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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-05-29

Date: 2023-05-29
Views: 4

Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. Dai Qionghai, Chairman of the Chinese Association of Artificial Intelligence, stated that the cost of algorithmic large models is becoming increasingly high, with GPT-3 training costs of approximately $5 million per session and a cumulative investment of over $3 billion in GPT series research. And the model is becoming increasingly large, increasing by 20000 times in 5 years. Tasks are becoming increasingly diverse, with one model open source processing multiple tasks. The GPT-3 training data is approximately 450000 years of text volume for People's Daily.




2. Reference news: The UK government is planning to require retailers to impose price limits on basic foods such as bread and milk to help cope with the rising cost of living. British Prime Minister Sunac's aides have already begun implementing an agreement similar to France, where major domestic retailers charge 'minimum fees' for some basic foods.




3. Interface News: It is reported that the United States and Japan have stated that they will deepen cooperation in the research and development of advanced chips and other technologies, including cooperation in quantum computing and discussions on artificial intelligence. In a joint statement, the two countries agreed to strengthen cooperation between their research and development centers in planning future technological cooperation.




4. Thailand: From January to May, over 1 million Chinese tourists entered Thailand, and it is expected that the number of Chinese tourists received throughout the year can reach 5 million, generating revenue of up to 446 billion Thai baht.




Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35% to 3212.50 points and fell 2.16% for the week. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.12% to 10909.65 points, down 1.64% for the week. The ChiNext Index fell 0.66% to 2229.27 points, down 2.16% for the week.




2. Last Thursday, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.93% to 18746.92, down 3.62% for the week. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.25% to 3691.16 points, down 3.42% for the week. The state-owned enterprise index fell 2.23% to 6333.63 points, with a weekly decline of 3.95%.




3. CICC: Overall, the rapid decline in the index has led to some indicators indicating a bottom leaning feature of the A-share market. Firstly, the forward P/E ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is at a historically low level, indicating that investors currently have a low risk appetite. Secondly, the interest rate of the 10-year treasury bond bond is close to the bottom of the stock market at the end of October last year. Although the current domestic economic environment and external disturbances may continue to affect asset price performance due to a decline in short-term investor risk appetite, China's domestic demand market has great potential and ample policy space. There is no need to be pessimistic about the current position of the A-share market, as medium-term market opportunities outweigh risks.




4. China Merchants Securities: Since mid to late April, A-shares have made significant adjustments due to the triple effects of economic data recovery, weaker than expected month on month momentum, a strengthening US dollar, and a temporary suspension of active fund inflows in popular sectors. Recently, all three reasons have ushered in a turning point, and the last turning point of the previously proposed 'N' type may appear. This round of market structure differentiation will be significant, and it is recommended to layout around the direction of highest performance growth rate and maximum improvement slope. From the perspective of major industry trends, opportunities will continue to emerge in areas such as AI+/digital economy/advanced manufacturing/autonomous control.




5. China Fund News: In the past three months, fund issuance has continued to cool down. Since May, the total issuance shares of newly established funds have reached 47.465 billion, making it the lowest since January this year. The average issuance shares of new funds are only 546 million, setting a new low since February 2022. Several industry insiders have stated that the structural bull market in the past two years has led to a large number of investors holding high earnings expectations but experiencing consecutive setbacks.




6. Yuan Zhihong, Chairman of Huaxia Wealth Management: From 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, the fundraising scale of ESG bank wealth management products exceeded 40 billion yuan. As of the end of 2022, the number of domestic bank wealth management institutions issuing ESG products has increased to 19. According to the average penetration rate of 33% of global ESG products in 2022, the market space for domestic bank wealth management ESG products may exceed 9 trillion yuan in the future.




7. Rongzheng Group: Releases the 'China Entrepreneur Value Report 2023'. The average maximum annual salary of executives in Chinese listed companies in 2022 was 1.7141 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.63%. The three executives with the highest annual salary are Li Bin, Vice President of Tongwei Co., Ltd. (86.53 million yuan), Li Qiang, Director, General Manager, and Core Technical Officer of Sany Heavy Energy (54.98 million yuan), and Li Ge, Chairman, Executive Director, and President of WuXi KangDe (41.97 million yuan). The average highest annual salary for executives on the Science and Technology Innovation Board in 2022 reached 2.2024 million yuan, which is the highest among all listed sectors.




