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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-01-03

Date: 2023-01-03
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Financial attention




► CITIC Securities: 2023 is a 'turning year' for A-shares. The whole year's strategic allocation period and tactical entry period will overlap in January. After the national epidemic situation reaches its peak, it will open a key long window. It is recommended to increase the position and shift the configuration from balanced allocation in December 2022 to a growth oriented style. Focus on the 'four security' fields, including energy storage and scenery of energy and resource security, semiconductor and digital economy industry of science and technology security, missile and aviation industry chain of national defense security, and seed industry of food security; At the same time, it focuses on medical devices, synthetic biology and industrial automation.




► Ministry of Culture and Tourism: During the New Year's Day holiday in 2023, 52.7134 million domestic tourists will travel, with a year-on-year growth of 0.44%, which will recover to 42.8% of the same period of the New Year's Day holiday in 2019 on a comparable basis; The domestic tourism revenue reached 26.517 billion yuan, up 4.0% year on year, and recovered to 35.1% of the same period of New Year's Day holidays in 2019. The national cultural and tourism holiday market is generally safe, stable and orderly.




► Reference news website: Lithium is becoming Australia's 'new gold'. In fiscal year 2022/2023, Australia's lithium export revenue will exceed US $16 billion, more than three times the export amount of the previous year, and almost 15 times the export amount of fiscal year 2020/2021. Expectations for the next few years show that Australia's lithium exports will exceed gold.




Macroeconomy




1. Shangguan News: Recently, in response to the public's concern about the introduction of virus strains BQ.1 and XBB from Europe and the United States, the Omicron BQ.1 and XBB virus strains found in Shanghai have only been detected in a very small number of immigration quarantine personnel, and have not yet caused local spread in the society. In addition, according to the People's Daily, there is an online news that XBB1.5 virus mainly attacks cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and stomach. It is recommended to prepare montmorillonite powder. Experts said that its pathogenicity was no different from that of the previous strain, so there was no need to hoard large quantities of montmorillonite powder.




2. Jiao Yahui from the Health Commission: COVID-19 is not a big cold. We often confuse cold and flu, so we actually compare COVID-19 with flu. Cold symptoms are very mild. A week's self limiting illness can be cured without taking any medicine. However, influenza is caused by a virus and also has systemic symptoms, such as fever, cough, and severe pneumonia. However, even though some of COVID-19 will have some pneumonia, the pneumonia is far from reaching the level of 'white lung' that netizens said, and it will soon recover after treatment.




3. Hainan released that from January 3, the insured can book ibuprofen, Lianhua Qingwen capsule, N95 mask and antigen detection reagent through Hainan Electronic Prescription Center. Ibuprofen, Lianhua Qingwen and other drugs are open to the insured from 14:00 to 20:00 every day. Each person is limited to one appointment. Ibuprofen is limited to 20 tablets each time, and Lianhua Qingwen Capsule is limited to 2 boxes each time.




4. EU official: When the European Central Bank takes measures to reduce inflation, EU member states must start to reduce budget deficits and adopt tighter fiscal policies. It is very important that fiscal and monetary policies do not conflict with each other. In addition, it is important to maintain support measures during the energy crisis, but the current problem is that most of the support measures taken by EU member states do not focus on the most needed population groups, and many support measures do not encourage the reduction of energy consumption.




5. IMF President Georgieva: One third of the global economy will be hit by recession this year. The world will face a more 'difficult' year in 2023 than in the past 12 months.




6. CCTV: Gunma Prefecture, Japan, said that a local chicken farm confirmed the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza. The avian influenza epidemic in Japan continued to expand. The local government started culling 15000 laying hens on January 1. Up to now, during the epidemic season of avian influenza, the reported cases of avian influenza in Japan's national chicken farms and other places are the same as the record of the last epidemic season of avian influenza from November 2020 to March 2021.





Real estate developments




1. Xu Jiayin of Evergrande Group: In 2022, 732 guaranteed building projects of Evergrande Real Estate will be fully resumed, with a total of 301,000 buildings delivered throughout the year; Hengchi Automobile has achieved mass production and delivery of Hengchi 5 after three years of sharpening; Evergrande Property strives to serve more than ten million owners; Haihua Island operates steadily and has received 7.6 million tourists in total. As long as all Evergrande members work together and never give up, they will certainly be able to complete the task of ensuring the delivery of buildings, repay various debts and defuse risks.




2. Bengbu City, Anhui Province: A multi child family supported by the housing provident fund policy. For families with multiple children who apply for housing provident fund loan for the first time to purchase housing in Bengbu, the maximum loan amount of housing provident fund paid by one party is 400000 yuan, and the maximum loan amount of housing provident fund paid by both parties is 700000 yuan. The specific loan amount is linked to the monthly payment amount of housing provident fund and repayment capacity.




3. Changchun City, Jilin Province: The house is purchased in the main urban area and development zone of Changchun City. If there are co borrowers, the maximum amount of a single loan is 900000 yuan; RMB 600000 if there is no co borrower. For families with two or three children who have been deposited with the provident fund and applied for provident fund loan for the first time, the loan limit of 'two child family' and 'three child family' can be increased by 100000 yuan and 200000 yuan respectively on the basis of the maximum amount of a single loan.






