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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-06-12

Date: 2023-06-12
Views: 3

Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. First Financial: In 2022, the number of marriages in China was 6.833 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, reaching a new low since 1986. Compared to the peak of 13.469 million couples in 2013, the number of marriages has decreased for 9 consecutive years, with a decrease of 49.3%.




2. China Weather Network: From June 11 to 12, the rain was still strong in parts of South China and other places, including parts of Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan and other places with heavy to rainstorm, and local areas with heavy rainstorm. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention of secondary disasters such as landslides, floods, and urban and rural waterlogging that may be caused by heavy rainfall. In addition, the high temperature in Xinjiang still does not 'reduce fever', with local temperatures reaching over 40 ℃. In the middle and later stages of this week, the 'main battlefield' of high-temperature weather will shift to the North China and Huanghuai regions.




3. Jeffrey Hinton, the father of deep learning: The arrival of super intelligence is closer than imagined. In this process, digital intelligence may seek more control, or even control human beings through 'deception', and human society may also face more problems.




4. CCTV News: With the approaching of the release date of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water to the sea, the Fishery industry in Busan, the second largest city in South Korea, pointed out that since the beginning of May, orders for aquatic products have decreased, both international and domestic orders have shown a downward trend, and consumer psychology has shrunk from the bottom. Once the nuclear contaminated water is discharged into the sea, it will shake the entire aquatic industry.





Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.55% at 3231.41 points, up 0.04% for the week; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed 0.66% higher at 10793.93 points, down 1.86% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed up 0.90% at 2143.01 points, down 4.04% for the week.




2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.47% at 19389.95, up 2.32% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 1.03% at 3934.22 points, up 2.87% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed 0.75% higher at 6589.32, up 2.50% for the week.




3. CITIC Securities: At present, the market's response to negative economic expectations is nearing the end, and the drag of price factors is approaching the inflection point. The economy is expected to shift from partial improvement to comprehensive recovery in the second half of the year; Policies will not be absent, but it will also be difficult to meet the radical expectations of the market; The characteristics of the stock market are difficult to change, the market divergence is still large, and the game is still fierce; The market is approaching the bottom of the fluctuation range in the second half of the year, and the clearing of positions is not complete. The volatility is still significant, and we adhere to performance driven policies while taking into account the main line.




4. CITIC Construction Investment: Recently, with positive signals such as improved policy expectations, bottoming out inventory cycles, stabilizing commodity prices, stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, and global market recovery, the A-share market, including the Hong Kong stock market, has been equipped with strategic counterattack conditions. In the coming year, corporate profits are expected to usher in a long upward cycle, coupled with the possibility of domestic reserve requirement and interest rate cuts, and overseas interest rates falling. Under the double click, the market is expected to challenge the new high since 2022, which is worthy of strategic optimism.




5. China Merchants Securities: Recently, there have been some positive changes both inside and outside the market. Internally, driven by factors such as stable growth, consumer policy support, and technological cycles, some industries have seen marginal improvements in their prosperity; Externally, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates in June and July has decreased, and the marginal impact of external liquidity environment on A-shares. From the perspective of major industry trends, opportunities will continue to emerge in areas such as AI+/digital economy/advanced manufacturing/autonomous control.




6. Securities Times: The enrollment expansion of securities firms that have made great strides may be over. As of recently, the number of employees in securities companies has decreased by as much as 4291 this year, mainly due to the decrease in brokers. Multiple top securities firms have slowed down or suspended their full line expansion route of 'raising high and striking high'. According to industry reports, as various securities firms continue to issue 2022 year-end bonuses, the industry may experience a peak of resignations.




7. Hailier: The bank account planned to be used for paying dividends has been temporarily frozen. It is preliminarily determined that the source of the customer's remittance funds needs to be verified, and the specific reason needs further verification. Due to certain uncertainty in the specific time of payment arrival, there is a risk that equity distribution cannot be distributed according to the original schedule.




