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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-08-14

Date: 2023-08-14
Views: 3

Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. State Council: Ensure that foreign-invested enterprises participate in government procurement activities in accordance with the law. Clarify the specific standards for 'production within China'. Research and innovate collaborative procurement methods, and support foreign-invested enterprises in developing globally leading products in China through measures such as first purchase ordering. Carry out special inspections to ensure the fair participation of business entities in government procurement activities, and investigate and punish illegal and irregular behaviors such as differential treatment of foreign-invested enterprises in accordance with the law.




2. The Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Chen Maobo, stated that there has been a change in the consumption habits of mainland tourists, with the proportion of shopping as the main purpose of coming to Hong Kong decreasing compared to before the epidemic. In the short term, the Hong Kong government needs to work together with the industry to revitalize and prosper the night market in Hong Kong, better consolidate various economic links in the recovery, and maintain the momentum of the recovery. In the medium to long term, we need to make the development of Chuangke one of the important engines for promoting high-quality development of Hong Kong's economy.




3. Yonhap: The budget expenditure of the South Korean government for the 2024 fiscal year may be set between 658 trillion and 663 trillion won, a year-on-year increase of 3%, lower than the 5.1% increase in the 2023 budget, and a decrease of approximately 10 trillion won from the previously planned 670 trillion won. The South Korean Ministry of Finance stated that the reduction in budget expenditure growth rate is due to a decrease in taxes.




4. US Department of Agriculture: As a major food producing region, the widespread drought in the Midwest region of the United States has raised widespread concerns. Grain crops such as corn and soybeans may experience significant yield reductions.




5. WHO: The dengue fever outbreak in Bangladesh at the end of June is unusual compared to previous years, and the epidemic may not yet reach its peak. From January 1st to August 7th, the number of confirmed cases of dengue fever in the country was 69483, with 327 deaths and a mortality rate of 0.47%, both higher than the same period in the past five years. Among them, 63% of confirmed cases and 62% of deaths were reported in July.




Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 2.01% lower at 3189.25 points, with a weekly decline of 3.01%; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed 2.18% lower at 10808.87 points, down 3.82% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed 2.33% lower at 2187.04 points, down 3.37% for the week.




2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed 0.9% lower at 19075.19 points, down 2.38% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 2.39% lower at 4273.19 points, down 4.98% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed 1.33% lower at 6540.63, down 2.85% for the week.




3. CITIC Construction Investment: In July, lower than expected social finance data reflected insufficient market confidence in economic recovery. With the intensive introduction of policies, it is expected that the market's support for economic recovery will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year. In terms of credit, as most of the public loan reserve projects such as infrastructure are depleted in the first half of the year, the downstream credit demand of the industrial chain can drive the increase in credit investment. The issuance of government bonds in the third quarter will significantly accelerate, laying the foundation for the improvement of social finance data.




4. China Fund News: Since the beginning of this year, the scale of the CSI 1000 index increase fund has increased by 91% compared to the end of last year to 26.2 billion yuan, surpassing the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 enhancement and CSI 500 enhancement products during the same period in terms of excess returns. Due to the market style leaning towards small ticket sizes, the CSI 1000, as a representative index of small cap stocks, can outperform several other large cap and mid cap indices.




5. Cailian News Agency: In July, there were a total of 83 financing cases in the domestic consumer sector, an increase of 18.57% year-on-year and 36.07% month on month. The financing amount was 3.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.03%. The local living sector has performed outstandingly, with segmented tracks such as travel, entertainment, home life, pet consumption, and elderly care continuously receiving investment. Among them, T3 Travel and high-end mother and child care institution 'Saint Bella' received hundreds of millions of yuan in investment.




