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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-08-07

Date: 2023-08-07
Views: 5

Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. Newsweek: At present, the infection level of COVID-19 in Shanghai is consistent with that of the whole country. Since July, the proportion of patients with severe COVID-19 infection admitted in the infection department of Huashan Hospital has been about 5%, which is mainly concentrated in the first positive, elderly, poor control of basic diseases and people who have not received COVID-19 vaccine. According to the immune cycle, the next wave of COVID-19 epidemic may occur in November this autumn.




2. Economic Observer Network: Since May, global funds have begun to return to China's bond market. As of June, overseas institutions held 2.94 trillion yuan of Chinese bonds, an increase of 36.456 billion yuan month on month, the second consecutive month of overweight, and the scale of overweight is also expanding. And this is the first time in nearly a year and a half that overseas institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese bonds.




3. Statistics Korea of the Republic of Korea: As of November last year, there were 9.046 million elderly people over 65 years old in the Republic of Korea, including 1.973 million people in one household, accounting for 21.8%, all of which reached a record high.




4. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: Further interest rate hikes may be needed to put inflation on the path to the FOMC 2% target, supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates last month. Although the data released later showed a slowdown in price growth, we hope to see more evidence of sustained decline in inflation.




Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.23% at 3288.08 points, up 0.37% for the week; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 0.67% at 11238.06 points, up 1.24% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed up 0.95% at 2263.37 points, up 1.97% for the week.




2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed 0.61% higher at 19539.46, down 1.89% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 2.06% higher at 4497.31, up 0.69% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed 1.21% higher at 6732.58, down 1.11% for the week.




3. Securities Times. Institutional insiders believe that this is mainly because the holders of securities ETFs are mainly short-term investors who prefer band operations.




4. China Securities News: Since the first batch of public offering institutions reduced fees on July 10th, the number of public offering institutions participating in the reduction has exceeded 60. At the same time, several bond funds have also been simultaneously reducing fees since August, including a 40% discount on management fees and a 50% discount on custody fees. Industry insiders have stated that in recent years, the decline in management fees for bond bases has been relatively significant, but the scale of bond bases and revenue from management fees have continued to increase.




5. Shanghai Securities News: As of August 5, a total of 12 10 billion level private placements had appeared in the list of top ten shareholders of Shares outstanding of listed companies. Head private equity is actively exploring structural opportunities in areas such as consumption, infrastructure, and semiconductors. In the view of multiple industry insiders, the current signal of economic stabilization is relatively clear, and the market has already included sufficient pessimistic expectations. The structural opportunities in the subsequent pro cyclical and growth sectors are worth paying attention to.




6. China Fund News: Since the Science and Technology Innovation Board implemented the recommendation institution following investment system, various securities companies have started to set up Alternative investment subsidiaries to participate in the following investment of science and technology innovation board projects. So far, at least 82 securities companies in the securities industry have been approved to set up Alternative investment subsidiaries. The dual wheel driven business model of 'investment banking+investment' is increasingly being valued.




7. Great Wall Securities: In the first half of the year, it achieved a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; The net profit was 889 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.04%. The performance of self operated investment and other businesses has significantly improved year-on-year, driving a significant increase in the company's main profit indicators.




8. Dong'e ass hide glue: In the first half of the year, the operating revenue reached 2.167 billion yuan, up 18.69% year on year; The net profit was 531 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.29%. The company plans to donate RMB 4.7 million to the China Women's Development Foundation and the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.




9. Dongpeng Beverage: In the first half of the year, it achieved a revenue of 5.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.24%; The net profit was 1.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.84%.




10. New share subscription: This week, a total of 7 new share subscriptions were made, including 2 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 3 on the Growth Enterprise Board, and 2 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Xinyu Ren, Kaiwei Te, Guaibao Pet, Xiechang Technology, Hengda New Materials, Guozi Software, and Boxun Biology.




11. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 68 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 3.11 billion shares lifted and a market value of 60166 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Jiangbolong ranked first on the lifting ban list with 6.888 billion yuan, while Gaoce Shares and Hongye Futures ranked second and third with 3.935 billion yuan and 3.712 billion yuan, respectively.




