Financial attention
► Health Commission: According to the classification of clinical cases of Omikjon in our country in 2022, the incidence of pneumonia, that is to say, the proportion of ordinary type is still quite low, about 8%. Now because of the large base of infection, the absolute number of pneumonia must be large, because the population base of our country is large, so if it becomes absolute, it is not a small number.
► President of China Tourism Research Institute: It is estimated that the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue in 2023 will recover to 70% to 75% of that before the epidemic, and the number of inbound and outbound tourists is expected to recover to 30% to 40% of that before the epidemic. Among them, the upcoming Spring Festival holiday will become the most anticipated holiday tourism market in the past three years, driven by the growth of demand for family visits, folk leisure, parent-child research, ice and snow, and cold shelter, while the summer holiday is expected to usher in a comprehensive recovery.
► Kerry: In December 2022, the total financing amount of 100 typical real estate enterprises will be 101.8 billion yuan, an increase of 84.7% month on month and 33.4% year on year. For the first time in the year, the single month financing scale will exceed 100 billion yuan. However, according to the annual data in 2022, the total financing amount of real estate enterprises in the year was 824 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38%, and it was less than 1 trillion yuan for the first time since 2016.
Macroeconomy
1. Wu Zunyou: Responding to the question, 'Will the opening of the country lead to a second round of infection?' Whether it will cause a new round of epidemic depends on how similar in structure, or how different in variation, the mutated strains and the strains that have just become popular. From the current point of view, because its variation is also the variation of branches in the Omicron subtype, it should not be too likely to cause a new round of transmission risk immediately.
2. Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: In recent years, we have continued to strengthen the disposal of non-performing assets, which has exceeded 3 trillion yuan for several consecutive years. In the next step, we should still strictly control the addition of non-performing products, make full provision and strengthen the handling. Actively cooperate to resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments. We will orderly replace local government debt, promote the optimization of the debt maturity structure, and reduce the interest rate burden. All kinds of financial activities shall be brought under supervision according to law. We should be in charge of both 'illegal driving with license' and 'driving without license'. It is strictly forbidden to promise fixed return or expected rate of return for asset management products. Strictly regulate the cross regional deposit and loan business of local financial institutions.
3. Health Insurance Bureau: This year, a total of three COVID-19 therapeutic drugs, Azovudine Tablets, Nematovir Tablets/Litonavir Tablets Combination Packaging (Paxlovid for short) and Qingfei Paidu Granules, participated in the negotiation through the procedures of independent declaration, form review, expert review, etc. Among them, negotiations on Azovudine tablets and Qingfei Paidu granules were successful, while Paxlovid failed due to the high quotation of the manufacturer Pfizer Investment Co., Ltd.
4. Medium disease control: If it is confirmed by nucleic acid test or antigen test that COVID-19 has been infected recently, it is not recommended to vaccinate these infected people with COVID-19 vaccine in the near future. If it is necessary to vaccinate against COVID-19 in the later period, according to the current regulations, the infection time and vaccination time should be more than six months apart.
5. Sanya City, Hainan Province: Since January 8, 2023, the free nucleic acid testing policy will no longer be continued. Citizens who need nucleic acid testing can go to the nucleic acid sampling point for testing at their own expense, and the testing fee shall be subject to the relevant regulations of Sanya City on the nucleic acid testing fee of COVID-19.
6. CCTV News: Since January 8, the Hong Kong port has orderly resumed normal exchanges between mainland and Hong Kong personnel in stages. According to preliminary figures from the Immigration Department of the Hong Kong SAR Government, as of 4:00 p.m. on January 8, more than 36000 people had entered and exited Hong Kong through land ports, including Lok Ma Chau Branch, Hong Kong Zhuhai Macao Bridge, Wenjindu and Shenzhen Bay Port. In addition, the number of inbound and outbound passengers from Hong Kong Airport is about 32000, and the number of inbound and outbound passengers via waterway exceeds 2100.
