Financial attention
► Haitong Securities: referring to the capital rhythm of January 2019, the starting point of the previous bull market, foreign capital will enter the market in November 2018, while domestic capital will take the lead in the follow-up, and public offering and leveraged funds will accelerate the entry into the market from February to March 2019. Since October 2022, it has been the beginning of a new bull market. Similar to 2019, foreign investment has been launched in the near future. It is estimated that the net inflow will be more than 300 billion yuan in 2023, and the subsequent domestic capital will keep up. Public offering may become an important increment. Compared with history, the first wave of the bull market has not finished. The second half of the market attaches importance to growth, such as the digital economy, securities companies, and new energy. The whole year focuses on consumption.
► Shanghai Securities News: All versions of the iPhone 14 Pro series will receive a discount of 700 yuan from February 5, covering almost all authorized stores. The iPhone 14 Pro series has shown a price reduction of 700 yuan in the authorized store of Apple's WeChat applet. At the same time, the coupon of the iPhone 14 Pro series on individual e-commerce platforms was reduced by 800 yuan, with a larger price reduction.
► Financial breakfast: hot spots keep coming out, track what you want to hear. Since the Spring Festival, the price of silicon materials has soared. What are the reasons? Will silicon still become the focus of contradictions in the photovoltaic industry chain? What investment opportunities are there in the industrial chain? Financial friends quickly move to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # The silicon industry is eager for demand recovery
Macroeconomics
1. Changjiang Securities: With the overseas economic recession in 2023, the US debt is at a historical high, and the trend of gold is noteworthy; In the process of repairing the domestic demand, the copper, aluminum and steel among the large metal varieties are optimistic. In addition, it is suggested to focus on two main lines in the sub-categories, one is new energy, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth, and the other is specialized and special.
2. The surging news: After three years of suspension, the pilot of outbound travel business of travel agencies has resumed. On February 5, several outbound tourist groups scrambled for the 'first group'. After the resumption of outbound tour groups, the development of tourism products is subject to the openness of air routes and ticket prices of various countries. For some countries that travel for a long time, there may be only one flight a week. Whether the trip will be completed or not shall be subject to the notice of the travel agency.
3. SIA: Global chip sales in 2022 increased by 3.2% from US $555.9 billion in 2021 to a record US $573.5 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2022, chip sales fell 14.7% year-on-year to US $130.2 billion, 7.7% lower than the sales in the third quarter of 2022.
4. Ukraine: In January, the export of agricultural products decreased by 25% compared with December. 77 ships exported 3 million tons of agricultural products from the ports in Odessa to African, Asian and European countries, a decrease of 25% compared with December last year. The only obstacle for Ukrainian agricultural products to enter the world market is the action taken by the Russian side at the Joint Coordination Center, which prevents ships from carrying out inspections in the Bosporus Strait.
5. Director of the International Energy Agency: The ceiling on oil prices in Russia has not only achieved the goal of stabilizing the oil market, but also reduced Russia's oil revenue; During the period from January 2022 to January 2023, Russia's oil and gas export revenue decreased by nearly 30%; In January of this year, Russia's oil and gas revenue decreased by about US $8 billion compared with the same period last year.
Real estate developments
1. Beijing Daily: The Hebei Xiong'an New Area Management Committee has issued a series of housing related policy documents, and established a housing system of 'multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent and purchase', marking the basic formation of a housing security system with the characteristics of Xiong'an New Area. Xiong'an New Area has vigorously cultivated and developed the housing rental market, and allocated no less than 30% of 'rent only but not for sale' housing.
2. Shandong Province: All cities are supported to promote housing consumption by issuing housing purchase coupons and other forms. For the newly purchased family's only housing or the second improved housing, it can be supported by appropriate means. We will fully implement the registration mode of 'transfer with pledge' for second-hand housing transactions, and optimize the transaction process of second-hand housing. For families with multiple children who purchase the first self-housing, cities are allowed to appropriately increase the loanable amount of provident fund.
3. Securities Times: In January 2023, despite the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, all localities continued to implement 'policies based on the city', and policies and measures to stabilize the property market were intensively introduced. The industry said that the optimization of credit policy this year is expected to be the starting point of local support for just needs and improvement of demand, and the strength of mortgage loan policy is expected to continue to increase in the future.