Wealth Focus




1. China Fund News: On August 3-6, 2018, the first batch of 14 pension target funds was approved, marking a new journey for domestic public funds to serve the pension market. As of now, on the occasion of the 5th anniversary of the approval of the first batch of pension target funds, the annualized return of the first batch of products has exceeded 6% since its establishment, and several products have achieved good long-term returns. During the same period, the scale has also shown significant growth.




2. The Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission: As of the end of 2022, Hong Kong's assets under management amounted to HKD 30.5 trillion and recorded a net inflow of HKD 88 billion. The assets managed in Hong Kong account for 57% of the assets managed in the asset management business, of which 50% are invested in stocks.




Industry Observation




1. Luo Wen, Director of the General Administration of Market Supervision, led a team to Zhuozhou City in Hebei Province and Mentougou District in Beijing to investigate and guide the price supervision and special equipment safety supervision in rainstorm and flood disaster areas. Focus on the daily necessities, medicine, and disinfection supplies that are closely monitored by the people in the disaster area, strengthen price monitoring, early warning, and market inspections, and severely crack down on illegal and irregular behaviors. We must firmly adhere to the safety bottom line in the field of market regulation and actively coordinate and solve practical difficulties and problems.




2. CCTV News: On August 6, the largest Pumped-storage hydroelectricity in western China, Qinghai Warang Pumped-storage hydroelectricity, officially started construction. Warang Pumped-storage hydroelectricity is located in Guinan County, Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, close to the Gobi New Energy Base in Hainan, with a total investment of 15.94 billion yuan. The power station utilizes the Laxiwa Reservoir on the main stream of the Yellow River as the lower reservoir and is connected to the Qinghai power grid through a 750 kV transmission line.




3. China Federation of Commerce: In August, the prosperity index of China's retail industry was 50.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, maintaining an expansion range for 8 consecutive months. From the perspective of industry classification, the commodity management index was 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; The leasing and operation index was 53.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous month; The e-commerce operation index was 49.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month.




4. CCTV Finance: The cocoa futures price on the New York Intercontinental Exchange recently reached a new high of $3569 per ton since March 2011. Cocoa prices are soaring, and chocolate prices may rise. Analysts warn that rising costs and frequent extreme weather are threatening the production of major cocoa producing countries such as C ô te d'Ivoire and Ghana.




5. Texas, USA: On August 6th, electricity prices skyrocketed by over 800%, with nighttime electricity prices exceeding $2500/MWh, and the peak electricity price on Saturday was only about $275. The hot weather caused cooling demand to approach historical highs while also suppressing the supply capacity of the local power grid.




6. India's largest automaker, Maruti Suzuki, aims to launch new models and increase exports, doubling annual production to nearly 4 million vehicles by 2031, with plans to double overseas sales to 800000 vehicles. By the fiscal year 2030 to 2031, Maruti Suzuki is expected to launch six electric vehicles, which are expected to account for 15% to 20% of its total sales by then.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1802 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.1294% and down 0.2191% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1418, up 0.1077%, and down 0.1121% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 7 new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.221 billion yuan, an increase of 1.89% month on month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6458. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 34.567 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 554500 tons, with a total trading volume of 35.3141 million yuan and a closing price of 66.00 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8.11%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed down 0.43% at 35065.62 points, down 1.11% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 0.36% lower at 13909.24 points, down 2.85% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.53% lower at 4478.03, down 2.27% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed up 0.47% at 7564.37 points, down 1.69% for the week; The German DAX30 closed up 0.37% at 15951.86 points, down 3.14% for the week; France's CAC40 closed 0.75% higher at 7315.07, down 2.16% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX September gold futures closed up 0.36% at $1946.9 per ounce, up 0.91% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI September crude oil futures closed up 1.56% at $82.82 per barrel, up 3.41% for the week.




