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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-04-17

Date: 2023-04-17
Views: 1

Financial attention


Macroeconomics


1. CDC Dong Xiaoping: The study found that at the same time, the prevailing COVID-19 virus strains in China and other countries around the world may be different, and the dominant COVID-19 virus strains in China are similar to those in neighboring Japan and South Korea. At present and in the future, there will be many strains of Omicron virus prevailing in different countries and regions. Therefore, the prevention and control of COVID-19 is also likely to become a seasonal immunization strategy.


2. Beijing Daily: Recently, various subway lines in Beijing have fully relaxed the requirement for masks, and passengers do not need to wear masks during station security checks and waiting for trains. On April 14th, the total passenger volume of Beijing's rail transit network reached 12.0116 million, which was the second time after 636 days that it had recovered to the level of 12 million passengers.


3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: As of now, the spring sown grain area in China has exceeded 140 million acres, accounting for 15.1% of the intended area, with a progress rate of 0.6 percentage points faster than the previous year. From the perspective of crops, early rice seedling cultivation has been basically completed, with nearly 60% of sowing and planting; Over 50% of medium rice seedlings are raised; Potatoes have been sown for 30%, spring wheat for 40%, spring corn for 10%, and spring soybeans for 7.5%.


4. CCTV Finance: In recent years, China's canned goods have been selling well overseas, and the export volume has continued to rise. In 2022, China's canned goods export volume and export value increased by 12% and 22% year-on-year, respectively, reaching new highs in recent years. China has been the largest producer and exporter of canned goods for many years, accounting for about a quarter of the global production.


5. Vice Secretary General of the Canton Fair, Wen Zhongliang: The Canton Fair is an important window for China's opening up to the outside world and an important platform for China's foreign trade. Since its establishment for 67 years, the Canton Fair has accumulated export transactions of about 1.5 trillion US dollars, and has attracted about 10 million overseas buyers who have attended offline and online exhibitions. It has played a unique role in promoting the development of China's economic and trade relations with countries around the world.


Stock market inventory


1. CITIC Securities: The upcoming macro data for the first quarter is expected to exceed expectations as a whole, and the market's expectations for fundamentals are constantly being revised. It is expected that the April Politburo meeting will focus on targeted policy increases in locally weak areas of the economy. The economy is moving from a partial recovery to a comprehensive recovery, and there will be no deflation. The improvement of the external geopolitical environment and clear liquidity inflection points will enhance market risk appetite, The A-share market is currently in the second key long window of the year, and the importance of the current financial reporting season performance has significantly increased.


2. Haitong Securities: The digital economy may experience short-term fluctuations, but it remains the main theme for the whole year. Drawing on the experience of public funds' big position adjustment, it often takes a long time for public funds to add positions in new industries in history. In 2016, it took 1 year for public funds to shift their positions from TMT to Baijiu appliances, then continued to hold Baijiu appliances for 3 years, 2020-2021 from Baijiu to new energy for 1 year, and then continued to hold new energy for 2 years to now. With the accelerated development of the digital economy, public funds may continue to increase their allocation to the TMT sector.


3. CICC: The economic recovery cycle is still expected to support the market's strength. The TMT sector benefits from the rapid development of the industrial trend, but there is still uncertainty about the performance delivery. After the rapid rise in the early stage, it shows fluctuations. If the subsequent growth recovery in China is verified by more data validation, the industry's fundamental logic may again be more important than the theme logic, and the market style may also be more balanced.


4. Shanghai Stock Exchange: In recent years, most quantitative private equity firms have applied artificial intelligence technology to the process of quantitative investment. The emergence of ChatGPT has brought new inspiration to quantitative investment, and in the future, new technologies or algorithms will be continuously tried in new data analysis and processing fields. Multiple private equity firms, including Magic Square Quantification, are conducting further exploration and research in artificial intelligence.


5. Kweichow Moutai: According to preliminary accounting, in the first quarter, the revenue was about 39.16 billion yuan, up about 18% year on year; We achieved a net profit of approximately 20.52 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 19% year-on-year.


6. Shenzhen Xinxing: It is expected to have a net loss of 42 million to 52 million yuan in 2022, with a net profit of 28.7822 million yuan in the same period last year. The company has made a provision for inventory depreciation of 59.92 million yuan for lithium hexafluorophosphate and raw material lithium fluoride.


7. Shanghai Airport: In March, the number of aircraft taking off and landing at Pudong International Airport was 32215, a year-on-year increase of 100.44%; The passenger throughput was 3.6605 million, a year-on-year increase of 346.66%; The number of aircraft taking off and landing at Hongqiao International Airport was 22397, an increase of 173.17% year-on-year; The passenger throughput was 3.398 million, a year-on-year increase of 279.25%.


