Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. The central bank and four other departments held a meeting to promote large-scale equipment updates and the financial work of exchanging old for new consumer goods. We must adhere to market orientation and government guidance, encourage advanced and eliminate backward, adhere to standard guidance and orderly improvement; We need to continuously improve comprehensive financial services and promote effective financial support for large-scale equipment updates and the trade in of consumer goods.
2. CCTV: During the May Day holiday, the market regulatory authorities in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region will continue to increase their supervision and inspection of market price behavior, strictly investigate and deal with illegal pricing behaviors such as price gouging, price fraud, and failure to clearly mark prices according to regulations in accordance with the law, and maintain the stability of regional market price order.
3. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce: Starting from 2024, we will carry out the construction of modern commercial circulation system pilot cities in batches. The pilot work is planned to be implemented in three batches (2024-2026), with a construction period of three years. It is planned to support no more than 20 cities in 2024. The pilot scale will be determined based on the implementation situation in subsequent years, and priority will be given to supporting eligible cities in provinces not covered by policies.
4. State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC): Currently, 19 regions have established a green channel for multi departmental linkage in the disposal of "two non" and "two assets". We need to take multiple measures to reduce losses and stop bleeding, especially in areas where the problem of "small scattered weak" is more prominent and central enterprises, and strive to achieve "zero losses" within a specified period of time. Central enterprises and local large state-owned enterprises, especially industry-leading enterprises, should accelerate the implementation of the "AI+" special action and take the lead in seizing the opportunity of artificial intelligence empowering traditional industries.
5. Immigration Bureau: Starting from May 6th, policies and measures will be introduced to facilitate the entry and exit management of enterprises for the benefit of the people. In 20 cities including Beijing, a pilot program will be implemented to implement the "full online processing" of issuing and replacing entry documents. If the documents are damaged, lost or stolen, and the validity period is less than 6 months, you can apply for a replacement of the same type of documents online through the immigration bureau's government service platform, achieving the goal of "not running away at once". The implementation of "intelligent express processing" and "nationwide universal processing" for business endorsements in Hong Kong and Macao.
6. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced new measures to resume cross-strait tourism, which will take the lead in restoring tourism for Fujian residents to Mazu. After the resumption of direct sea passenger flights from Pingtan to Taiwan, Fujian residents will resume group tourism to Taiwan.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.17% to 3088.64 points, up 0.76% for the week; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.15% to close at 9463.91 points, up 1.99% for the week; The ChiNext Index rose 3.34% to close at 1823.74 points, with a weekly increase of 3.86%.
2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.12% to 17651.15 points, up 8.80% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.61% to 3718.27 points, up 13.43% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 2.44% at 6269.76 points, up 9.10% for the week.
3. Securities Times: The shrinkage of subscription wealth management by listed companies is still ongoing. In the first quarter of this year, the willingness of A-share listed companies to purchase various types of financial products fell to the "freezing point" in the past five years. With the increasing operational pressure on listed companies and the difficulty of refinancing, in order to ensure the safety of funds and liquidity needs, the funds and expectations for listed companies to purchase wealth management products have weakened this year.
4. Caixin News Agency: It is rumored that securities operating institutions will make adjustments to the system of compensatory leave during this year's May Day holiday, and must comply with the overall national regulations on compensatory leave. Even if the market does not open, they must work normally if they take compensatory leave. Industry insiders have stated that this year's May Day holiday for securities and fund companies is consistent with previous years and there are no rumored adjustments. April 28th and May 11th are normal rest days.
5. China Merchants Securities: The recent significant northward inflow and rebound in Hong Kong stocks are mainly affected by the rebound in China's economic fundamentals, as well as the easing of market concerns about China US relations. Considering that the valuations of major markets such as the United States, Japan, and India are at high levels and Chinese assets are currently in a valuation slump, it is expected that more foreign investment will return to China, driving A-shares back to an upward trend.
6. China Gold: In 2023, its operating revenue was 56.364 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.61%; The net profit was 973 million yuan, an increase of 27.2% year-on-year. We plan to distribute a cash dividend of 4.50 yuan (including tax) per 10 shares to all shareholders.
7. Wen's shares: In the first quarter, the operating revenue was 21.842 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.37%; The net loss was 1.236 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.749 billion yuan in the same period last year. In 2023, the operating revenue was 89.902 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%; Net loss of 6.39 billion yuan, net profit of 5.289 billion yuan in the same period last year, a decrease of 220.81% year-on-year; Dividend of 1 yuan (including tax) will be distributed for every 10 shares.
8. Wuliangye: In the first quarter, its operating revenue was 34.833 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.86%; The net profit was 14.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.98%. In 2023, the operating revenue was 83.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.58%; The net profit was 30.211 billion yuan, an increase of 13.19% year-on-year, and it is planned to distribute 46.70 yuan (including tax) to 10 shares.
9. Sinopec: In the first quarter, its operating revenue was 789.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%; Net profit was 18.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%; Basic earnings per share are 0.153 yuan. The equivalent oil and gas production was 128.78 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%.