7. CCTV: On January 7 (the first day of the Spring Festival transportation), 34736000 passengers were sent by railways, highways, waterways and civil aviation across the country, up 11.1% month on month, down 48.6% from the same period in 2019 and up 38.9% from the same period in 2022. On January 8, the national railway is expected to send 6.1 million passengers and 8449 passenger trains.
8. Deputy Prime Minister of Russia: Despite the difficulties brought about by the western countries' sanctions, Russia's food exports to friendly countries in 2022 still increased by 25% year on year, and exported food to 150 countries. Russia has never politicized the issue of food export, and expects to further increase the scale of food export in 2023.
9. Korea Development and Research Institute: The export of semiconductor and other major items continued to be weak, which led to the continued downturn of the manufacturing industry. With the slowing growth of the service industry, the overall economic growth of South Korea stalled. The impact of higher interest rates at home and abroad in South Korea is gradually emerging in the real economy, and downward pressure on the economy may further increase in the future.
Real estate developments
1. Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, made great efforts to promote the normal circulation of real estate and finance. We will implement the 'Sixteen Financial Measures' to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry, and gradually promote the transition of the real estate industry to a new development model, with the focus on improving the balance sheet of high-quality leading real estate enterprises.
2. Middle finger research institute: In 2023, the property market may gradually enter the stage of stabilization and recovery at the bottom, but the operation differentiation of inter city market may intensify. The core first tier and second tier city markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chengdu may be repaired at a low level. The pace of promotion can be adjusted flexibly according to the policy window period and market heat. Weak second tier cities such as Guiyang, Nanning, Kunming, Ningxia and others will still have adjustment pressure in 2023. Zhuzhou, Yueyang, Yantai, Tangshan Baoding and other third and fourth tier cities still have weak market support, and the performance of the property market may still be low. It is recommended to mainly de inventory, follow the market and increase price reduction promotion.
3. Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development: In 2022, the country plans to start rebuilding 51000 old urban communities. From January to November 2022, 52500 old urban communities will be renovated nationwide, and the annual commencement task has been completed. Among them, 29 provinces including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Guangxi, Shanxi and Hubei exceeded or reached the planned tasks.
Stock market inventory
1. CICC: Considering that after the rebound, the overall valuation of A-shares is still not high, which is still at a historical low. At present, A-shares are still in a good layout period. As the impact of the epidemic fades and China's growth moves towards a substantial recovery, the market is expected to welcome trendy investment opportunities this year. In terms of allocation, it is recommended to follow the marginal change rhythm of policies in the short term, such as the real estate chain and the consumption sector affected by the epidemic. In the medium term, grasp the main line of industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading according to the degree of prosperity and the direction of industrial policy support.
2. CITIC Securities: After New Year's Day, the epidemic situation across the country quickly 'peaked', and the frequent stimulus policies promoted the accelerated repair of the economy. The key long window of the year has been opened. Incremental funds have 'rushed' into the market, market liquidity has improved rapidly, risk appetite has gradually warmed, and funds have been actively looking for 'depressions' to promote the spread of market rotation. The first stage driven by policy games is shifting to the second stage driven by performance, The allocation has gradually shifted from equilibrium to performance flexibility.
3. Sovereign Wealth Fund Research Institute: By the end of 2022, the total assets of the world's sovereign wealth funds will reach US $10.30 trillion, up from US $10.12 trillion in September 2022. Saudi Arabia's public investment fund, with assets of US $607.42 billion, ranks sixth among the world's top sovereign wealth funds. China Investment Co., Ltd. ranked first with assets of US $1.350 trillion, followed by the Norwegian Government Global Pension Fund and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, with asset values of US $1.13 trillion and US $790 billion respectively.
4. Meihua Biology: It is estimated that the net profit in 2022 will be 4 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 91%. During the reporting period, the prices of the main products MSG, lysine, xanthan gum and other feed amino acid products increased, and the overall profitability of the main products further improved, which led to profit growth.
5. Jianfa Shares: It is planning to acquire no more than 30% of the shares of Red Star Macalline Home Furnishing Group Co., Ltd. through cash agreement. After the completion of this transaction, it may become the controlling shareholder of Macalline.
