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Weekly Financial Summary December 12, 2022

Date: 2022-12-12
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Financial attention






► Zhong Nanshan: In China, a large number of people have been vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccine. Strengthening immunization is the best protection method in the new stage of epidemic prevention. It is unlikely that the Spring Festival in 2023 will still adopt the method of celebrating the New Year on the spot, but it is still necessary to strengthen preparations. It is suggested that people who are going home should strengthen vaccination, and even if they get COVID-19, it will not be very heavy.




► Beacon Professional Edition: As of 20:30 on December 11, Avatar 2 had a total box office of 112 million, making it the fastest movie with a box office of more than 100 million in 2022. As of 20:00 on December 11, the national average pre-sale price of Avatar 2 was 92.3 yuan, and the average ticket price of IMAX was 139.6 yuan. Industry media predicted that the total box office of Avatar 2 was between 1.8 billion yuan and 3.125 billion yuan.






Macroeconomy




1. The Health Commission: based on the counterpart support relationship between urban and rural hospitals in the province, select the second level and above comprehensive hospitals with strong comprehensive strength in urban and urban areas in the province, establish the counterpart support mechanism with each county (city) according to the principle of zoning, and set up the urban and rural linkage working group of COVID-19 medical services covering all rural areas in the area based on 'one to one' close support and supplemented by 'one to many' flexible support, We will improve the medical service capacity of COVID-19 in rural areas by means of sinking in and patrolling, dispatching professionals, and establishing a telemedicine collaboration network.




2. First Finance and Economics: The director of the Department of Intensive Medicine of Zhongshan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University said that the trend of the COVID-19 was expected to reach the peak of infection within one month. But when can it be finished later? This model is more complicated. The reason is that the virus infection and recovery do not occur at the same time, and the infection at the same time will lead to the concentration of personnel and the tension of medical resources. Therefore, orderly and gradual medical treatment can make medical institutions have a stronger response capacity, but the cycle will also be longer.




3. CCTV News: From January to November, the national railway completed 1.91 billion tons of coal transportation, an increase of 143 million tons or 8.1% year on year, including 1.35 billion tons of power coal transportation, an increase of 160 million tons or 13.2% year on year, both of which reached the highest level in history. By the end of November, 363 railway direct supply power plants nationwide had stored 75 million tons of coal, up 9.2% year on year, with an average consumption of 29.4 days, up 3.8 days year on year, maintaining a high level.




4. Xinhua News Agency: Europeans sharply cut commodity spending in October, indicating that high prices were driving the region's economy into recession when energy use began to increase. Earlier this year, the additional savings accumulated during the epidemic and the declining unemployment rate helped European households offset these higher costs, thus supporting economic growth.






Real estate developments




1. CSCI: With the financial policy supporting the continuous increase of real estate, the credit risk of real estate enterprises will be gradually mitigated in 2023. Completion in 2023 will take the lead in recovery, and sales are expected to reach a turning point in the fourth quarter. The industry will enter the era of mass reduction and high-quality development, and the leading enterprises and operation experts will become the biggest winners. Looking forward to 2023, the industry will gradually move from credit risk mitigation to sales recovery, which is expected to be reborn.




2. Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Hubei Province: issued guidance on encouraging rural residents to buy houses in cities. Rural residents who voluntarily vacate their homestead to buy houses in the city will be targeted to sell limited price commercial houses, and will be given a one-time housing purchase subsidy; For rural residents who have not vacated their housing bases to buy houses in cities, they will be given a one-time housing subsidy.




3. Poly Development: In November, the contracted amount was 37.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.64%; The contracted area was 2.264 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. As of the end of November, the accumulative contracted amount has reached 400.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.69%; The contracted area was 24.0809 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.03%.






Stock market inventory




1. CICC: With the implementation of the 'New Ten Rules' and other measures for epidemic prevention and control, the expected improvement in China's economic fundamentals has driven investor sentiment to recover. The overall impact of the superimposed policy environment on the market is positive, and the market may be repaired or continued. To sum up, although the profit pressure brought by the rebound of the index does not rule out short-term fluctuations in the future, the market is still in the layout period. We can focus on the expected improvement rhythm of the economic fundamentals in the important meeting that may be held in December, the repair of the industrial chain after the real estate policy continues to increase on both sides of the supply and demand side, and the changes in the overseas environment, especially the US inflation and monetary policy.




2. Haitong Securities: Since the middle of October, the industry has been rotating frequently, with safety, Chinese state-owned enterprises, real estate chain, consumption and other performances in turn, which is the feature of the first wave of rise at the bottom. From the perspective of policy support, industrial cycle, market and other dimensions, the undervalued and low allocation digital economy is expected to become a more sustainable main line. The policy of stabilizing growth has been implemented continuously, and the market has stepped into an upward channel. In the medium term, we will pay attention to the digital economy and give consideration to the consumption of medicine and other products.




