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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-07-17

Date: 2023-07-17
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Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. CCTV News Client: On July 16th, China Eastern Airlines officially received the second domestically produced C919 large passenger aircraft in Shanghai. The arrival of a new C919 aircraft marks the acceleration of China Eastern Airlines' commercial operation of the C919 large passenger aircraft. The second C919 will partner with the first aircraft and first enter the China Eastern Airlines' 'Shanghai Hongqiao Chengdu Tianfu' air express line, gradually expanding more routes in the future.




2. United Nations: In recent years, 165 million new people worldwide have fallen below the poverty line. Due to the COVID-19 epidemic and the economic turbulence since 2020, the average daily living cost of the affected population has dropped below the threshold of US $3.65. There are 52 countries and regions in the world facing debt difficulties, and without help, they may never be able to get out of it.




3. WHO: From January 1, 2022 to July 11, 2023, a total of 88288 laboratory confirmed cases of monkeypox have been reported in 112 countries and regions worldwide. Since the last report on the epidemic was released on June 24th, there have been 316 new confirmed cases and 2 deaths. Although the Western Pacific region, including China, has seen a relatively high number of new cases in recent months, it is showing initial signs of slowing down.




4. The US Treasury Department: From October 2022 to June 2023, the US government's fiscal deficit was approximately $1.4 trillion, nearly three times the level of the same period last year. The fiscal deficit for the same period last year was $515.1 billion. In June alone, the fiscal deficit expanded by $227.7 billion in this fiscal year. The surge in deficits will inevitably exacerbate concerns among the American public about their own fiscal situation.




5. CCTV: The Hungarian Minister of Defense stated that neither Hungary nor NATO can be involved in the conflict in Ukraine. Hungary firmly advocates for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict, initiating peace negotiations, and achieving peace as soon as possible. Even during the conflict, Hungary is developing its own military power, and military spending will reach 2% of the country's GDP in 2023.







Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 0.04% higher at 3237.70 points, up 1.29% for the week; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed 0.14% lower at 11080.32 points, up 1.76% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed 0.6% lower at 2224.10 points, up 2.53% for the week.




2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.33% to 19413.78, up 5.71% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 0.20% at 4228.71 points, up 8.39% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 0.23% at 6558.88 points, up 5.81% for the week.




3. CITIC Securities: At present, the market is still at the triple bottom of economy, policy and sentiment, but the signals of expected stabilization and emotional recovery are becoming clearer. It is expected that a turnaround will occur in August, and the market is in the transition period from the main line of China News to the industrial theme. It is suggested to strengthen the allocation of industrial themes with policy catalysis or performance inflection points in the third quarter. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to gradually shift the focus to the core industry theme of the second half of the market, and adhere to the advantageous varieties in the three major security fields of technology, energy resources, and national defense.




4. CICC: The current A-share market valuation is at a historically low level, and asset prices have been included in more cautious expectations. Some positive factors affecting the market are accumulating. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in the internal and external environment on the A-share market. Currently, market opportunities outweigh risks, so there is no need to be too cautious about the performance of the A-share market in the future. It is recommended to choose the timing layout based on the marginal changes expected by policies. Short term growth is the main focus, while medium term consumption is the focus.




5. China Fund News: With the formation of El Ni ñ o conditions in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, the El Ni ñ o event is expected to further strengthen. The recent continuous high temperature has indeed boosted the price jump of agricultural products such as sugar, cocoa, soybean oil and soybean meal, as well as the growth of electricity demand. Industry insiders believe that although there have been many investment opportunities in the agriculture and power sectors due to the impact of the El Ni ñ o event, investors should also remain rational.




6. Securities firm China: Since the beginning of this year, securities firm asset management has hired a total of 41 new fund managers, mainly from internal training and public funds. As of July 11, the institutions with a large number of new fund managers were Guotai Junan Asset Management, Dongfang Hong Asset Management, Huatai Securities Asset Management and GF Securities Asset Management, with 6, 5, 4 and 3 respectively.




7. Securities Times: Previously, many floating management rate products linked to the holding period, such as China Europe Times Win win, ICBC Credit Suisse Vision Win win, Bosch Huize, Harvest Innovation Power, etc., have been officially accepted, and are now in the first feedback stage. Afterwards, some fund companies actively took action. Recently, a medium-sized fund company in Shanghai reported a three-year regular open hybrid fund called 'New Opportunities Sharing'.




