Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. Statistics Bureau: From January to September, industrial enterprises above designated size in China achieved a total profit of 5228.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; Achieved a revenue of 99.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. At the end of September, the asset liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 57.7%, unchanged from the same period last year.
2. World Bank's Zhang Wencai: The world economy seems to be in the final stage of a 'soft landing'. It is predicted that global economic growth will remain at 2.6% in 2024, with a slight increase to an average of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, global inflation rates are expected to reach a three-year low.
3. International Monetary Fund (IMF): The world is at risk of falling into a path of low growth and high debt. Trump, the Republican candidate, may return to the White House, which will usher in a new era of trade protectionism and trillions of dollars of additional US debt. The aging of the labor force and slow productivity growth will reduce the average annual GDP growth rate of the European continent to only 1.45% in the decade ending in 2029.
4. The National Civil Service Administration: The registration for the public selection and transfer of civil servants in the central organs for the year 2025 is about to begin. Candidates can log in to the "Special Website for the Public Selection and Transfer of Civil Servants in the Central Organs for the Year 2025" from 8:00 on October 28th to 18:00 on November 6th to register. A total of 41 departments from the central government participated in this open selection and transfer, with a planned selection of 371 people.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.59% at 3299.70 points, up 1.17% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed up 1.71% at 10619.85 points, up 2.53% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed up 2.93% at 2238.90 points, with a weekly increase of 2.00%.
2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.49% at 20590.15 points, down 1.03% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 1.21% at 4538.03 points, down 1.37% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 0.35% at 7385.26 points, down 1.16% for the week.
3. CITIC Securities: For stock investors, it is not advisable to fall into a pure dividend style mindset. Under the current trend of aiming to reverse deflation, even from a rational and conservative perspective, it is possible to consider allocating to the middle zone (technology, medicine, or themes are all in this direction), and gradually increase the allocation in a pro cyclical direction by observing the progress of policy intensity.
4. Haitong Strategy: The market is currently undergoing a bear bull transition, with policies taking the lead and macro and micro fundamentals improving to keep up. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of total A net profit in 2024 will reach 2%. Structurally, technology manufacturing with better fundamentals, mid to high end manufacturing with both supply and demand advantages, or mid-term mainline.
5. CITIC Securities: A-shares are still in the policy game trading stage dominated by active capital inflows. Policy expectations dominate the short-term market, and the growth style has greater elasticity. After the policy is fully implemented and the price signal is verified and stabilized, institutional funds may usher in an active entry opportunity. The steadily rising market will continue for a longer period of time, and at that time, the high-performance growth and domestic demand sectors are expected to continue to dominate.
6. Shanghai Stock Exchange News: In the third quarter, Central Huijin significantly increased its holdings of multiple broad-based ETFs, with only four CSI 300 ETFs and Huaxia SSE 50 ETFs costing 300 billion yuan. However, Central Huijin has not subscribed to growth style ETFs such as Southern CSI 500 and E Fund Growth Enterprise Market, indicating that it still tends to undervalue its underlying assets.
7. As of October 26th, 1046 Shenzhen listed companies have disclosed their third quarter reports. 1046 Shenzhen listed companies have achieved a total operating revenue of approximately 4.38 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.12% over the past three years. The overall performance of Shenzhen listed companies is steadily improving, with about 60% of companies achieving revenue growth and about 80% of companies achieving profitability.
8. As of October 26th, a total of 26 billion dollar private equity products have appeared on the list of the top ten circulating shareholders of 88 listed companies at the end of the third quarter, with a total market value of 37.46 billion yuan. Positions are focused on industries such as optical optoelectronics, computer equipment, specialized equipment, and power grid equipment.
9. Securities Times: As of October 25th, the national team funds, represented by social security funds, operated at a low level and increased their holdings in the third quarter. The market value of their holdings increased by 2.878 billion yuan, and about 80 stocks were bought or increased, while only 21 stocks were cumulatively reduced.