8. New share subscription: This week, there were a total of 3 new share subscriptions, including 1 on the ChiNext, 1 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, respectively, Sanbo Brain Science, Jinghe Integration, and Huayuan Shares.


9. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 64 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 7.466 billion shares lifted and a market value of 178.95 billion yuan lifted. Among them, AVIC Electronics ranked first on the lifting list with 44.85 billion yuan, while Shanghai Silicon Industry and CNOOC ranked second and third with 27.511 billion yuan and 20.687 billion yuan respectively.


Wealth Focus


1. Singapore Exchange Group: The SGX US dollar/offshore RMB futures set a new record in March, with a monthly turnover of 2.2 million contracts. Moreover, the daily average transaction volume in March also increased by 44% month on month to $9.5 billion. As one of the important offshore RMB centers in the world, this new high indicates the increasing importance of the RMB in the global foreign exchange market and the increasing demand for import and export risk management.


2. US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Due to the recent collapse of multiple banks, banks may further tighten their lending standards, which may eliminate the need for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.


3. Financial breakfast: Hot topics keep coming up, tracking what you want to hear. Last year, deposits from 13 banks skyrocketed to 150 trillion yuan! The growth rate has reached a historic high, and what are the characteristics of the incremental structure? What are the reasons for the surge in resident deposits? With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the rise of US dollar interest rates, what are the risks of US dollar deposits? Looking forward to the future, will the pattern of 'happy deposit and cautious loan' change? Financial friends, quickly move to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # Deconstruct retaliatory deposits


Industry Observation


1. Economic Daily: For rapidly developing new technologies and applications like AIGC, various risks are obvious, and incoming companies are particularly concerned about policy risks that may lead to investment losses after heavy investment. The solicitation of opinions on the AIGC management measures this time is the first step in promoting the healthy and sustainable development of the AIGC industry. No rules, no circle, AIGC has regulations, only then can there be a bright future.


2. Academician Ouyang Minggao of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: The reasonable price range for lithium carbonate is 100000 to 200000 yuan. Setting a reasonable range for the price of lithium carbonate requires not only calculating production costs, but also considering battery recycling and industrial chain safety issues. From the perspective of battery recycling, if the price of lithium carbonate is lower than 100000 yuan per ton, the battery recycling industry will be greatly affected.


3. Meinian Health: Develop and release the '2022 Health Examination Big Data Blue Book'. The report shows that the top five in terms of detection rate of abnormal physical examination results are: pulmonary nodules (54%), overweight and obesity (50%), thyroid nodules (47%), fatty liver (40%), and Helicobacter pylori infection (33%).


4. CCTV News: At 9:36 am on April 16th, China's first low inclination orbit precipitation measurement satellite, Fengyun III G satellite, was successfully launched at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. This is the third active precipitation measurement satellite launched internationally, following the joint launch of a dedicated precipitation measurement satellite by the United States and Japan. Since then, China has become the only country in the world to operate four low Earth orbit meteorological satellites at the same time: morning, afternoon and tilt.


5. PetroChina has achieved a breakthrough in the technology of long-distance transportation of hydrogen gas through existing natural gas pipelines. This provides technical support for China to achieve large-scale and low-cost long-distance hydrogen energy transportation in the future. At present, automobile transportation is still the mainstream method of long-distance hydrogen transportation in China, but this method has high costs and low efficiency, which is also one of the main reasons for the high cost of terminal hydrogen consumption and restricts the development of the industrial chain.


6. Huawei Yu Chengdong: Smart electric vehicles will replicate the transformation from feature phones to smartphones. Moving towards intelligent electric connected vehicles, there will be a watershed in 2025, forming a major reversal. The competition in the first half of intelligent electric vehicles is electrification, with hardware determining the experience. In the second half, it will be intelligence, and software determining the experience. The automotive industry is transitioning from manufacturing attributes to consumption attributes+technology attributes.


7. Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province: New energy passenger vehicles purchased in this city and registered locally will receive a one-time subsidy at the purchase price. Among them, for models priced below 200000 yuan, a subsidy of 2000 yuan per vehicle is provided; For models priced between 200000 and 300000 yuan, a subsidy of 5000 yuan per vehicle will be provided; For models priced at over 300000 yuan, a subsidy of 8000 yuan per vehicle will be provided.


8. CCTV News: In 2022, Qatar became the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas with an export volume of 80 million tons, with global liquefied natural gas exports reaching 399 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It is expected that global liquefied natural gas exports will continue to grow by 4.2% to 435 million tons in 2023.


9. The German Federation of Automobile Manufacturers: Due to increasing foreign demand and increased production of electric vehicles by automakers, it is expected that the number of electric passenger vehicles produced this year will increase by 50% to 1.33 million, of which 980000 will be pure electric vehicles.


