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Weekly Financial Summary 2022-11-14

Date: 2022-11-14
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Financial attention





► CCTV Finance: Following the announcement of large-scale layoffs by American technology giants, the layoff tide has also spread to large financial institutions. Barclays Bank has cut about 200 positions in the banking and trading sectors. Citigroup recently fired about 50 trading personnel and cut dozens of positions in the banking sector. Credit Suisse is embarking on the largest staff reduction. It will cut 2700 jobs in the fourth quarter, and plans to cut a total of 9000 jobs by 2025. According to the industry, this is just the beginning, and more people in the financial sector are expected to lose their jobs.




► CITIC Securities: The direction of epidemic prevention policy adjustment, the expected inflection point of external liquidity, and the improvement of geographical disturbance have all been clarified, respectively improving the fundamentals, valuation and risk appetite. A share market has been fully restored, and the market is easy to rise but difficult to fall. At present, it is still in the first half of the policy driven market. The trading focus will switch from the policy expected game to the policy effect game. It is recommended to improve the balanced allocation of positions, Focus on three main lines: precise prevention and control, real estate industry chain and global liquidity inflection point, which benefit more from policies.




Macroeconomy




1. Surging news: On November 13, a netizen asked on the WeChat official account of 'Shanghai Release' whether the building where the secret connection is located would still be isolated? The WeChat official account replied, combined with the risk assessment results, to implement temporary control measures in relevant areas, suspend unnecessary flows, and screen people and the environment.




2. First Finance and Economics: On November 13, the Chinese embassies in Singapore, Canada, the United States and other countries issued a notice saying that they had adjusted the policy of pre departure testing for people going to China, requiring passengers on flights to China to undergo a nucleic acid test within 48 hours before boarding, and can apply for a health code with a negative certificate. With the continuous increase of international flights, the 'sky high' return air tickets, which were often tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of yuan in the past two years, have also started to reduce prices. Up to now, the average ticket price paid for entry-exit routes in November has dropped below 10000 yuan, about 8783 yuan, down about 18% from the same period last month.




3. Chongqing: 39 administrative units have reported infected persons, and 13 districts and counties have reported more than 100 infected persons. From the source of the discovery of infected persons, the proportion of newly infected persons found in the social aspect in the central urban area is still high. On November 12, Jiulongpo District, Dadukou District, Nan'an District and Liangjiang New Area found that about 75% of the newly infected people were found in the community. The risk of continued transmission and community spread is still high. The complexity of the epidemic and the difficulty of prevention and control are unprecedented. The task of prevention and control is very arduous.




4. Chinanews. com: It is reported that on November 12 local time, in the mid-term elections in the United States, the Democratic Party has won 50 Senate seats. With the key vote of Democratic Vice President Harris, who is also the Speaker of the Senate, the Democratic Party has kept the Senate by a narrow margin. In the House of Representatives, the Republican Party is currently in the lead.




5. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunter: The tax increase plan will be specified in the budget plan released in a few days to restore the public financial situation and reduce the impact of possible long-term recession. The UK is faced with a 'big moment' to make a choice and must give priority to the interests of the people. Although raising taxes is against the original intention of joining the political arena, we must now do the 'right thing' for the country and the situation.




Real estate developments




1. Economic Observer Network: On the evening of November 12, a document, Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Current Work of Financial Support for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market, jointly issued by the Central Bank and the CBRC, came out. Multiple sources confirmed the authenticity of the document. This is the first time that the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have issued a special document on real estate financing in more than a year since real estate enterprises were exposed to large-scale risks. The notice covers 16 supporting real estate market contents, including development loan, trust, merger and acquisition loan, etc.




2. Surging news: This year, Shanghai launched its housing supply in a centralized and batch manner for the seventh time. This batch of houses involves 57 projects in total, with a total construction area of about 1.906 million square meters, a total of 16060 sets, and the average recorded price is 72730 yuan/square meter. They are distributed in 14 areas, including Pudong, Xuhui, Jing'an, Putuo, Hongkou, Yangpu, Minhang, Baoshan, Jiading, Fengxian, Songjiang, Jinshan, Qingpu, and Lingang.






