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Weekly Financial Summary 2022-10-24

Date: 2022-10-24
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Financial attention





► Industrial Securities: The current pessimistic expectations at home and abroad have been reflected in the market valuation and positions. When the overseas risk factors are gradually eased and the main line of the domestic market is clearer under the guidance of the 'Twentieth National Congress', the market is expected to welcome a wave of 'love in late autumn' repair market. Focus on the 'new half army' and medicine related to advanced manufacturing industry, as well as the 'information innovation' and 'new infrastructure' that can further spread in the next year and even in the next few years.




► Fierce news: According to foreign media reports, Pfizer executives said that the price of Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine would increase by four times next year or up to $130 after the expiration of the procurement plan of the US government. The new vaccine charging model may be promoted as early as early as 2023, depending on when the contract between the company and the U.S. government expires and when the existing vaccine supply in the United States runs out.




Macroeconomy




1. Xinhua News Agency: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a press conference at 10 a.m. on October 24 to introduce and interpret the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The press conference will be broadcast live by China National Radio and Television Corporation, People's Daily Online, Xinhuanet, Chinanet, etc.




2. Zhongtai Securities: The Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate increase in December. The Federal Reserve is considering reducing the interest rate increase in December to 50 basis points, but the terminal interest rate in 2023 may be increased, and this view echoes the statement of the Federal Reserve Dai Li. The ECB has a loud voice, and at least six ECB management committees have clearly supported another 75 basis points interest rate increase at the end of this month. The leading indicators of the euro area economy continued to decline, and the lack of economic prosperity index kept hitting new lows, indicating that the economic recession in the euro area may be close.




3. Reference news: The Guardian quoted data from the UK energy regulator as saying that more than 2 million households in the UK have defaulted on their electricity bills. By the end of June, 2.3475 million households in Britain had not paid their electricity bills and 1.8586 million households had not paid their gas bills. It is reported that these two indicators have increased by about a quarter in three months and nearly two-thirds since the end of 2020.




Real estate developments




1. Zhongfang: The monitored 'Zhongzhu 288 Index' of the change trend of housing prices in 288 cities above prefecture level nationwide is 1579.0 points, down 0.3 points from the previous month, down 0.02% month on month and 0.87% year on year. Prices of new houses fell in more than half of the cities.




Stock market inventory




1. CSRC: On the evening of October 21, the Shanghai Stock Exchange only strengthened the centralized reporting of strategic ETFs. This is after the first four products listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 8 months, the fund managers again concentrated on the distribution of related products. Since December 2021, the first four enhanced strategy ETFs in the market have been listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a total issuance scale of 5.028 billion yuan, and the average excess return of the four products has reached 3.82%.




2. China Foundation Association: The net asset value of public funds at the end of September totaled 26.59 trillion yuan. The number of public funds continued to expand, reaching 10263 at the end of September. In the first three quarters of this year, the seesaw effect of the Fund's issuance of stocks and bonds was obvious, and the bond base became the main force of the new fund, with the scale continuing to rise.




3. Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank: From September 22 to October 23, the closing price of A shares has been lower than 9.42 yuan for 17 consecutive trading days. If the closing price is still lower than 9.42 yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, the measures to stabilize the stock price will be triggered again, and the trigger date is October 26. As of October 23, we have received the notification letter from Shanghai State owned Assets Management Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Jiushi (Group) Co., Ltd., which hold 5% or more shares. If the measures to stabilize the stock price are subsequently triggered, we plan to increase our shareholding in the Company.




4. Ningde Times: received 1700 research groups, and investors focused on the shipment of power battery and energy storage business of Ningde Times. In the third quarter, the sales volume of battery system was about 90GWh, the current industry demand continued to grow, the company's capacity utilization was relatively saturated, and the sales volume in the fourth quarter may increase month on month. At the same time, the growth of the global energy storage market has accelerated significantly since this year, and the volume of the company's energy storage business is also fast.




5. Zhengye Science and Technology: It is planned to invest 5 billion yuan in the construction of a production base for photovoltaic modules and heterojunction photovoltaic cells, sign a project investment contract with the Jingdezhen High tech Industrial Development Zone Management Committee, and invest in the construction of an investment project in the Jingdezhen High tech Industrial Development Zone with an annual output of 5GW photovoltaic modules and 8GW heterojunction photovoltaic cells.