Insight Economics


1. CCTV News: The member countries of the Group of Seven have reached an agreement on carbon dioxide emission reduction targets in the automotive industry, which means that each member country will achieve a 50% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions compared to 2000 by 2035 based on their own car ownership. We need to accelerate the pace of phasing out the use of fossil fuels to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve the goal of essentially zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.


2. The Polish government has decided to ban the import of grain and dozens of food products from Ukraine to protect Poland's agricultural sector. In addition, it will also raise the purchase price of grain, apply for funds from the European Union to maintain the current subsidies for fertilizers, provide fuel subsidies to farmers, etc., in order to quell the anger of farmers caused by the influx of large amounts of Ukrainian grain and agricultural products into Poland.


Financial data


1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 6.8495 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.3289% and 0.3767% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 6.8606, with no increase or decrease of%, and a weekly increase of 0.3370%.


2. New Third Board: Last week, one new listed company was added, with a transaction amount of 1.215 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.74% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6535. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 14.704 billion yuan.


3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 30300 tons, with a total trading volume of 1.6968 million yuan and a closing price of 56.00 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.08%.


4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed down 0.42% at 33886.47 points, up 1.20% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.35% to 12123.47 points, with a weekly increase of 0.29%; The S&P 500 closed 0.21% lower at 4137.64 points, up 0.79% for the week.


5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed up 0.36% at 7871.91 points, up 1.68% for the week; The German DAX30 closed up 0.50% at 15807.50, up 1.34% for the week; The French CAC40 closed 0.52% higher at 7519.61, up 2.66% for the week.


6. Gold: COMEX June gold futures closed 1.92% lower at $2015.8 per ounce, down 0.53% for the week.


7. Crude oil: WTI May crude oil futures closed up 0.44% at $82.52 per barrel, up 2.25% for the week; Brent June crude oil futures closed up 0.25% at $86.31 per barrel, up 2.53% for the week.


·Deconstructing retaliatory deposits·


Securities Times: As of the end of last year, 6 state-owned banks and 7 joint-stock banks that have already announced their 2022 annual reports have absorbed deposits from customers totaling over 150 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4%, setting a new high in previous years. The composition of this increment exhibits obvious characteristics of 'retailing' and 'periodization'. In terms of customer structure, the total amount of personal deposits absorbed by these 13 banks increased by 17.53% year-on-year, while the total amount of corporate deposits only increased by 7.41% year-on-year, which is less than half of the growth rate of personal deposits; In terms of term structure, the total personal fixed deposits of 13 banks increased by 22.56% year-on-year, while the total corporate fixed deposits increased by 14.62% year-on-year.


► Far East Credit: The primary reason for the change in residents' deposits is the synchronous slowdown of residents' income growth and economic growth in 2022, and the contraction of consumer spending due to factors such as weak income growth, weakened expectations, and lack of consumption scenarios; In addition, the increase in resident deposits is also affected by the allocation of resident assets. Housing assets have long been an important means of storing wealth for Chinese residents, but in recent years, the weak supply and demand in the real estate market has led to a decline in residents' confidence in housing investment. In summary, the surge in new deposits is the result of a combination of factors such as slowing income growth, shrinking consumer spending, deep adjustments in the real estate industry, and a decline in investment returns from other financial assets.


Shanghai Stock Exchange: The annualized interest rate for US dollar fixed deposits in most banks is generally above 4%. Among them, the annualized interest rate for one-year US dollar fixed deposits has reached over 5%, while some banks' US dollar deposit rates were still between 3% and 4% last year. Compared with the higher threshold of state-owned banks, some urban commercial banks have lower minimum deposit amounts and higher interest rates for US dollar fixed deposits, with the highest annualized interest rate even reaching 5.5%. Exchange rate fluctuations remain one of the main risks, and due to the uncertain economic growth prospects of the United States and the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, there is still a high level of uncertainty, which requires high attention to exchange rate fluctuations. At the same time, investors should pay attention to changes in the macroeconomic and financial operating situation and various risk events, and fully consider the resulting changes in exchange costs.


Southwest Securities: In March, M2 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the end of last month. In March, RMB deposits increased by 5.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 122 million yuan compared to the same period last year. Residents' deposits increased more than the same period last year, but the scale of the increase decreased. Non financial enterprise deposits decreased compared to the same period last year. M1 grew by 5.1% year on year, 0.7 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month, and the Price scissors gap between M1 and M2 widened by 0.5 percentage points compared with that at the end of last month. With the steady recovery of the economy and the restoration of market confidence, plus the base effect, M2's growth rate may gradually decline. In March, household loans increased by 1.24 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 609.4 billion yuan. This is not only related to the approaching Qingming Festival and other holidays, but also to the introduction of consumption promotion policies in many regions and the restoration of consumer confidence. The tendency of residents to invest and consume has increased.


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