Stock market inventory
1. Securities Times: Beishang capital has been net inflow into A shares for 12 consecutive weeks. With regard to the future trend of capital in the north, the industry said that after the Spring Festival, the leading force of foreign capital has gradually shifted from trading to allocation, and there is still greater space and power to increase the position of A-shares in the future allocation. Industry insiders predict that the net inflow of mainland shares into A-shares is expected to reach more than 300 billion yuan in 2023.
2. CSCI: The market in spring is still sustainable, and the willingness of domestic investors to make long is gradually increasing, which also indicates that the follow-up market will be funded by sufficient incremental funds. Keep the direction of 'exceeding expectations+strong expectations', grasp the 'technology+theme' and pay attention to potential risks. The industry focuses on innovation, chip design/MLCC, games, gold, new energy vehicles, green electricity, etc.
3. China Fund News: The interest of public fund managers in Hong Kong shares has increased significantly. In the fourth quarter of last year, the number of mainland public funds available for investment in Hong Kong shares increased to 2786, with a total market value of 406 billion Hong Kong shares, an increase of more than 100 billion over the third quarter; Many active equity funds have actively increased the proportion of Hong Kong stock holdings in the fourth quarter, and the proportion of Hong Kong stock holdings has again attracted attention. It has become the winner and loser of the rebound in the net value of funds since the end of last year.
4. Luchang Technology: It is proposed to issue shares to 29 counterparties such as Zoomlion Heavy Industries to purchase 100% of the equity of Zoomlion High Machinery held by them and raise matching funds. The target company is mainly engaged in the R&D, production, sales and service of aerial work platforms. After the completion of the transaction, the main business of the listed company is expected to change to the high-altitude operation platform business, and the existing business operation and development plans of automobile electronics remain unchanged. The company's stock market will resume trading on February 6.
5. Huichuan Technology: It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.931 billion yuan - 4.645 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 10% - 30%. During the reporting period, the general automation business achieved rapid growth; The sales revenue of the new energy vehicle business has achieved rapid growth due to 'increased penetration, the company's fixed-point model expansion, guaranteed supply and guaranteed delivery' and other reasons; Industrial robot business has achieved rapid growth in sales revenue due to 'product series expansion, brand influence improvement' and other reasons.
6. Intelligent automatic control (5 boards): Director Chen Yan plans to reduce his shareholding by no more than 0.35% of the company's total share capital. It holds 4736080 shares, accounting for 1.42% of the company's total share capital.
7. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 8 new shares were issued, including 2 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board, 1 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Main Board, 1 on the Growth Enterprise Board, 2 on the Beijing Stock Exchange and 2 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. They are Yangzhou Jinquan, Yatong Seiko, Kuntai, Zhenlan Instrument, Lierda, Konjac, Zhongrun Optics and Longxun.
8. Unlimited sales: This week, a total of 71 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 1.864 billion shares lifted, and the market value of the lifted shares reached 160.493 billion yuan. Among them, Bull Group ranked first in the list of lifting the ban with 79.584 billion yuan, while Star Semi Guide and Ruixin Micro Advanced ranked second and third with 26.709 billion yuan and 18.351 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region: This year, the government plans to invest more than 50 million yuan, with a total investment of 3.2 trillion yuan, and the annual plan to complete investment of 773.9 billion yuan, an increase of 140.3 billion yuan over last year. Among them, there are 52 projects with a total investment of 10 billion yuan or more, an increase of 11 compared with last year.
2. South Korea Concession Office: The number of 'meta universe' related patents applied to the five intellectual property bureaus of South Korea, the United States, Japan, China and the European Union has increased by 16.1% annually in the past 10 years. From the perspective of nationality of applicants in the past 10 years, the United States is the largest, accounting for 35.9%; The second is China, accounting for 29.7%; Third, South Korea accounted for 16.2%.
3. The Daily Telegraph: It is too early to promise to build infrastructure for Britain, which may need digital pounds in the future. The creation of digital currency is expected to take several years. Officials have identified 2025 as the 'earliest' date when banks can start to build and test currency prototypes, and the earliest date of official launch is expected to be in the late 2020's.