3. Shengda Resources: released the 2023-2027 strategic planning announcement to accelerate the layout of the middle and upper reaches of new energy. Accelerate the merger and acquisition of new energy mineral resources such as lithium, copper, nickel, manganese, cobalt and platinum group elements; Timely carry out the purification of Jinshan Mining monohydrate manganese sulfate to high-purity manganese sulfate. Pay attention to the application of perovskite in photovoltaic, the industrialization process of vanadium flow battery, and layout new energy mineral resources.




4. Yintai Gold: Shen Guojun and China Yintai Investment Co., Ltd. plan to transfer 20.93% of their shares in the company to Shandong Gold, and the transfer price of the underlying shares shall not be more than 13 billion yuan. If this transfer is successfully completed, Shandong Gold will become the controlling shareholder of the company, and the actual controller of the company will be changed to the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Shandong Province. The trading of the Company's shares will resume on December 12.




5. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: The scale of A-share restrictions lifted sharply this week. A total of 82 companies involved in the lifting of restricted shares, with a total of about 59.299 billion shares. Based on the latest closing price, the market value of the lifting of restrictions was 314.737 billion yuan. Both the number and market value of the lifting of restrictions were the highest in the year.




6. Subscription of new shares: A total of 14 new shares were opened this week, including 4 on Monday (Tongli Technology, Hefei Hi Tech, Yuanjie Technology, Kaihua Materials), 3 on Tuesday (Capital Securities, Huami New Materials, Raytheon Technology), 3 on Wednesday (Jiehuate, Microconductive Nano, Ricky Smart), 2 on Thursday (Zhucheng Technology, Shanwaishan), and 2 on Friday (Chuanning Biology, Fluorite Network).






Wealth Focus




1. CCTV News: From late December to February next year, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region will issue ice and snow tourism coupons to tourists and snow friends inside and outside Xinjiang through the WeChat applet 'One yard tour in Xinjiang'. The event selected 10 mainstream ski resorts in Xinjiang to issue consumption vouchers, which will be directly beneficial to the people through full consumption reduction. It is estimated that more than 50000 consumption vouchers will be issued, which can be divided into two types: 50 yuan less for 100 yuan and 120 yuan less for 200 yuan. It is estimated that the subsidy will reach 4 million yuan, which will be launched at 12:00 on December 20.




2. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. Recently, consumption promotion policies have been intensively introduced all over the country, and the long lost 'fireworks' have quietly recovered! What kind of signals did CPI data transmit in November? What does the path of overseas consumption recovery inspire us? Will the spread of the 'second shock' change the recovery trend? Financial friends, please check today's financial secret tracking at the end of the article # Promote the consumption of 'fireworks'







Industry observation




1. The Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong SAR Government: The three runway system project of the Hong Kong International Airport will be completed in 2024. After the expansion, the transport capacity of the Hong Kong Airport will gradually increase. It is estimated that by 2035, it will be able to handle about 120 million passengers and about 10 million metric tons of goods annually, and create a large number of employment opportunities and social and economic benefits for Hong Kong.




2. CSCI: It is tolerant of new technologies and new directions. It first looks at the space and growth rate, and focuses on the rhythm of volume expansion and the industry's forward-looking indicators on volume (bidding, leading companies' involvement, orders, etc.). It has put valuation at a later position. In terms of lithium battery, cathode coating agent, carbon nanotubes and LiFSI have been applied in batches, and the permeability has been continuously improved; The 4680 battery, lithium manganese iron phosphate and silicon based negative electrode will be applied in small batches in 2022, and the penetration rate is expected to rise sharply in 2023. The sodium battery, composite copper foil and Kirin battery will enter the first year of industrialization in 2023, with a high certainty of technical direction.




3. Beijing: With the continuous optimization and adjustment of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies, the travel demand of passengers in North China has been booming recently, and flights at the Capital and Daxing airports have shown a ladder upward trend. The daily flights of the two airports increased by 63% on December 9, 100% on December 10 and 169% on December 11. It is expected that the daily flights of the two airports will reach 70% of the same period in 2019 in the near future.




4. CCTV News: The price of lithium-ion batteries in Britain rose for the first time in more than 10 years this year. The soaring price of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other battery metals, together with the rising cost of parts, led to a 7% increase in the price of battery packs compared with a year ago. It is expected to challenge the automotive industry's efforts to transform electric vehicles into mass market products.




5. TheElec: Due to the continuous increase of semiconductor wafer factories, the demand for thin film materials required by semiconductor in photolithography process is increasing, and some semiconductor manufacturers are committed to developing more advanced semiconductor materials to further increase the demand, many existing film manufacturers are developing thin film materials for advanced processes, and the supply of related semiconductor thin film materials has fallen short of demand and the price has risen.




6. UBI Research: The shipment of large and medium-sized OLED panels will increase from 26.1 million this year to 69.5 million in 2027. Among them, in 2027, the shipment of OLEDs for TV will reach 14.8 million, with an average annual growth rate of 11.2%, and the sales will reach 9.18 billion dollars, accounting for 62.8% of the total sales in the medium and large size OLED market.




