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Weekly Financial Summary 2024-05-20

Date: 2024-05-20
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Financial attention

Macroeconomics


1. The National Development and Reform Commission: At present, 11000 of the 15000 additional treasury bond issuance projects have been launched, with the construction rate reaching 72%. The remaining projects will be all started before the end of June.

2. Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics: Guangdong needs to maintain the first driving force, strengthen the second driving force, and stabilize the third driving force, which is to maintain a stable natural growth of the permanent population, stabilize the inflow from outside the province, enhance the net migration, transform the inflow from outside the province into registered residence population, and enhance the stability of the permanent population.

3. China Weather Network: At 10:00 on May 19, an orange rainstorm warning was issued. It is expected that from 14:00 on May 19 to 14:00 on May 20, some regions in southern Guangxi, most of Guangdong, southern Fujian, southeast Yunnan, and northern Hainan Island will have heavy to rainstorm. Among them, southern Guangxi, southern Guangdong and other regions will have heavy rainstorm, and coastal areas in southeastern Guangxi and southwestern Guangdong will have extremely heavy rainstorm (250-300mm).

4. China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute: Since the official implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a new situation of regional cooperation has initially formed, sharing dividends and promoting development together. In 2025, the tariff reduction of RCEP will promote a growth of over 10% in exports of 15 members; By 2035, RCEP will result in a cumulative increase of 1.47% in regional investment.

5. Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province: Issuing the Guangzhou Comprehensive Vertical Transportation Network Plan (2023-2035). Five general airports will be planned and constructed in cities such as Panyu, Zengcheng, Nansha, Conghua, and Huangpu. At the same time, plan the layout of high-speed maglev channels and the construction of experimental lines between other mega cities.


Stock market inventory


1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.01% to 3154.03 points, down 0.02% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed up 1.10% at 9709.42 points, down 0.22% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed up 1.12% at 1864.94 points, down 0.70% for the week.

2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.91% to 19553.61 points, up 3.11% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.99% to 4112.59 points, up 3.79% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 0.92% at 6934.70 points, up 3.21% for the week.

3. Securities firm China: Since the second quarter, internationally renowned asset management institutions have been continuously researching A-shares. Famous institutions such as Temasek, Sequoia Capital, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group, Canadian Pension Fund Investment Corporation, Aberdeen, and Baida have all appeared at research conferences for medical listed companies. The focus of institutional investors is on the business development of listed companies, such as whether the company has differentiated competitive advantages, the catalysis of official policies on business, and the impact of centralized procurement policies on business.

4. China Fund News: As of May 18th, 835 active equity funds have been established in the form of holding period funds in the entire market, accounting for 16.2% of active equity funds, setting a new historical high; However, the scale of such products has been declining for three consecutive years, with a decline in scale exceeding the overall level of active equity funds during the same period.

5. Securities firm China: As of May 15th, more than 1000 funds have suspended large-scale subscriptions this year, and some funds have completely closed their doors and declined customers (A and C categories are not merged). Among the 73 funds that have completely suspended subscription, 38% are bond funds, 33% are QDII funds, and 14% are equity funds. Among the nearly a thousand funds that have suspended large-scale subscriptions, bond funds account for 49%, 26% are QDII funds, 14% are money market funds, and 11% are equity funds.

6. Minsheng Securities: Last week, port coal prices remained stable, but it is estimated that the contraction of domestic coal production will still be the main tone for the whole year. Under the rigid supply, the center of coal prices for the whole year may be expected to move upwards. It is expected that the growth rate of hydroelectric power generation will be relatively high from now to mid July, partially squeezing thermal power. The upward trend of coal prices will not change, but the increase may be relatively limited; After mid July, the hydropower base will return to normal, coupled with the development of thermal power, and coal prices are expected to accelerate. By the end of the year, the price of thermal coal is expected to reach 1200 yuan/ton.

7. CITIC Securities: With the disclosure of economic data in April, the bottom of the fundamentals has been clarified, and real estate policies have launched multiple lines to support the real estate chain, boosting economic expectations for the second half of the year and further boosting market risk appetite. The budding optimism continues to accumulate, and the A-share market is expected to continue a steady upward trend. It is recommended to continue to focus on the three main themes of performance growth, low wave dividends, and activity, reduce rotational trading games, and focus on the varieties that intersect with the real estate chain in the short term.

