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Weekly Financial Summary October 31, 2022

Date: 2022-11-28
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Financial attention




► Statistics Bureau: From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 6976.82 billion yuan, down 3.0% year on year. The operating revenue was 111.78 trillion yuan, up 7.6% year on year; At the end of October, the assets totaled 154.15 trillion yuan, up 9.0% year on year; The asset liability ratio was 56.8%, up 0.2 percentage points year on year.




► CITIC Securities: In December, it is expected that a new steady state of normalized prevention and control will gradually be formed in the optimization process of the 'New Twenty Rules', and a new steady state of economic vulnerability recovery will gradually be formed in the implementation process of the 'Sixteen Rules' and other stable growth policies for real estate, and the new steady state will gradually become gradual, which will consolidate the foundation for medium-term economic recovery; The inflection point of US dollar interest rate increase rhythm was established, and domestic monetary policy was concentrated to provide support for A-share valuation repair. The current market characteristics also indicate that the trend of comprehensive repair of A shares in the medium term is highly clear, but the pace of short-term repair has slowed down. It is suggested to balance the allocation of three main lines: precise prevention and control, real estate industry chain, and global liquidity inflection point.






Macroeconomy




1. Shanghai released that from 0:00 on November 29, consumers who enter Shanghai's catering services (including bars), shopping centers (including department stores), supermarkets, food markets, beauty salons, foot baths and other commercial places must have a negative nucleic acid test certificate within 48 hours.




2. China Meteorological Administration: At 9:00 on November 27, an order was issued to immediately start the level III emergency response for cold wave. From November 27 to 29, the strongest cold wave since this winter continues to affect China. Most areas will now be severely cooled, and the lowest air temperature 0 ℃ line will cross the Yangtze River.




3. CCTV News: Since November 28, under the premise of strict implementation of various epidemic prevention and control measures, Urumqi has gradually and orderly restored urban public transport such as railways, civil aviation, buses and taxis. Currently, relevant work is under way. Gradually and orderly resume the production and operation activities in business places such as supermarkets, markets, pharmacies, restaurants, gas stations, banks, etc., which are closely related to people's lives in low-risk areas.




4. World Wide Web: The New York Times of the United States said that the current ammunition consumption of the Ukrainian army is staggering. Previously, in Afghanistan, NATO forces might fire 300 artillery shells a day, but now the Ukrainian army can fire thousands of artillery shells every day. Up to now, NATO member states have provided Ukraine with weapons and equipment worth about US $40 billion, which is equivalent to the annual defense budget of France. Some smaller NATO members have exhausted the equipment they can provide.




5. CCTV News: After investigating more than 10000 Germans, Nielsen IQ found that 52% of respondents said they only bought 'what they really need'; About 44% said they would no longer buy 'interesting or luxurious' goods; 31% tried to reduce eating out. About 30% of the respondents said that they 'buy less' against the background of high inflation.






Real estate developments




1. Li Xunlei of Zhongtai Securities: China's economy is in the process of transformation, which is the inevitable result of the market development at a certain stage. With the end of the last cycle of real estate, household financial management should not be too much deployed in real estate. In the past, the capital market was more reflected in the function of direct financing, while the function of residents' property income growth was not fully reflected. The capital market has indeed ushered in a better stage of development.




2. Beijing News: Since this year, nearly 50 cities have issued more than 100 purchase restriction optimization policies, including 16 provincial capital cities that have relaxed purchase restriction. The industry believes that there is still room for further release of market demand, and the new policies in various regions can at most give the market the possibility of 'stabilizing'. It is still difficult to comprehensively stimulate the recovery of demand. Downward pressure and potential risks in the property market have gradually spread from non hot cities to hot cities, which is the core reason for partial loosening of policies in hot cities. Looking ahead, the overall real estate market is expected to achieve a real 'bottom' from November to December, and the market recovery will officially start.






Stock market inventory




1. CSCI: The demand for stable growth at the end of the year has been improved, and the relevant sectors of the stable growth chain may rotate in style. The overall feature of the fourth quarter is that the counter cyclical assets are obviously dominant. Based on the average monthly earnings in the fourth quarter, the stable sector (real estate bank public transportation)>TMT (media communication electronics)>midstream manufacturing and optional consumption. The short-term style may turn to 'stable growth'. From the perspective of long-term policy orientation, self-reliance of high-level science and technology may become the main line of medium - and long-term investment.




