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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-07-10

Date: 2023-07-10
Views: 3

Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. CCTV News: United States Secretary of the Treasury Yellen summarized his visit to China. The meetings with senior Chinese officials in recent days have been 'direct and productive', helping to stabilize bilateral relations. The United States does not seek to 'decouple' from the Chinese economy. The purpose of this visit to China is to establish and deepen the relationship with the new economic team of China, and to pave the way for future cooperation between the two countries in areas such as climate change and debt crisis.




2. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and China Meteorological Administration: On July 9, they jointly issued a risk warning for high temperature and heat damage of early rice. It is expected that in the next 10 days, there will be high temperatures above 35 ℃ in Jiangnan and South China, with 7-9 days of high temperatures. Some areas in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, and other regions can reach up to 38-40 ℃. Early rice in the milky stage of filling is at a higher risk of being forced to ripen by high temperature.




3. Interface news: The Total fertility rate rate of Japan and South Korea in 2022 will both hit a record low. Park Xiangjun, an economics professor at Waseda University, pointed out that the common ground of women in the two countries is that 'the employment rate has declined with marriage and children in their 30s as the watershed'. Considering that the proportion of people aged 70 and above in the total population in Japan is higher, Park Sang joon stated that 'the aging process in South Korea is fast, and Japan's experience and plans will serve as a reference.




4. Korea Tourism Organization: From January to May, more than 666000 Japanese tourists visited South Korea, accounting for 19.2% of the total number of foreigners visiting South Korea. Japanese tourists visiting South Korea surged by 5725.9% year on year, equivalent to 48.5% before the COVID-19 broke out in 2019. Based on a single month, Japanese tourists ranked first in the number of foreign tourists visiting South Korea last December, and have been at the top of the list for six consecutive months.




Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.28% at 3196.61 points, down 0.17% for the week; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed 0.73% lower at 10888.55 points, down 1.25% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed 1.05% lower at 2169.21 points, down 2.07% for the week.




2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed 0.9% lower at 18365.7, down 2.91% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 1.21% lower at 3901.21 points, down 0.26% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed down 1.11% at 6198.86 points, down 3.52% for the week.




3. CITIC Securities: At present, the market is still at the triple bottom of economy, policy and sentiment. It is expected that the trend of rapid slowdown in the slope of economic recovery will improve in the third quarter. Policies will still focus on industry and risk prevention. The stage of rapid depreciation of exchange rate is nearing the end, and the state of volume reduction game continues. The industry theme market still needs to wait. At present, it is recommended to actively participate in the China News market.




4. CICC: The market is currently entering an important data and policy observation window period, and will release economic and financial data for June and the second quarter in the next week, which may further strengthen market expectations for macroeconomic policy support. It is recommended to continue paying attention to policy orientation and implementation in the future, especially the possible Politburo meeting in late July. There is no need to be pessimistic about the medium-term prospects of the market, and maintain a neutral and positive view of the A-share market in the second half of the year.




5. Tianfeng Securities: It is estimated that there may still be downward pressure on cement demand throughout the year, but with new construction approaching the bottom of the cycle, it is expected that cement demand will gradually stabilize. Benefiting from the decrease in coal prices, the profitability of cement enterprises in the second quarter may still maintain relatively stable month on month. In the second half of the year, with the decrease in profit base, the profitability of cement enterprises is expected to turn positive year-on-year.




6. Securities firm China: As of July 7th, 160 fund managers under 92 public offering institutions have resigned this year, setting a new high for the same period since 2016. The phenomenon of high liquidity among public fund managers has existed for a long time. The soil of the fund industry has undergone significant changes, and 'private equity' is no longer the mainstream choice. Most of the well-known fund managers who have appeared in their new owners since the beginning of this year are of the 'public to public' type.




7. Southern Precision Industry: Recently, the stock price has fluctuated significantly, and the production and operation situation is normal without significant changes. The company, controlling shareholders, and actual controllers do not have any significant matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed, or are in the planning stage. After self inspection, there were no violations of fair information disclosure.




8. New share subscription: This week, a total of 10 new share subscriptions were made, including 6 on the ChiNext board, 3 on the Science and Technology Innovation board, and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Weike Precision, Gangtong Medical, Fosit, Suzhou Planning, Zhixin Precision, Boying Te Welding, Guangge Technology, Kangpeng Technology, Aerospace Materials Co., Ltd., and Jinbo Biotech.




9. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 93 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 9.347 billion shares actually lifted and a market value of 92.33 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Power Construction Corporation of China ranked first in the lifting list with RMB 12.065 billion, and China Eastern Airlines and China Science Star ranked second and third with RMB 11.458 billion and 8.653 billion respectively.




Wealth Focus




1. Liu Feng, Secretary General of the China Banking Association: Currently, bank wealth management has fully entered the era of net worth, and the degree of net worth transformation continues to improve. As of the end of 2022, there are 34700 surviving bank wealth management products, with a market size of 27.65 trillion yuan. From the perspective of product structure, long-term restricted wealth management products are gradually increasing, the proportion of fixed income open wealth management products is on the rise, and public offering wealth management products dominate the wealth management products.




2. Financial Times: It is reported that Sequoia China has established an office in Singapore and is developing plans to use it as an investment base in Southeast Asia. This will create competition between Sequoia China and Sequoia India/Southeast Asia. It is reported that some executives from Sequoia China have traveled to Singapore in the past 6 months. Sequoia India/Southeast Asia stated that the opportunities for cooperation with Sequoia China far outweigh competition.




Industry Observation




1. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said that the huge growth potential of the Chinese automobile market is still extremely obvious. In 2022, the transaction volume of second-hand cars in China reached 16.03 million units, with a transaction volume of 1.06 trillion yuan. The Chinese second-hand car market has become a true trillion level market. With the implementation of the policy of separate endorsement for second-hand cars, the second-hand car business of Car dealership group will flourish, and the development potential of second-hand cars in China is extremely huge.




2. The Health Commission and 14 other departments jointly released the 'Work Plan for Cracking down on the Illegal Application of Human Assisted Reproductive Technology'. In the second half of the year, a special activity will be launched in China to crack down on the illegal application of human assisted reproductive technology, standardize the application of human assisted reproductive technology, strictly manage patient identification, and prevent the use of false identity information to illegally apply human assisted reproductive technology.




3. Cailian News Agency: After experiencing a decline in prices in the first quarter, the electrolyte industry experienced a slight rebound in the second quarter, with electrolyte prices slightly rising month on month. In May and June, major electrolyte factories basically resumed operations, but the overall capacity utilization rate was low. Industry insiders said that although the recovery of the terminal power market and the Alternative fuel vehicle industry has been slow, the energy storage market has recovered well, the overall production scheduling has improved compared with the previous period, and the demand has turned better.




4. TCL Middle Ring: 150 for sizes 218.2, 210, and 182 μ The prices of M-thickness P-type silicon wafers are 4.07 yuan/piece, 3.77 yuan/piece, and 2.85 yuan/piece, respectively; 130 for sizes 210 and 182 μ The prices of N-type silicon wafers with a thickness of m are 3.84 yuan/piece and 2.9 yuan/piece, respectively. The maximum decrease is nearly 30%.




5. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: In June, the national average monthly retail price of eggs was 11.05 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.9% month on month and 1% year-on-year. From the weekly price trend, it is in a continuous decline throughout the month. Experts say that the national stock of laying hens increased in June. Starting from mid to early August, the demand for egg processing related to mooncakes will significantly increase. Overall, egg prices may fluctuate and rise in the future.




6. Clarkson: In the first half of the year, the number of orders for ships in the world was 678, and the number of orders received by Chinese shipping enterprises was 428, which exceeded half of the global total by multiple benchmarks, ranking first in the world. Among them, China received 71 ship orders in June, accounting for 80% of the global total.




7. Economic Observer Network: Entering the summer season, the tourism market in Beijing continues to be hot. From July 1st to July 7th, the pre booking volume of summer scenic spots in Beijing increased by 200% compared to the same period in 2019, and the booking volume of summer hotels increased by 36% compared to the same period last month. There has been a significant increase in child passengers among new passengers, and the demand for 'strolling children' has become a new driving force for consumption growth.




8. Brazilian National Institute of Space Research: In June, the number of fires in the Brazilian Amazon region and the Cerrado tropical savanna Ecotope reached 3075 and 4472 respectively, the highest since 2007.