8. Shenghe Resources: Ganzhou Chengguang Rare Earth New Materials Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to acquire 100% equity of Strandline Resources Limited's wholly-owned subsidiary, Strandline Resources UK Limited, and indirectly hold equity in four heavy sand mining projects located in Tanzania, namely Fungoni, Tajiri, Sudi, and Bagamoyo.

9. Huichuan Technology: Currently, the company has not entered the low altitude economic field related businesses, but maintains close attention to the industry. The timing of the company's entry into new business will be considered based on creating a closed loop of customer value.

10. Huilv Ecology: On May 19th, the company signed an Equity Transfer Intention Agreement and a Commitment Letter with Hangzhou Hangshiqing Zizeyuan No.1 Equity Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership) and Suzhou Juju Pengfei Entrepreneurship Investment Partnership (Limited Partnership). The company has acquired 30% equity of Wuhan Junheng Technology Co., Ltd. ("Wuhan Junheng") for a price not exceeding 195 million yuan.

11. Supor: The company's director Su Xianze, CFO Xu Bo, deputy general manager, and board secretary Ye Jide plan to reduce their holdings of 68400 shares, 47400 shares, and 16300 shares respectively in the secondary market through centralized bidding within 3 months after 15 trading days from the date of announcement disclosure, totaling no more than 132100 shares, and no more than 0.0166% of the company's total share capital after excluding repurchased shares in the repurchase special securities account.

12. New stock subscription: This week, a total of 2 new stock subscriptions were made, including 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange and 1 on the ChiNext board, namely Wanda Bearing and Huicheng Vacuum.

13. Restricted shares lifted: A total of 77 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 4.136 billion shares lifted and a market value of 54.323 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Zhongke Feice ranked first on the lifting ban list with 8.949 billion yuan, while Nanqiao Food and Nuotai Biotechnology ranked second and third with 6.025 billion yuan and 3.795 billion yuan respectively.


Industry observation


1. Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province: Strive to achieve the provincial target level of new energy vehicle sales by 2024; Home appliance sales increased by 6%, with 51000 electric bicycles being phased out and updated, and 5 new centralized sorting centers and recycling points for renewable resources added. By 2027, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 300000 units, with a penetration rate of over 50%; The recycling volume of scrapped cars is over 30000, and the trading volume of used cars is over 300000; The annual sales of household appliances have increased by 20% compared to 2023, and a total of 45 centralized sorting and processing centers for renewable resources have been built.

2. Ministry of Culture and Tourism: During this year's "5.19 China Tourism Day" event, the coordination between government, enterprises, banks, and businesses has become closer. Various regions have joined hands with industry associations, platform enterprises, telecommunications operators, financial platforms, etc., and launched more than 6300 measures in seven categories to benefit the people. A total of over 100 million yuan of consumption vouchers have been issued, including preferential measures such as scenic spot price reductions and free discounts, as well as free and discounted activities for tourism enterprises, to better meet the needs of popular culture and tourism consumption.

3. CCTV News: In 2023, the cumulative cement production of enterprises above designated size in China was about 2.023 billion tons, ranking first in the world for 38 consecutive years. Cement production accounts for over 50% of global production, with annual carbon dioxide emissions exceeding 1.2 billion tons.

4. China Energy News: China Nuclear Tianwan 200000kW mudflat photovoltaic demonstration project, the largest offshore photovoltaic project in China, officially started construction in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province on May 19. After the project is completed, it will save approximately 680000 tons of standard coal annually and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 1.77 million tons annually.

5. China Logistics Information Center: In the first quarter, logistics enterprises operated steadily, with positive improvements in cold chain logistics, cross-border international, and urban distribution businesses. Driven by favorable policies, multimodal transportation has shown an accelerated development trend, with the highest proportion of multimodal transportation services serving import and export trade. Nearly half of the surveyed logistics companies are involved in multimodal transportation business, accounting for an increase of about 6 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter.