7. CCTV News: The 'Rashid' lunar rover of the United Arab Emirates was successfully launched and will start a 5-month lunar mission. To learn more about lunar dust, lunar soil and airless objects. The moon exploration mission of the United Arab Emirates is an important part of its '2117 Mars Strategy'.






Insight Economics




1. CCTV News: A major crude oil pipeline between the United States and Canada leaked on December 7, which is the most serious oil pipeline leakage accident in the United States in the last decade, and also the most serious leakage accident since the pipeline was put into use in 2010. Investigators are looking for clues leading to pipeline leakage.






Financial data




1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar, up 0.3557% to 6.9480, up 1.2788% weekly; The central parity rate was 6.9588, up 0.0259% and 1.3524% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 6 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.304 billion, up 3.67% month on month. Up to now, there are 6601 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 75.317 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 18789630 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 57.03 yuan/ton, down 1.14%.




4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow fell 0.90% to 33476.46, down 2.77% for the week; The S&P 500 index fell 0.73% to 3934.38, down 3.37% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.70% to 11004.63, down 3.99% for the week.




5. Europe: On Friday, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.74% to 14370.72, down 1.09% for the week; France's CAC40 index rose 0.46% to 6677.64, down 0.96% for the week; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.06% to 7476.63, down 1.05% for the week.




6. Gold: COMEX gold futures for February closed 0.5% higher at 1810.70 US dollars/ounce, up 0.06% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI January crude oil futures closed down 0.44 dollars at 71.02 dollars per barrel, down 11.20% weekly. Brent crude oil futures for February closed down 0.05 dollars at 76.10 dollars per barrel, down 11.06% for the week.




·Promote the consumption of 'fireworks'·




► Securities Daily: In December, many places across the country issued multiple rounds of consumer bonds, and took multiple measures to accelerate the recovery of consumption. Beijing has recently issued green energy saving consumption vouchers, economic development zone consumption vouchers, etc. Shenzhen issued cultural coupons, Nanshan consumer coupons, Yantian consumer coupons, etc. Some places are about to start a new round of issuance of consumer vouchers, covering large supermarkets, catering, household appliances, department stores, automobiles and other fields. For example, '2022 Tesco Wuhan' home appliance and furniture consumption voucher 'will be issued on December 8, with a total amount of 10 million yuan. The insiders said, 'Many places, when deploying the measures to stabilize the economy at the end of the year, have taken the promotion of consumption as an important focus and launched specific measures to accelerate the integration of online and offline consumption.' The shopping malls are full of people coming and going, and the fireworks that have been absent for a long time are back. This intense, lively and vibrant life scene confirms everyone's expectation that 'everything will be better'.




► BOC Securities: The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in November decreased mainly due to the base effect. By classification, the 0.8% month on month decrease in food prices was the main impact, the 0.2% month on month decrease in non food service prices, and the 0.1% month on month decrease in consumer goods prices, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the weak service consumption and domestic demand. With the relaxation of domestic epidemic prevention policies and the stronger seasonal holiday consumption before the Spring Festival, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the service prices and consumer goods prices may rise more than expected on a month on month basis. Especially in the first quarter of 2023, due to the impact of a low base, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI may be higher than expected. However, on the other hand, the demand for stable growth of the domestic economy is strong at present, maintaining the previous view that monetary policy should be relaxed sooner rather than later. December is a better time window than the first quarter of 2023. Pay attention to whether there is interest rate reduction before and after the December Economic Work Conference.




► CITIC Securities: Through the analysis of post epidemic consumption repair in several major countries and regions in the United States, Europe and Singapore, it is found that the cancellation or relaxation of epidemic control policies will lead to a rapid recovery of consumption as a whole, which must be faster than options, and goods faster than services, with greater flexibility in options and services in the future. Commodity sales and short distance travel, which are dominated by local or short distance traffic, have recovered faster. Online growth is generally higher than offline growth. Catering passenger flow is better repaired than hotels and tourism; For long-distance travel passenger flow, especially the airlines and hotels that are more dependent on commercial passengers and overseas passengers, the recovery of passenger flow is relatively lagging behind; In the retail channel, the customer flow of supermarket has declined more, while the recovery of grocery stores and convenience stores with deeper community penetration is better; High inflation affects consumer confidence, suppresses the release of consumer demand, and epidemic consumption recovers more strongly in regions with stronger economies. The recovery of the U.S. market is better than that of Europe.


► Guojin Securities: The home policy of 'asymptomatic infected persons and mild cases' may lead to a large number of patients recovering at home in the future. Travel data may be subject to 'secondary impact'. According to the experience of Japan, although the number of domestic trips will be impacted periodically in early 2022 due to the widespread popularity of Omicron, the data shows three characteristics: first, the impact time will not exceed 3 months; Second, the degree of impact did not exceed that before; The third is further climbing after being impacted. In general, the 'secondary shock' caused by the widespread spread of the virus has limited impact on travel, and does not change the trend of recovery. It is suggested to focus on the post epidemic repair elasticity of tourist attractions, hotels, airport transportation, tax exemption, medical beauty, retail, gold jewelry.


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