Industry observation
1. People's Daily: Since the establishment of the National Health Insurance Bureau in 2018, the prices of pharmaceutical consumables have been continuously squeezed, and the average price of 294 kinds of pharmaceuticals in 7 batches has been reduced by more than 50%, and the average price of 4 kinds of consumables in 3 batches has been reduced by more than 80%; The cumulative reduction of drug consumption cost exceeded 400 billion yuan by overlapping the centralized purchase of local alliances. The proportion of patients who use high quality drugs of centralized collection has increased from 50% to more than 90%.
2. Shanghai Securities News: The 24 Solar Terms Spring Series of Kweichow Moutai Liquor Press Conference released a total of six seasons of liquor products and digital collections of the Spring Festival. The price of the 24 solar terms wine of 53% vol 500ml Kweichow Moutai is 2899 yuan, and the price of the 24 solar terms wine of 53% vol 100ml Kweichow Moutai is 569 yuan.
3. CINNO Research: The approximate price rate of LCD TV panels of all major sizes in December remained at the same level, while there was a certain probability that the prices of 65 'and 75' would rise slightly. During the Spring Festival, although the operating rate of the panel factory decreased, the relevant stock of the terminal factory has been completed in advance, and some old models need to be de-stocked. The price of LCD TV panels of various specifications is likely to continue to maintain the price level in December.
4. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Transport Association, said that the revenue of the automobile industry in December 2022 was 917.4 billion yuan, down 4% year on year; The cost of 771.6 billion yuan was reduced by 5%; The profit was 55.7 billion yuan, up 3% year on year; The profit rate of the automobile industry is 6.1%, which is still low compared with the average level of 7% of the profit rate of the entire industrial enterprises. From January to December 2022, the revenue of the automobile industry was 9290 billion yuan, up 6.8%; The cost was 7983.3 billion yuan, up 7%; The profit was 532 billion yuan, with an overall year-on-year increase of 1%. In 2022, the overall profit performance of the automobile industry was not strong, with a sales profit margin of only 5.7%, which was significantly lower than the historical normal level.
5. The Medical Insurance Bureau will gradually include appropriate labor analgesia and assisted reproductive technology projects into the payment scope of the medical insurance fund, and encourage Chinese medicine hospitals to set up eugenics and fertility clinics to provide infertility diagnosis and treatment services. The medical insurance department has always attached great importance to population issues, and currently has included eligible fertility support drugs, such as bromocriptine and other ovulation promoting drugs, into the scope of medical insurance payment.
6. Business Korea: The operating profit of Samsung Electronics' wafer foundry business last year exceeded 2 trillion won. It is estimated that the combined sales of Samsung Electronics wafer foundry and system LSI department will be 29.93 trillion won and the combined operating profit will be 2.6 trillion - 3.5 trillion won in 2022.
Insight Economics
1. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: issued a statement on the US side's claim to shoot down the Chinese unmanned airship. China expressed strong dissatisfaction and protest against the use of force by the United States to attack civilian unmanned airships. After verification, China has repeatedly informed the United States that the airship is of a civilian nature, and its entry into the United States due to force majeure is completely accidental. The Chinese side clearly requests the United States to properly handle it in a calm, professional and restrained manner. The spokesman of the US Department of Defense also said that the balloon would not pose a military and personal threat to ground personnel. In this case, the United States insisted on using force, obviously overreacted and seriously violated international practice. China will resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of relevant enterprises and reserve the right to make further necessary responses.
2. Petronet, the Korean oil information website, said that the domestic aviation fuel consumption in Korea was 25.27 million barrels in 2012, up 19.4% year on year, but only 65% of the level before the epidemic. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19, the domestic consumption of aviation fuel in South Korea reached 38.83 million barrels, but in 2020, when the epidemic broke out, it plummeted by 44% to 21.23 million barrels.
