Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. CITIC Securities: The deposit pricing adjustment this time is estimated to have a positive contribution of about 3bps -4bps to the annualized net interest margin of state-owned large banks (Postal Savings Bank of China has a positive contribution of about 5.5bps to the net interest margin due to the high proportion of fixed deposits), while the previous 1Y/5Y LPR reduction of 10bps is estimated to have a negative impact of about 3bps on the annualized net interest margin of state-owned large banks. It is expected that the deposit listing interest rate reduction this time can significantly alleviate the pricing pressure caused by the LPR reduction.
2. Xinhua News Agency: In June of this year, in the global payment currency ranking based on amount statistics, the Chinese yuan accounted for 4.61%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points month on month, ranking fourth in the world for the eighth consecutive month. Compared to November 2022, the share of RMB in global payments almost doubled in June this year, with a proportion of only 2.37% at that time.
3. China News Service: On July 28th, the Malaysian Prime Minister's Office issued a statement stating that Malaysia has sent a letter to Russia, the rotating chair of the BRICS countries, applying to join the BRICS cooperation mechanism.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.14% at 2890.90 points, down 3.07% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed up 1.45% at 8597.17 points, down 3.44% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed up 0.92% at 1659.53 points, down 3.82% for the week.
2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.10% at 17021.31 points, down 2.28% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 0.66% at 3443.73 points, down 2.62% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed down 0.10% at 6010.64 points, down 2.50% for the week.
3. CITIC Securities: After the Third Plenum, the "two new" and interest rate cut policies exceeded expectations and intensified. In the future, policies need to be strengthened in three aspects to improve confidence; The global market risk appetite has significantly decreased, but there is not much room for further outflows of funds from A-shares; There are already two gradually becoming clear in policies, prices, and external signals, which will drive the repair of extremely pessimistic market sentiment.
4. Securities Times: From July 22nd to 26th, 57 institutions conducted a total of 343 ratings, and a total of 234 stocks were given a "buy" rating by securities research reports. The group with the highest institutional attention is Topu Group, with a total of 13 institutions participating in the rating.
5. Caixin News Agency: Since July, 13 listed companies including * ST Baoli, * ST Gaosheng, Yuebo Tui, ST Yili, Sansheng Tui, ST Zhongnan, * ST Yilian, ST Sunshine, Kaima B, Tai'an Tui, Delisted Tongda, Delisted Yuancheng, and Delisted Carbon Yuan have delisted. Among them, * ST Shentian became the first A-share stock to be delisted in terms of market value.
6. Shanghai Stock Exchange News: Currently, there is a significant increase in overseas listings of Chinese enterprises. As of June, Nasdaq has a total of 3341 listed companies with a total market value of $25.91 trillion; Among them, 245 Chinese companies are listed on NASDAQ with a total market value of $497.4 billion.
7. China Fund News: Since the beginning of this year, public funds have shown a "cooling" trend in convertible bond investment. Data shows that the number of funds investing in convertible bond assets in the second quarter has dropped to 2031, hitting a new low in nearly four years, and the market value of publicly held convertible bonds continues to decline.
8. Securities firms in China: As of July 27th, 27 securities firms have disclosed their performance profiles for the first half of the year. Among them, the net profits of 17 securities firms have all declined compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of more than 50%. Ten securities firms achieved an increase in net profit, with two of them turning losses into profits.
9. China Fund News: Since July this year, ESG themed, "Three Rural Issues" themed, technology themed and other wealth management products have been frequently launched. Among them, the layout of ESG products has accelerated significantly, and the number and scale of new issuances have achieved year-on-year growth. The existing scale of such products has reached nearly 190 billion yuan.
10. Sailis plans to invest in Shenzhen Yinwang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. The company has initiated negotiations with Yinwang and its shareholders to join the investment in Yinwang, jointly supporting Yinwang to become a world-class leader in the automotive intelligent driving system and component industry, and to become an open platform serving the automotive industry.
11. Shenghe Resources: The company's board of directors recently received a resignation report submitted by the company's chairman Yan Shiqiang. Yan Shiqiang has applied to resign from his positions as a director, chairman, convener of the Strategic and Sustainable Development Committee of the board of directors, and member due to job transfer reasons. After resigning from the aforementioned positions, Yan Shiqiang will not hold any positions in the company.