8. Zhongtai Chemical: It was learned on June 10 that the Homeland security Department of the United States listed the company as an entity, which would not have a significant impact on the production and operation of the company. At present, a comprehensive evaluation is being conducted on the potential impact of this incident on the company, and we will actively communicate with relevant departments to do a good job in response.




9. Tuowei Information (2 consecutive boards): After verification, no corrections or supplements were found in the previously disclosed information. We have not found any recent public media reports that may or have had a significant impact on the trading price of the company's stock, which have not been publicly disclosed. The company's recent production and operation have been normal, and there have been no significant changes in the internal and external business environment.




10. ST Tianrun: As of June 9th, the closing price of the stock has been below 1 yuan for nineteen consecutive trading days. If the closing price falls below 1 yuan per share for 20 consecutive trading days, it will be terminated from listing and trading on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.




11. New share subscription: This week, a total of 10 new share subscriptions were made, including 5 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and 5 on the Growth Enterprise Board, including Guoke Military Industry, Ankaiwei, Huafeng Technology, Laisi Information, Shichuang Energy, Zhiou Technology, Guangkang Biochemical, Suolian Shares, Sinan Technology, and Meishuo Technology.




12. Sales restriction and lifting: This week, a total of 101 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 61.121 billion shares lifted and a market value of 387.986 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Postal Savings Bank ranked first in the list of lifting the ban with 307.722 billion yuan, Trina Solar and San'an Optoelectronics ranked second and third with 31.901 billion yuan and 9.286 billion yuan respectively.






Industry Observation




1. GGII: The sales of industrial robots in China in the first quarter were approximately 75000 units, a year-on-year increase of approximately 11.7%. Among them, domestic head robot companies have shown high growth compared to the same period.




2. CCTV News: At 11:00 am on June 11, the construction of the ± 800 kV High-voltage direct current project from Ningxia to Hunan was started. This project is the first UHV transmission channel in China that mainly transmits 'Sago Desert' new energy, of which new energy transmission will account for more than 50%.




3. Economic Daily: A news online that the payment method for electricity bills in Jinan will be changed from tiered electricity prices to time of use electricity prices has attracted attention. State Grid Shandong Electric Power stated that currently, the residential electricity prices of urban and rural residents in Shandong who directly read meters and charge to households still follow the current catalog sales electricity prices, with the first price of 0.5469 yuan/kWh, and the prices have not increased. Residents can choose to implement the time of use electricity price policy, which is known as 'staggered peak electricity consumption', but they need to apply to the power supply company in advance.




4. GGII: From 2020 to May 2023, the total number of investment projects in China's lithium battery industry exceeded 776, with 163 billion yuan investment projects accounting for over 1/5 of the total. Moreover, the proportion of billion yuan lithium battery investment projects to the total number of projects for the year has been increasing year by year, reaching 28% from January to May 2023, accounting for over 1/4.




5. Cailian News Agency: Recently, the cement market has been sluggish during the peak season. While companies are facing price declines, they are generally engaging in staggered production to alleviate supply pressure. According to the industry, there is currently a problem of insufficient demand in the cement market, and due to the accumulation of inventory in the early stage, the market price has decreased significantly. Off peak production is mainly arranged by industry associations to prevent Cut throat competition and avoid falling into price war.




6. Cat's Eye Professional Edition: As of 15:00 on June 11, the total box office (including pre-sales) of the 2023 summer season has exceeded 1 billion. Transformers: The Rise of Super Warriors, Spider Man: Crossing the Universe, Speed and Passion 10 ranked among the top three at the box office in summer.




