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Weekly Financial Summary 2022-12-19

Date: 2022-12-19
Views: 2

Financial attention

► CITIC Securities: The 2022 Central Economic Work Conference again confirmed that the real estate market policy has seen a turning point, that is, from a demand restriction policy focusing on vigilance against rising asset prices to a demand stimulus policy focusing on encouraging reasonable self occupancy and improving housing demand, to a financing restriction policy focusing on vigilance against excessive leverage of real estate enterprises, to a financing facilitation policy focusing on liquidity support and expectation guidance. At present, the land market is at a low level, and real estate sales are gradually recovering. It is expected that the market inflection point will also appear soon. We are optimistic about the real estate industry chain and recommend excellent development enterprises.

► Hangzhou Daily: Yi Lianhong, Secretary of the Zhejiang Provincial Party Committee, conducted research in Hangzhou on enterprises, communities, science and innovation platforms and cultural heritage parks. In Alibaba Group, Yi Lianhong inspected the enterprise exhibition hall to learn more about the enterprise's development history, business sector, innovation achievements and development plans.

► Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time and track what you want to hear. As the epidemic prevention and control policy continues to adjust, where will the outbreak of drug demand begin? What impact will the continuous increase of vaccination rate bring? Which track in the industry segment deserves more long-term attention? Financial friends, please check today's financial secret tracking at the end of the article # Medicine welcomes 'new' development?


1. Zhang Wenhong: Next, grass-roots doctors at the community level will face more than 99% of the pressure of COVID-19 epidemic prevention, to avoid a large number of patients hitting secondary and tertiary hospitals; At the same time, the secondary and tertiary hospitals need to do a good job of severe treatment to minimize the case fatality rate.

2. Zhu Min, Tsinghua University: The residents' consumption in 2022 is almost the same as that in 2020, which is not easy, but it has also dropped by two trillion yuan compared with last year. It is basically two percentage points of GDP, which is also a very important reason why the economic growth this year did not meet the expectations.

3. Central meteorological observatory: It is estimated that from December 19 to 21, at 8:00, the daily minimum temperature in the middle east and south of Jiangnan, most of South China, east of Sichuan, southeast of Yunnan, northwest of Hunan and other places is more than 5 ℃ lower than that of the same period in history. Among them, the daily minimum temperature in the middle east of Jiangnan, middle east of South China and east of Sichuan is more than 7 ℃ lower than that of the same period in history. The 0 ℃ line of the minimum temperature will be located in northern Guangxi The area from north central Guangdong to south Fujian.

4. China Youth Daily: In Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, Gusu District has transformed some nucleic acid sampling points that are no longer used into 'fever diagnosis and treatment stations' to provide one-stop medical services. The whole process from diagnosis and treatment, prescription and dispensing can be completed in about 10 minutes. In the future, Suzhou will also flexibly adjust the service mode of diagnosis and treatment stations according to the changes in the amount of diagnosis and treatment.

5. Zhejiang Online: In order to facilitate the people who really need to carry out nucleic acid testing, the layout, scale and efficiency of the existing convenient nucleic acid sampling sites across the province remain unchanged. On the whole, the number of nucleic acid sampling points in the province remains at more than 17000. At the same time, social sampling points and hospitals above the second level are required to provide single tube nucleic acid sampling services to meet the needs of the masses to the greatest extent.

Real estate developments

1. Zhu Min, Tsinghua University: This year, there are about 6.5 million newlyweds. If we calculate by 100 square meters of newly purchased houses, it only takes more than 600 million square meters. The total supply of housing in China has reached 1 billion square meters a year. The total supply is greater than the total demand. The rest of the housing demand is updating the market. Therefore, the consumption of housing renewal needs new policies to encourage and support, so as to boost residents' confidence, especially the second set of housing policy.

2. Zillow, an American real estate database: In November, the house rental price in the United States experienced the largest monthly decline in at least seven years. The rental price fell 0.4% from October to November, and the rental price had never dropped more than 0.1% in the same period before. High inflation and rental costs have led to a decline in housing demand. The trend of rental growth has been slowing down since February. More and more people choose to rent with roommates or family members, which has increased the vacancy rate of rental housing, so that landlords can control the rise in rent.