Stock market inventory




1. CSCI: In the environment of uncertain economic expectations and abundant residual liquidity, after the third quarter report, the market's interpretation and sentiment of policy signals have been amplified, and the main line has been found in the rotation and rapid interpretation. The operation strategy needs to be treated with sports warfare. In the short term, we will focus on the restoration of the real estate chain valuation, while in the medium term, we will still focus on the growth clues, and choose among new energy, medicine and scientific innovation. High Prosperity Preferred 23 years of wind/light/storage still have high performance growth expectations, focus on medical devices/retail pharmacies/innovative drugs and some leading Chinese medicines that are expected to take the lead in improving fundamentals, and attach importance to semiconductor equipment/materials, information innovation and military industry under the safety theme.




2. Huatai Securities: In 2022, A-shares will suffer from 'internal and external troubles'. In the first half of the year, the market will worry about the trend of the molecular end, and in the second half of the year, it will worry about the elasticity of the molecular end. The overseas water collection and strong US dollar are the oppressive forces of the denominator end of the year. From now to the end of next year, A shares may bottomed out before being repaired. From 4Q22 to the beginning of next year, under the pressure of the peak of the dollar, they may bottomed out again. Since then, the market has gradually bottomed out and repaired. In the first half of 2023, valuation repair will take the lead, and the second half of 2023 will be profitable.




3. Hekeda: received the letter of concern from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, requesting to verify whether the actual controller Zhao Feng has been taken away by the competent authority for investigation, lien or other coercive measures; Further explain whether the relevant matters will have a significant adverse impact on the corporate governance structure, daily operation, etc.




4. Haoli Technology: It plans to issue shares to purchase the controlling right of Shanghai Jiahang Automobile Service Co., Ltd., and the trading of shares will be suspended since the opening of the market on November 14.




5. Meiliyun: It is proposed to take the relevant assets and liabilities of the paper business as the assets to be sold out as of the benchmark date, and replace them with the equivalent of 100% equity of Tianjin Juyuan and 100% equity of Suzhou Lishen held by Tianjin Lishen. At the same time, it is proposed to raise matching funds from no more than 35 specific investors through non-public issuance of shares. The shares will resume trading on November 14.




6. Jinpu Titanium Industry: Since November 11, the sales price of anatase and rutile titanium dioxide has been increased by 800 yuan/ton for domestic customers and 100 dollars/ton for international customers on the basis of the original price.




7. Tiandi Online: From October 28 to November 11, the stock price has experienced abnormal fluctuations for 4 times, and has risen by more than 128.95% in the past 11 trading days. We will check the abnormal fluctuations of the trading. The trading of the stock will be suspended from the opening of the market on November 14, and resumed after the disclosure of the verification announcement.




8. Lixun Precision: In 2022, the total number of stock options to be granted by the stock option incentive plan to incentive objects will be 172.021 million, the exercise price will be 30.35 yuan per share, and the performance indicators will be no less than 230 billion yuan, 260 billion yuan, 290 billion yuan, 320 billion yuan and 350 billion yuan in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027, respectively.




9. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 4 companies launched subscription of new shares, including 1 Science and Technology Innovation Board and 3 Beijing Stock Exchange. They are Sains, Lijia Technology, Xinweiling and Fangsheng.




10. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 72 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 2.511 billion shares and a market value of 133.89 billion yuan. Among them, Jinshan Office ranked No. 1 in the lifting list with RMB 63.788 billion, and Anlu Technology and Compass ranked No. 2 and No. 3 with RMB 9.064 billion and RMB 8.647 billion respectively.






Wealth Focus




1. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Transport Federation: The new epidemic policy is a major benefit for the car market. The vast majority of distribution stores will not suffer from the loss of regional closing and business closure, and will operate normally. Therefore, the future development of the car market is extremely optimistic, and the car market will recover significantly at the end of the year.




2. Shell Finance and Economics: It is reported that the credit interest rate of existing banks for inclusive small and micro enterprises has entered the 'three times'. The lowest interest rate of some large state-owned banks, small and micro enterprises is only about 3%; The stock bank is slightly higher, but the interest rate of many banks has dropped below 3.5%. According to the statistics of the CBRC, in the first half of the year, the new loan interest rate for inclusive small and micro enterprises nationwide was 5.35%.




3. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. The report on the development trend of China's e-commerce in 2022 was released, and two new trends emerged? How about the 'Double 11' E-commerce achievements this year? Is the hybrid ecosystem the third stage of e-commerce development? After the 'Double 11', which sectors can e-commerce development focus on? Financial friends should quickly check today's financial secret tracking at the end of the article # New stage of e-commerce development







Industry observation




1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In 2021, the shipment of global virtual reality head display equipment will grow rapidly, breaking through the important inflection point of annual shipment of 10 million sets for the first time, and the investment and financing scale of virtual reality in China will increase by more than 100%. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 10000 virtual reality related enterprises in China.




2. CCTV: On November 13, the fourteenth China Air Show, which lasted for six days, ended. About 200000 visitors came to the exhibition hall to visit. Thousands of exhibits from more than 740 enterprises in 43 countries and regions were exhibited online and offline. 121 aircraft and 54 ground equipment were exhibited. During the air show, the total contract amount exceeded 39.8 billion US dollars.




3. Xinhua News Agency: At 10:00 on November 13, the first phase of the East Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project started the 2022-2023 annual water transfer, which is also the tenth cross annual water transfer on the East Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project. According to the water dispatching plan of the Ministry of Water Resources, 1.263 billion cubic meters of water is planned to be transferred from the east route of the South to North Water Transfer Project to Shandong this year, which is the largest water transfer since the project was opened to the public.




4. Ministry of Water Resources: From January to October, 921.1 billion yuan of water conservancy investment was completed, and 24000 new water conservancy projects were launched nationwide, all of which reached a new historical high in the same period.




5. CCTV Finance and Economics: During the heating period in winter, the demand for electric heating increases rapidly. It is reported that some new technologies are improving the stability of winter peak power consumption. At the same time, domestic thermal power plants are also increasing the intensity of heat supply transformation, becoming the main force of heat supply. Experts predict that by the end of this year, the installed capacity of full caliber thermal power in China will exceed 1.3 billion kilowatts, including 600 million kilowatts of cogeneration.




6. CCTV News: It is reported that according to the requirements of the United Nations, the Netherlands will release 20000 tons of Russian fertilizer detained in Rotterdam port due to sanctions this week. According to the arrangement of the United Nations World Food Programme, this batch of fertilizer will be transported to Malawi this week. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that about 300000 tons of Russian fertilizer had been stranded in the ports of EU countries due to the impact of western sanctions.




7. Associated Press of Finance and Economics: According to the dealers surveyed by Satellite News Agency, the Russian automobile market may shrink by 50% - 70% in 2022 in the context of insufficient supply.






important news




1. Henan Business Daily: Zhengzhou Foxconn iDPBG issued the recruitment policy, and new employees began to register on November 13. Among them, for early registration employees, after 15 days of employment, they are entitled to 4 days of isolated living allowance of 400 yuan per day; After 30 days of service, the employee will be entitled to an additional post stabilization allowance of 3000 yuan.




2. Twitter: The early launch of the $8 per month blue V user paid authentication subscription service led to a surge in fake accounts, and the service was stopped on November 11.







Insight Economics




1. US Treasury Secretary Yellen called on the US two parties to work together to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a 'devastating blow' to the economy. If the two parties cannot reach a compromise on raising the debt ceiling, the United States may fall into a debt default crisis in the third quarter of next year.




2. Reference: The European Commission approved to assist Germany in acquiring 100% of the shares of former Gazprom Germany subsidiary for more than 200 million euros. This measure can enable Germany to control the company, replace Gazprom and ensure the safety of natural gas supply in German economy.






Financial data




1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar, up 1.8876% to 7.1106, up 2.1966% weekly; The central parity rate of the RMB was 7.1907, up 0.7111% and 0.8931% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 6 new listed companies were added, with a turnover of 959 million, a 22.01% month on month decrease. Up to now, there are 6605 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 70.555 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total trading volume of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 142100 tons, with a total turnover of 8.2441 million yuan. The closing price on Friday was 58.00 yuan/ton, the same as last Friday.




4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow closed 0.1% higher at 33747.86, up 4.15% for the week; The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.88% to 11,323.33, up 8.1% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.92% higher at 3992.93, up 5.9% for the week.