8. Langma Information: The 'Langma · 39AI General Practitioner' released this time is an artificial intelligence product in the medical and health field based on artificial intelligence big model training, forming the artificial intelligence 'doctor brain'. This product can be widely applied in grassroots medical and health institutions, providing general practitioner artificial intelligence services, and providing users with full lifecycle medical and health management consulting services.




9. Aier Ophthalmology: It plans to repurchase shares for 300 million to 500 million yuan for the implementation of equity incentive plans or employee stock ownership plans. The repurchase price shall not exceed 44.16 yuan per share.




10. Child King: The company's KidsGPT intelligent consultant has officially launched during the Children's Day holiday, achieving its application in commercial scenarios. At present, the Digital Technology Application Center has established a dedicated research and development team for KidsGPT intelligent consultants, responsible for the research and development, training, and application of KidsGPT intelligent consultants.




11. Qinchuan Machine Tool: By undertaking the national 863 plan, we have conquered the core technology of robot joint reducers. At present, the robot joint reducer market in China is mainly dominated by foreign products, with Qinchuan machine tool robot joint reducers accounting for 20-25% of the domestic robot joint reducer market. In 2023, it is expected that the sales and revenue of robot joint reducers will increase by 30% compared to last year.




12. Hongbo Co., Ltd.: As of now, the Beijing AI Innovation and Empowerment Center project has been put into practical operation, and the related products and services are in the testing and promotion stage. At present, InBev Digital Technology has generated operating revenue and profits at the beginning of this month. Please refer to the company's subsequent announcements for specific operating conditions. This project may face risks such as new business expansion, talent, technology, and management.




13. New share subscription: This week, there were a total of 5 new share subscriptions, including 2 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and 3 on the Growth Enterprise Board, which are Shuangyuan Technology, Atlas, Tianjian Shares, Haojiang Intelligent, and Nanwang Technology.




14. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 81 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 2.696 billion shares lifted and a market value of 71.332 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Yuncong Technology ranked first on the lifting list with 14.909 billion yuan, while Dongpeng Beverage and Sanrenxing ranked second and third with 14.403 billion yuan and 6.827 billion yuan respectively.




Industry Observation




1. Guo Jianbo, Chinese Academy of Engineering: It is predicted that in 2060, the whole society will consume about 15.7 trillion kilowatt hours of electricity, and the installed power capacity will exceed 6.7 billion kilowatts. Among them, the installed capacity of wind and solar power will exceed 4 billion kilowatts, accounting for over 60% of the installed capacity and over 50% of the power generation, becoming the main source of electricity supply, while the proportion of fossil energy electricity is less than 7%.




2. Shanxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics: Since the beginning of this year, Shanxi Province has steadily promoted the increase of coalbed methane storage and production. In April, 870 million cubic meters of coalbed methane were extracted, accounting for approximately 82.1% of the country's coalbed methane production during the same period; From January to April, Shanxi has extracted a total of 3.48 billion cubic meters of coalbed methane, setting a new record for coalbed methane production during the same period in history.




3. Cailian News Agency: The recent price war among cloud manufacturers has intensified competition in the cloud computing market. The industry believes that this round of price war is a trend, essentially due to an oversupply of homogeneous computing power, but its actual impact on users and manufacturers' own operations is limited. The future path for internet cloud vendors may lie in areas such as AI, platform tools, application level products, and going global. Currently, there are still many challenges to overcome.




4. Chairman of the Russia Egypt Business Council: Russia may increase its grain exports to Egypt and other regions. Russia's grain exports will increase as its production continues to grow. However, whether it can meet the demand depends on Egypt's production, logistics, and maritime capabilities.




5. S&P: The energy transformation will lead to a significant increase in demand for mineral resources. It is estimated that the copper supply will double, but time factors pose a huge obstacle to energy transformation, and it is estimated that it will take 16-20 years to mine a large new mine. In fact, it is equivalent to the speed of the 1940s, so the development of sufficient mineral resources is a very prominent issue.




6. Group Intelligence Consulting: Global television demand remains weak, and there are no signs of recovery in terminal demand. However, driven by expectations of price increases, the demand for TV panel stocking remains stable. Under the active promotion of panel manufacturers' turnaround strategy, LCD TV panel prices maintained a significant increase in May; As the profitability of panel manufacturers recovers, it is expected that the price increase of LCD TV panels will narrow from June onwards.




7. Vice Speaker of the Zimbabwe Senate: Russia has shown interest in purchasing lithium from Zimbabwe, and the two sides may already be in negotiations. Zimbabwe has sufficient experience in detecting and processing lithium, so it is only looking for a sales market and is confident that Russia has shown interest in it. Discussions are currently underway on the possibility of Russia purchasing a certain amount of lithium from the country.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 7.0547 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.1966% and down 0.4442% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was at 7.0760, with no increase or decrease, with a weekly decline of 0.8595%.