10. Shengxin Lithium Energy: In the first quarter, its operating revenue was 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.42%; The net profit loss was 144 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 131%. The decrease in net profit is mainly due to the decrease in sales prices of lithium salt products compared to the same period last year, and the lag in changes in raw material prices compared to products.
11. Tianwei Video: In the first quarter, the operating revenue was 269 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; The net profit was 2.4668 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 86.84%, mainly due to a decrease in rental income and a decline in basic business income.
12. High tech development: The major asset restructuring has been terminated, and there is a significant uncertainty risk in whether it can continue to be promoted in the future. There is uncertainty regarding whether the future company can obtain control of Sichuan Huakun Zhenyu Intelligent Technology, as well as the timing and trading plan for obtaining control. Investors are advised to invest rationally and pay attention to investment risks.
13. ST Zuojiang: The audited net profit is negative and the operating income is less than 100 million yuan. The 2023 financial statements have been audited with a non-standard audit opinion, and the company's stock will be delisted. The stock will be suspended from trading starting from April 29, 2024.
14. New stock subscription: This week, only one new stock subscription was made by Ruidi Zhiqu on the ChiNext board.
15. Restricted shares lifted: This week, a total of 63 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 4.001 billion shares lifted and a market value of 41.366 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Changyuan Power ranked first on the lifting ban list with 6.457 billion yuan, while Jiahe Food and Xinyichang ranked second and third with 4.623 billion yuan and 4.407 billion yuan respectively.
Industry observation
1. The Ministry of Commerce has issued the "Three Year Action Plan for Digital Commerce (2024-2026)", proposing specific measures to promote digital development in various fields of commerce. Carry out actions such as "strengthening the foundation of digital commerce", "expanding consumption through digital commerce", "promoting trade through digital commerce", "promoting production through digital commerce", and "opening up digital commerce". Create a "4+N" online consumption matrix and carry out four national online promotional activities: the "National Online New Year Shopping Festival", the "Double Product Online Shopping Festival", the "Digital Commerce Revitalizes Agriculture and Celebrates Harvest", and the "Silk Road Cloud Product E-commerce Festival".
2. The Central Cyberspace Administration: We will continue to strengthen the tracking and research of enterprise related network infringement information, deeply analyze the characteristics and causes, focus on solving difficult problems, and continuously improve the ability level of enterprise related network infringement reporting. Intensify the publicity of infringement reports, expose typical cases, and strengthen the theme and effectiveness promotion of enterprise network infringement reports. Intensify the punishment for infringing accounts, strengthen the publicity and notification of typical cases and accounts.
3. The National Development and Reform Commission and seven other departments have issued the Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Construction of Mine Intelligence and Promoting Mine Safety Development. By 2026, a complete standard system for mine intelligence will be established, mining data integration and interoperability will be promoted, and environmental intelligent perception and major disaster risk intelligent warning will be achieved. The proportion of intelligent coal mine production capacity in China will not be less than 60%, and the proportion of intelligent working faces will not be less than 30%.
4. The Medical Insurance Bureau and four other departments have issued a notice on carrying out the 2024 medical security fund flight inspection work. The number of cities sampled per province has increased from 1 in the past to 2 per year, with mandatory inspections for provincial capitals. Key inspections will be conducted on the use and management of medical insurance funds, as well as the construction and implementation of relevant internal control systems, from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023.
5. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment recently released the "2021 Electricity Carbon Dioxide Emission Factors". The carbon dioxide emission factors for electricity released this time can be used as a reference for different entities to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions of electricity consumption. In addition, research on electricity carbon footprint factors is being organized and will be released when mature.
6. China Academy of Information and Communications Technology released the first domestic automotive large model standard on April 28th. The standard mainly covers three ability domains, among which the scenario richness focuses on evaluating the support of the automotive large model for sub scenarios such as intelligent cockpit and autonomous driving, and the capability support focuses on the performance of the automotive large model in artificial intelligence technology capabilities such as perception, understanding, reasoning, and generation.
7. China Mobile: officially released the world's largest single intelligent computing center, China Mobile Intelligent Computing Center (Hohhot), which has been put into operation. The intelligent computing center deploys approximately 20000 AI acceleration cards, with a localization rate of over 85% for AI chips and a scale of intelligent computing power of up to 6.7EFLOPS (67 billion floating-point operations per second).
8. State Administration for Market Regulation: In 2023, there were 17000 public institutions and enterprises above designated size engaged in advertising business nationwide, with advertising revenue of 1312.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the annual revenue from Internet advertising was 719.06 billion yuan, up 33.4% year on year, and its proportion in advertising business rose from 58.7% in 2019 to 82.4%.
9. Starting from November 2023, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) will organize inspections on the data security compliance of newly launched intelligent connected vehicles by automobile manufacturers from 2022 to 2023. Among them, 76 models from six companies, including BYD, Ideal, Lotus, Hezhong New Energy, Tesla, and NIO, meet the four compliance requirements for automotive data security.
10. China Writers Association: The user base of online literature in China has exceeded 500 million people, with a total of over 30 million works and an annual increase of about 2 million works. There are abundant achievements in themes such as reality, science fiction, and history, and the process of mainstream and high-quality works is accelerating.