5. Europe: On Friday, FTSE 100 in the UK closed down 0.78% at 7318.04, down 0.23% for the week; Germany DAX30 closed 0.56% higher at 14224.86, up 5.68% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.58% higher at 6594.62, up 2.78% for the week.




6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX December gold futures closed 0.9% higher at US $1769.4 per ounce, up 5.5% for the week.




7. Crude oil: On Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed 2.88% higher at 88.96 USD/barrel, down 3.94% weekly; Brent crude oil futures closed 2.47% higher at USD 95.99/barrel, down 2.62% for the week.




·New stage of e-commerce development·




► Beijing News: CCPIT Research Institute released the Report on the Development Trend of China's E-commerce in 2022: The Important Role of E-commerce in High Quality Economic Development. In 2022, China's e-commerce industry will show two new trends. First, the new mode represented by live broadcast e-commerce is accelerated. As of June, the number of live broadcast users of e-commerce in China was 469 million, an increase of 204 million over March 2020, accounting for 44.6% of the total Internet users; Users who only consume on traditional e-commerce platforms account for 27.3% of online shopping users, while users who consume online through short video live broadcast account for 49.7%; Second, digital technology has become a new driving force for consumption upgrading. On the one hand, digital technology has given birth to new forms and models of consumption. The upgrading and development of the new generation of information technology has spawned new consumption scenarios and brought new consumption experiences. On the other hand, digital technology promotes the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure. Digital technology enables industrial production to better meet the diversified, personalized and customized consumption needs of consumers.


► China Business Daily: With the end of the second wave of promotion peak, the 'Double 11' will officially end in 2022. On the day of 'Double 11', the battle report of e-commerce platform is still outstanding. From 20:00 to 24:00 on November 10, there were 25343 single products of Tmall that had been sold for millions of yuan, and more than 2000 single products had a turnover of more than 10 million yuan; At the same time, Tmall has also seen 148 categories whose turnover has increased by more than 100%, and the average number of daily viewers of Taobao Live's new anchors has increased by 561% year on year. At 20:00 on November 10, JD's 'Double 11' was launched, and JD's payment transaction volume exceeded 100 million yuan in 15 seconds; It was only 10 minutes since the opening of the store. The number of JD hourly purchase recipients increased by 100% compared with the same period last year. The turnover of pet health products increased by 103% compared with the same period last year. The turnover of more than 500 special agricultural museums increased by more than 100% compared with the same period last year.




► Reference news: In recent five years, the scale of cross-border e-commerce transactions in China has reached 16.2%, becoming an important force to stabilize foreign trade. The regulatory policy of cross-border e-commerce has been continuously improved, the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot area has accelerated its expansion, and the industry has entered a stage of standardized and healthy development. However, under the background of global inflation, continuous updating of enterprises and business models, and serious crisis faced by large global technology companies, industries such as e-commerce also have dangerous signals. Amazon was worth nearly $1 trillion at the beginning of 2020, but its market value is about $928 billion today, about 10% less than when the pandemic began. According to the industry, the next step will be to enter the third stage of e-commerce. There is no doubt that the industry will continue to grow, but new ideas and new participants will emerge, which will completely change everything. The future lies in the hybrid ecosystem, e-commerce+physical stores.




► Huatai Securities: In terms of 'Double 11' comprehensive e-commerce this year, the sales of Tmall and JD are stable and good, both of which focus more on the empowerment of the real economy. It is suggested to pay attention to the efficiency upgrading and brand upgrading opportunities generated by the combination of e-commerce and the real economy. In terms of live broadcast e-commerce, the industry has maintained a rapid development trend. According to star map data, the sales during the 'Double 11' period in 2022 will increase by 146% year on year. Among them, Tiktok benefits from the deep integration of 'content with goods and shelf e-commerce', and its transaction volume exceeds Diantao and ranks first in the industry. For brand operators, the live broadcast e-commerce platform, including Diaoyin with goods, still has considerable traffic dividends. In addition, the 'Double 11' has greatly promoted the entry into the new normal of development, normalization of promotion, differentiation of competition and rationalization of consumption. Supporting the real economy is the main tone of the comprehensive e-commerce platform. The development tone is 'from virtual to real', and the development goal is 'from quantity to quality'.


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