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Weekly Financial Summary 2022-12-26

Date: 2022-12-26
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Financial attention




► CICC: The domestic epidemic is still in the stage of diffusion, and the impact on the market may continue for some time. At present, the forward P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index is only 9.4 times, and the equity risk premium has rebounded to near one time of the historical standard deviation. The daily turnover in the near future dropped to about 580 billion yuan, corresponding to the turnover rate calculated by the free circulation market value dropped to around 1.6%, and fell back to the 1.5-2% turnover rate range near the historical periodic bottom. Future investor sentiment is expected to gradually improve with the expected adjustment of the epidemic situation and the policy effort.




► Health Commission: Since December 25, the daily epidemic information will not be released, but the CDC will release relevant epidemic information for reference and research.




► Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time and track what you want to hear. 2023 is getting closer to us. What are the things worth remembering and paying attention to next year? From today on, Financial Secrets Tracking will broadcast the [talkative Alpha] short video program for 6 consecutive days - the end of 2022 series of 'consensus building and hope seeking'. Financial friends should quickly draw to the end of the article and check today's financial secret tracking: how much can we achieve the economic growth target of around 5.5% in 2022? Has China's economy passed the hardest time? In 2023, will China's GDP support growth rate be 3%, 5% or 7%?






Macroeconomy




1. The Central Agriculture Office: held a meeting on the prevention and control of the COVID-19 in rural areas, which emphasized that we should strengthen overall planning and coordination, increase support and security for rural areas in terms of drugs, equipment, human resources, funds, etc., do a good job in ensuring the supply of medical materials, and improve the level of medical and health services and critical care. We should make overall plans to ensure the prevention and control of epidemic diseases and agricultural production, do everything possible to ensure the normal order of agricultural production in winter and spring, and ensure the stable production and supply of vegetables and livestock products in winter.




2. Zhejiang Province: At present, the number of newly added positive persons in Zhejiang has exceeded 1 million, and the peak is expected to arrive ahead of time. It will enter a high platform period around New Year's Day, during which the number of newly added positive persons will reach 2 million, and the peak period is expected to last about a week, and will gradually fall back before the Spring Festival.




3. Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing: In the future, efforts should be made to delay the decline of the proportion of manufacturing industry. The proportion of manufacturing industry shall not be less than 25% by 2035 and 20% by 2050. It is necessary to build industrial chain cluster with industrial chain investment attraction; Further expand opening up, speed up chain supplement, expand and strengthen the chain; Cultivate and form a group of leading manufacturing enterprises that can not only organize the horizontal division of labor between upstream and downstream industrial chains, but also achieve vertical integration; Cultivate China's own production oriented chain owner enterprises; Plan and layout a batch of complete machine products that conform to the direction of future industrial reform.




4. World Wide Web: Recently, the winter storm in the United States has brought extreme weather. The severe weather has killed at least 17 people, delayed flights in many places and blocked road traffic. At present, more than 240 million people in the United States have received winter extreme weather warnings, which is 'one of the largest winter severe weather warnings ever issued'.






Real estate developments




1. Shell Research Institute: Although currently affected by the market, the leasing enterprises are facing greater challenges in their operation, the supply scale of rental housing will continue to grow in the first half of 2023, and the guaranteed rent housing will also play an exemplary and leading role, becoming the 'stabilizer' of the leasing market. From the perspective of rental institutionalization rate, it is expected that the institutionalization penetration rate of decentralized rental housing will accelerate in 2023.




2. Lou Jiwei, former Minister of the Ministry of Finance: China's economic growth has been driven by investment for many years, especially government infrastructure investment and private real estate investment, which has indeed accelerated economic growth for a period of time. Now the marginal income of investment has declined, and the real estate is being de risked and de financialized, so it is impossible to go back to the old way. For a long time, the proportion of residents' consumption in China has been insufficient. The residents' consumption rate is about 39%, which is far lower than other countries with the same income level. Improving the residents' consumption rate is an important way to effectively improve the quality.






