Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. Central Bank: Guide and supervise financial institutions in Zhejiang to increase their work efforts and jointly promote the optimization of payment services. Continuously building a payment system with multiple payment methods developing in parallel and complementing each other, effectively enhancing the compatibility and inclusiveness of various payment services, and providing higher quality, efficient, and convenient payment services for the elderly, foreign visitors to China, and other groups.
2. Xinhua News Agency: Goldman Sachs and Citigroup recently released reports stating that the Chinese economy has started well in 2024, and it is expected that the Chinese government's GDP growth target of around 5% can be achieved. They have also raised their forecast for the full year 2024 GDP growth rate in China. Among them, Goldman Sachs increased from 4.8% to 5.0%, and Citigroup increased from 4.6% to 5.0%.
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of now, 13.2% of the intended area for spring sowing of grain in China has been completed, with a progress slightly faster than the same period by 0.1 percentage points. The weather in most parts of the country is sunny, and spring plowing and preparation in Northeast China are being carried out in an orderly manner, with over 70% of rice seedlings being raised. 37.9% of spring wheat has been sown nationwide, 10.3% of spring corn has been sown, and 4.7% of spring soybeans have been sown. The overall progress of spring broadcasting nationwide is smooth.
4. From January 1 to April 9, 2024, the number of international tourists to Thailand has exceeded 10 million, reaching 10.17 million, a year-on-year increase of 146%. Among them, the number of tourists from Chinese Mainland is the largest, 1.92 million; Malaysia ranks second with 1.27 million visitors; Russia, South Korea, and India rank third to fifth respectively.
Stock market inventory
1. Hong Kong Stock Exchange: Recently, Himalaya submitted a prospectus. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and CICC are co sponsors. Himalaya's revenue in 2023 was 6.16 billion yuan, with a net profit of 224 million yuan. The average monthly active users in the entire scene are 303 million, and the average monthly active users on mobile devices are 133 million.
2. Caixin News Agency: On April 12th, the new "National Nine Articles" and a series of supporting measures and solicitation drafts for the securities regulatory system were introduced. Some market participants have calculated that over 1000 companies in A-shares will be ST affected due to low dividend amounts based on the new revised rules for dividend amounts. Professional calculations have found errors in the aforementioned analysis methods and conclusions. According to current financial data, it is estimated that more than 80 companies will meet the ST standard. In addition, the rules will only be applied for the first time in 2025, and it is expected that the actual number of affected households will be even smaller.
3. China International Capital Corporation (CICC): Recent economic data in the United States has mostly exceeded expectations, with a slowdown in inflation, a strong labor market, stable consumer spending, and a recovery in the real estate and manufacturing industries. The improvement in external demand related to these goods has supported China's exports. Looking ahead, it is expected that with the decrease of the base, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in April may significantly improve compared to March.
Wealth Focus
1. Securities Daily: Currently, commercial banks are rushing to enter the automotive consumer finance market, offering discounts such as interest rates, installment subsidies, and installment cashback subsidies. Recently, many regions have introduced policies to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, further opening up the space for the automotive consumption finance market; Commercial banks need to increase their layout in the automotive consumer finance market.
2. CCTV Finance: Gold prices continue to rise, and multiple financial institutions have also launched multiple wealth management products linked to gold. The main products are "fixed income+gold" wealth management products and structured wealth management products linked to gold targets. Industry insiders say that although gold has a certain hedging function, the volatility of gold prices cannot be ignored.
3. Shanghai Guopai Company: The April license plate auction will be held on April 20th (10:30-11:30), with a total auction amount of 8515 individual passenger cars for this month. The warning price is 92100 yuan.
4. 10x Research: As Bitcoin miners prepare to sell most of their Bitcoin inventory, the cryptocurrency market may face significant challenges during the six-month summer lull. After halving, Bitcoin miners may liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC, and this suspense of selling may last for four to six months, which explains why Bitcoin may consolidate sideways in the coming months.
Industry observation
1. China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): The first offshore deep well independently designed and implemented by China has officially been put into operation. The drilling depth of this well reaches 9508 meters. Unlike vertical wells, it has a vertical depth of only about 2000 meters, but has continued to drill 8689 meters in the horizontal direction underground on the seabed. Not only has it created the record for the deepest offshore drilling in China, but it has also broken the horizontal length record for offshore drilling in China.
2. Economic Daily: Currently, single episode payment, advertising placement, and membership subscription are the main ways to monetize the revenue of short dramas. Since 2023, more than 40 short drama applications have ventured into overseas markets, with internal purchase revenue reaching $170 million. The commercial value of high-quality short dramas needs to be further developed, and there is no need to calculate consumers in the paid format. The short drama industry needs to shift from "piling up traffic and gambling on popular products" to "controlling quantity and improving quality to win reputation", and the track can become wider and wider.
3. China Securities News: According to Gartner's emerging technology maturity curve, the low altitude economy has passed the foam trough and gradually entered a mature and stable development stage. Industry insiders believe that the commercialization exploration of low altitude economy is accelerating, and the next two to three years will be a critical stage.
4. Shanghai Stock Exchange: With the upcoming implementation of a new round of "trade in" policy for household appliances, household appliance consumption may usher in a new wave of enthusiasm. The sales of Shanghai Suning.com reached a new high this week, with over 50% of consumers inquiring about "government subsidies" and "trade in" activities. The passenger flow of all stores in the city increased by over 70%, and the sales of green intelligent products such as primary energy efficiency and primary water efficiency increased by 150% month on month.
5. Guangdong Province: Encourage automobile production and distribution enterprises to provide car purchase discounts and benefits through issuing replacement subsidies, gifting charging stations, and other forms to promote automobile renewal consumption. Strictly implement the mandatory scrapping standards for motor vehicles and vehicle safety and environmental protection inspection standards, and eliminate old cars that meet the mandatory scrapping standards in accordance with the law and regulations. Guangzhou and Shenzhen have further relaxed restrictions on car registration quotas.
6. Pengpai News: Xu Jie's team from Fudan University Shanghai Medical College published a research paper in the journal Cell on April 12th, revealing the key role of CD3L1 in tumor immune escape and testicular immune exemption. This is the first report of a novel target CD3L1 antibody for tumor immunotherapy, which is expected to bring new breakthroughs to tumor immunotherapy.
7. Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association: The 2023-2024 sugarcane harvest season in Brazil has ended, with a total sugarcane production of 654 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, setting a record for the highest sugarcane production in history. Meanwhile, the production of sucrose and ethanol this season has also broken historical records, reaching 42 million tons and 33.5 billion liters respectively.
8. Reference news: It is reported that as the Australian federal government eagerly reduces the number of temporary immigrants before the next election, international students may be hit by much higher and non refundable visa application fees. The budget for May is almost certain to include a significant increase of several hundred dollars in visa application fees, but it is unlikely to reach the $2500 advocated by the Glaton Institute earlier this year.
Financial data
1. Securities Daily: The macroeconomic confidence index, fixed income investment confidence index, and equity investment confidence index of the asset management industry in the second quarter have all increased compared to the first quarter. The fixed income investment confidence index has risen for two consecutive quarters. Insurance companies and insurance asset management companies believe that bonds in the second quarter still have high allocation value, especially long-term interest rate bonds.