·The 'Warm Wind' of Real Estate Policy Blows Frequently·




Guotai Jun'an: At the end of July, the Central Political Bureau meeting issued a positive signal, proposing to adjust the supply and demand mismatch in the real estate industry in a timely manner. Subsequently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development issued a statement supporting the real estate market, with specific measures including: 1) further implementing the reduction of down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates; 2) Improve the reduction of taxes and fees for the purchase of sexual housing; And 3) 'Not accepting loans for housing'. From late July to early August, first tier cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai have all stated that they will relax their current real estate policies to support demand for rigid and improved housing. Zhengzhou City has launched the 'first shot' of regulatory measures such as 'recognizing houses but not loans' and 'suspending sales restrictions'. Considering that the real estate sector is always driven from top to bottom, in the short term, with intensive policy support, optimism may exceed market expectations.




Guojin Securities: In the first half of 2023, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide decreased year-on-year. From a phased perspective, the market has gradually become active after the Spring Festival, with sales starting to rise in March. The sales area ranks third in the past five years and sales volume ranks second in the past five years; Entering the second quarter, the market began to decline month by month, with sales area falling to the lowest level in nearly five years in May and sales volume falling to the lowest level in nearly five years in June. From the perspective of urban energy levels, the monthly sales area in first tier cities showed the smallest decrease compared to the previous month, while the decline in third and fourth tier cities was even greater; The performance of second-hand houses is differentiated, with a cumulative positive year-on-year trend but continuous pressure on the previous month. The performance of the top 100 real estate companies is differentiated, with private enterprises being liquidated and central state-owned enterprises being replaced. The top strong ones become stronger. From a valuation perspective, the PB valuation of the China Securities All Index Real Estate Index is currently in the bottom range after 2014.




► Shenwan Hongyuan: On August 3, the notice of Zhengzhou mentioned that the housing expropriation involved in the reconstruction of villages in the city and urban renewal will be implemented mainly through the purchase of commercial housing, issuance of housing tickets for resettlement and other monetization methods. The resettlement houses that have not yet started construction are mainly monetized resettlement in principle. In addition, on June 1, Qingdao encouraged all districts (cities) to collect monetary compensation for the reconstruction of Shanty town and villages in cities, and piloted the room ticket system; On July 28, Hefei said to vigorously promote diversified resettlement methods such as monetization resettlement and room ticket resettlement; On August 1st, Lanxi City, Zhejiang Province, issued a policy proposing to monetize 20% of the maximum prize money for resettlement households to buy new houses. Recently, there have been many mentions of monetization resettlement, and it is expected that this round of urban village renovation will combine physical resettlement and monetization resettlement, and monetization resettlement may be an important direction.




Debang Securities: Since 2022, with increasing market pressure, some cities have also relaxed this policy. Currently, about 16 cities still implement the policy of 'housing and loan subscription'. According to calculations, if these cities are all adjusted to 'buy houses but not loans', the down payment ratio for 'sell one buy one' will be reduced by 14%, and the mortgage interest rate will be reduced by 0.83%, which will further release the demand for improved replacement. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, the release of potential support policies related to improving demand is expected to activate 54% of the large population in the demand structure, further amplifying and activating the replacement chain of the entire system. According to the survey data of Zhongzhi, in 2022, the proportion of people who have already purchased houses in demand for improvement accounted for 38%, while the proportion of those who just need it was only 23%. Based on surveys conducted by Shell and Zhongzhi, the proportion of demand for improvement in purchasing demand may be 40-50%, and the release of this demand has a significant impact on the overall purchasing demand.




► Dongxing Securities: The central government has made significant changes in the tone of the property market, and the policy space of hot first and second tier cities has been opened. At present, there are still many first and second tier cities with down payment ratios of 30% or even higher for their first home, and some cities still have interest rates on their first home loans that are higher than the LPR for more than 5 years. Core first and second tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Changsha, Hefei, Chengdu, Haikou, Xiamen, Fuzhou, Sanya, and Chongqing still implement the policy of 'housing and loan subscription' for second homes. Recently, first tier cities have expressed their support, indicating that various regions are actively implementing the relevant policies and spirits of the central government and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development. The subsequent support policies for the real estate market in core first and second tier cities are expected to accelerate implementation. High quality real estate enterprises that focus on layout in first and second tier cities will benefit from the implementation of demand side policies in first and second tier cities and the accelerated promotion of urban village transformation.


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