Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have issued the "Outline of the Plan for Building an Education Strong Country (2024-2035)". The main goals for 2027 and 2035 have been clarified, and 9 key tasks have been deployed, including cultivating and strengthening the national strategic scientific and technological strength; Accelerate the construction of a modern vocational education system; Improve the strategy of opening up education to the outside world and build important education centers with global influence.
2. The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on stock repurchases, increased holdings, and refinancing. In 2024, listed companies disclosed plans to repurchase and increase holdings by nearly 300 billion yuan. Since the implementation of policy tools, more than 300 listed companies have issued announcements of using bank loans to repurchase and increase holdings, with over 40% of companies having a market value of over 10 billion yuan. Listed companies that actively engage in market value management are high-quality enterprises with good operating efficiency, and stock repurchases and increased holdings loans are expected to become new business growth points.
3. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council have issued the "Outline of the Plan for Building an Education Strong Country (2024-2035)". Primary and secondary school students should engage in comprehensive physical activities for no less than 2 hours per day. We will coordinate the promotion of "double reduction" and the improvement of education and teaching quality, and strictly control subject based training. Exploring new models for cultivating top-notch innovative talents in strategic needs and emerging fields. Establish an education evaluation and scientific decision-making system based on big data and artificial intelligence support.
4. China Securities News: Several banks have launched "Spring Festival" wealth management products, and compared to daily sales of wealth management products, the yield of such products has slightly increased, mostly by 0.1 percentage points. In addition, it is expected that multiple "Spring Festival" wealth management products will begin fundraising in late January and be launched on the banking channel.
5. Macao Public Security Police Station: On January 18th, the number of people entering and exiting various ports in Macao reached 803000, once again breaking the record for daily entry and exit. Approximately 169000 tourists visited Australia, of which 131000 were from mainland China, accounting for 77.6%.
6. CCTV News App: At the beginning of the Great Cold, many areas in China will experience a peak in underfloor heating, with many areas in Northeast China being more than 13 ℃ higher than the same period in previous years. The warmth in large areas south of the Yellow River will reach its peak, and the area with the highest temperature above 20 ℃ will significantly expand. Many areas in the south will warm up beyond the level of the Spring Equinox or even Qingming Festival.
7. The UK Met Office: The global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to increase at a record pace in 2024 compared to 2023, making the prospect of addressing global warming even more daunting.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.18% at 3241.82 points, up 2.31% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed up 0.60% at 10161.32 points, with a weekly increase of 3.73; The ChiNext Index closed up 0.78% at 2067.27 points, with a weekly increase of 4.66%.
2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.31% at 19584.06 points, up 2.73% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 1.40% at 4479.19 points, up 5.13% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 0.14% at 7108.81 points, with a weekly increase of 3.05%.
3. Financial Headlines App: As of January 19th, a total of 955 A-share listed companies have released their 2024 annual performance forecasts. Among them, 10 individual stocks including Huabei Pharmaceutical and Demingli have a year-on-year net profit increase upper limit of over 500%, among which Zhengdan shares have the highest year-on-year net profit increase of 13064%.
4. CITIC Securities: This week, the market is about to enter a critical window of external disturbances, with the official inauguration of the US President and the convening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting; The short-term correction in the A-share market has basically ended, and the rush to trade is happening. The spring offensive may be advanced. Suggest continuing to maintain the barbell strategy of dividends and themes, with a stronger emphasis on the direction of going global in the themes.
5. Bao Lingbao: The European Union previously announced the final ruling result of the anti-dumping investigation into erythritol products originating in China. The company's products involved in the case were subject to a 34.4% anti-dumping duty, making it the enterprise with the lowest anti-dumping tax rate in this round. The company's products will have greater market competitiveness.
6. Qingshuiyuan: Suspected of illegal and irregular information disclosure, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has decided to initiate an investigation into the company.
7. Nanshan Aluminum Industry: The expected net profit for 2024 is 4.615 billion yuan to 5.023 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 85%. The main reason for the performance growth is the full release of production capacity from the 2 million ton alumina project in Indonesia, resulting in an increase in output, as well as an increase in the prices of aluminum ingots and alumina powder.
8. Chengchang Technology: Expected loss of 19 million to 36 million yuan in 2024, the company's stock may be subject to delisting risk warning.
9. Restricted and unlocked: This week, a total of 49 restricted shares were unlocked, with a total of 10.397 billion shares unlocked and a market value of 117.831 billion yuan. Among them, Longyuan Power ranked first on the lifting list with 74.071 billion yuan, while Zhejiang Edition Media and Southern Power Grid Energy ranked second and third with 13.284 billion yuan and 6.38 billion yuan respectively.
10. Caijing Headlines App: Last week (January 13th to January 19th), 20 listed companies including Kangda New Materials, UFIDA Network, and Decai Shares disclosed their repurchase and increase in holdings related to refinancing. Among them, Huayou Cobalt announced that its controlling shareholder Huayou Holdings plans to increase its stake in the company by 200-400 million yuan, with a loan amount of 360 million yuan.
Industry Observation
1. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has launched a one month special action called "Clear and Bright 2025 Spring Festival Network Environment Rectification". Focus on rectifying issues such as inciting extreme confrontation, fabricating false information, promoting vulgar and vulgar behavior, attracting illegal activities, and infringing on consumer rights.
2. CCTV News: From January to December 2024, there were 371 million employees' medical insurance personal accounts in the province, an increase of 46 million from January to November; The amount of mutual aid reached 51.154 billion yuan, an increase of 6.701 billion yuan from January to November.