Stock market inventory




1. CICC: At present, A-shares are still in a good layout period. With the gradual fading of the impact of the epidemic and the substantial recovery of China's growth, the market is expected to welcome trendy investment opportunities this year. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to follow the marginal change rhythm of policy in the short term. In the medium term, it is still the main line to grasp the industrial upgrading and consumption upgrading according to the degree of prosperity and the direction of industrial policy support.




2. Quanjude: Due to the recent large fluctuations in stock prices, the suspension inspection will start on January 3, becoming the first suspension inspection enterprise in 2023. From December 16 to 30, 2022, the stock price has risen by 106.23%, a new high in nearly five years. By the end of December 30, 2022, it had closed at 22.83 yuan/share, up 9.18% on that day, with a total market value of 7.042 billion yuan.




3. BYD Shares: In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 235200, with a year-on-year growth of 150%; The annual cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.8635 million, with a year-on-year growth of 208.64%.




4. Subscription of new shares: A total of one new share was subscribed this week, which is Oufu Egg Industry of Beijing Stock Exchange.




5. Unlimited shares and restrictions lifted: This week, 58 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 3.705 billion shares and a market value of 97.201 billion yuan. Among them, Ningde Times ranked No. 1 in the list of lifting the ban with 43.18 billion yuan, while China Mobile and Guoxin Technology ranked No. 2 and No. 3 with 18.803 billion yuan and 5.492 billion yuan respectively.




Wealth Focus




1. Wall Street Journal: The American automobile industry is entering the largest factory building boom in years. The shift from traditional fuel vehicles to electric vehicles and the new federal subsidies aimed at boosting the American battery manufacturing industry have driven the soaring expenditure. As of November last year, the United States had committed about 33 billion dollars in investment in new auto plants, including funds for the construction of new assembly plants and battery manufacturing facilities.




2. Financial breakfast: hot spots come out all the time, tracking what you want to hear. What is the travel situation of the New Year's Day holiday this year? With the Spring Festival coming, how is the recovery of passenger transport? Will outbound tourism usher in a new starting point? What industry needs will be quickly repaired after the epidemic peak? Financial friends, please go to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # Travel popularity is rising




Industry observation




1. Lighthouse Professional Edition: As of 13:59 on January 2, the total box office of New Year's Day in 2023 (December 31 to January 2) exceeded 500 million yuan. In addition, as of 13:58, the box office of the film Avatar: The Way to Water exceeded 1.1 billion.




2. Xuhui District, Shanghai: Recently, the core tube of T2 tower of Xujiahui Center, a large-scale complex project located in the core area of Xujiahui Business District, successfully achieved the goal of capping. The tower T2, 370m high, is the tallest building under construction in Puxi, Shanghai. It is estimated that after completion and delivery in 2024, it will refresh the skyline of Puxi, replacing the 320 meter high White Magnolia Plaza on the North Bund, and become the 'highest building in Puxi'.




3. Surging news: From the perspective of the number of air tickets booked, after Sanya announced on December 5, 2022 that it would no longer implement classified management for foreign (returnees) from the province, the number of air tickets booked to Sanya on the platform of Qunar on December 6 reached the peak in the past five years. Since December 18, the number of air ticket bookings to Sanya has fluctuated again after a slow decline, and the number of bookings in the last week of December has always remained at a high level.




4. Shanghai Securities News: The first scientific and technological innovation support measure of Putuo District in 2023, 'Putuo Ten Articles of Scientific Innovation', was released. It is recognized that equity financing shares of no more than 100 million yuan will be granted through the master fund or industrial direct investment. A subsidy of up to 4 million yuan will be given to scientific and technological enterprises for their initial public offering and listing on major stock exchanges at home and abroad.




5. Surging news: Huangshan Scenic Area welcomed snow again, receiving 4685 tourists throughout the day, an increase of 164.09% year on year. As the first small and long holiday for epidemic prevention and control to enter a new stage, the number of tourists in Huangshan Scenic Area increased significantly. During the New Year's Day, it received 21900 tourists, a year-on-year increase of 68.36%.




6. Korean Cultural and Creative Content Revitalization Institute: In 2022, the sales of the domestic game market will increase by 11.2% year on year, to 20.9913 trillion won, a record high. The scale of Korean game industry once decreased by 0.3% in 2013, but the overall scale has expanded year by year in the past 10 years.




7. German Deputy Prime Minister Habak: I hope that the eastern part of Germany can advance the time of eliminating coal power generation to 2030. According to the current plan of Germany, the last batch of coal-fired power plants will be out of the grid by 2038 at the latest. Previously, North Rhine Westphalia in western Germany had decided to advance the plan to 2030. I hope the eastern part of Germany can follow suit.




Insight Economics




1. Foreign Minister Qin Gang: I have a telephone conversation with Secretary of State Brinken of the United States. Qin Gang said goodbye to Antony Blinken and recalled that he had several candid, in-depth and constructive meetings with Blinken during his tenure as ambassador to the United States. We look forward to continuing to maintain close working relations with Burundi and promoting the improvement and development of China US relations. The two sides also exchanged New Year greetings on the phone.