6. Hang Seng Electronics: Changes in the upper equity structure of Hangzhou Hang Seng Electronics Group Co., Ltd., the controlling shareholder, have led to changes in the actual controller's equity. This equity change does not involve changes in the number of shares and shareholding ratio of Hang Seng Electronics held by Hang Seng Group. After this equity change, the controlling shareholder is still Hang Seng Group, and the actual controller will be changed from Ma Yun to no actual controller.
7. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 6 new shares were issued, including 2 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board, 1 on the Growth Enterprise Market, 2 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. They are respectively Jiuzhou Yigui, British Software, Foster, Xinlei, Tianye and Jianghan Xincai.
8. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 74 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 10.955 billion shares and a market value of 113.52 billion yuan. Among them, Baofeng Energy ranked No. 1 in the lifting list with 64.145 billion yuan, and Power Production and Financing and Tianyue Advanced ranked No. 2 and No. 3 respectively with 18.409 billion yuan and 8.224 billion yuan.
Wealth Focus
1. Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: promote the healthy development of Internet platform enterprises. The special rectification of the financial business of 14 platform enterprises has been basically completed, and a few remaining problems are also being solved. In the future, we will implement regular supervision, encourage platform enterprises to operate in compliance, and play a major role in leading development, creating jobs, and international competition.
2. Where to go: From December 27, 2022 to January 7, 2023, the number of air tickets booked to Hong Kong has increased 3.8 times month on month. The popular destinations are Chengdu, Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Xiamen; Bookings from other countries and regions to Hong Kong also increased by 3.2 times month on month. The number of hotel nights booked in Macao in December 2022 has exceeded the same period in 2019.
3. The financial headline App: Huaxia Fund's announcement shows that the Chongchang ETF (159967) will be renamed as the Growth ETF of the GEM (159967 with the same code) today, helping investors grasp new opportunities for investment in high-tech industries with the 'three innovations and four innovations' standard in the GEM. As of December 31, 2022, the growth ETF's net value growth rate in the last three years has reached 70%, ranking first among all broad-based index funds. Since its establishment in June 2019, the cumulative income has doubled.
Industry observation
1. Beijing Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau: special guarantee will be provided for outpatient and emergency expenses related to novel coronavirus infection and 11 types of suspected symptoms (fever, dry cough, fatigue, sore throat, smell/taste loss, nasal congestion, runny nose, conjunctivitis, myalgia, and diarrhea) of insured patients in designated medical institutions at or below the second level in Beijing. No minimum payment line and ceiling line will be set, and the reimbursement ratio will be 90%, which will be implemented first until March 31, 2023.
2. CCTV Finance and Economics: As the Spring Festival is approaching, the trading volume of Fuzhou Strait Aquatic Products Trading Center's fresh ice zone has risen from 100 tons per day to 300 tons per day. The sales of Dongxingban and Shiban were two or three times higher than usual. Merchants said that the price of high-end seafood this year was 30% to 40% lower than last year. The annual trading volume of the Taiwan Strait Aquatic Products Trading Center is close to one million tons, with an annual trading volume of more than 10 billion yuan.
3. Surging news: At the centralized signing ceremony of SASAC's new energy intelligent operation and maintenance service cooperation with central enterprises, 13 central enterprises completed 22 project contracts, involving photovoltaic power generation and wind power, with a total capacity of 288 megawatts, which is a professional integration of central enterprises in the new energy field involving a wide range of projects in recent years. According to the industry, this cooperation marks the transformation of new energy integration of central enterprises from single coordination to overall promotion, the transformation of new energy management from decentralized to lean, the transformation of new energy operation from single breakthrough to win-win cooperation, and the transformation of new energy development from scale expansion to specialization and intensification.
4. Hangzhou Daily: On January 8, the first privately held high-speed railway in China - Hangzhou Taiwan high-speed railway ushered in the first anniversary of its opening and operation, as well as the second spring festival after its opening. Hangzhou Taizhou high-speed railway is 266.9km long, with a design speed of 350km/h. Since its opening on January 8, 2022, Hangzhou Taizhou High speed Railway has operated nearly 5500 pairs (11000 trips) of high-speed train sets in the past year, safely transporting more than 5 million passengers.
5. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Transport Federation: The recent price reduction of Tesla in China is a normal trend expected, and used car dealers should have expected it. The second-hand car market is the place to eat. The change of inventory is an extremely sensitive signal, and the change of market promotion is also a sensitive signal that must be grasped. Used car dealers should pay close attention to changes in the new car market. New energy vehicles are still more expensive than fuel vehicles. The return of new energy vehicle prices is a long-term trend. The withdrawal of new energy subsidies is conducive to the return of lithium carbonate prices to the low middle level.
6. TrendForce: Since most suppliers have started to reduce production, the quarterly price decline of NAND Flash will converge to 10% - 15% in the first quarter of 2023. The price cutting competition will also be controlled after the original factory starts to reduce production. Among them, as NAND Flash Wafer is close to the cash cost, the decline will be the first product to be controlled; As an important market for original factories to consume inventory, Enterprise SSD has a large profit margin and is the product with the deepest decline.
7. CCTV News: On January 7, Russia's Vigon Consulting Company said that the EU used LNG as a key tool to replace Russia's pipeline natural gas supply. In 2022, the import of LNG from European countries will increase by more than 60%, reaching 125 million tons. Among them, the United States became the largest supplier of liquefied natural gas, and its export volume to Europe was nearly 2.5 times that of the original, increasing from 21.4 million tons to more than 53 million tons.
8. Xinhua News Agency: On January 7, a cargo ship from Santos Port, Brazil docked at Machong Port, Guangdong Province. After inspection and quarantine of 68000 tons of Brazilian corn imported by COFCO Group, the ship will be quickly delivered to domestic feed enterprises. COFCO said that this was the first time that China imported Brazilian corn in bulk, marking the opening of the Brazilian corn export corridor.
9. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. Why does Tesla frequently wave the 'price cutting knife' when it cuts prices four times in three months? How will this round of price reduction affect the new energy vehicle industry? What is the key to 'chasing the deer' in 2023 when the war of new domestic car making forces ends? Financial friends, please check today's financial secret tracking at the end of the article # Tesla will be the 'price butcher' again
important news
1. Twitter: The global content review team, which has been greatly reduced, and departments related to hate speech and harassment have carried out more in-depth layoffs. On January 6, at least a dozen people were laid off. Employees in Dublin and Singapore were affected. It is true that those positions that do not have enough proof of continued support have been eliminated, but Twitter has increased the staffing of the appeal department, and will continue to establish the income policy director and the Asia Pacific trust and security director of the platform.
2. Mercedes Benz: Although it is worried that the weak rupee may lead to price increase, it is expected that the sales in India will achieve double-digit growth this year. Last year, the sales volume in India increased by 41% to 15822, the highest in India, and there was a backlog of about 6000 vehicles.
Insight Economics
1. CCTV News: Affected by the rising energy prices and inflation, many industries in the UK have held strikes in succession. On January 7 local time, tens of thousands of railway workers continued to strike. As a result of the continuous strike, only about one fifth of British railway transportation can still operate normally, about half of the railway service network is interrupted, and most of the rural areas in Wales, Scotland and England are out of service all day.
2. Chinanews. com: US President Biden is reported to be preparing for the launch of the re-election campaign. It is reported that Biden plans to open his campaign plan in the coming weeks, possibly around the State of the Union address in February.
3. China Youth Daily: California is suffering from winter storms, and some areas are at risk of flash floods, mud rock flows, rock landslides and avalanches. The storm damaged local infrastructure, causing tens of thousands of households and enterprises to lose power. As of the afternoon of January 7, more than 34000 households and enterprises still had power cuts, mainly in northern California. The National Weather Service said the storm would last until mid January.
Financial data
1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.2081% to 6.8588, and up 1.3321% weekly; The central parity rate was 6.8912, up 0.0203% and 1.0539% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 6 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 838 million, a month on month decrease of 43.35%. Up to now, there are 6580 companies listed on the NEEQ.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total trading volume of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 5491 tons, with a total turnover of 303005 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 56.00 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from last Friday.