6. COSL: Recently, the overseas market has made a major breakthrough. The company has signed several long-term drilling platform service contracts with leading international oil companies in the Middle East, with a total contract amount of about 14 billion yuan. After the implementation of the project, the overseas business services of COSL in the Middle East will form a new market pattern of 'integrating into the Arabian Gulf in an all-round way, concluding a community in an all-round way, and promoting high-quality development in an all-round way'.




7. China Energy Construction Corporation: It is planning to raise no more than 15 billion yuan in a fixed increase, and plans to use the raised funds for new comprehensive energy projects focusing on new energy, including photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage and other new energy integration and specialization projects, new energy engineering construction projects, new energy major equipment procurement and other projects. The total amount of funds raised this time is less than 15 billion yuan.




8. Subscription of new shares: A total of four new shares were issued this week, including one on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, one on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board and two on the Growth Enterprise Board. They are Xinling Electric, Huaxia Ophthalmology, Neke Equipment and Nanfang Road Machine.




9. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 60 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 3.366 billion shares and a market value of 58.214 billion yuan. Among them, Haier Bio ranked No. 1 in the list of lifting the ban with RMB 10.639 billion, while Chengda Bio and Huiyu Pharmaceutical ranked No. 2 and No. 3 with RMB 5.97 billion and 4.646 billion respectively.




Wealth Focus




1. CICC: In the first three quarters, it completed a total of more than 2.7 trillion yuan of direct financing, assisted science and innovation enterprises in equity financing of about 213.5 billion yuan, and assisted SMEs in financing of more than 170 billion yuan; Since the opening of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the cumulative lead underwriting scale in the Science and Technology Innovation Board has exceeded 200 billion yuan. We will guide more social capital to scientific and technological innovation and other fields, and help the country continue to shape new drivers of development and new advantages.




2. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. Recently, the field of information innovation has attracted a lot of attention. What is the significance of industrial development? What is the status quo of domestic penetration in each link of the industrial chain? How much growth space can the new round of capacity expansion bring? What opportunities are worth paying attention to at present? Financial friends should quickly check today's financial secret tracking at the end of the article # Information innovation welcomes new momentum of development





Industry observation




1. China Reserve Cotton Information Center: China Reserve Cotton Management Co., Ltd. is scheduled to purchase 6000 tons of central reserve cotton on October 24.




2. 21 Caijing: According to the 2022 Camping Quality Research Report, the popularity of wild luxury camping increased by 182% year on year from January 2021 to March 2022. Away from the city, return to the countryside and embrace nature have become the pursuit of young people at present. They escape the noise and pressure of big cities for a short time and invest in the nature that makes people nervous and relaxed. New demands have spawned new consumption scenarios.




3. Chinanews.com: With the approaching of winter in the northern hemisphere, the export of heating equipment across China has reached a peak. Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, is the largest professional cloth market in Asia and the seat of China Light Textile City. At the same time, it has cultivated socks, neckties, umbrellas and other textile industries. Recently, the city's electric blankets, blankets, leggings and other textile heating 'magic tools' are popular in Europe and other places.




4. Gamma data: In the third quarter, the actual sales revenue of China's game market was 59.703 billion yuan, down 19.13% year on year; In September, Sensor Tower China Mobile Tour's revenue list was released. 'Genshin Impact' won the first place for a second time. Miha Tour's 'Collapse 3' and Haibi's new online tour 'Bullet Case Team' also achieved good results. Netflix announced its entry into cloud game services, and said it was currently developing 55 new games.




important news




1. Wei Lai: On the issue of 'whether there is radiation in the exchange station', he said that the shell of the exchange station is made of aluminum alloy plates with stronger penetration resistance, which can absorb and shield more than 98% of electromagnetic radiation. When the power station is charging the battery at full load, the radiation at this time is less than one tenth of the radiation emitted by a mobile phone.




Insight Economics




1. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Mantulov: The service life of the Russian part of the International Space Station may be extended to 2028. The Russian 'Energy' Rocket and Space Group has confirmed the possibility of postponing the use of equipment and modules in the Russian part of the International Space Station at the technical level, and has formulated an extension plan. 'There are no technical problems in the extension of the Russian part of the International Space Station'.




