Financial attention
► Shanghai released: optimize and adjust relevant measures for epidemic prevention and control. From 0:00 on December 5, taking rail transit, ground bus, ferry and other urban public transport tools, as well as outdoor public places such as parks and scenic spots in the city will not check the negative nucleic acid test certificate. However, consumers who enter catering services (including bars), shopping centers (including department stores), supermarkets, vegetable markets, beauty salons, foot baths and other commercial places must have a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours.
► CSCI: Seen from the medium-term trend, the market is in a volatile recovery after the second bottoming in the year. In the near future, the three medium-term clues have generally continued to improve. Short term focus on the shock factors of the three clues, and the subsequent deduction path is still complex; The current easing is expected to meet the intensive verification period; It is difficult to further increase the real estate. Pay attention to the important meeting at the end of the year and look forward to the capital market and industrial policies. On the whole, December is still in the stage of mobile warfare. The layout direction comprehensively considers policy expectation, prosperity expectation and industry rotation.
Macroeconomy
1. CCTV News: Recently, affected by the strong cold air, Beijing has seen obvious cooling weather. In response to this cold wave, the power sector closely tracks the trend of weather and power load changes, monitors the operation status of the power grid in real time, and ensures the safe and stable operation of the power grid. At the same time, the department will also deploy large emergency equipment such as 3000 kilowatt medium voltage power generation vehicles to key areas according to the information of the accurate meteorological early warning and forecasting system, so as to be ready for emergency power generation at any time.
2. Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention: The free vaccination of influenza vaccine was extended to December 31, and the self funded vaccination continued as required to meet the vaccination needs of citizens.
3. CCTV News: The 'Inflation Reduction Act' issued by the United States has aroused a lot of criticism and doubts in Europe. The German Finance Minister said that the United States is implementing a highly protectionist economic policy. The German federal government must consider its own interests and clarify the negative impact of the US Subsidies Act.
Real estate developments
1. CCTV: At present, many measures have been taken to accelerate the construction of guaranteed rent housing. By the end of October, the country had started construction and raised about 3.3 million affordable rental housing units (rooms), with a total investment of 333.4 billion yuan, which could solve the housing difficulties of nearly 10 million young people and new citizens. Among them, 40 large and medium-sized cities with a net inflow of population have started construction and raised more than 2.7 million sets (rooms), completing 42% of the target tasks of the 'Fourteenth Five Year Plan'.
2. Economic Daily: In recent years, there are still some industrial chaos in the rental industry, such as breach of contract and rent increase, deduction of deposit, 'partition house' and 'formaldehyde house'. Since this year, policies and measures have been introduced in many parts of the country to regulate housing leasing, clarify industry norms, and strengthen market supervision. Guangzhou, Qingdao, Shijiazhuang, Foshan, Shenzhen, Changzhou and other places have also issued relevant rules to put forward clear requirements for safeguarding the rights and interests of the lessee.
3. Zunyi City, Guizhou Province: two state-owned construction land use rights were transferred from November 5 to December 1, and the winner was Zunyi Wenkang Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., with a total cost of 1.054 billion yuan. Zunyi Wenkang Real Estate is 100% owned by Kweichow Moutai Real Estate and 100% controlled by Kweichow Moutai Group after penetration.
Stock market inventory
1. CICC: Since November, the market has rebounded under the influence of factors such as the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the continuous development of real estate policies from the supply side. The market style and industry performance also basically follow the deductive path of policies. The subsequent trend of A-share may still be affected by several aspects: 1) the impact of marginal optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies on economic fundamentals. 2) The real estate policy continued to increase from both the supply and demand sides to help the industry fundamentals stabilize and repair. 3) Towards the end of the year, the market's expectation of policies is gradually heating up. In terms of rhythm, we should pay attention to the periodic opportunities that the index may usher in from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year.
2. Securities Times: From November 27 to December 3, the institution investigated 291 listed companies in total. Most of the respondents belong to the electronics, mechanical equipment, medicine and biology, electric power equipment, computers, national defense and military industries and other sectors, with more than 20 companies in each sector, accounting for nearly 60% in total.
3. Longji Lvneng: signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Wanhua Chemical. Guided by the national goal of 'reaching the peak of carbon by 2030 and neutralizing carbon by 2060', the two sides will give full play to their respective advantages and form in-depth cooperation in photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, building photovoltaic integration, new materials and other fields through all-round coordination to jointly explore the clean energy application market.
4. Wen's shares: It is proposed to buy back the company's A shares through centralized bidding transaction with its own funds of no more than 1.8 billion yuan and no less than 900 million yuan for the implementation of equity incentive or employee stock ownership plan. The buyback price shall not exceed 27.32 yuan/share.
5. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 86 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 1.948 billion shares and a market value of 56.208 billion yuan. Among them, Bairen Medical ranked the first in the list of lifting the ban with 14.05 billion yuan, while North Huachuang and the investment surplus ranked the second and third with 7.408 billion yuan and 6.16 billion yuan respectively.
6. Subscription of new shares: This week, 8 new shares were issued, including Air China Ocean (BEX), Fengli Intelligent (GEM), Feng'an Shares (BEX), CommScope Chemical (BEX), Xingyuan Zhuomai (GEM), Huaxin Environmental Protection (GEM), Chunguang Pharmaceutical (BEX) and Yandong Microenterprise (Science and Technology Innovation Board).
Wealth Focus
1. Securities Times: Up to now, more than ten new films have been scheduled for release in December, and the box office of the New Year film has exceeded 120 million. Among them, the domestic films 'Keep You Safe' and 'Kidnapping Game' have attracted much attention due to their themes and lineups, and are regarded as box office dark horse seed players.
2. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. Near the end of the year, many Baijiu enterprises reported good results, while dealers were trapped in 'inventory difficulties'. How about the differentiation? The gap between supply and demand is still widening. How about the layout of Baijiu? What is the performance of the valuation when the current expectations fall back sufficiently? In the medium and long term, what is the trend of Baijiu? Financial friends, please quickly check today's financial secret tracking at the end of the article # The liquor company welcomes the success of the closing ceremony
Industry observation
1. China Securities News: At present, the comprehensive winter storage of steel has not started. With the continuous release of favorable downstream real estate policies, the price of superimposed steel has dropped by about 20% compared with the same period last year. Some steel traders have changed their negative attitude towards winter storage. However, due to the 'continuous falling' of steel prices this year, the annual profits of steel traders are not good, and many steel traders may be limited by funds in winter. The actual winter storage situation still depends on the steel price and the real estate recovery at the end of December.
2. Economic Observer: Power battery overcapacity alarm sounded. Industry institutions estimate that the power battery capacity required by China's new energy vehicle market will be about 1000 to 1200 GWh by 2025. However, at present, the capacity plan announced by battery plants, vehicle plants and other cross-border enterprises has reached 4800GWh, more than 4 times the expected capacity.
3. China Securities News: tight supply and strong demand have driven fluorite prices higher since September. The delivery price of fluorite 97 wet powder is 3100 yuan/ton - 3500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 550 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of September, reaching a new high this year. According to the industry, the demand for fluorite from new energy sources will reach 1.5 million to 2 million tons by 2025, and may exceed 5 million tons by 2030. At present, the global total annual output of fluorite is only seven or eight million tons, and new energy may replace the traditional demand for refrigerant and become the largest demand area for fluorite.
4. Shanghai Securities News: In recent years, as the domestic carnival has been expanded to the global scale, more and more overseas consumers have begun to buy Chinese made goods on the cross-border e-commerce platform. The number of overseas warehouses in China will exceed 1000 in 2019 and 2000 in 2021, with a total area of more than 16 million square meters. The business scope will reach the world, 90% of which will be distributed in North America, Europe and Asia. Experts believe that the 'reverse overseas shopping' phenomenon is, to some extent, an affirmation of China's manufacturing supply chain capacity.
5. EU: It is being decided whether to allow flights to provide 5G services for passengers in the air, including listening to music, watching videos, scanning various App and making calls using wireless data. If the bill is passed, it represents that the EU will require airlines to provide 5G connections for passengers, rather than requiring passengers to pay for Wi Fi. If it is agreed, EU member states need to prepare for such 5G networks before June 30, 2023.
6. Samsung Electronics: It is the first time to introduce the photoresist of Dongjinshi Meiken Semiconductor into its mass production line, which is the first attempt of local mass production of photoresist. However, the specific output is still unclear, and whether other types of photoresist will be introduced has not been responded.
important news
1. Ford: It is facing resistance from many state dealers to its electric vehicle sales plan. Previously, improving its electric vehicle sales model required dealers to certify and invest in infrastructure. However, many dealers now claim that Ford's regulations are inflexible and require high expenses in the early stage. Some dealers even plan to resort to law.
2. Amazon: It is planning to restart the advertising on Twitter at a price of about 100 million dollars a year. Musk said that Apple has 'completely restored' the advertising on Twitter.
Insight Economics
1. CCTV News: To ensure energy security, Switzerland may become the first country in the world to restrict the use of electric vehicles, and will ban the use of electric vehicles except for 'absolutely necessary trips'. Most of Switzerland's power supply comes from France and Germany, but this year's power supply is limited due to the impact of the energy crisis.
Financial data
1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar, up 0.5806% to 7.0380, and up 1.7245% weekly; The central parity rate of the RMB was 7.0542, up 0.9589% and 1.1172% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 9 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.258 billion, an increase of 20.43% month on month. Up to now, there are 6608 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 74013 million yuan.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total trading volume of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 1315972 tons, with a total turnover of 74229118.70 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 57.69 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from last Friday.