Stock market inventory

1. China Merchants Securities: The policy is expected to support the economic improvement and the quarterly recovery of corporate profits, driving A shares back to the upside. However, with limited flexibility, it is more likely to play a 'structural bull'. Structurally, SSE 50 and bank house owners who benefit from economic recovery in the short term are expected to continue to perform; After the economy stabilizes, the emerging industry direction represented by the five golden flowers in the new era will gradually dominate 'high-end manufacturing, medical medicine, new energy (including cars), autonomous and controllable, artificial intelligence, and military equipment'.

2. China Fund News: As of the end of November, Morgan Fund - China A-share opportunity fund's heavy positions include China Merchants Bank, Ningde Times, Mindray Medical, China Ping An, Longji Green Energy, Huichuan Technology, Kweichow Moutai, Changjiang Power, Jinshan Software, Midea, etc. In November, the Fund added 4.02% to Ningde Times and 7.01% to China Ping An. It is worth mentioning that the Fund has increased its position in Kweichow Moutai by 100%. After adding positions, Kweichow Moutai was the seventh largest heavy position stock.

3. CITIC Securities: The overall repair market is still in the observation adaptation period, during which the market will still be dominated by short-term transactions under the stock game characteristics, and the volatility is still large; It is suggested to make a balanced allocation around the three main lines of domestic demand: medical care, real estate industry chain and travel chain, and pay attention to the theme of digital economy with positive policy setting.

4. Yiling Pharmaceutical: Recently, Internet rumors said that Lianhua Qingwen could cause liver damage and liver failure. Such false information seriously misled the general public, seriously damaged the product image of Lianhua Qingwen, and caused extremely bad social impact. The safety of Lianhua Qingwen has been confirmed from many aspects, such as the history of drug use, systematic toxicology, clinical research and meta-analysis, and the monitoring of adverse reactions in large-scale population after marketing. The instructions of Lianhua Qingwen medicine clearly reflect the adverse reactions.

5. Shijiazhuang No.4 Pharmaceutical Group: Shijiazhuang No.4 Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Group, signed a letter of intent for cooperation with a famous domestic pharmaceutical company (the entrusting party) on December 17. According to the Letter of Intent, the entrusting party intends to entrust Shijiazhuang No.4 Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. to produce ibuprofen sustained-release tablets and paediatric paracetamol huang namin granules, with the entrusted production volume of 1 billion to 2.5 billion tablets and 65 million bags per year respectively.

6. Shenzhen Textile A: It is proposed to acquire all shares or controlling rights of Hengmei Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. and raise matching funds by issuing shares and paying cash to purchase assets, and the trading of shares is suspended; The target company is engaged in R&D and manufacturing of polarizing plate, optical functional film, optical compensation film display screen materials, and selling the company's own products.

7. Ruyi Group: issued a change announcement. Up to now, the project 'Development and research of anti-bacterial and anti-virus machine washable worsted fabric' is in the pilot stage, and has not yet formed mass production. Its application and market prospects need to be further clarified. The anti-virus and anti-bacterial effects need to be tested by the market. There is still uncertainty about the recognition and acceptance of this technology in the market, and the future economic benefits and impact on the company's performance.

8. Subscription of new shares: This week, there were 10 new shares issued, including 5 in Beijing Stock Exchange, 2 in the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 2 in the Growth Enterprise Market, and 1 in the Shenzhen Stock Market Main Board, including Suntech, Huaguangyai, Zhejiang Danong, Qingyue Technology, Taihu Snow, Sanxiang Technology, Hongming Shares, Jiahe Technology, Baiwei Cunchu, Fulede.

9. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 100 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 10.377 billion shares and a market value of 118.429 billion yuan. Among them, Huafeng Chemical ranked No. 1 in the list of lifting the ban with 18.848 billion yuan, and Fantasy Home and Hemai Shares ranked No. 2 and No. 3 with 15.314 billion yuan and 12.554 billion yuan respectively.

