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One week financial information 2022-10-08

Date: 2022-10-08
Views: 2

           Financial attention

Summary:

  Li Keqiang said that he is confident and able to maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range and promote sustainable and healthy economic development; The central bank lowered the loan interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund by 0.15 percentage points; Before the end of next year, residents can enjoy the preferential tax refund of individual income tax when they buy houses; The supervision encourages banks to further increase the medium - and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry, and 21 national banks are expected to add 1 trillion - 1.5 trillion yuan from August to December; The Hang Seng Index rose by 1000 points on Wednesday, and the science and technology index rose by 7%; BYD sold 20.13 million new energy vehicles in September, up 183.07% year on year; Haitian Flavor Industry again denied the 'double standards'.

Macroeconomy

 

  He stressed that to enable China's large aircraft to soar in the blue sky, bearing the national will, national dream and people's expectations, it is necessary to give full play to the advantages of the new national system, adhere to the principle of safety first, quality first, and make consistent efforts to achieve a good start and end, make greater breakthroughs in tackling key core technologies, speed up large-scale and serial development, firmly promote the building of a manufacturing power We will work tirelessly to realize the Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Li Keqiang: We are confident that we can maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range and promote sustainable and healthy economic development

Li Keqiang pointed out that China is still the largest developing country in the world and still has a long way to go to realize modernization. No matter how the international situation changes, we will focus on doing our own thing well and let the Chinese people live a better life. This year, under the impact of unexpected factors, China's economy has encountered new downward pressure, but it has generally shown a stable recovery trend. We are confident of our ability to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range and promote sustained and healthy economic development. China's rapid development benefits from reform and opening up. Facing the future, we will unswervingly deepen reform, expand opening up and continue to inject strong impetus into development. We will continue to promote the reform of 'decentralization, regulation and service', treat all kinds of market players equally, and create a market-oriented, legal and international business environment. We will promote global scientific and technological innovation cooperation with a more open attitude, and promote innovation achievements to better benefit the world.

At the end of September, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves was US $3029 billion, with a month on month decrease of 0.85%

By the end of September 2022, China's foreign exchange reserves had reached US $3029 billion, a decrease of US $25.9 billion or 0.85% compared with the end of August. In September 2022, cross-border capital flows will be generally stable, and domestic foreign exchange supply and demand will continue to be basically balanced. On the international financial market, influenced by the monetary and fiscal policies of major countries, macroeconomic data and other factors, the US dollar index rose further and the global financial asset prices fell sharply. The scale of foreign exchange reserves decreased slightly in the current month due to the combined effect of exchange rate translation, asset price changes and other factors.

The supervision encourages banks to further increase the medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry 21 national banks are expected to increase 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion in August and December

The reporter of the Securities Times learned from many sources that the regulatory authorities recently encouraged banks to further increase credit in the manufacturing industry in the medium and long-term loans, real estate and other fields. Among them, in terms of medium - and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry, 21 national banks are required to encourage the growth of medium - and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry of no less than 30% in principle on the basis of about 1.7 trillion yuan of new medium - and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry from January to July. A banker disclosed that his internal staff would report the data of medium and long-term loan issuance in manufacturing industry of the whole bank system on a daily basis to the management; Other bankers reported that the relevant ministries and commissions made weekly statistics and reported the medium - and long-term loan issuance of each bank's manufacturing industry.

Outlook on capital in October: It is expected to maintain loose MLF shrinking operation or continue

After the end of the quarter, whether the fund interest rate will trend upward in October and whether the RMB exchange rate will restrict monetary policy has become the focus of the market. CITIC Securities estimates that, regardless of the maturity of Medium Term Loan Facility (MLF) and reverse repo, there was a liquidity gap of about 400 billion yuan in October. Specifically, the pressure on the supply of government bonds has eased. With reference to the local bond issuance plans announced by some provinces and cities and the laws governing the issuance of historical government bonds, it is estimated that the overall net financing of government bonds in October will be about 300 billion yuan; In October, the fiscal revenue is often 'more than expenditure', and the superposition of allowance and tax refund is basically over. It is estimated that the balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure is 200 billion yuan; The demand for cash withdrawal is weakened, M0 may decrease by nearly 100 billion yuan, and the impact of foreign exchange funds is still weak; It is estimated that RMB deposits excluding non bank deposits will decrease by 500 billion yuan in October, and the corresponding payment pressure will decrease by about 40 billion yuan.

global market 

Performance of other global stock markets and assets during the 'National Day' holiday: the international crude oil price rose the most in a week since March

During the 'National Day' holiday, European and American stock markets rose first and then fell, with gains taking the lead. OPEC+announced a significant reduction in production to boost oil prices, and international crude oil prices rose the most in a week since March.