10. Yiwei Lithium Energy: The first phase of the 628Ah energy storage plant project will be put into operation in December, and this additional production capacity will be a strong supplement. More and more customers are paying attention to the performance of the product itself and its medium to long term performance. As a high-quality production capacity manufacturer in the industry, production and sales are currently balanced, and high-quality production capacity is in high demand.
11. Dagang Holdings: The controlling shareholder Sun Jianxi has signed a Share Transfer Agreement with Mangrui, which is actually controlled by Chen Ke, and the actual controller intends to change to Chen Ke. The company's stock will resume trading from October 28th.
12. Haofeng Technology: Received the "Notice of Administrative Penalty in advance", and the company's stock trading has been subject to other risk warnings. The stock abbreviation has been changed from "Haofeng Technology" to "ST Haofeng".
13. New stock subscription: This week, there was only one new stock subscription from Juxing Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange.
14. Restricted and unlocked: This week, a total of 63 restricted shares were unlocked, with a total of 2.285 billion shares unlocked and a market value of 30.214 billion yuan. Among them, Shenzhen Chengjiao ranked first on the unlocking list with 5.131 billion yuan, while China National Materials International and China Resources Materials ranked second and third with 4.908 billion yuan and 3.15 billion yuan respectively.
15. Changshan Beiming plans to implement asset replacement, introduce new energy and smart city businesses that have synergies with software business, and divest textile business.
16. Hailian News: The controlling shareholder intends to plan a major asset restructuring between Hailian News and Hangzhou Steam Turbine. The company's A-share stock will be suspended from trading starting from October 28th, and the expected suspension time will not exceed 10 trading days.
7. Huaru Technology plans to repurchase shares for 20 million to 40 million yuan, with a repurchase price not exceeding 26 yuan per share.
18. Yonghe Shares: Shareholder Zhejiang Xinghao plans to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 1.58%.
19. Kesen Technology: Shareholders plan to reduce their holdings of the company's shares by no more than 5.5 million shares, not exceeding 0.99% of the company's total share capital.
20. Northern Stock: Tewo Shanghai plans to reduce its stake in the company by no more than 3%.
Industry Observation
1. Cui Dongshu: From January to September, the automotive industry generated a revenue of 7359.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%; The cost is 645.31 billion yuan, an increase of 3%; The profit was 336 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and the profit margin of 4.6% is still relatively low. With the expansion of production scale in the automobile market, PPI has declined, and the cost of upstream lithium carbonate has decreased. However, the price war in the automobile market is severe, and the overall pressure on automobile companies to reduce profits has increased.
2. 21st Century Business Herald: On October 27th, Xiaopeng Huitian Flying Car Intelligent Manufacturing Base officially started construction. This is the world's first flying car factory to use modern assembly lines for large-scale production. It will be used to produce the flying body part of the split flying car "land carrier", with a planned annual production capacity of 10000 units.
3. Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily: On October 27th, the on-site negotiation/bidding for the 2024 medical insurance catalog officially kicked off. At 2 pm on the same day, the Medical Insurance Bureau named companies such as Renfu Pharmaceutical, Yunding Xinyao, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, and Kelun Pharmaceutical to enter the negotiations. There are about 20 negotiation/bidding companies in the morning session, and the drugs mainly include antihypertensive drugs, antiviral drugs, and other varieties.
4. According to Hao Hongfeng, Chairman of Jiuxian Group, the largest vertical e-commerce platform for alcoholic beverages in China, the problem of price inversion will be difficult to solve in the next 3 to 5 years. The growth of some liquor companies is fake, it is achieved by squeezing goods from distributors. The inventory of dealers is now at a critical point, and if manufacturers continue to stockpile, it will eventually collapse.
5. Securities Times: While demand for Nvidia's new generation AI chip GB200 has exploded, the once popular H100 chip has cooled down, and its rental price has fallen by more than 50% compared to its peak period. Since the first half of the year, domestic computing power prices have shown a downward trend. Due to the decline in demand for large model training and early "hoarding" leading to oversupply, small-scale computing power suppliers may face losses and be eliminated by the market.