6. Science and Technology Daily: The world's first case of open hole lateral drilling technology for buried hills has been successfully applied in China's first 100 billion cubic meter gas field - the Bozhong 19-6 condensate gas field, marking a significant technological breakthrough in the development of deep buried hill oil and gas reservoirs.

7. Meijingwang: China Shipbuilding Corporation's 718th Research Institute's independently developed China Shipbuilding (Handan) Pairui Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd. has the largest single hydrogen production capacity of 3000Nm in China ³/ The hydrogen production equipment for water electrolysis has recently been offline in Handan, Hebei. It is reported that the equipment has achieved a single hydrogen production of 2000Nm ³/ H to 3000Nm ³/ The leap of h can significantly increase single machine production capacity, reduce production input and operating costs.


Financial data


1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.2242, down 0.0748% and up 0.0055% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1045, down 0.0352% and 0.0479% for the week.

2. New Third Board: Last week, one new listed company was added with a transaction amount of 922 million, a decrease of 31.33% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6139.

3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 16100 tons, with a total transaction amount of 1.5657 million yuan and a closing price of 99.53 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.54%.

4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34% to close at 40003.59 points, up 1.24% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 0.12% to 5303.27 points, up 1.54% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.07% to 16685.97 points, up 2.11% for the week.

5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index fell 0.18% to close at 18704.42 points, down 0.36% for the week; The French CAC40 index fell 0.26% to close at 8167.50 points, down 0.63% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 0.22% to 8420.26 points, down 0.16% for the week.

6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.44% to $2419.8 per ounce, up 1.89% for the week.

7. Crude oil: Last Friday, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures rose 1.05% to $80.06 per barrel, up 2.3% for the week. Brent crude oil futures settled 0.85% higher at $83.98 per barrel, up 1.44% for the week.


Dongfang Securities: On May 17th, the central bank issued a series of new real estate policies, including the cancellation of the lower limit of commercial personal housing loan interest rates for first and second homes at the national level, a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans, and a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans. Both the down payment ratio for first-time home purchases and the down payment ratio for second homes have dropped to historical lows. The new real estate policy is conducive to increasing the willingness to purchase essential housing and promoting the improvement of the performance of real estate enterprises.

Dongwu Securities: Recently, many cities have issued policies to exchange old for new and relax purchase restrictions, with clear policy guidance. Recently, Hangzhou and Xi'an have completely lifted purchase restrictions, and only two cities in the north are still strictly implementing purchase restrictions in China. It is expected that they will gradually relax at a pace of "small steps and fast running". The policy of exchanging old for new in multiple locations requires more attention. Represented by multiple cities in Jiangsu and Zhengzhou, the state-owned enterprise platform under the government purchases existing residential properties as guaranteed rental housing, and residents need to purchase new houses with higher total prices for the sales proceeds. This policy stimulates replacement demand while reducing inventory.


Everbright Securities: From the details, there will still be more room for policy enhancements in the future. Firstly, the pressure of destocking in this round is relatively greater. On the one hand, as of April, the unsold area of residential commercial housing is close to 391 million square meters. However, due to a sharp decline in sales volume, the inventory depletion cycle has been passively prolonged. On the other hand, the leverage of resident stock debt is higher. Correspondingly, it requires greater support from the policy side. Secondly, many places have already implemented relevant policies in practice. Cancelling the down payment ratio and lower limit of loan interest rates for home purchases nationwide is inherently flexible. Therefore, the core pricing logic for the sustainability and intensity of the current market situation lies in the expectation of increased space for subsequent policies and the effectiveness of policy implementation.


Huachuang Securities: The appropriate allocation time for real estate stocks is in the range where the selling price of commercial housing stops falling but does not rise significantly. The month on month price comparison of newly-built commercial residential properties in 70 cities can be used as a synchronous indicator to measure the fundamentals. When the fundamentals can repeatedly confirm that prices have bottomed out, the ability of real estate companies to create value has bottomed out, and the market can even gradually deduce that there may be an opportunity for a round of price increase in the industry, it may be the best hitting point. Suggest waiting for the industry to appear on the right side. Focus on opportunities with relative certainty, 1) some real estate companies are the first to solve historical land storage problems, and the valuation center is expected to improve; 2) In the era of second-hand housing, intermediary companies with a certain moat; 3) Urban Village Renovation.


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