Hong Kong equities, Hang Seng Index, rose 3% accumulatively during the National Day holiday. Civil aviation and energy stocks gained strength

The Hang Seng Index closed 1.51% lower today at 17740.05, up 3% in four trading days during the National Day holiday; The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.30% today and rose 2.6% during the National Day holiday. In terms of individual stocks, Ideal Auto fell nearly 15% today, Kingsoft fell more than 15%, and Weilai fell more than 10%. Today, the three new auto makers led the decline in Hong Kong's auto sector, with Ideal Auto (02015. HK) down 14.75%, Weilai (09866. HK) down 10.47%, Xiaopeng Auto (09868. HK) down 6.04%, Great Wall Motor (02333. HK) down more than 5.75%, and BYD (01211. HK) down 3.66%.

Non farm employment in the United States increased by 263000 in September, higher than expected

Non farm employment in the United States increased by 263000 in September, an estimated increase of 255000, and 315000 in August. The US unemployment rate in September reported 3.5%, estimated to be 3.7%, compared with 3.7% previously. The average hourly salary of the United States in September increased by 5.0% year on year, and is expected to increase by 5.0%. The federal funds interest rate shows that the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is 92%, higher than 85.5% before the release of the September nonfarm employment report.

Credit Suisse proposes to buy back up to CHF 3 billion of bonds in cash

On October 7, Credit Suisse Group announced that Credit Suisse International proposed to buy back some OpCo senior debt securities in cash, amounting to about 3 billion Swiss francs. On the same day, Credit Suisse announced that it was making cash offers for eight types of senior debt securities denominated in euros or pounds, with a total price of no more than 1 billion euros. At the same time, Credit Suisse also announced a separate cash tender offer for 12 US dollar denominated senior debt securities, with a total price of no more than US $2 billion. Both offers are subject to the conditions set out in the respective offer memorandum. These offers will expire on November 3, 2022 and November 10, 2022, respectively.

The latest announcement of the European Central Bank! Worry sends many signals

'The 75 basis point interest rate increase is considered to be a proportionate response to the further increase in the inflation outlook and an important signal. It shows that the Committee is determined to bring the inflation rate back to the target of 2% in time.' According to the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank released on October 6. The European Central Bank announced in September this year that it would raise all three key interest rates in the euro area by 75 basis points, which is the largest interest rate increase since the introduction of the euro in 2002. This pace of interest rate increase, which is almost 'the largest in history', failed to turn the inflation rate down. Under the haze of 'gas break', the inflation data in the euro area has continued to deteriorate, and the signs of economic recession are becoming more and more obvious.

Tesla humanoid robot Optimus prototype is expected to sell for less than 20000 dollars

Tesla CEO Mask launched the 2022 AI Day activity, and the prototype Optimus humanoid robot was officially unveiled. Tesla showed videos of humanoid robots carrying boxes, watering plants and moving metal bars in automobile factories. Musk said that Optimus Prime is a very powerful robot with a very high output, which can reach millions in the future; It is expected that its price will be much lower than that of cars, perhaps less than 20000 dollars.

finacial capital

The strong inflow of funds from Beishang into consumption and new energy in the third quarter led the net purchase of these stocks

Under the intertwined resonance of uncertainties at home and abroad, the funds from the north turned into net outflows again in the third quarter. With the uncertainty factors at home and abroad again interwoven and resonated, the pace of capital allocation to A-shares in the third quarter slowed down again, during which the total net outflow was 19.6 billion yuan. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve's tightening expectation is accelerating, the RMB exchange rate is under pressure, the big country's game worries and other factors repeatedly disturb the risk preference of funds going north; On the other hand, factors such as the slowing pace of post epidemic recovery in China and the remaining downward pressure on real estate may, to some extent, suppress the willingness to increase funds to the north.