6. OpenAI has announced a new AI generative graph solution called sCM. SCM only requires two steps to generate high-quality samples, which can improve the efficiency of text generation by about 50 times, and the quality of generated samples can be compared with "strong diffusion models in the industry", providing a new solution for AI text generation.
Financial data
1. New Third Board: Last week, 21 new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 1.108 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.23% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6151.
2. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1219, down 0.1209%, and a weekly decline of 0.2590%; The central parity rate of RMB was reported at 7.1090, up 0.2749%, with a weekly increase of 0.2582%.
3. Shanghai Environmental Protection Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 1.3177 million tons, with a total trading volume of 137.3949 million yuan and a closing price of 104.25 yuan/ton, up 0.71% for the week.
4. US stock market: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.61% to 42114.40 points, down 2.68% for the week; The S&P 500 index fell 0.03% to 5808.12 points, with a weekly decline of 0.96%; The Nasdaq rose 0.56% to 18518.61 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 0.11% to 19463.59 points, down 0.99% for the week; The French CAC40 index fell 0.08% to 7497.54 points, down 1.52% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 0.25% to 8248.84 points, down 1.31% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX gold futures closed up 0.43% at $2760.8 per ounce, up 1.13% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI December crude oil futures rose 2.27% to $71.78 per barrel, up 4.50% for the week. Brent crude oil futures for December rose 2.25% to $76.05 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 4.09%.
Dongwu Securities: Coal prices did not experience a significant drop during the off-season from September to October, and gradually entered the traditional peak season from late October. Even though the economy was sluggish as before, coal prices still had strong upward momentum during the peak season. And the international standard coal price has risen to 153 US dollars, benchmarking the domestic 5500 kcal thermal coal level of about 930 yuan/ton. The current domestic coal price is around 850 yuan, with strong upward momentum. Furthermore, the introduction of economic stimulus policies will increase market expectations for macroeconomic stabilization and even recovery, which is conducive to the recovery of total demand, strengthening the logic of coal supply shortage, and continuously enhancing the momentum of coal price increase.
► Xinda Securities: Under the situation of increasing coal production and ensuring supply nationwide, the tight and tightening coal supply may continue throughout the 14th Five Year Plan and even the 15th Five Year Plan. It may be necessary to plan and construct a batch of high-quality production capacity to ensure China's medium and long-term energy coal demand. Against the backdrop of accelerated westward shift in coal layout, significant increase in resource costs and investment per ton of coal, the rise in rigid costs of economic development is expected to support the maintenance of a high coal price center. In addition, the injection of assets from state-owned coal enterprises has already begun, highlighting the high certainty of profitability and growth for high-quality coal companies. Currently, the coal sector has high performance, high cash, and high dividend attributes, combined with the industry's high prosperity, long cycle, and high barrier characteristics, as well as inverted valuations in the primary and secondary markets. The coal sector has both offensive and defensive investment capabilities.
Securities Times: The reshaping of the valuation of the coal sector is on its way, reflecting not only the profound changes in the supply and demand structure of the coal industry, gradually becoming a "public utility", but also the investment strategy of high dividend assets that are more favored by the market under the background of asset scarcity and the downward trend of risk-free returns. We recommend high-quality, high profit stability and predictable profit leaders. In terms of thermal coal, it jumped as scheduled and the trend will continue, with the first target at 880-900 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, a few coal mines in the early stage have resumed normal production recently, resulting in an increase in output and a slight improvement in overall capacity utilization.
Debon Securities: Short term view on price, judging that the price of bifocal will stabilize at the bottom. The high production of molten iron and the low inventory of steel mills, coupled with the urgent need to replenish inventory, result in sustained demand for raw materials. In the medium to long term, with the improvement of macro expectations in 2024, the price of bifocal is expected to fluctuate and rebound. In September 2024, the State Council Information Office released a series of real estate policy combinations, including a reduction of the expected interest rate for existing housing loans by 0.5 percentage points, a unified down payment loan ratio for first and second homes to 15%, and an increase in the support ratio for affordable housing loans to 100%. With further efforts to stabilize real estate policies, black demand is expected to stabilize.