8. China Fund News: As of July 14th, the issuance scale and trading volume of the convertible bond market have both decreased year-on-year. During the year, the total issuance scale of 68 convertible bonds reached 77.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.42%. The transaction volume of the convertible bond market this year is 7.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1%. Industry insiders have stated that as both debt and equity assets, convertible bonds still have significant allocation value at the current time point.




9. Canadian Solar: It is planned to invest in the construction of the photovoltaic new energy full industry chain project in Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia. The total investment in the first phase of the project is about 18 billion yuan. The overall plan of the project is divided into three phases.




10. German Nano: It is expected to lose 1.04 billion yuan to 1.17 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a profit of 1.28 billion yuan in the same period last year. Affected by the significant decline in the price of the main raw material lithium salt and the slowdown in downstream demand, the sales price of the product decreases with the decrease in the price of lithium salt. Starting from May, as downstream demand gradually recovers, the company's capacity utilization rate begins to rebound.




11. Zhongji Xuchuang: The company's 800G Optical module has been gradually launched in the first half of 2023, but more customer demand and order delivery are expected in the second half of 2023 and 2024. 800G has high technical and market barriers. The company is confident in maintaining its existing market share and product competitiveness.




12. New share subscription: This week, a total of 7 new share subscriptions were made, including 3 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 1 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board, and 3 on the Growth Enterprise Board, including Weimeisi, Shengbang Security, Yifei Laser, Zhejiang Rongtai, Junyi Digital, Shunyu Shares, and Fu Erjia.




13. Restriction and lifting of restrictions: This week, a total of 101 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 4.233 billion shares lifted and a market value of 93.498 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Cambrian ranked first in the lifting list with 32.679 billion yuan, Air China and Tongqing Tower ranked second and third with 8.969 billion yuan and 6.158 billion yuan respectively.




Wealth Focus




1. Beijing Daily: Medical and aesthetic institutions are not allowed to create 'facial anxiety', nor can they charge more than 5 times the cost of a single treatment at a time. If medical and aesthetic services are not implemented within 7 days of payment, consumers have the right to request a one-time full refund. Recently, the Beijing Municipal Health Commission issued demonstration texts. The demonstration text released this time will be mainly used by for-profit beauty medical institutions to sign service contracts with consumers receiving Aesthetic medicine services.




2. Türkiye: On July 16, Fuel tax was raised by nearly 200%, which will increase inflation pressure and further tighten household budget. A new special consumption tax has been announced on different fuels. The Ministry of Finance stated in a statement that this tax increase will help meet the funding needs caused by the February earthquake and maintain strong cash reserves.




Industry Observation




1. CCTV Finance: Currently entering the hottest 'dog days' of the year, with rising temperatures and exposure to the sun. While doing a good job of personal sunscreen, car owners are also providing sunscreen and cooling for their cars. From May to June, online group buying sales related to car stickers and invisible car clothing increased by over 170% compared to the beginning of the year. In addition, since June, the sales of car sunscreen products have increased by 272% compared to the same period last year.




2. Cat's Eye Professional Edition: At 9:50 on July 16th, the total box office (including pre-sales) of the 2023 summer season exceeded 8.5 billion yuan. 'Disappeared She', 'In the Octagonal Cage' and 'Transformers: The Rise of Super Warriors' ranked among the top three at the box office in summer.




3. China News Agency: Tesla's official website in China has officially launched the sale of Cyberquad toy cars. Cyberquad toy cars are still in a 'out of stock' state. But on second-hand platforms, the price of Cyberquad toy cars has seen significant price reductions. Previously, when Cyberquad was listed overseas, it was hyped up to 100000 yuan, which is about 10 times the original price.




4. CCTV Finance: On July 14th, the Guinness World Records official website announced that Cristiano Ronaldo became the highest earning athlete in 2023, with Messi ($130 million) ranking second and Mbappe ($120 million) ranking third. As of May 1st, Ronaldo's estimated revenue for the 12 months ended at $136 million, including $46 million in on-site revenue and $90 million in off-site revenue.




5. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the growth rate of Chinese residents' debt has slowed down and their savings have increased significantly, indicating that the Chinese car market has great potential to promote consumption. For the trend of the Chinese car market in the second half of the year, it is expected to continue to maintain a good trend in the first half of the year. The development speed of the Chinese car market is not as fast as in earlier years, but overall it is still stable, and the car ownership will slightly increase. It is an inevitable trend for the Chinese car market to reach over 40 million vehicles.