2. China Fund News: With the landing of individual pension investment public funds, the pace of public placement of FOF products is also accelerating, and more and more fund companies are entering the market. As of November 25, since this year, 128 public offering FOFs have been established, including 16 that are being issued or will be issued, and nearly 145 new public offering FOF products have been issued during the year. Compared with the 97 established in the whole year last year, it has increased by nearly half, and it has increased by nearly 1.5 times compared with the 60 established in 2020.




3. Haitong Securities: The valuation level of A-share fluctuates periodically. Currently, PE/PB, stock bond yield ratio, risk premium ratio and other indicators are at the bottom of the cycle. At present, the economy is moving towards the early stage of recovery, and the A-share trend is improving. The policy of stabilizing growth is continuously increasing, and the second wave of growth is slowly spreading throughout the year. Priority is given to high prosperity growth, such as digital economy+new energy.




4. CICC: With regard to the automotive industry, the RRR reduction policy reflects the overall increase in the forecast of stable growth and focuses on the potential marginal catalysis of the policy. Looking forward to the next year, the replenishment of inventory will end. The overall demand outlook for 2023 is conservative, and wholesale and retail sales will face negative growth pressure. However, the recent market callback basically reflects pessimistic expectations, with new energy structural opportunities and passenger vehicle exports as the main highlights; In terms of parts, focus on the three main investment directions of electric intelligence related track, domestic substitution and strong new energy brand supply chain.




5. ST collection: release changes. Affected by the epidemic, employees in some areas work at home, department stores in Xi'an, closed entertainment places in Tianjin, and commercial real estate properties in Chongqing are temporarily closed. We will actively respond and minimize the impact of the epidemic. At present, the production and operation activities are normal, the internal and external business environment has not changed significantly, and there is no other major information that should be disclosed but has not been disclosed.




6. Today International: We have received a notice from the family members of Shao Jianwei, the actual controller and chairman of the company, that Shao Jianwei is under surveillance at the residence designated by the public security organ because he is suspected of covering up or concealing the criminal proceeds for others, and relevant matters need further investigation. At present, the company's production and operation are normal, and all work is carried out in an orderly manner.




7. Subscription of new shares: 10 new shares will be subscribed online this week, including Guanghua Shares, Ningbo Ocean, Hengli Drilling Tools, Jingpin Special Equipment, Changyingtong, Meiteng Technology, Optite, Luheng Technology, Juhe Materials and Terrex. Among them, a total of 3 will be arranged every week, 5 on Tuesday, 1 on Wednesday and 1 on Thursday. The Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange each welcomed 4 new shares, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 1 new share respectively, and the GEM had no new share subscription. From the perspective of industry, there are 5 specialized equipment manufacturing industries, in addition, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and water transportation.




8. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 63 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 13.977 billion shares and a market value of 122.403 billion yuan. Among them, Jingao Technology ranked No. 1 in the list of lifting the ban with RMB 65.137 billion, and Zheshang Bank and Huasu ranked No. 2 and No. 3 with RMB 29.888 billion and RMB 7.079 billion respectively.






Wealth Focus




1. Zhejiang Daily: Hangzhou West Lake Yilian Insurance Co insurance System will include some projects of assisted reproduction into the guarantee responsibility. The insured citizens who implement assisted reproduction in 2023 will be reimbursed up to 3000 yuan. In Hangzhou's qualified tertiary hospitals, the charging standard for embryo culture varies from 2000 yuan to 6000 yuan per time, and the charging standard for embryo transfer is about 2000 yuan per time. After the implementation of targeted subsidies, most of the costs of these two treatments for the insured will be borne by the 'West Lake Yilianbao'.




2. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. Europeans tighten their wallets to welcome the 'Black Five', and Americans' online consumption performance sets a record? Chinese merchants aim at the three themes of 'Black Five'! Behind the Black Five, will the secondary market flourish? What is the key direction of e-commerce going to sea? Financial friends should quickly check today's financial secret tracking at the end of the article # 'Black Five' shopping season to save money






Industry observation




1. Economic Daily: At present, the GDP growth of major economies in the world has slowed down significantly, and the rapid interest rate increase in the US dollar has led to the tightening of global monetary liquidity. Superimposed by the COVID-19 epidemic and high inflation, external demand growth was sluggish. At the same time, the challenges faced by domestic economic growth have also increased. The expected increase of global economic recession has brought some pressure on global trade and consumption demand. On the whole, the container industry in the fourth quarter is still in the 'ebb tide' stage, and the upward expectation is still lack of strong support. The overall downward pressure of ocean freight may narrow.




2. TCL Central: After the quotation was lowered on October 31, the quotation for monocrystalline silicon was lowered again on November 27. Of which, 150 μ The quotation of P-type 210 and 182 silicon wafers with a thickness of m was 9.30 yuan/piece and 7.05 yuan/piece respectively, down by 0.43 yuan/piece and 0.33 yuan/piece respectively from October 31; one hundred and fifty μ The latest quotation of N-type 210 and 182 silicon wafers with a thickness of m is 9.86 yuan/piece and 7.54 yuan/piece, respectively, which is 0.46 yuan/piece and 0.36 yuan/piece lower than the last round of quotation.




3. CCTV Finance and Economics: From the 26th local time, ski resorts in the Alps in southeast France will open one after another. In the face of rising energy prices, many ski resort operators said that this year they will mainly rely on natural snowfall and reduce the use of machines for artificial snow. In order to cope with the energy crisis that may worsen in the future, nearly half of France's ski resorts will have to renegotiate long-term power contracts with power companies. It is estimated that by 2023, the annual energy bill of each ski resort will increase by an average of 3 to 6 times.




4. Tesla: It has reduced the cost of super charging stations in several regions. One car owner said that Tesla should have reduced the cost of super charging stations in Los Angeles and parts of California by 5 cents per kilowatt hour. In the past, it cost more than $5 or $10 to fully charge the Tesla Supercharger Station. In addition, prices in parts of Europe fell by 10 cents per kilowatt hour.




5. California Food and Agriculture Department: As a major agricultural state in the United States, California has suffered at least $3 billion in agricultural losses due to drought in the past two years. Since the beginning of last year, the water supply of surface water in the Central Valley of California has declined by 43%. The lack of water has resulted in the failure to produce 530000 hectares of farmland, which is rare in scale. The United States is the largest exporter of agricultural products in the world, and the Central Valley of California produces a quarter of the agricultural products of the United States, with 40% of the output of fruits and dried fruits in the United States.




6. CCTV Finance and Economics: This summer, many places in Europe suffered drought, especially Spain. Barcelona and most areas of Catalonia Autonomous Region where Barcelona is located have started to implement water restriction orders. According to the regulations, the agricultural water demand should be reduced by 25%, the livestock industry should be reduced by 10%, and the industry should be reduced by 5%. It is estimated that this water restriction order will affect the daily lives of 80% of the residents in Catalonia and about 6.7 million people in varying degrees.








important news




1. Airbus: It is preparing to further delay the planned delivery date of some medium range aircraft in 2023. Due to supply chain and labor problems, it is working hard to achieve the delivery target in 2022. People familiar with the matter said that as the supply of engines, other parts and labor needed for the production of new aircraft was still uncertain, the speed was doubled. At least one engine manufacturer is under pressure to shift more engines from supporting aircraft production to existing customer spare parts stores.






Insight Economics




1. Surging news: According to a report by the British Times on the 25th, in order to reduce the number of immigrants, the British government is considering raising the threshold for studying in the UK to reduce the number of visas for foreign students. The British government has recently considered introducing a plan that foreign students who want to study in the UK will not be able to obtain a study visa in the UK unless they receive an admission notice from a top UK university.






Financial data




1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar, at 7.1615, down 0.1805%, and fell 0.4770% weekly; The central parity rate of the RMB was 7.1339, down 0.1938% and 0.3488% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 9 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.044 billion, a decrease of 9.63% month on month. Up to now, there are 6613 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 72.755 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total trading volume of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 3,460,874 tons, with a total turnover of 192,493,700.40 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 57.80 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from last week.