3. China Railway Group: On January 19th, the national railway is expected to send 12.9 million passengers and plans to add 888 passenger trains. On January 18th, the national railway transported 13.444 million passengers.
4. Luotu Technology: In 2024, the shipment volume of branded complete machines in the global display market was 127 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Dell ranked first in global shipments that year, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. It is predicted that global monitor shipments will continue to grow by 2025, reaching 129 million units, with an increase of about 2%.
5 QuestMobile： As of the end of November 2024, the overall monthly active users of China AIGC APP exceeded 100 million, doubling the monthly active user scale compared to June 2024. Doubao has taken away half of the monthly active users in the industry.
6. CCTV Finance: Recently, the first domestically developed tonnage liquid hydrogen electric vertical takeoff and landing unmanned aerial vehicle jointly developed by enterprises from Beijing and Shaanxi has successfully completed its test flight. Liquid hydrogen, as a clean new energy source, has a much higher energy density than traditional aviation fuels and batteries, and is expected to have a single range of over 1000 kilometers.
7. CCTV News: On January 19th, China achieved for the first time the "three tests a day" of liquid oxygen kerosene rocket engines, marking a further improvement in the ability of China's new generation of carrier rocket main power engines to adapt to batch production and delivery testing, and will strongly support high-density launches of the Long March series rockets in the future.
8. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): The Tarim Oilfield, the largest ultra deep oil and gas production base in China, will produce an equivalent amount of oil and gas below 6000 meters in 2024, exceeding 20 million tons and reaching a new high of 20.47 million tons.
9. China's first independently developed manned aircraft with unmanned airworthiness certification, the EH216-S unmanned manned aircraft, made its debut in Hainan and will be put into operation for the market in Lingshui in February.
Financial data
1. New Third Board: Last week, 6 new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 818 million yuan, a decrease of 7.70% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6097.
2. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 4:30 pm against the US dollar at 7.3284, up 0.0450%, and up 0.0573% for the week; The central parity rate of RMB was reported at 7.1889, a decrease of 0.0111%, and a weekly decrease of 0.0056%.
3. Shanghai Environmental Protection Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 34100 tons, with a total transaction volume of 3.212 million yuan and a closing price of 94.95 yuan/ton, up 0.51% for the week.
4. US stock market: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.78% to 43487.83 points, up 3.69% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 1% to 5996.66 points, with a weekly increase of 2.91%; The Nasdaq rose 1.51% to 19630.20 points, with a weekly increase of 2.45%.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 1.20% to 20903.39 points, up 3.41% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 0.98% to 7709.75 points, with a weekly increase of 3.75%; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 1.35% to 8505.22 points, with a weekly increase of 3.11%.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX gold futures closed down 0.4% at $2740 per ounce, up 0.83% for the week.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.76% at $77.88 per barrel, up 1.71% for the week. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.61% at $80.79 per barrel, up 1.29% for the week.
► China Merchants Securities: AI toys have both companionship and educational value, and have recently become popular. Multiple AI companion toys such as toy dog JENNIE (imitating Labrador Retriever) and emotional pet ROPET have attracted widespread attention. The representative AI toy products that have been launched so far include the innovative Bubble Pal, ByteDance's "conspicuous bag", and Casio's AI robot pet Moflin, which was released in November last year in collaboration with startup Vanguard Industries. Their market performance has far exceeded expectations, fully demonstrating the huge potential demand for AI trendy toy products in the market. Under the new consumer trend, AI toys are expected to combine with various high-quality IPs to achieve broader commercialization space.
Huafu Securities: The integration of AI toys with education and companionship has become the most promising direction in the AI to C track. The integration of AI toys with children's education, pet companionship, and the economy has formed diversified application scenarios, opening up new growth opportunities for the traditional toy industry. 1) AI toys (for children's education) can meet personalized children's education and all-weather companionship needs; 2) AI toys (pet companionship), AI pets provide new "emotional partners" for adults; 3) AI toys (guzi economy) are expected to lead the guzi economy into the era of "smart valley". The growing demand for emotional companionship and technological advancements jointly contribute to the development of the industry.
Industrial Securities: Technological advancements have laid a solid foundation for the development of AI toys, enabling them to provide more authentic and diverse interactive experiences. The breakthrough points of future technology may lie in the improvement of AI model performance, the reduction of AI model costs, and the development of embodied intelligence technology. AI toys, with significantly improved interactive experience, demand characteristics for non serious use scenarios, fewer hardware limitations, and lower cost of AI, have a solid foundation for application promotion and are expected to become one of the fastest exploding AI terminals. From the perspective of hardware investment, traditional toys have low networking rates, and Al toys generally use cloud models. Wi Fi, with its high speed and low cost, has become the preferred way to go to the cloud. Considering certain computing power requirements, Wi Fi MCU is the main product form and is expected to benefit deeply.
Guolian Securities: The emerging market of AI toys has attracted many large companies and former executives, and the natural spillover effects of large models and embodied intelligent technology are expected to drive the rapid transformation and landing of technology into products. Toys/companion robots can first open up the market for young people, who have a strong demand for companionship, education, and other services, as well as strong consumption power. They have a high acceptance of anime IP and are suitable for AI empowerment. The product landing efficiency is high, and it is easy to seize the entrance of young people and families. At the same time, trendy figurines for all age groups can combine IP and AI to achieve functions such as companionship and socializing.