Financial data




1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar, closing at 7.2494, down 0.1617% and 0.7827% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 7.1186, up 0.0028% and down 0.1379% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, five new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.063 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.44%. Up to now, there are 6654 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 67.281 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 246000 tons, with a total turnover of 14377300 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 58.49 yuan/ton, up 0.84% from last Friday.




4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow closed up 2.47% at 31082.56, up 4.89% for the week; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.31% to 10859.72, up 5.22% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 2.37% higher at 3752.75, up 4.74% for the week.




5. Europe: On Friday, FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.37% higher at 6969.73, up 1.62% for the week; Germany DAX30 closed 0.29% lower at 12730.90, up 2.36% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.85% lower at 6035.39, up 1.74% for the week.




6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX December gold futures settled 1.2% higher at US $1656.30/ounce, up 0.5% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI December crude oil futures rose 0.54 dollars, or 0.64%, to 85.05 dollars per barrel, down 1.01% weekly. Brent's December crude oil futures closed up $1.12, or 1.21%, at $93.50 per barrel, down 1.01% for the week.




·Information and innovation welcome new momentum of development·




► Industrial Securities: Xinchuang aims to achieve scientific and technological independence in the field of information technology and ensure national information security. The fields involved in the industrial chain include hardware, such as CPU chips, servers, etc; Software, such as operating system, database, middleware, etc; Upper application, such as office software and ERP; Information security, such as border and terminal security products. In order to get rid of the current situation that the upstream core technologies in the information technology industry chain are under the control of others, the country has defined the construction strategy of 'Digital China' and proposed a '2+8+N' security controllable system. '2' refers to the two systems of the Party and the government; '8' refers to eight industries related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, including finance, petroleum, electricity, telecommunications, transportation, aerospace, medical care and education; 'N' refers to the comprehensive application of ICT products to the consumer market, including logistics, automobile, home furnishing, etc.




► Pacific Securities: According to the prediction of Haibi Research Institute, the scale of the information innovation industry will reach 922.02 billion yuan in 2022, the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 35.7%, and it is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025. In terms of penetration rate, it is estimated that the penetration rate of ICT products in terms of scale will be 41.2% in 2022 and will increase to 50.7% in 2025. From the perspective of different links of ICT, due to the technical complexity and high barriers to entry, the penetration rate of CPU, operating system and other links at the bottom of the IT architecture is the lowest, less than 5%; The more upward, the higher the localization rate will be. According to the data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the localization rate of middleware, application software, database, information security and cloud computing will reach 30.0%, 40.0%, 50.0%, 65.0% and 63.9% respectively in 2020.




► Changjiang Securities: The next stage of information innovation is about to start. The expansion of the industry and the downfall of counties and villages are going hand in hand. At present, the pace of the implementation of the information innovation industry shows a '2+8+N' development trend, which will bring many times of expansion space. Taking office software as an example, based on the number of employees in the county and township level party and government and eight major industries, and considering the gap in the digital rate of each industry, based on the short and medium term perspective, the county and township level of information innovation in the party and government field will sink, and the promotion of information innovation in the three major industries of finance, telecommunications and power will take the lead in landing, and the replacement space generated will be close to 20 million sets, about 167% higher than the overall space in 2020~2022; Based on the long-term perspective, with the further expansion of ICT in education, medical care and other industries, the replacement space of office software is expected to exceed 40 million sets, which is about 433% higher than the total space in 2020~2022.




► Open source securities: Affected by the epidemic situation in the first half of the year, most companies in the information and innovation sector delayed their bidding, project implementation and acceptance, and their performance was under pressure in the short term. After the resumption of work and production in June, bidding is gradually improving, deferred projects are also stepping up, and Q3 fundamentals are gradually improving. After continuous adjustment, the sector valuation and fund positions have been at a low point, and the sector allocation value has been highlighted. Under the catalysis of autonomous and controllable policies and digital economy policies, most of the computer track segments are still in the trend of increasing penetration and prosperity, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the fundamentals. In particular, some high-quality companies in the localization, intelligent connected vehicles, cloud computing, and industrial Internet industries have shown good growth, and it is recommended to actively grasp them.


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