Insight Economics




1. European Central Bank Regulatory Commission Sentno: Inflation is falling faster than rising; Europe now has the strongest labor market in history.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7:30 pm against the US dollar, at 7.2336, up 0.1780%, and up 0.3911% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.2054, up 0.0610%, with a weekly increase of 0.2823%.




2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.649 billion yuan, an increase of 18.74% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6460. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 29.403 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 1.5287 million tons, with a total trading volume of 77.9956 million yuan and a closing price of 58.17 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3.05%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed 0.55% lower at 33734.88 points, down 1.96% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 0.13% lower at 13660.72 points, down 0.92% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.29% lower at 4398.95 points, down 1.16% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.32% lower at 7256.94 points, down 3.65% for the week; The German DAX30 closed up 0.48% at 15603.40, down 3.37% for the week; France's CAC40 closed up 0.42% at 7111.88, down 3.89% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX August gold futures closed up 0.89% at $1932.5 per ounce, up 0.16% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI August crude oil futures closed up 2.87% at $73.86 per barrel, up 4.6% for the week; Brent September crude oil futures closed 2.55% higher at $78.47 per barrel, up 4.1% for the week.




·Fund fee reduction, here we go·




China Securities News: On July 8th, the long-awaited dust of lowering fees for public funds was settled. Several leading fund companies, including E Fund Management, GF Fund, China Universal and others, announced that since July 10, the management rate of some of their stock products would be lowered to below 1.2%, and the custody rate would be lowered to below 0.2%, and the relevant terms of the fund contract would be revised. In addition, the management fee and custody fee for newly registered products shall not exceed 1.2% and 0.2% respectively; The management rate and custody rate of other inventory products will strive to be reduced to below 1.2% and 0.2% respectively by the end of the year. This downgrade is an industry-wide downgrade, with the first batch of companies to be downgraded being the top 20 institutions in the active equity category. For small and medium-sized fund companies and stock products that have not yet cut their fees, they will strive to adjust before the end of this year.




► 21st Century Business Herald: On May 23, CMB Financial issued a kind of public fund product 'Recruitment Value Selection Equity Financial Product Plan', breaking the 'industry rule' of charging fixed management fees for public offerings. Since June, fund companies such as Bank of China, Chuangjin Hexin, Guolian An, Fuguo, Huitianfu, Baijia, Changxin, Taixin, Wanjia, and Zhongrong have successively announced the reduction of management fees, custody fees, and C-share sales service fees for their funds. Among the fund products that have lowered management fees since the beginning of this year, fixed income products account for the majority, while the proportion of active equity funds decreasing is relatively low. The average management rate of active equity funds in 2022 was around 1.42%, which shows little change compared to the average management rate of 1.41% in 2021 and 2020.




Financial website: The total size of public funds has reached a historic high. As of May 2023, the total assets of China's public funds amounted to 277738 billion yuan, approaching the 28 trillion mark. Among them, the scale of Stock fund is 2.6 trillion yuan, and the scale of hybrid funds is 4.6 trillion yuan. The industry stated that it was reasonable for public funds to charge a management fee of 1.5% more than a decade ago. But now the overall size of the fund has increased from several hundred billion to nearly 28 trillion, and there is definitely room for adjustment in management fees. The trend should be downward. Public offering fund is a Financial inclusion product. When it reaches a certain scale, it should use a certain mechanism to let investors enjoy the results, and should not allow the relatively controlled industry to earn more than reasonable returns.




► Huatai Securities: With the gradual implementation of the industry's rate reform policies, the future rate model will continue to be optimized, and the fees for public fund products will also be more transparent and understandable. The industry will further move into the stage of high-quality development and high-level competition. This fee reduction will be implemented first by top fund companies, with a net profit decrease of 150 to 400 million yuan per year for top institutions, which has a negative impact on net profit of about 10% to 15%; Small and medium-sized institutions have decreased by 0-10 billion yuan per year, with a negative impact of approximately 10% to 40%. The short-term profitability of the public fund industry will be impacted, and at the same time, it will be transmitted to a certain extent to the securities companies controlling and participating in the public fund. In the future, top fund companies with strong comprehensive strength, investment research, and innovation capabilities are expected to increase their market share and achieve volume based pricing.


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