3. Japan: International cruise ships will resume to be accepted in March. According to the data on January 19, 212 foreign cruise ships are scheduled to dock at domestic ports in Japan until November. In 2019, foreign cruise ships stopped 1932 times, with 2.15 million tourists visiting Japan, and the travel consumption was 80.5 billion yen (about 4.2 billion yuan). However, after COVID-19 collective infection in 2020, it stopped accepting.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 6.7465 at 16:30, down 0.3630% and 0.0726% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.7382, down 0.3754% and 0.3608% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a turnover of 830 million, down 15.25% from the previous month. So far, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6555.
3. US equities: Last Friday, the Dow fell 0.38% to 33926.01, down 0.15% for the week; The S&P 500 index fell 1.04% to 4136.48, up 1.62% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 1.59% to 12006.96, up 3.31% for the week.
4. Europe: Last Friday, Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.21% to 15476.43, up 2.15% for the week; France's CAC40 index rose 0.94% to 7233.94, up 1.93% for the week; The FTSE 100 index rose 1.04% to 7901.80, up 1.76% for the week.
5. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX April gold futures closed down 2.8% at 1876.60 US dollars/ounce, down 3.54% for the week.
6. Crude oil: last Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed down 3.28% at 73.39 USD/barrel, down 7.89% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 2.71% lower at $79.94 per barrel, down 7.47% for the week.
·Silicon industry is eager for demand recovery·
► Securities Times: Since the beginning of the year, driven by photovoltaic demand, polysilicon has risen one after another, becoming the most dazzling link in the industrial chain again. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the price of domestic polysilicon continued to stabilize and rise before the festival. Last week, the price of various categories of silicon materials increased by about 31% compared with two weeks ago. The mainstream transaction price of single crystal dense materials was between 208000 and 22000 yuan/ton, and the highest price reached more than 230000 yuan/ton. The market expects that there will be a shortage of supply in the first ten days of this month, accompanied by the phenomenon of being reluctant to sell and covering the market. The industry said that the price of silicon materials this year showed a trend of high before and low after. Although it rebounded at this stage, it will not continue to rise as last year; Downstream links will also share the profits from silicon material price reduction.
► Silicon Industry Branch of China Non-ferrous Metal Industry Association: The main reason for this round of silicon material price increase is that the price of silicon wafer has been the first to stabilize and rise compared with the price of silicon material before the festival, and the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has also increased significantly, and the demand for silicon material has increased considerably; The price of silicon materials has also begun to stabilize and recover before the festival. In addition, the raw materials of silicon chip enterprises have been exhausted during the Spring Festival holiday, and the demand for silicon materials procurement has increased significantly in the first week after the festival, supporting the continued upward trend of silicon materials prices. The fluctuation of silicon material price is the result of upstream and downstream game, reflecting the lack of coordination between upstream and downstream. In December of last year, silicon wafer enterprises reduced their silicon material procurement in order to reduce inventory, resulting in a sharp drop in silicon material prices. In January of this year, when silicon chip enterprises need to stock up, silicon material enterprises have a willingness to raise prices.
► Beijing News: In 2022, the capacity of silicon material will be about 1.2 million tons, and the output will be about 0.8 million tons. It is optimistic that the capacity will double from the previous year in 2023, and the output will rise to about 1.4 million tons. The 1.4 million tons of silicon material at the supply end is expected to support the production of about 600 gigawatts of components, which is about 470 to 480 gigawatts based on the installed capacity. Considering the continuous demand of the overseas market and the construction progress of the domestic scenery base at the demand end, it is expected that there will be no special shortage of silicon material supply this year, but it is still affected by the overall price adjustment and profit distribution of the industrial chain. As for the enterprise itself, integration helps the enterprise to give play to the ability of collaborative development, gain cost advantages, and control profits in its own hands.
► Cinda Securities: As an important terminal market of the silicon industry, building materials are also the most important demand variable. It is also the upstream raw material of building materials. Recently, titanium dioxide enterprises have taken the lead in raising the price, and the expectation of the cement industry's recovery has also increased significantly. The impact factors of the epidemic this year are expected to be eliminated, the marginal restoration of real estate and the release of superimposed infrastructure construction demand are expected, and the overall situation is relatively optimistic. On the one hand, the construction side is expected to alleviate the impact of construction delays caused by labor availability, raw material transportation obstacles and other issues, which may be greatly improved. On the other hand, the project funds under the background of stable growth are expected to become more abundant.
报错
笔记