4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow rose 0.45% to 34347.03, up 1.78% for the week; The S&P 500 index fell 0.03% to 4026.12, up 1.53% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.52% to 11226.36, up 0.72% for the week.




5. Europe: On Friday, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.01% to 14541.38, up 0.76% for the week; France's CAC40 index rose 0.08% to 6712.48, up 1.02% for the week; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.27% to 7486.67, up 1.37% for the week.




6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX December gold futures settlement price rose 0.48% to 1754 US dollars/ounce, with no weekly increase or decrease.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI January crude oil futures closed 2.13% lower at 76.28 dollars/barrel, down 4.75% weekly. Brent crude oil futures in January closed 2.00% lower at 83.63 USD/barrel, down 4.55% weekly.




·Save flowers in the 'Black Five' shopping season·




► Reference news: 'Black Friday' may provide an opportunity to sweep the goods at a low price before Christmas, but many shoppers are tightening their belts against the backdrop of the worsening cost of living crisis. Due to the impact of inflation pressure on consumer sentiment, European shoppers plan to reduce spending by nearly 1/5 during the annual discount sales period this year. British consumers will be the group with the largest spending reduction in Europe, with spending reduced by 18%. French and German consumers plan to reduce spending by 15%, while Spanish consumers plan to reduce spending by 13%. Adobe, a retailer's website sales data tracking and analysis company, reported that American shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online during the 'Black Five' this year. Among them, electronic products are the main contributor to online sales. On the day of 'Black Friday', online sales of electronic products in the United States soared by 221% compared with the average level in October.


► China Youth Network: In view of the tight budget and declining willingness to buy, it is uncertain whether this year's 'Black Five' business will catch up with previous years. The survey shows that the consumption atmosphere in Germany, France and Spain is obviously weaker than that in previous years. The prices of various commodities are one third or even two or three times higher than last year. They have to consider living costs such as energy and rent first. According to a report on the website of Michigan State University, nearly 80% of respondents are very worried about the soaring prices. The interviewees said that they planned to spend an average of about $700 on this holiday, far less than the consumer's annual spending of about $880 in the past three holidays. Some respondents said they planned to make gifts or buy second-hand goods themselves, rather than buying new goods. The secondary market has flourished in the past few years, and many shoppers see it as a way to combat inflationary pressures.




► Global Network: China's cross-border e-commerce is also committed to the 'Black Five'. Alibaba's cross-border e-commerce platform AliExpress said that the 'Black Five' is also one of the shopping seasons that AliExpress has focused on planning in recent years. This year, the 'Black Five' set up three special sessions for overseas consumers, and the 'World Cup Special Session' planned for the Qatar World Cup; 'Warm keeping special session' for European warm keeping demand; 'Christmas Box Special Session' for the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays. According to the industry, this year's generally high inflation rate in European and American countries has compressed consumers' actual consumption capacity. From the consumer side, the rising cost of living has squeezed consumer spending. European and American consumers will adjust their consumption structure, that is, put their limited budget on daily necessities. This field is the strength of China's manufacturing industry and can also bring greater market opportunities for China's cross-border e-commerce.




► Cinda Securities: According to Frost Sullivan's data, in terms of demand, China's cross-border B2C export e-commerce clothing and footwear GMV will reach 750.3 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 47% in 17-21. It is the largest category of cross-border e-commerce sales, higher than the industry's growth rate. It is expected to maintain an average compound growth of 19.5% in 21-26, presenting a high landscape. In the future, factors such as the increase of online penetration rate of global clothing and shoes, and policy support for domestic cross-border export e-commerce will continue to promote the growth of the industry. In terms of supply, Chinese sellers have become important participants in third-party platforms such as Amazon by virtue of high-quality product supply and flexible online operation. In 21 years, their shares in the four major platforms (Amazon, eBay, AliExpress and Wish) have reached 44%; The pattern of Chinese sellers in the category of clothing and shoes is scattered, and CR5 will be 1.9% in 2021. It is suggested that relevant enterprises expand the European market and build their own stations to increase income, optimize the supply chain to reduce costs, and grow in a promising way.


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