2. New Third Board: Last week, four new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.278 billion yuan, an increase of 11.44% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6469. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 21.823 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 125000 tons, with a total trading volume of 7.092 million yuan and a closing price of 57.00 yuan/ton. There were no weekly fluctuations.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed up 1.00% at 33093.34 points, with a weekly decline of 1.00%; The Nasdaq rose 2.19% to 12975.69 points, up 2.51% for the week; The S&P 500 closed up 1.30% at 4205.45, up 0.32% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed up 0.74% at 7627.20 points, down 1.67% for the week; The German DAX30 closed up 1.20% at 15983.97 points, down 1.79% for the week; France's CAC40 closed 1.24% higher at 7319.18, down 2.31% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX June gold futures settled 0.03% higher at $1944.30 per ounce, a weekly decrease of 1.88%.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI July crude oil futures closed up 1.17% at $72.67 per barrel, up 1.36% for the week; Brent July crude oil futures closed up 0.90% at $76.95 per barrel, up 1.81% for the week.




·First year of mass production of composite fluid collectors·




Securities Times: According to the prediction of the High Industry Research Institute, by 2030, the penetration rate of the new multifunctional composite collector in the battery collector market will reach 40%, with shipments of approximately 14 billion to 18 billion square meters. The application fields will include various types of batteries such as energy storage, small power, power, and digital. Composite collector is a new technological path for battery materials. By plating a certain thickness of copper layer on both sides of the polymer material layer, a 'sandwich' shaped composite structure can be formed, which can replace some metal materials and significantly reduce the material cost and weight of the collector. The application of composite fluid collectors can not only continue to reduce the average cost of lithium-ion batteries, but also improve battery performance in terms of energy density, safety, and other aspects. It is one of the important technological paths in the future battery field.




► Huachuang Securities: 2023 is the first year of composite foil production. Driven by the demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage, the composite growth rates of composite aluminum foil and composite copper foil from 2022 to 2025 are 169% and 282%, respectively. The composite fluid collection coating equipment has strong non-standard properties and is in the process of upgrading and upgrading in the early stages of industry development. The efficiency improvement between generations of equipment is also very significant, and the demand for equipment is high. From a commercial perspective, although composite aluminum foil can reduce volume energy density, its cost reduction and weight reduction effects are significantly better than composite aluminum foil. Therefore, the latter has higher commercial value, and the penetration rate of composite copper foil may be faster in the future. Composite aluminum foil may be more suitable for some high-end 3C, drone and other application scenarios that pay more attention to lightness and low cost sensitivity.




Huatai Securities: The industrialization process of composite foil has been smoothly promoted, leading enterprises have achieved mass production, and the progress of the second tier echelon has accelerated. In terms of cost, the cost of specialized chemicals accounts for about 60%, with metal palladium catalysis accounting for about 30-50% of the total chemical cost. New technological paths have emerged, and palladium free catalysis technology is expected to further reduce costs in the future. The rolling welding process for composite foil has been added, which is technically challenging. Jiaocheng Ultrasonic Technology is leading and has been supplied to Ningde Times. It is expected that the market size of ultrasonic rolling welding equipment will reach 12.3 billion yuan in 2027, with the market size of key consumables and welding heads reaching 8.7 billion yuan. On the one hand, it is recommended to wait for the landing of orders from the first tier major customers and verify the industry logic; On the other hand, we attach importance to the industrialization progress of the second tier team and pay attention to the progress of equipment arrival at the factory as the core clue at this stage.




Chuancai Securities: With the gradual maturity of future equipment technology, the penetration rate of composite copper foil is expected to accelerate. If the penetration rate of composite copper foil increases to 20% by 2025, and the global lithium battery shipment volume reaches 2000GWh, the market space for PET composite copper foil is expected to reach 26.8 billion yuan by 2025. The current industry is in the stage of transitioning from the validation period to the production period, and is expected to truly complete the closed-loop of the industry chain with strong certainty of high growth. Three main lines are recommended: 1) manufacturers of vacuum deposition equipment and water electroplating equipment with first order at the initial stage of industrialization; 2) Manufacturers of integrated copper foil production, welding, and battery manufacturing with imminent mass production; 3) Manufacturers of polymer based membrane materials and target materials with integrated cost advantages.



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