Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. China Railway Group: In June, the national railway shipped 332 million tons of goods and completed a freight turnover of 266.5 billion ton kilometers, an increase of 6.1% and 5.3% respectively year-on-year, setting a new historical high for the same period. At present, China's railway freight volume exceeds the total freight volume of the United States and Russia, which are ranked second and third in the world.
2. Ministry of Water Resources: July 16th to August 15th is a critical period for flood prevention in China, known as the "Seven Downs and Eight Ups" period. The flood prevention situation in our country is severe and complex, and the water conservancy system will fully activate the key period flood prevention work mechanism.
3. Ministry of Civil Affairs: actively explore the "Internet plus supervision" model, explore the application of new technologies, and empower the supervision of elderly care services. Continuously strengthen the standardization, normalization, and professionalization of elderly care services, punish and punish acts of elder abuse and mistreatment in accordance with the law, further strengthen the safety bottom line of elderly care services, and promote the upgrading of elderly care service institutions.
4. Central Meteorological Observatory: Starting from July 14th, the main rain belt affecting China will gradually move northward, moving from the previous Jianghuai region to the Huanghuai region. It is estimated that from the 14th to the 18th, there will be heavy rainstorm in parts of the northern Sichuan Basin, eastern and southern Henan, Shandong, northern Jiangsu and Anhui, and local extremely heavy rainstorm, accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds and other severe convective weather
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.03% at 2971.30 points, up 0.72% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 0.18% at 8854.08 points, up 1.82% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed down 0.09% at 1683.63 points, up 1.69% for the week.
2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed up 2.59% at 18293.38 points, up 2.77% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 2.32% at 3782.08 points, up 5.15% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 2.52% at 6532.63 points, with a weekly increase of 2.36%.
3. Shanghai Stock Exchange: China Securities Index Co., Ltd. will officially release the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Design Theme Index and Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index on July 26th, providing the market with more investment targets for the semiconductor industry on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
4. As of June, the asset size of domestic stock quantitative private equity managers was approximately 780 billion yuan, a significant decrease of over 35% compared to the 1.21 trillion yuan at the end of 2023. According to data from multiple institutions, quantitative private equity with assets of "60 billion+" was completely wiped out in the just passed second quarter.
5. Haitong Securities: The disclosed semi annual report data shows that the overall profit of A-shares has declined, but combined with macro data, the performance of A-shares' profits in the second quarter may be relatively stable. Structurally, the electronic, automotive, utility, and transportation industries have shown higher forecasted growth rates, corresponding to the top market performance since June. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, there will be positive changes in risk appetite, funding, and fundamentals. The A-share market is expected to rise to a higher level, with a focus on high-end manufacturing in terms of structure.
6. GoerTek: Expected net profit of 1.181 billion yuan to 1.265 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 180% to 200%. During the reporting period, the profitability of the intelligent acoustic whole machine and intelligent hardware business improved.
7. Wen's Group: Expected net profit of 1.25-1.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, turning losses into profits year-on-year. The production performance continues to improve, coupled with the impact of the decrease in feed raw material prices, the company's breeding costs have decreased year-on-year.
8. Changying Precision: It is expected to achieve a net profit of 370 million to 450 million yuan in the first half of the year, turning losses around year-on-year. During the same period last year, the company incurred a loss of approximately 132 million yuan. The consumer electronics and new energy markets continue to recover, with important new projects being mass-produced and delivered to major international and domestic clients.
9. Zhongji Xuchuang: Expected net profit of 2.15 billion yuan to 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 250.30% to 307.33%. Thanks to the rapid increase in the proportion of high-end products such as 800G/400G shipped, the product structure continues to be optimized.
10. Jingce Electronics: It is expected that the net profit for the first half of the year will be 45 million to 55 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 272.09% to 354.77%. During the reporting period, the industry recovery situation in the display sector continued to improve, and market demand gradually recovered.
11. New stock subscription: This week, there was one new stock subscription for Green Link Technology on the ChiNext board.
12. Restricted and unlocked: This week, a total of 88 restricted shares were unlocked, with a total of 2.312 billion shares unlocked and a market value of 35.332 billion yuan. Among them, Hesheng Silicon Industry ranked first on the unlocking list with 4.995 billion yuan, while Air China and Reader Culture ranked second and third with 4.40 billion yuan and 2.645 billion yuan respectively.
Industry Observation
1. Ministry of Transport: Cruise transportation in China accelerated its recovery in the first half of the year. There are a total of 23 cruise ships operating 206 voyages, and the national cruise passenger transport volume is nearly 500000, which has recovered to more than half of the same period in 2019, with a month on month increase of nearly 60% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.
2. Lighthouse: As of 13:31 on July 14th, the box office of summer films this year has exceeded 4 billion yuan. 'Silent Kill', 'There's a Small Shop by the Clouds', and' Brain Agents 2 'are currently among the top three box office hits during their release period.
3. Cui Dongshu from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: In June, with the gradual effectiveness of the national "trade in" policy and the introduction and follow-up of corresponding policies and measures in various regions, the national passenger car market maintained a relatively good development stage. Due to the increase in non RDE vehicle processing in June last year, and the end of the tax exemption policy for micro electric vehicles under 200 kilometers at the end of May this year, the retail growth quality in June this year was relatively high.
4. Statistics Bureau: Compared to late June, prices of 25 products increased in early July, 22 decreased, and 3 remained unchanged. Among them, the price of live pigs (three yuan) in early July was 18.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.5% month on month.