12. Fuyao Glass: Fuyao USA, a wholly-owned subsidiary located in Moran, Ohio, USA, underwent a home search by a US government agency around 10am local time on July 26th. Fuyao USA is mainly cooperating with US government agencies in their ongoing investigation into a third-party labor service company.
13. Public utility (2 consecutive boards): Announcement of abnormal fluctuations in stock trading has been released. The company's current production and operation activities are normal, and there have been no significant changes in the company's disclosed business situation or internal and external environment. There are no major issues affecting the abnormal fluctuations in the company's stock trading prices.
14. New stock subscription: There were no new stock subscriptions this week.
15. Restricted and unlocked: This week, a total of 58 restricted shares were unlocked, with a total of 1.89 billion shares unlocked and a market value of 28.38 billion yuan. Among them, Runfeng Shares ranked first on the unlocking list with 7.262 billion yuan, while Blue Sky Gas and Youlide ranked second and third with 5.386 billion yuan and 1.759 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. Securities Times: In the first half of the year, the national gold consumption was 523.75 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.61%. Among them, 270.02 tons of gold jewelry decreased by 26.68% year-on-year; 213.64 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 46.02%; Industrial and other gold consumption was 40.10 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.53%.
2. China Fund News: With the decline in bank wealth management returns and product attractiveness, the enthusiasm of A-share listed companies to allocate bank wealth management is also cooling down. Since the beginning of this year, 104 listed companies have subscribed to a total of 33.2 billion yuan in bank wealth management, and the number of participants and subscription amounts have both decreased by more than 45% year-on-year.
3. Securities firm China: Former US President Trump announced at the Bitcoin 2024 conference that if he returns to the White House, he will list Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States. During the speech, the price of Bitcoin experienced a V-shaped reversal, reaching the $69000 mark at one point.
Industry Observation
1. The Supreme People's Procuratorate: On July 28th, it released a typical case of procuratorial organs punishing the use of online violence to infringe on the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises in accordance with the law. In recent years, some criminals have used the internet to create and spread rumors related to enterprises, committing crimes such as extortion and damaging business reputation, and using online bullying to seek illegal benefits from enterprises, seriously infringing on the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises. The Supreme People's Procuratorate has released a total of 5 typical cases this time.
2. Shanghai Stock Exchange News: During this year's South China International Fair, a total investment cooperation amount of over 10 billion yuan was facilitated. As of July 27th, the cumulative amount of signed domestic and foreign trade contracts exceeded 8 billion yuan, and the cumulative online and offline sales exceeded 500 million yuan.
3. China Railway Beijing Group: Due to rainfall in many parts of the country and the impact of Typhoon "Gemei", multiple railway lines in Beijing have been temporarily suspended.
4. CCTV Finance: More and more foreign tourists are visiting China, which has led to a significant increase in demand for foreign language tour guides. Some foreign language tour guides outside of English are even scarcer. The daily salary level for English tour guides is about 500 to 700 yuan, while the income for minority language tour guides is relatively higher, about 800 to 1000 yuan per day.
5. China Securities News: The operation and development of enterprises supervised by the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) in various regions have been carried out in an orderly manner. From January to June, the total operating revenue was 19.2 trillion yuan, the total profit was 826.78 billion yuan, and the fixed assets investment was 2.9 trillion yuan. The stock assets have been effectively revitalized, and the risk prevention in key areas has been effective; The technological innovation capability is accelerating, with a research and development investment of 249.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%.
6. Securities Times: As of 20:27 on July 27th, the total box office (including pre-sales) of movies in the summer season of 2024 (June August) has exceeded 7 billion yuan. 'Catch the Doll', 'Silent Kill', and 'There's a Small Shop by the Clouds' are currently among the top three box office hits during the release period.
7. Shanghai Stock Exchange News: From January to June, the actual sales revenue of Chinese electronic sports games was 69.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.24%. The revenue of top esports games is steadily increasing, and the launch of multiple new esports game products this year may bring new revenue growth. During the same period, the number of esports users in China was approximately 490 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.52%, and remained relatively stable.
