Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. CITIC Securities: Fiscal policy is currently the focus of market attention, and the overall policy statement of the Ministry of Finance has exceeded expectations. The change in policy thinking is more important than the magnitude of the intensity; The current market is in a transitional stage from an expected major reversal to a major turning point in the market. After the initial pulse like rise, the long short game in the market has intensified, and the entry rhythm of incremental funds outside the market has slowed down. However, the potential scale of funds entering the market is still large. It is expected that the market will gradually shift from being driven by fund sentiment to being driven by fundamental verification, and the market characteristics will shift from pulse like ups and downs to stabilizing and slowly rising.
2. Cyberspace Administration of China: Recently, some online accounts have fabricated rumors in the fields of public policies, social livelihoods, and emergencies through methods such as making up things out of nothing, transplanting rumors, and stirring up old news, seriously misleading netizens' understanding and causing public panic. The cyberspace administration department has guided website platforms to continuously increase monitoring and disposal efforts, and has dealt with a total of 8583 illegal and irregular accounts.
3. CCTV News: The sixth Chief Executive election of the Macao Special Administrative Region will be held on October 13th. Cen Haohui was elected as the candidate for the sixth Chief Executive of the Macau Special Administrative Region with a high number of votes.
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of October 12th, 59.8% of autumn grain has been harvested nationwide, 1.6 percentage points faster than the same period last year, with a daily harvest area of about 30 million mu for 8 consecutive days.
5. Central Meteorological Observatory: Starting from the 14th, a new wave of cold air will affect the northern regions of China. On the 14th and 15th, the temperature in the central eastern and northeastern regions of Inner Mongolia will drop by 6-10 ℃, with local cooling exceeding 12 ℃; The above areas are accompanied by 5-6 levels, with gusts reaching 7-8 levels.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.55% at 3217.74 points, down 3.56% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 3.92% at 10060.74 points, down 4.45% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed down 5.06% at 2100.87 points, down 3.41% for the week.
2. Last Thursday, the Hang Seng Index closed up 2.98% at 21251.98 points, down 6.53% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 2.05% at 4736.10 points, down 9.39% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 3.46% at 7620.74 points, down 6.57% for the week.
3. China Fund News: As of October 13th, the largest Chinese stock ETF listed in the United States has exceeded $10 billion, reaching $10.58 billion. This is the first time that a US listed Chinese stock ETF has surpassed $10 billion. Recently, the Chinese market has bottomed out and rebounded, with a surge of funds flowing in and some Chinese stock ETFs experiencing significant growth in size.
4. Securities firm China: Recently, several funds with soaring net asset values have triggered fund redemptions due to accelerated recovery. The fund size of many fund products has significantly decreased compared to three months ago, leading to the forced liquidation of fund products after heavy holdings surged. Industry insiders believe that due to the market performance in the past three years, investors' long-term accumulation of bear market thinking may reflect the current healthy state of the market moving towards a slow rise.
5. Shanghai Stock Exchange News: The private equity industry is undergoing a 'major reshuffle'. As of October 11th, the number of fines issued by securities regulatory bureaus in various regions for private equity this year has exceeded 120, surpassing the total number of fines issued for the whole of last year. At the same time, since the beginning of this year, the number of private equity cancellations has exceeded 1200, and the proportion of voluntary cancellations of private equity has significantly increased.
6. New stock subscription: This week, there were 3 new stock subscriptions, 2 on the ChiNext board and 1 on the Science and Technology Innovation board, namely Suzhou Tianmai, New Aluminum Era, and Laplace.
7. Restricted and unlocked: This week, a total of 79 restricted shares were unlocked, with a total of 2.93 billion shares unlocked and a market value of 42.906 billion yuan. Among them, Zhuhai Guanyu ranked first on the unlocking list with 5.796 billion yuan, while Kidswant and Liancheng CNC ranked second and third with 4.388 billion yuan and 3.781 billion yuan respectively.