Wealth Focus

1. Cat's Eye Professional Edition: As of 12:00 on December 18, the box office of the large market was 140 million on December 17, with 10361 operating theaters, and the national business rate was 82.86%. The number of cinemas operating nationwide has broken 10000 for two consecutive days, and the operating rate has exceeded 80% for two consecutive days.

Industry observation

1. Zeng Congqin, Chairman of Wuliangye: The structural prosperity of Baijiu industry is accelerating its evolution, and growth is a long-term trend. The Baijiu industry is accelerating to concentrate on advantageous brands, enterprises and production areas. While Sichuan takes the development of characteristic advantageous industries and strategic emerging industries as the main direction of attack, vigorously implements the quality improvement and multiplication plan of advantageous industries, focuses on the high-end of advantageous industries, and speeds up the creation of world-class high-quality Baijiu industrial clusters, which ushers in the best historical window period for the revitalization of Sichuan liquor.

2. Tiktok e-commerce: From November 21 to December 15, the sales of the core category of fan supplies for the World Cup increased by more than 400% compared with the pre match sales, and the sales of core authorized official businesses increased by more than 200%. In the top eight of this World Cup, the sales volume of goods around Argentina's national football team ranked first. Among the two teams that entered the final, Messi's sales of related goods were 45 times that of Mbape.

3. CCTV Finance: At present, Qatar has at least 50000 Argentine fans, many of whom have not bought tickets for the World Cup finals. In recent two days, a large number of Argentine fans held demonstrations and asked the Argentine Football Association to help them get tickets for the finals. Some fans said that the cheapest ticket for the finals, with a face price of $750, has now been promoted to more than $4000; The actual transaction price of the most expensive ticket with a face price of $5850 has exceeded $14000.

4. Vice President of L'Oreal China: In recent years, China is rapidly emerging as a trend vane in Asia and even the world, as well as an important source of disruptive innovation. In the future, the high-end cosmetics market and L'Oreal China will become better and better. The future urban 'silver hair clan' will be a huge direction. It is a gold mine that many people do not realize and needs to be paid close attention to.

5. Reference news: Spain has launched a pilot project to help small and medium-sized enterprises reduce their working hours by at least half a day a week without reducing their salaries, so as to improve productivity. In the first year of project implementation, the government will provide part of the salary cost fund for companies that reduce working hours, and also help fund the cost of training and productivity improvement measures. However, only workers with full-time permanent contracts can participate in the plan.

6. The Korean Film Promotion Commission: In the first November, the cumulative sales of the Korean film industry reached 1002.6 billion won, an increase of 100.5% year on year, breaking 1 trillion won for the first time after the outbreak of the COVID-19; The cumulative number of movie viewers increased by 89.6% year on year to 98.63 million, 48.3% of the same period in 2019. Over the same period, the cumulative sales of local films increased by 254.7% year-on-year to 578 billion won, 66.2% of the same period in 2019.

Insight Economics

1. CCTV News: According to the Russian meteorological department, from the night of December 17 to the early morning of December 18 local time, Moscow, the Russian capital, suffered the strongest snowfall in more than 80 years. The snow thickness reached 38cm, and the precipitation in the form of snowfall on the previous day reached 1/3 of the average precipitation of Moscow in that month. Affected by heavy snowfall, about 56 flights at Moscow airports were delayed or cancelled on the 18th.

Financial data

1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 6.9716, down 0.0373% and 0.3397% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.9791, down 0.6461% and 0.3249% for the week.

2. New Third Board: Last week, seven new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.536 billion, up 17.82% month on month. Up to now, there are 6588 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 76.853 billion yuan.

3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 2549399 tons, with a total turnover of 144400071.59 yuan. The closing price on Friday was 57.00 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from last Friday.

4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow closed 0.85% lower at 32920.46, down 1.66% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 1.11% lower at 3852.36, down 2.08% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 0.97% lower at 10705.41, down 2.72% for the week.

5. Europe: On Friday, Germany DAX30 closed 0.67% lower at 13893.07, down 3.32% for the week; France CAC40 closed 1.08% lower at 6452.63, down 3.37% for the week; Britain's FTSE 100 closed 1.27% lower at 7332.12, down 1.93% for the week.