6. The Federal Association of Medium sized Enterprises in Germany: Over a quarter (26%) of medium-sized enterprises in Germany are considering giving up their businesses; More than one fifth of medium-sized enterprises (22%) even consider transferring their business overseas. Specifically, over a quarter of surveyed companies believe that high taxes are a major obstacle. When companies that are deeply rooted in the local market consider giving up or transferring overseas, the situation is already very severe and a solution is urgently needed.




7. United Nations: The amount of food obtained by poor countries under the framework of the Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Export Agreement is much lower than that of developed countries. EU countries are the main beneficiaries of Ukrainian agricultural exports, while the world's poorest countries only receive 2.3% of Ukraine's agricultural supply.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1325, up 0.3869% and 1.3976% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1318, up 0.2922%, with a weekly increase of 1.0215%.




2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.302 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.07% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6458. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 30.705 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota listing agreement was 694000 tons, with a total trading volume of 40562300 yuan and a closing price of 60.00 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3.15%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed up 0.33% at 34509.03 points, up 2.29% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 14113.70 points, with a weekly increase of 3.32%; The S&P 500 closed down 0.10% at 4505.42, up 2.4% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed down 0.08% at 7434.57, up 2.45% for the week; The German DAX30 closed down 0.22% at 16105.07, up 3.22% for the week; The French CAC40 closed 0.06% higher at 7374.54, up 3.69% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX August gold futures settled 0.03% higher at $1964.4 per ounce, up 1.65% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI August crude oil futures closed 1.91% lower at $75.42 per barrel, up 2.11% for the week; Brent September crude oil futures closed 1.83% lower at $79.87 per barrel, up 1.78% for the week.




·In the era of green hydrogen, FCV starts·




► Cailian News Agency: In China, the China Automobile Association released data on the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in June. The production and sales of FCVs in June were 670/955 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%/109.9%, and from January to June were 2495/2410 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%/73.5%. For the first time in history, the monthly production and sales of FCVs were close to a thousand units. Previously, Hydrogen fuel cell emission reduction policy documents were released in Beijing, Guangdong and Jilin, and the industrial development was further accelerated. Abroad, Germany's Bosch announced that it has successfully mass-produced hydrogen power modules and supplied them to the American hydrogen electric vehicle manufacturer NikoIa. Toyota stated that it will focus on selling hydrogen powered trucks and cars in Europe and China as part of its efforts to sell 200000 hydrogen powered vehicles by 2030, attracting market attention.




China Energy News: There are many companies engaged in the fuel cell vehicle industry, but the scale and quality need to be improved. Overall, the localization level of fuel cell core technology has been significantly improved, but there is still a gap between it and the international advanced level. The industrialization capacity is relatively weak, and there are also some difficulties in using hydrogen. The construction speed of hydrogen energy infrastructure is to some extent a barrier to expanding the demonstration scale and entering commercialization of fuel cell vehicles. In addition, hydrogen storage and transportation are still weak links in the entire hydrogen energy technology chain. Although there are various technological innovations, truly disruptive technologies have not yet emerged. There is still a gap in the level of stack compared to foreign countries, and the technology of membrane electrode basic materials is a bottleneck for further development.




► Guolian Securities: According to the Medium and Long Term Development Plan for the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035), the number of Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will reach 50000 by 2025, corresponding to the sales volume of about 20000 by 2025. Driven by scale and localization, the cost of fuel cells is expected to rapidly decrease. It is estimated that by 2030, the life cycle cost of domestic Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be at the same level as that of diesel heavy trucks. Driven by economic advantages, Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will continue to be in high volume, and the production and sales scale will reach at least 100000 vehicles by 2030.




► Guojin Securities: On the upstream side, with policy support and the implementation of related electrolytic hydrogen production projects, with the breakthrough of electrolytic cell technology and the limitations of by-product hydrogen regions and resources, the penetration rate of electrolytic hydrogen will gradually increase. We can pay attention to electrolytic cell enterprises; In the middle reaches, under the continuous increase of local policy planning, the construction of Hydrogen station has been accelerated to ensure the capacity and operation of FCV, and attention can be paid to the construction of Hydrogen station and equipment enterprises. At the same time, the growth of orders is driving the expansion of the core component field. Downstream, FCV is experiencing a surge in production, benefiting fuel cell systems and core component companies.


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