8. Baota Industrial: The company is planning a major asset restructuring. As of the disclosure date of this announcement, the audit, evaluation, and other work related to the planned assets and the planned assets are being carried out according to plan. The specific transaction price has not yet been determined, and the restructuring still needs to go through necessary internal decision-making procedures and obtain approval from the competent regulatory authorities before it can be officially implemented. There is uncertainty about whether it can be implemented.
9. Guangzhi Technology: The company plans to purchase 100% of the shares of Pioneer Electric Technology through issuing shares and paying cash, and also plans to issue stocks to no more than 35 specific investors to raise matching funds. The company's stock will resume trading on Monday, October 14th.
10. Congratulations: The company plans to issue 66.3544 million A-shares to Anhui Xinhong Equity Investment Co., Ltd., accounting for 17.51% of the company's total share capital before this issuance. The issuance price is 12.81 yuan per share. The raised funds will be used for the Xilinmen Smart Home Industrial Park project (Phase II) and to supplement working capital.
11. Wanrun Corporation: The company has signed an agreement with BOE Materials, Debon Technology, and Yeda Economic Development to jointly invest in the establishment of Yantai BOE Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (tentative name) with a total investment of 800 million yuan. Among them, the company contributed 160 million yuan, accounting for 20% of the total investment. The joint venture company will carry out research and sales of electronic specialized materials.
12. Shanying International: SVP, through its subsidiary Coniferous Bidco AB, intends to issue a public cash offer to the shareholders of Nordic Paper to acquire all of its equity at a cash price of SEK 50.00 per share.
13. Kemei Diagnosis: Shareholder Shanghai Peixi and concerted action person HJ CAPITAL plan to reduce their holdings of the company's shares by no more than 12.0332 million shares due to funding needs, with a total reduction ratio not exceeding 3% of the company's total share capital.
14. Huada New Materials: The board of directors of the company has received a proposal from Chairman Shao Mingxiang, suggesting that the company use its own or self raised funds to repurchase some of the issued A-shares. The repurchased shares are intended for implementing equity incentives or cancellation, with a total repurchase fund of no less than 100 million yuan and no more than 200 million yuan.
15. Zhende Medical: Previously, Xu Changyuan, the concerted action person of the company's controlling shareholder, planned to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3%. On October 11th, the company received a notification letter from Xu Changyuan, who decided to terminate this share reduction plan. As of now, Xuchang Garden has not reduced its holdings in the company.
16. Defu Technology: Gansu Tuozhen Equity Investment Fund Partnership Enterprise (Limited Partnership), which holds more than 5% of the shares, and its concerted action party Suzhou Ruixiao Pengtai Investment Management Partnership Enterprise (Limited Partnership) plan to reduce their holdings of the company's shares by no more than 9.4548 million shares (1.50% of the company's total share capital) within 3 months after 15 trading days from the date of disclosure of this announcement.
17. Qingyan Environment: Shareholders holding more than 5% of the shares, Qingyan Venture Capital, plan to reduce their holdings of the company's shares by no more than 3.1899 million shares, accounting for 2.95% of the company's total share capital, within 3 months after 15 trading days from the date of announcement disclosure. The reason for reducing holdings is for business development needs.
18. Mingyang Electric: Shenzhen Venture Capital, a shareholder holding more than 5% of the shares, plans to reduce its holdings of the company's shares by no more than 9.366 million shares (accounting for no more than 3.00% of the company's total share capital) through centralized bidding and block trading within 3 months after the disclosure of this announcement for 15 trading days.
19. Lante Optics: It is expected to achieve a net profit of 158 million to 168 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 72.09% to 82.99% year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company achieved an increase in sales revenue in major product segments such as optical prisms, glass non spherical lenses, and glass wafers.
20. Shanghai Electric Power: It is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.252 billion yuan to 2.68 billion yuan from January to September, an increase of 53.3% to 82.44% year-on-year. The performance growth is mainly due to the continuous improvement of the marginal revenue of coal-fired power plants, as well as the increased efficiency of controlling and participating coal-fired power enterprises.