Which tickets did the agency investigate in September? The robot concept is the most eye-catching! These companies broke the threshold before the release of Optimus Prime

How is the organization likely to be located at the beginning of the fourth quarter? The research trend in September may reveal clues. Among the manufacturing stocks, robot concept stocks are particularly attractive. The Tesla robot 'Optimus Prime' that all parties concerned revealed its true face on October 1, Beijing time, but the institutions have participated in the research of robot concept stocks in September. In September, Yiheda and Aston respectively attracted 574 and 557 institutions to investigate, and Jingshan Light Machine, which combines the concepts of perovskite and robot, attracted 378 institutions to investigate.

Agency rating is coming! Electronics, medicine and biology are the focus of attention. 13 shares have more than 30% of the bullish space

According to the statistics of Securities Times · Databao, from July 1 to September 30, 83 institutions conducted more than 22000 ratings in total, and 2307 listed companies obtained 'buy in' ratings (including buy in, increase in shareholding, push forward and recommendation). In terms of industry, electronics, medicine and biology are the most concerned by institutions, and more than 200 stocks have been evaluated; Basic chemical industry, mechanical equipment and electric power equipment are closely followed, with more than 150 companies on the list. In the electronics sector, the semiconductor chip track is more eye-catching, and Zhongwei, North Huachuang and Zhaoyi are among the top innovation enthusiasts, with 36, 31 and 31 institutions participating in the company rating respectively.

Latest: Long term performance list is coming! Yi Fangda, Changxin and Boshi lead the way

When the A-share market was in turmoil, many investors focused on low-risk fixed income areas. Compared with equity investment, the performance competition in the field of fixed income is also fierce. Which company leads in the first three quarters of this year? Which companies have been able to seize the market opportunities in the past 3, 5 and 10 years to achieve good results? Haitong Securities recently released the absolute return ranking of fixed income funds of fund companies, revealing fund companies with good performance in the past ten years, the past five years, the past three years, and the first three quarters of this year for internal and external reference.

Industrial economy

Central Bank: cut the loan interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund by 0.15 percentage points

The People's Bank of China has decided to cut the loan interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund by 0.15 percentage points from October 1, 2022, and the interest rate of less than five years (including five years) and more than five years will be adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. The second set of individual housing provident fund loan interest rate policy remains unchanged, that is, the interest rate of less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years is not less than 3.025% and 3.575% respectively.

Two departments: residents can enjoy individual income tax rebate before the end of next year

From October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, for taxpayers who sell their own houses and buy houses again in the market within one year after the sale of the existing houses, the individual income tax paid on the sale of the existing houses will be refunded. Where the amount of newly purchased housing is greater than or equal to the amount of current housing transfer, all the paid individual income tax will be refunded; If the amount of newly purchased housing is less than the amount of current housing transfer, the individual income tax paid for selling the current housing will be refunded according to the proportion of the amount of newly purchased housing to the amount of current housing transfer.

More than 20 cities have issued documents encouraging group purchase of commercial housing: in some cities, the house price can be discounted by up to 30%

'Group buying' has become an important part of the property market policy toolbox in various regions. Many cities have issued documents to encourage group buying of commercial housing. According to incomplete statistics of surging news, since June this year, as of September 30, at least Taiyuan in Shanxi, Zhongshan in Guangdong, Shenyang in Liaoning, Tonglu in Zhejiang, Tongling in Anhui, Pu'er in Yunnan, Bazhong in Sichuan, Huanggang in Hubei, Changchun in Jilin, Suining in Sichuan, Lianyungang in Jiangsu, Haining in Zhejiang, Macheng in Hubei, Meishan in Sichuan, Hangzhou in Zhejiang, Baise in Guangxi, Zhuji in Zhejiang, Xinghua in Jiangsu, Qingyang in Gansu, Wuzhou in Guangxi, Shaoxing in Zhejiang Nanning and other places in Guangxi issued policies or activities related to 'group purchase of houses'.

Warm up! Policies and Measures Appear Frequently, Household Appliance Consumption Warms Up During the 'Eleventh Five Year Plan'

During the National Day holiday, driven by the measures to stimulate household appliance consumption issued by local governments and household appliance enterprises, household appliance consumption has increased. Many consumers choose to purchase new home appliances during the holidays, among which green home appliances and high-end home appliances have received more attention from consumers. Institutional personages believe that the policy of promoting the consumption of green smart home appliances will continue to be implemented, and it is expected that the retail market of home appliances will recover in the short term.


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