribution station, crosses the western waterway of Shenzhen from rock layers below 80 meters on the seabed, and lands at the Shenzhen Mawan Power Plant. The directional drill has a total length of 4735 meters and a pipe diameter of 610 millimeters.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.2401, a decrease of 0.0152% and a weekly decrease of 0.0359%; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1046, down 0.0366%, with a weekly decrease of 0.1113%.
2. New Third Board: Last week, four new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 732 million, an increase of 7.59% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6189.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 360300 tons, with a total transaction amount of 33.7428 million yuan and a closing price of 94.39 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.78%.
4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.56% to 37986.40 points, up 0.01% for the week; The S&P 500 index fell 0.88% to 4967.23 points, down 3.05% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 2.05% to 15282.01 points, down 5.52% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index fell 0.56% to 17737.36 points, down 1.08% for the week; The French CAC40 index fell 0.01% to 8022.41 points, with a weekly increase of 0.14%; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.24% to 7895.85 points, down 1.25% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, the settlement price of COMEX June gold futures rose 0.36% to $2406.7 per ounce, up 1.97% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures for May rose 0.5% to $83.14 per barrel, down 3% for the week; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.2% to $87.29 per barrel in June, a weekly decrease of 3.5%.
Guojin Securities: Recently, LME copper prices rose by 4.97% to $9874.5 per ton. Global copper inventory destocking ranges from 3000 tons to 623300 tons. The upward trend of copper prices continues, with inflation expectations reflected by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate rising by 2BP to 2.41%, supporting the upward trend of copper prices. The high copper price has led to weak market consumption, and the pace of downstream rigid demand procurement has not changed. Some enterprises are considering phased reduction and shutdown due to weak market consumption and high inventory pressure. In 2024, global copper supply growth is limited, leading mining companies to intensify supply disruptions, and it is expected that electrolytic copper will maintain a tight supply-demand balance throughout the year.
Hualong Securities: Affected by factors such as declining copper ore taste, increasing mining costs, worker strikes, and environmental policies, several major copper mines, including Cobre Panama Copper Mine under First Quantum, Anglo American United, and Radomiro Tomic under Codelco, have announced production cuts or shutdowns since the end of 2023. Overall, the global shortage of copper concentrate supply may intensify in 2024, leading to a continuous decline in processing fees for downstream smelters. Smelters in China and other regions may consider stopping or reducing production to stabilize processing fee prices. Under the expectation of intensified supply-demand imbalance, copper prices surged in the short term this week.
Dongwu Securities: In terms of demand, the sustained high copper prices have suppressed the release of demand, and market consumption remains weak. The pace of downstream rigid demand procurement has not changed. At present, there is a slight shortage of supply at the mining end in the short term, and long-term supply expectations are tightening. Copper prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. Rio Tinto and Toque stated at the Chilean Copper Conference that they need a significant increase in copper prices to stimulate copper investment and meet future demand for new energy. It is recommended to pay attention to the March US PCE data, and copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. In addition, Russian metals are restricted from trading LME and CME warehouse receipts, and the expectation of insufficient exchange warehouse receipts in the short term may lead to a forced position market.
Everbright Securities: The current copper industry is in a period of tight supply, with downstream demand exceeding expectations. Copper prices have entered a very high price range, known as the demand elasticity zone, and subtle changes in demand will bring about a rapid jump in copper prices. In 2024, the copper industry will enter a shortage, and the shortage will further expand in 2025; In theory, there is hope that the price will increase in the future and exceed the cash cost of all existing production capacity, which is expected to rise to $14500 per ton. In summary, copper prices need to rise above $12000 per ton in order to have more potential supply release. The supply-demand gap will gradually expand from 2024 to 2025, and copper prices above $12000/ton are expected to be realized by 2025. We continue to be optimistic about investment opportunities for copper industry companies.