21. SITWEI: It is expected to achieve operating revenue of RMB 4.1 billion to RMB 4.3 billion in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 131% to 143%; Realize a net profit of 252 million yuan to 292 million yuan, turning losses around year-on-year.
Wealth Focus
1. Beijing Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau: In 2023, the salary levels of most industries will maintain a year-on-year growth trend, with industries related to new quality productivity such as intelligent/high-end manufacturing, integrated circuits, and new generation information technology leading in salary levels. The salary levels of life service industries such as catering/accommodation and transportation/logistics will maintain a good growth rate.
2. The Shenzhen Municipal Administration for Market Regulation has recently approved and released the "Guidelines for Pre application Guidance Services for Personal Bankruptcy", which standardizes the process and relevant points of government departments providing pre application guidance services for personal bankruptcy in the form of local standards, further improving the personal bankruptcy system.
3. Guangdong Financial Regulatory Bureau: Carry out special governance work on illegal sales of overseas insurance products and illegal cross-border insurance coverage throughout its jurisdiction (excluding Shenzhen). This special governance covers all banking and insurance institutions under the jurisdiction of the Guangdong Regulatory Bureau, and the investigation includes whether institutions and their employees participate in, organize or assist in the illegal sale (including illegal promotion and advertising) of overseas insurance products and illegal cross-border insurance policies.
Industry Observation
1. Minister of Industry and Information Technology Jin Zhuanglong: We must take the construction of a world-class salt lake industrial base as a major task to promote new industrialization and develop new quality productivity. Stabilize potassium, expand lithium, break through magnesium, strengthen equipment updates and technological upgrades, create a distinctive and advantageous industrial chain, and build an advanced manufacturing cluster.
2. China Iron and Steel Association: In early October, the social inventory of 5 major varieties of steel in 21 cities reached 7.63 million tons, an increase of 150000 tons compared to the previous month, an increase of 2.0%, and the first increase after a continuous decline for 80 days; An increase of 340000 tons from the beginning of the year, up 4.7%; A year-on-year decrease of 1.61 million tons, a decrease of 17.4%.
3. Gamalytic: Domestic game developer Game Science has successfully entered the top Steam publisher rankings, ranking 12th, surpassing well-known companies such as CD Projekt Red, FromSoftware, and Larian Studios. Data shows that the total revenue of game science has exceeded 1 billion US dollars.
4. First Financial: Recently, a group of large domestic steel companies such as Baosteel, Ansteel, and Benxi Iron and Steel announced the adjustment of their product price policies for November, all of which significantly increased their ex factory prices compared to the previous month, with a maximum increase of 600 yuan per ton. The significant improvement in orders compared to the previous period has indirectly driven up price recovery.
5. Zhao Zhiguo, Chief Engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: The scale of China's AI core industry is constantly improving, and the number of enterprises has exceeded 4500. Nearly 200 generative artificial intelligence service models have been registered and launched to provide services to the public, with over 600 million registered users.
6. State Administration of Taxation: In the first three quarters, the sales revenue of high-tech industries increased by 11.6% year-on-year. Among them, the high-tech service industry and high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 13.7% and 8.6% respectively year-on-year. The sales revenue of core industries in the digital economy increased by 7.7% year-on-year.
7. CCTV News: After the National Day holiday, prices of hairy crabs have plummeted in many places. In a seafood market in Chengdu, the price of 2.5 taels of mother crabs is 15 yuan per piece, which has been reduced by nearly half compared to before the National Day holiday. Some merchants have stated that they expect prices to drop by another 10% in a week.
8. CGTN reporter team: The Chairman of the Lebanese Chinese Chamber of Commerce stated that due to the impact of the explosion of communication equipment, Lebanon and many countries will reduce the import of technology products from the West and increase the import of electronic products, including mobile phones, from China.