4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow closed 2.13% higher at 33630.61, up 1.46% for the week; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.56% to 10569.29, up 0.98% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 2.28% higher at 3895.08, up 1.45% for the week.
5. Europe: On Friday, FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.87% higher at 7699.49, up 3.32% for the week; Germany DAX30 closed 1.2% higher at 14610.02, up 4.93% for the week; France CAC40 closed 1.47% higher at 6860.95, up 5.98% for the week.
6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX gold futures settlement price for February closed 1.6% higher at US $1869.7/ounce, up 2.4% weekly.
7. Crude oil: On Friday, WTI crude oil futures for February rose 0.13% to $73.77/barrel, down 8.08% weekly. Brent crude oil futures for March fell 0.15% to US $78.57/barrel, down 8.54% weekly.
·Tesla becomes the 'price butcher' again·
► Securities Times: On January 6, 2023, the prices of domestic Tesla will be reduced by a maximum of 48000 yuan, including 229900 yuan for Model 3 and 259900 yuan for Model Y. The prices of both models will hit new lows in history. On October 24, November 8 and December 7 last year, Tesla launched three promotional activities. This time, it has been four price reductions in three months. At the same time, in the past 2022, Tesla delivered 1.31 million vehicles worldwide, which did not meet the expectation of 1.5 million vehicles. Under the pressure of sales growth, Tesla's capacity growth has maintained a high speed. Industry insiders believe that Tesla is facing huge market competition pressure, and the rise of domestic brands has divided the cake, so it is necessary to fight a 'price war'.
► Industrial Securities: Tesla's new product research and development strategy in 2022 has big problems. It incorrectly assigned internal project priorities, invested scarce R&D resources in robot projects that are difficult to mass produce in the short term, and did not focus on the main business of car manufacturing, resulting in inferior product strength of models to competitors. The aging of products leads to zero orders in the United States and China. In the fourth quarter of 2022, price reduction measures have been taken to maintain the delivery volume. Even so, the annual delivery is 1.3139 million vehicles, with an annual growth rate of 40%. However, it is not as fast as the guidance given at the third quarter performance meeting that the annual growth rate is slightly lower than 50%, and it is also lower than the 1.8635 million vehicles delivered by BYD throughout the year. In 2023, the company will still focus on the sales of the four S3XY models, but the change will not change the fact that the competitiveness will decline.
► Soochow Securities: From the perspective of the impact of Tesla's current round of price reduction, from top to bottom, it will bring about a passive change in the pricing strategy of each car enterprise, and the thickness of orders in hand will directly affect the time point of the change in the pricing strategy of car enterprises. The order of influence degree of each market segment is: RMB 20000-300000>RMB 100000-200000>RMB 300000>RMB 100000>RMB 100000. All auto companies passively adopt market based pricing strategies. It is expected that the new energy brand will have a more direct impact on the same price band segment, but ultimately, the pressure on the oil vehicle brand will be greater. With Tesla as the leader, several mainstream new energy vehicle enterprises may follow up the price reduction strategy. The margin of new energy vehicle performance price ratio will be further optimized. The supply side reform will further promote the acceptance of the new energy vehicle terminal market, and the domestic penetration rate will accelerate from 30% to 50%.
► Shengang Securities: Against the background of repeated epidemic and tight supply chain, new domestic car making forces have achieved self breakthroughs, and GAC E'an has delivered more than 200000 vehicles annually, taking the lead; Nezha, Ideals, Weilai, Xiaopeng and Zero Run have all delivered more than 100000 vehicles annually. Looking forward to 2023, in the context of the withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, Tesla will take the lead in fighting the price war, and the market competition will be more intense. It is estimated that the sales volume of the new car making forces is expected to exceed 200000 vehicles in 2023. Under the scale effect, how to make profits will be a real problem for all car enterprises. At present, it is still very difficult for the new forces to make profits. Capacity expansion, R&D investment, channel construction, etc. will erode the company's profit space. The car enterprises that take the lead in making profits will stand out in the end of the competition.