4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow fell 0.1% to 34429.88, up 0.24% for the week; The S&P 500 index fell 0.12% to 4071.70, up 1.13% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 11461.50, up 2.09% for the week.
5. Europe: On Friday, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.27% to 14529.39, down 0.08% for the week; France's CAC40 index fell 0.17% to 6742.25, up 0.44% for the week; The FTSE 100 index fell 0.03% to 7556.23, up 0.93% for the week.
6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX gold futures for February closed 0.3% lower at USD 1809.60/oz, up 2.30% for the week.
7. Crude oil: last Friday, WTI January crude oil futures fell 1.52% to 79.98 dollars/barrel, up 4.85% weekly; Brent crude oil futures for February fell 1.51% to 85.57 dollars/barrel, up 2.32% for the week.
► China.com: Near the end of the year, a number of Baijiu enterprises reported good news, and the annual goal is in sight. However, in the dealer sector, the problem of inventory is still to be solved. As the new year draws near, dealers will add cash flow pressure. The liquor enterprises and dealers are not connected in sorrow and happiness. According to the industry, restricted by the reduction of social mobility, some liquor consumption scenarios disappear, and the overall market demand is significantly reduced, but at the same time, business networking, visiting relatives and friends and other just in need consumption continue, and famous wines with brands, cultures and values become direct beneficiaries. The liquor enterprises reported good news frequently, but the dealers were still full of pressure after experiencing the 'cold season' of the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day. This move is mainly about cash flow. The cash pressure will increase as the payment is approaching. The wine dealer will ship at a low price in order to recover the funds as soon as possible.
► Ping An Securities: The gap between supply and demand may still widen. The supply side is still growing, the current channel inventory is relatively high, and there may be selling behavior under the pressure of channel and terminal payment collection during the Spring Festival. Henan Bairong also has a lot of inventory to digest. The supply side stock may further increase after the payment and goods preparation in December. The uncertainty on the demand side is still strong, the recent epidemic situation has further spread, the confidence of terminal consumption and channel stock has been frustrated, and the terminal demand continues to be weak. It is expected that the consumption scenarios such as Spring Festival business and banquets will still be greatly affected, and the demand for gifts will be relatively stable. Near the end of the year, it is suggested to pay attention to the business planning of each liquor company for the coming year and the plan for a good start to the Spring Festival. Baijiu has the ability to go through the cycle. It is suggested to base on the long-term strategic layout. First, high-end and secondary high-end liquor companies with strong demand; Second, the leading liquor enterprises in Jiangsu and Anhui that are less affected by the epidemic; Third, Baijiu enterprises that benefit from mass consumption and expansion of bottled liquor.
► Huachuang Securities: Since late November, liquor enterprises and channels have communicated with each other to formulate goals for the coming year. In December, channels have started to complete the Spring Festival payment collection in batches. This year, affected by the spread of the epidemic and the frustration of channel confidence, the rhythm of payment collection and delivery was delayed compared with previous years, and the payment collection during the Spring Festival was delayed. Focus on three positive signs. First, famous liquor enterprises still have the ability to pass through the cycle smoothly. At present, the management of liquor enterprises have higher requirements and standards, a stronger sense of bottom line, focus on price stability, stronger channel control, strong natural turnover ability and good inventory control under the support of strong brands such as Maotai and Fenjiu. Second, some brands actively released quantity control signals. Third, the current expectation has fully fallen, and the valuation has also been digested accordingly. With the re spread of the recent epidemic, the previous recovery expectation has weakened again, the channel and market expectations for the Spring Festival and the coming year have fallen again, and the valuation has also been digested accordingly.
► CICC: At the end of November, the epidemic situation was repeated in many places, and the dynamic sales of Baijiu was still under pressure in the short term. Liquor enterprises successively carried out market activities related to a good start, and promoted the development of payment targets and the decentralization of payment collection policies. Many Baijiu companies weakened the assessment of the good start sales in 2023, increased flexible indicators such as price and channel inventory, and paid attention to the growth of quality and the interests of dealers. It is recommended to select the core target with solid current fundamentals and clear EPS growth trend next year. Watch the value at the bottom and grasp the core target. In the long run, with the rise of the middle class, Baijiu will continue to benefit from consumption upgrading and continue the trend of concentration and differentiation. In the short term, the recovery of catering and regional price hikes in the off-season of some leading enterprises are expected to drive the volume and price of current drinking channels to rise at the same time. By benchmarking the more mature and open international beer market, as the impact of the epidemic situation is gradually controllable, the volume and price of the current drinking channel will rise at the same time or become the largest source of fundamental flexibility.