8. New Beijing News: As an important innovative achievement in the digital application for World Heritage status of Beijing's central axis, the "Digital Axis · Small Universe" based on game technology is also about to be launched. The project lasted for three years and was jointly developed by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Cultural Heritage, the Beijing Central Axis Cultural Heritage Protection Office, and Tencent. It is the world's first large-scale urban historical landscape immersive experience product.
9. Xinhua News Agency: Yokohama City University in Japan recently released a press release stating that its research team has used human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS) to cultivate liver like organs. Transplanting these artificial liver like organs into experimental mice with liver fibrosis can improve the symptoms of liver fibrosis. This study contributes to the development of new therapies for liver cirrhosis.
10. Xinhua News Agency: From July 22nd to 28th, the "2024 Thailand Future Science Power Exhibition" was held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Thailand. At the exhibition, the National Astronomical Institute of Thailand set up a booth specifically for lunar soil samples from China's Chang'e-5 mission, attracting a large number of Thai people to visit.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 4:30 pm against the US dollar at 7.2536, down 0.4612%, and up 0.1871% for the week; The central parity rate of RMB was reported at 7.1270, up 0.0715%, and up 0.0631% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 5 new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 704 million yuan, an increase of 0.92% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6148.
3. Shanghai Environmental Protection Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 302600 tons, with a total trading volume of 27.3067 million yuan and a closing price of 91.6 yuan/ton, up 3.37% for the week.
4. US stock market: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.64% to 40589.34 points, up 0.75% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 1.11% to 5459.10 points, down 0.83% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 1.03% to 17357.88 points, and fell 2.08% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 0.65% to 18417.55 points, up 1.35% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 1.22% to 7517.68 points, down about 0.2% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 1.21% to 8285.71 points, with a weekly increase of over 1.5%.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX gold futures closed up 1.37% at $2385.7 per ounce, down 0.72% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.43% in September to $77.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.88% for the week. Brent crude oil futures for September fell 1.5% to $81.13 per barrel, a decrease of 1.82% for the week.
According to data from Choice, on July 24th, vitamin D3 was quoted at 240 yuan/kg, with a 60% increase in five days and a rise of over 324% compared to the beginning of the year. It is reported that the current price increase of vitamin D3 is driven by the contraction of the supply side. Major manufacturers have stopped reporting and signing since May, and the long-term supply contraction gradually overcomes the weakness of the demand side. Subsequently, under the continuous speculation of midstream traders, vitamin D3 experienced a surge in prices in mid to late June. High prices have changed market expectations, causing traders to follow suit and raise prices, leading to chaotic market transactions.
Guohai Securities: Multiple factors such as price oversold, reduced production and maintenance, and high costs have combined to create a strong atmosphere of rising prices for some vitamin varieties. Both domestic and international demand have improved, effectively driving the digestion of domestic production capacity. We are optimistic about the mid-term prosperity of vitamins. From the current performance of vitamin listed companies, some companies' performance has not shown a significant reflection of the rise in vitamin prices. This is partly due to the varying magnitude of price increases in vitamin varieties, and partly due to the lag between company performance and vitamin market quotations.
Open source securities: In addition to vitamin D3, the market situation of vitamin E should not be underestimated. Recently, the bullish sentiment in the vitamin E market has intensified, with the average transaction price rising to 90-95 yuan/kg. This upward trend is closely related to the shutdown and maintenance of major manufacturers. Taking Zhejiang Pharmaceutical as an example, the company conducts a routine shutdown and maintenance for two months every July and August. Although the company has stated that it will reserve inventory in advance and will not affect product sales, this action undoubtedly has a significant impact on market sentiment. Vitamin E manufacturers with sufficient inventory have raised prices and reduced product supply, with prices rising to 120 yuan/kg to 125 yuan/kg at one point.
Securities Market Weekly: The vitamin industry is a typical cyclical industry, with industry leaders holding a large market share. The supply side has a great say in the market, and major production enterprises form a pricing tacit understanding, especially when the market is sluggish and the industry's "price alliance" is strong and effective. In the past decade, the fluctuation of vitamin prices has gone through a complete cycle. With the gradual recovery of profits in the aquaculture industry since 2024, the demand for vitamins will increase to a certain extent, and there has also been a significant improvement in exports. Multiple factors may drive the arrival of a new cycle.