7. Meta CEO Zuckerberg: Musk's significant layoffs on Twitter are a 'role model' for the industry. Musk's attempt to make Twitter more technical and reduce the company's management hierarchy is correct, and the changes he has made may benefit the entire industry.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1241, up 0.0477% and down 0.6940% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was at 7.1115, with no increase or decrease, with a weekly decline of 0.2976%.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 9 new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.359 billion yuan, an increase of 6.26% month on month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6469. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 24.461 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 104600 tons, with a total trading volume of 4.5628 million yuan and a closing price of 58.50 yuan/ton. There were no weekly fluctuations.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed 0.13% higher at 33876.78 points, up 0.34% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.11% higher at 4298.86 points, up 0.39% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 0.16% higher at 13259.14 points, up 0.14% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 closed down 0.25% at 15949.84 points, down 0.63% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.12% lower at 7213.14 points, down 0.79% for the week; The FTSE 100 in the UK closed down 0.49% at 7562.36 points, down 0.59% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX August gold futures closed 0.07% lower at $1977.20 per ounce, up 0.38% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI July crude oil futures closed 1.57% lower at $70.17 per barrel, down 2.19% for the week; Brent August crude oil futures closed 1.54% lower at $74.79 per barrel, down 1.76% for the week.




·The midfield battle of 618·




► China Securities News: Suning.com, JD, Tmall and other platforms recently announced a good start to the '618' activity in 2023, and the sales of home appliances, cosmetics, footwear, food and beverage and other categories showed strong growth. This year, investment from various platforms and support for small and medium-sized businesses have further increased. Although the current market sentiment recovery is weak, under the catalysis of low base combined with activities such as '618' in the second quarter, it is expected that consumer sentiment will warm up and the recovery will accelerate. Considering the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival holiday and long summer vacation, the combination of various positive factors is expected to further increase residents' consumption enthusiasm and boost the consumption industry chain.




The surging news: Last year, it was the 'toughest 618 in history'; This year, it is the 'Most Volume 618 in History'. Pinduoduo was the first to utter the slogan 'Every day is 618'. Subsequently, the CEO of Taobao Tmall Commercial Group stated that 'Taobao Tmall will make a historic and huge investment in user scale'. The CEO of JD Retail also exclaimed that 'this year's JD 618 will be the most heavily invested 618 in the entire industry. Focusing on low prices and increasing investment, what is causing the e-commerce promotion to become increasingly popular? Firstly, consumers are becoming increasingly rational and experiencing psychological fatigue towards major promotional events; Secondly, the dividend of traffic has disappeared, and model innovation is difficult to find. Shelf e-commerce and live streaming e-commerce can only increase their efforts in 'internal competition'.




► Caitong Securities: In addition to the participation of shelf ecommerces such as Tmall and JD in 618, Tiktok, Kwai, video number, Xiaohongshu and other content ecommerces have entered the market and actively made efforts. Overall, this year's investment in various platforms and support for small and medium-sized businesses have further increased, with diverse activities but simplified discount rules. From the pre-sale and early success data, the number of pre-sale products purchased by JD per capita has increased by over 30% year-on-year. The number of brands that exceeded 100 million yuan in the first 10 minutes of official sales has increased by 23% year-on-year, and JD's strong category of digital home appliances has performed outstandingly; Tmall 618's pre-sale of beauty and skincare, makeup, and household appliances performed brilliantly, with multiple influencers such as Li Jiaqi and Austin experiencing a pre-sale transaction volume of over 100 million yuan on the first day of live streaming. The current market sentiment recovery is weak, and it is expected that under the catalysis of activities such as low base and 618 in the second quarter, consumer sentiment will warm up and the recovery will accelerate.




Xinda Securities: The first phase of the 618 promotion has come to an end, and the leading domestic skincare products still show stable performance. According to the official account of Tmall Beauty, from 20:00 on May 31 to 23:59 on June 1, three Chinese skin care brands were listed among the top 20 brands of Tmall Beauty, and Pelaia/Winona/KFM ranked 4/9/13 respectively. This year, some top brands have shown excellent growth or a month on month increase trend during the first pre-sale period, and in the subsequent daily sales from June 4th to 5th, they have also performed as well as international brands. The rise of domestic products has been indirectly confirmed, and we hope to give the market more confidence.


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