6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX gold futures for February closed 0.7% higher at US $1800.2 per ounce, down 0.58% for the week.

7. Crude oil: WTI crude oil futures closed 2.39% lower at US $74.29 per barrel, up 4.6% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 2.67% lower at $79.04 a barrel, up 3.86% for the week.

·Medicine welcomes 'new' development·

► Tianfeng Securities: With the further optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, epidemic prevention and control faces new situations and tasks. With reference to the views of relevant experts, 'it is optimistic that the life state before the epidemic will be restored in the first half of next year' (Zhong Nanshan's team), 'it may take 3-6 months to get through the epidemic as a whole' (Zhang Wenhong). It is expected that the epidemic prevention theme will continue to be traded repeatedly to grasp the main line switch of the treatment scene. It is expected that the thematic investment opportunities related to COVID-19 are expected to continue to evolve. Reviewing the theme of epidemic prevention, we have roughly gone through three stages: prevention (vaccine), medical reserves (medical infrastructure, small molecule drugs), home diagnosis and treatment (chain drugstores, cold drugs, antigens, antipyretic drugs), and referring to the evolution of the epidemic in Hong Kong and Taiwan, China, China, The focus of epidemic prevention theme in the next stage may be hospital treatment (hospital beds, treatment equipment, treatment drugs).

► Northeast Securities: The optimization of epidemic prevention and control. The medical service industry that was negatively affected by epidemic control in the early stage will usher in a recovery period. In addition, the demand for epidemic prevention kits (antigen detection, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.) is expected to increase significantly, and bring strong economic flows to downstream industries such as pharmacies and online medical care. The pace of pharmacy expansion is expected to be repaired or even improved, and the profit cycle of new stores repeatedly affected by the epidemic is expected to improve. At present, the control measures are gradually relaxed, but the demand for drugs and anti epidemic materials is not decreasing, and the flow of offline drug tenants is expected to gradually increase. In addition, many places no longer need real name registration information to purchase 'four types of drugs' through the Internet platform. Considering the convenience, price factors, inventory status and other factors, the online platform is still one of the important channels to stock OTC drugs. In the current context of optimizing epidemic prevention and control, the frequency of online consultations in China is expected to gradually increase.

► CSC: Influenced by the epidemic control measures, the public's demand for non COVID-19 vaccines cannot be effectively released, thus affecting vaccination and sales; At the same time, the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has improved people's awareness of the prevention of respiratory diseases and promoted the improvement of influenza vaccination rate. After COVID-19 vaccine was approved, governments of all countries vigorously promoted COVID-19 vaccine vaccination, which occupied the public health resources of non COVID-19 vaccines, and further affected the vaccination and sales of non COVID-19 vaccines. After the adjustment and relaxation of epidemic control measures, the speed of new product listing and access is expected to accelerate, and domestic heavy weight varieties have been approved for listing, which continues to drive the continuous growth of the industry. On the one hand, as the vaccination rate of COVID-19 vaccine continues to increase, the demand for COVID-19 vaccine tends to be saturated, and the run effect gradually alleviates; On the other hand, the increased mobility of personnel has led to the release of the demand for non COVID-19 vaccines.

► Guosen Securities: After the optimization and adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy, the impact of the epidemic on the pharmaceutical industry will be marginal weakened. At present, the policy margin has turned better, and the market has gradually turned to the post epidemic recovery stage. It is suggested to focus on the main line of consumer health care. From the medium and long-term perspective, we continue to be optimistic about the innovative drug sector. Since the second half of the year, the transaction of innovative drug license out has been gradually active. A number of innovative drug products with differentiated characteristics and global potential have released clinical data at overseas academic conferences. More and more domestic innovative drugs have emerged with the world's first or best in class molecules. There are also more differences in molecular design, indication selection and clinical data. These differentiated innovative drug molecules will be the main force of the next wave of going to sea. In the future, more domestic innovative drug molecules will realize their value in the global market.

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