11. Huawei predicts that in the next 10 years, the number of electric vehicles in China will increase tenfold, leading to a demand for eight times the amount of charging. Therefore, Huawei has recently been laying out high-quality supercharging networks, with the goal of completing the construction of at least 100000 supercharging piles nationwide this year.
12. Shanghai Securities Journal: On May 13th, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will hold the 2024 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit in Beijing. At present, nearly 150 foreign institutions from 33 countries and regions have registered to attend the conference. This year's summit will continue to release the Beijing Initiative for the 2024 Global Trade and Investment Promotion Summit, advocating for the global business community to work together and seek development, and maintain stable and smooth industrial and supply chains.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.2463, up 0.0110% and down 0.0856% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1056, up 0.0028% and down 0.0141% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 858 million yuan, an increase of 17.17% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6175.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota listing agreement was 1.2515 million tons, with a total transaction amount of 126.4937 million yuan and a closing price of 102.49 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8.58%.
4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.40% to 38239.66 points, up 0.67% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 1.02% to 5099.96 points, up 2.67% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 2.03% to 15927.90 points, up 4.23% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 1.36% to 18161.01 points, up 2.39% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 0.89% to 8088.24 points, up 0.82% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.75% to close at 8139.83 points, up 3.09% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX gold futures rose 0.3% to $2349.60 per ounce, down 2.66% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures for June rose 0.34% to $83.85 per barrel, up 2% for the week; Brent crude oil futures rose 0.55% to $89.50 per barrel in June, up 2.53% for the week.
Huachuang Securities: Recently, seven departments including the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Implementation Rules for Subsidies for Automobile Trade ins", clarifying the subsidy policy for automobile trade ins. The subsidy covers the period from the date of issuance of the "Detailed Rules" to December 31, 2024. Individual consumers who scrap fuel passenger cars with National III and below emission standards or new energy passenger cars registered before April 30, 2018, and purchase new passenger cars that meet energy-saving requirements, can enjoy a one-time fixed subsidy. For scrapping the two types of old passenger cars mentioned above and purchasing qualified new energy passenger cars, a subsidy of 10000 yuan will be provided. A subsidy of 7000 yuan will be provided for scrapping fuel powered passenger cars with National III and below emission standards and purchasing fuel powered passenger cars with a displacement of 2.0 liters and below. This marks the official implementation of the car trade in policy in 2024. Referring to previous large-scale car consumption stimulus policies, the policy implementation is expected to bring significant growth to industry demand and promote the release of potential wait-and-see demand.
Debon Securities: This round of scrapping and replacement is expected to bring an increase of about 1-2 million units to the domestic passenger car market. According to data from motor vehicle insurance, as of the end of 2023, the number of fuel powered passenger cars with emission standards of Class III and below is about 13.78 million, the number of new energy passenger cars with a vehicle age of over 6 years is about 837000, and the number of eligible old cars is about 14.545 million. According to the chief expert of China Automotive Center, this round of scrapping and replacement is expected to bring an incremental scale of about 1-2 million vehicles to the domestic passenger car market, accounting for about 4.5% -9.1% of the domestic passenger car market share. Among them, 400000-800000 new energy passenger cars and 600000-120000 fuel passenger cars are expected to be replaced. According to the average selling price of new cars of 170000 yuan, the scrapping and renewal of these old vehicles is expected to bring about an increase in consumption scale of about 170-340 billion yuan.
Everbright Securities: Based on the current structure of the automotive market, in 2023, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in first tier cities decreased by 2.6 pcts year-on-year to 14.1%, while the proportion of lower tier markets increased; 2) The increase in demand for replacement purchases has driven car consumption, with an increase in the proportion of sales of models priced above 150000 yuan from 2017 to 2023 (compared to a relatively stable proportion of models priced between 100000 and 150000 yuan, and a decrease in the proportion of models priced below 100000 yuan); 3) The layout level of traditional independent and joint venture brands in the exchange/mid to high end new energy vehicle market still needs to be improved. The fulfillment of replacement demand in new first tier, second/third tier cities may become the key to driving sales, and it is expected that car companies with product and brand power in segmented markets will fully benefit.
Ping An Securities: The detailed subsidy rules for scrapping updates have been introduced, and the actual policy effect depends on the willingness of car owners to scrap. The replacement subsidy policies introduced by some local governments may have more stimulating effects. Overall, the policy of exchanging old cars for new ones is beneficial for upgrading China's automobile consumption and rapidly increasing the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Since the beginning of 2024, benchmark new energy vehicle companies in various price bands have lowered their price systems. For example, BYD has promoted the "electricity is lower than oil" product strategy, while Tesla and Ideal Motors have lowered their official guide prices, making the relative advantages of electric vehicles in each price band more prominent compared to gasoline vehicles. From the supply side, China's independent new energy vehicle companies have also seized the release of this wave of automotive consumption upgrading and demand for additional purchases. Currently, the high-end new energy pattern is becoming clearer, and we are optimistic about the reshaping of the industry pattern by high-end new energy vehicles represented by Huawei's ecosystem, Ideal, and Xiaomi.