6. Jinglin Assets: The overseas subsidiary Jinglin Asset Management Hong Kong Limited has submitted its US stock holdings data as of the end of the second quarter to the US Securities Regulatory Commission. The total market value of the holdings is 2.069 billion US dollars, with a month on month increase of about 20%. We have significantly increased our holdings in several Chinese concept stocks, including Pinduoduo, NetEase, Manbang Group, Zhongtong Express, and Ideal Automobile, and are very optimistic about long-term opportunities in the AI artificial intelligence direction.




7. Helitai: Due to contract disputes and bill recovery, the company and its subsidiaries have frozen a total of 54 bank accounts, including 6 basic accounts and 48 general accounts. The actual frozen total amount is 117.5 million yuan.




8. New share subscription: This week, a total of 5 new share subscriptions were made, including 1 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 1 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board, 2 on the ChiNext Board, and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange. These include TailingMicro, Zhongchen Technology, Wavelength Optoelectronics, Duopule, and VisionSound Intelligence.




9. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 68 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 8.306 billion shares lifted and a market value of 146.598 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Haiguang Information ranked first on the lifting list with 36.963 billion yuan, while Xinyuan Group and Kaisai Biological ranked second and third with 18.285 billion yuan and 8.578 billion yuan, respectively.






Industry Observation




1. CCTV News: In the first half of the year, the export amount of lithium batteries in China increased by 58.1% year-on-year. Among the 'new three samples' in Fujian Province, lithium battery exports are the most eye-catching, with a year-on-year growth of 110.7%. The export of lithium batteries in Guangdong Province's 'new three samples' increased by 27.7%. The export volume of lithium batteries in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang has also grown rapidly, becoming a new engine driving the growth of foreign trade in the Yangtze River Delta.




2. China Internet of Things: In the first half of the year, the total amount of cold chain logistics in China was 3.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; The scale of the cold chain logistics market is 268.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The total demand for cold chain logistics is 210 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, and the cold chain market volume is steadily expanding.




3. Lighthouse Professional Edition: As of August 13th, three films in the summer season have grossed a record high of over 2 billion yuan at the box office, including 'The Disappearing She,' 'In the Octagonal Cage,' and 'The First Goddess.' In 2018, two films in the summer season grossed over 2 billion yuan at the box office.




4. China Securities News: Since August, there has been a short-term weakness in the steel market. The key factors affecting the demand in the steel market have evolved from real estate to the issuance of special bonds, exports, and increased demand in the manufacturing industry. As the pace of issuing new special bonds in August and September gradually accelerates, the weakness of steel is expected to reverse. The construction machinery steel demand, which has been weak in the early stage, is expected to stabilize in the third quarter after experiencing a decline in the early stage.




5. Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province: According to the recently updated material catalog, a total of 158 products have a price exceeding 50000 yuan, most of which are essential consumables for high-precision surgery. Taking the domestically produced interventional artificial heart valve worth 210000 yuan as an example, after policy adjustments, the proportion of self payment in advance decreased from 30% to 20%, and the reportable amount increased from 35000 yuan to 168000 yuan.




6. Guangzhou Daily: In the first half of the year, common Chinese medicinal herbs such as Angelica sinensis, Codonopsis pilosula, and Peony bark experienced significant price increases. This has a significant impact on both the upstream and downstream industry chains. Some patients who have been taking traditional Chinese medicine for a long time have stated that the price of a single dose of nourishing traditional Chinese medicine has increased from 60 yuan in the past to 100 yuan. Experts suggest establishing a nationally coordinated strategic reserve of traditional Chinese medicine to suppress price fluctuations.




7. Kyodo News Agency: Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport has developed guidelines for setting up charging stations for pure electric and hybrid vehicles on roads. The charging station can utilize the space next to the lane and should not affect the passage of pedestrians and bicycles. By 2030 at the latest, we will improve 150000 charging stations for the public, including 30000 public fast charging stations, and strive to achieve the convenience of gas stations.






Insight Economics




1. French National Bureau of Statistics: Since the price increase of one and a half years, the number of French consumers purchasing food has decreased by a record breaking 11.4%. Due to inflation, people are starting to purchase discounts, discounts, and retailers' brands. Although the annual increase in food prices in July was lower than in June, the price growth of meat, eggs, milk, grains, and vegetable oils remained significant.






Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7:30 pm against the US dollar at 7.2340, down 0.3719% and 0.7493% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1587, down 0.0154% and 0.2366% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, one new listed company was added, with a transaction amount of 1.058 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.39% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6455. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 35.625 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 836500 tons, with a total trading volume of 55.525 million yuan and a closing price of 69.90 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5.91%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed 0.3% higher at 35281.4 points, up 0.62% for the week; The Nasdaq closed down 0.68% at 13644.58 points, down 1.90% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 0.11% lower at 4464.05, down 0.31% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 1.24% to 7524.16, a weekly decline of 0.53%; The German DAX30 index fell 1.03% to 15832.17, a weekly decline of 0.75%; The French CAC40 index fell 1.26% to 7340.19, with a weekly increase of 0.34%.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX October gold futures closed 0.12% lower at $1927.7 per ounce, down 1.48% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI September crude oil futures closed up 0.45% at $83.19 per barrel, up 0.45% for the week; Brent October crude oil futures closed up 0.47% at $86.81 per barrel, up 0.66% for the week.




·Is energy inflation making a comeback·




Futures Daily: Against the backdrop of tight global supply, the weekly oil prices in Europe and America have seen seven consecutive highs. As the world's largest importer of crude oil, China's SC crude oil has closed for nine consecutive days against the backdrop of a weakening RMB exchange rate, continuing to hit the New Year's high oil price. With the rapid reduction of INE crude oil futures inventory warehouse receipts in recent times, contracts in recent months have shown a strong pull up, further highlighting the tight supply situation in the crude oil market. OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, took the initiative on the supply side and successfully lifted oil prices out of the crisis in June. After a month and a half of continuous rebound, oil prices have once again returned to the high point region of the year. As oil prices recover, major institutions are gradually increasing their outlook on oil prices.




► International Energy Agency: On the demand side, the average global crude oil demand reached a record level in June, with daily usage reaching 103 million barrels for the first time. It is expected to further increase in August. As for the reasons behind the increase in demand, analysis shows that driven by strong summer air travel, increased oil consumption for power generation, and increased crude oil chemical activities in China, crude oil demand is reaching a historic high. On the supply side, due to the impact of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, global crude oil inventories may significantly decrease for the rest of this year, leading to a rise in oil prices. If OPEC+insists on reducing production, oil prices may continue to rise. Despite soaring interest rates and tightening bank credit, the global economic outlook remains challenging.




► Minsheng Securities: OPEC+has a strong overall willingness to support oil prices, and the expected rebound in supply and demand is expected to drive high oil prices. The number of shale oil drilling rigs in the United States continues to decline, so the core issue of increasing production has not yet been resolved. In addition, due to the voting strikes of Australian workers on the North West Shelf, Whatstone, and Gorgon LNG projects, concerns about European natural gas supply have increased in the near winter market. Coupled with Norway's seasonal maintenance from August to September, the release of favorable factors has led to a significant increase in Dutch TTF natural gas futures prices. With the recovery of winter natural gas demand, oil and gas prices are also expected to support each other.




Industrial Securities: Although the US inflation in July was lower than expected, the stickiness of super core inflation points towards the hawkish Fed. The lag in the rise of retail oil prices has led to lower than expected overall inflation in July. Crude oil prices have also continued to rise since July, and the upward pressure on CPI from oil prices may become more pronounced after August, with a risk of transmission to core inflation. The Federal Reserve's focus on super core inflation rebounded in July, which is consistent with the resilience of labor market wages. This year, wage growth in the Eurozone has accelerated, slowing down the pace of core inflation and currently facing the risk of a new round of energy inflation. The market expects to stop raising interest rates in September, but under inflationary pressure, the hawkish risks of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank exceeding expectations cannot be underestimated.


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