9. Xinhua News Agency: Professor Ma Liqiang's team from the School of Materials Science and Engineering at Wuhan University of Technology has developed a composite aqueous electrolyte with an initial solvation shell that does not contain organic solvent molecules, overcoming the slow desolvation kinetics of traditional composite aqueous electrolytes at low temperatures.
Financial data
1. New Third Board: Last week, 12 new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 1.755 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 238.95%. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6153.
2. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 4:30 pm against the US dollar at 7.0676, up 0.1568% and down 0.7412% for the week; The central parity rate of RMB was reported at 7.0731, down 0.0000%, and down 0.9376% for the week.
3. Shanghai Environmental Protection Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 979500 tons, with a total trading volume of 96.5432 million yuan and a closing price of 100.95 yuan/ton, up 1.48% for the week.
4. US stock market: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.97% to 42863.86 points, up 1.21% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 0.61% to 5815.03 points, with a weekly increase of 1.11%; The Nasdaq rose 0.33% to 18342.94 points, with a weekly increase of 1.13%.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 0.85% to 19373.83 points, up 1.32% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 0.48% to 7577.89 points, with a weekly increase of 0.48%; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.19% to 8253.65 points, down 0.33% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX gold futures closed up 1.02% at $2674.2 per ounce, up 0.04% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures fell 0.38% to $75.56 per barrel, up 1.45% for the week. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell 0.45% to $79.04 per barrel, up 1.06% for the week.
Huatai Securities: Finance is the "real gold and silver" that better solves "urgent needs", so the market is highly concerned about fiscal policies; There has been a shift in the direction and level of fiscal thinking. In terms of usage, it is no longer just infrastructure, but mainly includes four aspects: debt conversion+bank capital injection+real estate+people's livelihood. The next step is to pay attention to the meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, or provide further answers on the amount, and focus on the expected difference. Due to factors such as policy processes, specific numbers were not provided at this press conference, but sincerity was expressed and expected space was left; The impact on the economy is to resolve tail risks, smooth the economic cycle, and help achieve this year's goals.
Minsheng Securities: The Ministry of Finance has given hints of "strength" in multiple responses regarding the scale related issues that the market is most concerned about. For example, in terms of word frequency, there are 7 mentions of "large", 4 mentions of "deficit", and 4 mentions of borrowing. It is expected that this round of incremental policies will be a large-scale plan for many years, and will not fall behind the curve in terms of pace and scale. The suspense of the "scale" of this round of incremental policies is expected to be implemented in the next two weeks. The addition of some new funds, the landing of existing funds, and the stabilization of the real estate market have formed a certain short-term driving force for the economy, and the economy may show a stage of stabilization. However, the "large-scale" incremental stimulus that needs to be announced in the future may have more driving effects reflected in next year and beyond.
► CITIC Securities: This meeting marks the central government's increasing leverage, repairing the balance sheets of local governments and real estate departments, and is also the long-awaited "central outcome" in the market. The linkage between central finance and monetary easing is essentially an expansion of central government credit, and for the market, it is a liquidity feast. Under the liquidity feast, the trend of stocks and bonds has already been answered by history, and both stocks and bonds have performed well. History will not repeat itself perfectly, and compared to 2014-2015, the market needs to consider economic growth and industrial opportunities more in this round of deflationary paths. Although the intensity and specific financial details of this round of debt restructuring will only be known after legal procedures. But the 'largest measure of supportive debt in recent years' is worth looking forward to by the market.
Huafu Securities: The impact on the market includes a positive overall impact on the stock market and positive reactions from commodities. The short-term impact of ten-year treasury bond is neutral and slightly negative. If it runs to more than 2.2%, it is still positive. Long term central leverage increases the supply of long-term interest rates, and the yield curve is steep. Short term urban investment bonds benefit from supply contraction and financing pressure, while in the medium term, attention is paid to the transformation and differentiation of urban investment. The market's upward slope may slow down in the next month to quarter, and the structural market may rotate or accelerate.