2. CCTV News Client: Recently, British media quoted economists as warning that due to high inflation and energy crisis, the euro area has fallen into recession, and GDP is expected to shrink in 2023.




Financial data




1. On Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 6.9514, up 0.2797% and 0.5095% weekly; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.9646, up 0.2106% and 0.2349% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 10 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 1.479 billion, a decrease of 2.98% month on month. Up to now, there are 6608 companies listed on the NEEQ.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market this week was 4.847 million tons, with a total turnover of 266 million yuan. The closing price on Friday was 55.00 yuan/ton, down 2.65% from last Friday.




4. US stocks: On Friday, the Dow closed 0.22% lower at 33147.25, down 0.17% for the week; The Nasdaq Composite Index closed 0.11% lower at 10466.48, down 0.3% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.25% lower at 3839.50, down 0.14% for the week.




5. Europe: On Friday, FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.81% lower at 7451.74, down 0.28% for the week; Germany DAX30 closed 1.05% lower at 13923.59, down 0.12% for the week; France CAC40 closed 1.52% lower at 6473.76, down 0.48% for the week.




6. Gold: On Friday, COMEX gold futures for February closed 0.1% higher at US $1826.20 per ounce, up 1.22% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed 2.37% higher at 80.26 USD/barrel, up 7.09% weekly; Brent crude oil futures closed 2.94% higher at US $85.91 per barrel, up 6.17% for the week.





► Securities Times: According to the report of Ctrip, compared with less than 40% of the users traveling across provinces in 2022, nearly 60% of the users choose to travel across provinces on New Year's Day holiday this year. The number of cross-border ticket bookings on New Year's Day increased by 145% year on year, while the popularity of cross-border travel during the Spring Festival was higher, with the number of bookings increasing by more than 260% year on year. According to Flying Pigs, orders for trans provincial and trans city tours account for nearly 80%, and young users account for more than 70% after '90' and '00', becoming the main force of trans provincial and trans city tours on New Year's Day. The big data of Mafengwo shows that the popularity of 'long-distance travel' has increased by 48% month on month, of which the popularity of 'medium and long distance travel' for 4-8 days has increased by 172% month on month, 41% of tourists choose to travel by car, and the travel of front-line and new front-line cities, where the infection peak is becoming increasingly gentle, is the first to usher in the peak of travel, becoming the main force of tourism consumer groups during the 2023 New Year's Day holiday, accounting for 73%.




► Guosen Securities: After the announcement of the 'New Ten Rules', the number of civil aviation passenger flights rose rapidly from about 3000 flights a day to more than 7000 flights a day, and then the country ushered in the 'first shock', with the number of flights falling back to about 5000 flights a day. As the epidemic situation in various parts of the country has gradually peaked, the impact of the 'first wave of impact' has gradually subsided, and the number of passenger flights on civil aviation domestic routes has bottomed out and rebounded. As the epidemic situation has reached its peak and fallen back faster than expected, the Spring Festival transportation is still worth looking forward to. The people who travel by air are the most active and active groups. The trend of travel recovery has been set. At present, China chooses to optimize the epidemic prevention policy at a time when the virus virulence is declining and the vaccination rate of residents is high. The impact on the travel sector at a stage may be far less than the initial stage of the policy transformation of overseas epidemic. The time span for travel sector to recover to close to or exceed the epidemic may be shorter.




► Guotai Jun'an: People with negative nucleic acid can come to China from January 8. After entering China, all nucleic acid testing and centralized isolation will be cancelled, and outbound tourism of Chinese citizens will be resumed in an orderly manner. Compared with the expected shorter time of entry quarantine in the early stage of the market, the speed and extent of international liberalization exceeded expectations. According to the World Tourism Barometer released by the World Tourism Organization, the number of international tourists in the world is expected to be 700 million from January to September 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 133%, returning to the level of 63% in the same period of 2019, and expected to return to the level of 65% throughout the year. At the same time, the passenger traffic volume of domestic international routes rebounded significantly. In October 2022, the total passenger traffic volume was 20.1 million, an increase of 86.7% year on year. The entry and exit restrictions are gradually loosened, which will give priority to the leading role of outbound tourism and airport duty-free business.




► CITIC Securities: The epidemic situation in key cities has peaked, and travel consumption is expected to gradually recover in 2023. According to the daily number of infected people predicted by the city data group, the first round of epidemic in Beijing, Chengdu and other cities is nearing the end, and the infection process in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities is estimated to be about 63%, 67% and 74%; The infection process in Hangzhou, Suzhou, Changsha and other cities is estimated to be about 67%, 71% and 82%; As the epidemic situation in the first tier and quasi first tier cities gradually peaks, the willingness of residents to travel will increase rapidly, and the travel economy will enter the repair fast lane. With reference to the recovery of overseas consumption and the restoration of passenger flow, the restoration of passenger flow will dominate the pace of consumption recovery for some time to come. It is suggested to focus on the service industries at the bottom of the current passenger flow level that will benefit from the recovery of travel demand, such as tourism, tax exemption, hotels, catering, etc.


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