5. Korea Association of Automobile and Mobile Industries: The export unit price of automobiles in the first half of the year was 25224 US dollars, setting a new historical high for the same period. The average export price of automobiles is on the rise. Based on the first half of the year, in 2018 it was only $16685, and in 2020 it broke through the $20000 mark for the first time, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8% over the next three years.
6. Xinhua News Agency: Professor Lei Aiwen's team from the School of Chemistry and Molecular Sciences at Wuhan University has achieved precise control of metal catalytic species in an exchange electrolysis environment, solving the scientific problem of transition metal catalysts easily precipitating and deactivating at the cathode under electrochemical synthesis conditions and requiring the use of separation tanks.
7. Science and Technology Daily: Recently, the first ultra deep well in the Bohai Sea of China, the D1 well of the Bohai 19-6 condensate gas field, achieved high-yield oil and gas flow, with a daily oil equivalent of over 1000 cubic meters, marking a key progress in the exploration and development of large-scale oil and gas resources in the ultra deep field of the Bohai Sea.
8. CCTV News: The second domestically produced cruise ship has begun final assembly and is entering an accelerated period of construction. In terms of ship size, cabin layout, and system configuration, the second cruise ship has made significant improvements, with less construction time and a 20% increase in construction efficiency. The dock cycle will be reduced by nearly 8 months.
Insight Economics
1. South Korea's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism: In the first half of the year, domestic airports and international routes transported over 42.77 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 45%, returning to 93.9% of the same period in 2019.
2. CCTV News: Due to the long-term disrepair of railway facilities, Deutsche Bahn will close a main railway line connecting the financial center Frankfurt and southern Germany from July 15th for a 5-month renovation and upgrade, expected to cost 1.3 billion euros.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 4:30 pm against the US dollar at 7.2585, up 0.1719% and up 0.1225% for the week; The central parity rate of RMB was reported at 7.1315, up 0.0336% and down 0.0365% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 4 new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 557 million yuan, a decrease of 8.75% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6145.
3. Shanghai Environmental Protection Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 176400 tons, with a total trading volume of 15.8256 million yuan and a closing price of 90.18 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.47%.
4. US stock market: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.62% to 40000.90 points, up 1.59% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 0.55% to 5615.35 points, with a weekly increase of 0.87%; The Nasdaq rose 0.63% to 18398.45 points, with a weekly increase of 0.25%.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 1.15% to 18748.18 points, up 1.48% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 1.27% to 7724.32 points, with a weekly increase of 0.63%; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.36% to 8252.91 points, with a weekly increase of 0.60%.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX gold futures closed down 0.24% at $2416 per ounce, up 0.68% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell 0.5% to $82.21 per barrel, down 1.14% for the week. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.43% to $85.03 per barrel, down 1.74% for the week.
Huachuang Securities: Carrot Run Leads the Accelerated Development of Robotaxi Industry. Carrot Run is an autonomous driving travel service platform launched by Baidu Apollo. As of April 19, 2024, it has provided over 6 million autonomous driving travel service orders to the public. Its services have been tested and operated regularly for the public in more than 10 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Changsha, and Yangquan. Approximately 826000 orders were placed for the supply of Carrot Run in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%. On May 15th, at Baidu Apollo Day, Baidu Apollo released the world's first autonomous driving model Apollo ADFM that supports L4 level autonomous driving applications. At the same time, it also launched the sixth generation Robo Run unmanned vehicle, which is equipped with Baidu's sixth generation intelligent system solution and priced at 200000 yuan. Its overall vehicle cost has decreased by 60% compared to the fifth generation vehicle.
Guosheng Securities: Policy support+Robotaxi commercialization landing, accelerating the intelligent driving industry. On the policy side, the list of demonstration cities for "Che Lu Yun" has been implemented, and local policy documents have been successively issued. Currently, 20 cities (consortia) including Beijing and Shanghai have been included in the application pilot cities nationwide. In terms of business model, with mature autonomous driving capabilities and a new generation of vehicles, Carrot Run has obvious cost and price advantages. The company aims to achieve a break even point by the end of 2024 and enter a profitable period in 2025. Against the backdrop of mature technology and commercialization, the intelligent driving sector is expected to experience strong catalysis, and the industry chain is expected to continue to benefit.
Ping An Securities: Carrot Run has achieved a surge in order volume in Wuhan, reflecting the gradual maturity of the business model of autonomous driving in the online ride hailing scene. China attaches great importance to the development of the field of autonomous driving. With the introduction of relevant favorable policies at the national and local levels, the commercial environment for autonomous driving in China will continue to optimize. The "Wuhan case" is expected to be accelerated and replicated in other cities, and autonomous driving is expected to use this scenario to accelerate the process of commercial landing. We are optimistic about investment opportunities in the field of autonomous driving.
Dongfang Securities: The integration of vehicle, road, and cloud provides infrastructure support for autonomous driving. Since June, Beijing, Wuhan and other places have successively launched demonstration projects for vehicle road cloud integration. On July 3rd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other ministries announced the list of pilot cities for the "vehicle road cloud integration" application of intelligent connected vehicles, and identified 20 cities (consortia) as pilot cities for the "vehicle road cloud integration" application of intelligent connected vehicles. The successive introduction of policies related to vehicle road cloud proves that China's integrated planning of vehicle road cloud has comprehensiveness and continuity. High level autonomous driving based on vehicle road collaboration is a direction that the Chinese government firmly supports and focuses on developing. Autonomous driving has high requirements for vehicle to road cloud infrastructure. With strong support from the government, autonomous driving is expected to enter a period of rapid development.