Stock market inventory




1. Haitong Securities: valuation and fundamental indicators showed that the bottom was solid at the end of October, and steady growth pushed the market into an upward channel. At present, it is only a temporary retreat in the upward direction. In the industry, the policy+technology dual wheel drive has catalyzed the development of the digital economy, expanding domestic demand and promoting the repair of basic consumption.




2. Zhongyuan Securities: The price of photovoltaic products continues to show a rapid downward trend, especially in the silicon chip sector. Considering the weakening of periodic demand, the expectation of price decline in the industrial chain and the risk of inventory price decline, the supply chain has the sentiment of buying up rather than buying down. In 2023, the downward price of the industrial chain will increase the internal rate of return of power station development, and the demand for installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations, especially ground power stations, is expected to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the profit expectation improvement link and technology iteration link, such as solar cells, inverters, photovoltaic glass, thermal field, TOPCon and HJT battery equipment.




3. Chinanews: In response to the announcement made by Weibo that it plans to acquire 100% of the equity of Sina.com Technology (China) Co., Ltd., it is interpreted that Weibo will acquire Sina. It was learned from Weibo that the purchase and sale agreement disclosed in this announcement is mainly the acquisition of a subsidiary of Sina by Weibo, which also holds several assets including Sina Tower in addition to its daily operations. Sina Group holds many subsidiaries and corresponding businesses. This transaction does not involve any change in management relationship between them.




4. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 106 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 8.497 billion shares and a market value of 134.886 billion yuan. Among them, Yunnan Baiyao ranked No. 1 in the lifting list with 46.224 billion yuan, and China Merchants Highway and China Telecom ranked No. 2 and No. 3 with 32.128 billion yuan and 7.911 billion yuan respectively. A total of 2 new shares were opened for subscription this week, respectively Baili Tianheng of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Xun'an Technology of the Beijing Stock Exchange.




5. Subscription of new shares: A total of 2 new shares were opened for subscription this week, respectively Baili Tianheng of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Xunan Technology of the Beijing Stock Exchange.






Wealth Focus




1. Ctrip: The number of tickets booked for Beijing scenic spots in the past week has increased by 177% compared with last week; Last weekend, the number of tickets booked for Beijing scenic spots on the platform increased by more than twice compared with the previous weekend. At the same time, the demand for skiing is gradually rising. In the past week, the bookings of ski related hotels in Beijing increased by 99% month on month, and the bookings of ski scenic spots tickets increased by nearly 10% month on month. Recent popular ski resorts include Nanshan Ski Resort, Huaibei International Ski Resort, Jundu Mountain Ski Resort, etc.






Industry observation




1. Surging news: With the problem of 'silent hypoxia', the blood oximeter, which is widely concerned by the public, is also facing challenges such as out of stock, long pre-sale time and price rise. Most stores on the e-commerce platform are out of stock of several models of blood oximeter, and some models are in pre-sale status, with delivery time ranging from 2 to 15 days. A number of listed companies with blood oximeter business said that the demand for blood oximeter products is tight at present, and they are stepping up the supply of blood oximeter products and expanding production capacity.




2. CCTV Finance: As of September, the global toy sales reached 36.7 billion US dollars, up 2% year on year. The growth rate of plush toys was the most obvious, reaching 32%. At the same time, as the awareness of environmental protection has been strengthened, environmental toys are becoming a new trend in the industry. In 2020, the scale of the global environmental toy market will be 18.9 billion US dollars, and by 2030, this figure is expected to reach 59.6 billion US dollars.




3. Counterpoint: In the third quarter, the revenue of the global smartphone market fell by 3% year on year, slightly higher than US $100 billion. At the same time, the shipment volume of the entire mobile phone market fell by 12% year on year in this quarter. As the high-end mobile phone market is more resilient to economic fluctuations, the average sales price has increased by 10% year on year. The shipment volume of 5G mobile phones reached a new high, accounting for 46% of the total shipment, and the price of 5G mobile phones was about five times that of non 5G mobile phones, which also promoted the growth of the average sales price and revenue.




4. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Transport Federation: Since 2021, with the outbreak of the world's COVID-19, the advantages of China's automobile industry chain's strong resilience have been fully reflected, and China's automobile export market has shown strong growth in the past two years. In 2021, the export market will sell 2.19 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 102%. From January to November, the export market sold 3 million units, up 51% year on year. In November, China exported 375000 cars, up 69% year on year. The performance was super strong. Compared with the domestic car sales in November, the performance of the export market was still strong. In recent two years, China's exports have grown significantly under the international epidemic.




5. CCTV Finance and Economics: With the resumption of work and production in various places, the popularity of the Capital Airport has increased and the passenger flow has increased. On December 25, the flight volume of Beijing Capital Airport and Daxing Airport was basically the same as last week. The Capital Airport plans to carry 447 inbound and outbound flights and 38600 passengers. Daxing Airport plans 306 inbound and outbound flights. From December 7 to December 20, 89000 passenger flights were actually carried out in China, which has recovered to nearly 80% of the level in the same period last year.




6. Ministry of Land and Transport of the Republic of Korea: By the end of November, the registered number of imported vehicles in the Republic of Korea had reached 3.1668 million, accounting for 12.4% of the total number of registered vehicles, breaking through 3 million for the first time.







important news




1. Li Bin, Chairman of Weilai: Affected by the withdrawal of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the domestic new energy vehicle market will bear certain pressure in the first half of next year. On the one hand, because of the early release of consumption, on the other hand, consumer confidence also needs time to repair. Next year, the new energy vehicle market will gradually recover in the second quarter, and the annual target for next year will be Lexus sales in China.




2. Chairman of Chang'an Automobile: In the next ten years, Chang'an Automobile will invest 200 billion yuan in related fields. The enterprise will especially focus on Chang'an technology, invest more than 150 billion yuan in the new automobile technology industry chain, build a scientific and technological innovation team with more than 10000 people, develop a super vehicle intelligent platform, create a new intelligent experience, layout controller and other scientific and technological industries.






Insight Economics




1. CCTV News: Due to the continuous influence of winter pressure distribution and cold air, heavy snow has fallen in many places in Japan since December 17, with the local snow thickness exceeding 1.6 meters. As of 9:00 on December 25, 14 people had been killed and more than 80 injured by heavy snow. Communication failures have occurred in some areas, tens of thousands of families have lost power, many railways have been suspended, and many flights have been delayed.







Financial data




1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar, closing at 6.9870, down 0.1103% and 0.2209% weekly; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.9810, down 0.1391% and 0.0272% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 9 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.525 billion, a month on month decrease of 0.74%. Up to now, there are 6586 companies listed on the NEEQ. Since this year, the accumulative turnover of companies listed on the NEEQ has reached 78.378 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total trading volume of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 18.1314 million tons, with a total turnover of 1.007 billion yuan. The closing price on Friday was 56.50 yuan/ton, down 0.88%.




4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow rose 0.53% to 33203.93, up 0.86% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 0.59% to 3844.82, up 0.59% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 0.21% to 10497.86, down 1.94% for the week.




5. Europe: On Friday, Germany's DAX30 index rose 0.19% to 13940.93, up 0.34% for the week; France's CAC40 index fell 0.20% to 6504.90, up 0.81% for the week; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.05% to 7374.01, up 0.05% for the week.




6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX gold futures for February closed up 0.50% at 1804.20 US dollars/ounce, up 0.22% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed 2.67% higher at 79.56 USD/barrel, up 7.09% weekly; Brent crude oil futures closed 3.63% higher at $83.92 a barrel, up 6.17% for the week.


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