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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-08-21

Date: 2023-08-21
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Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. Central Meteorological Station: At 18:00 on August 20, the blue warning for rainstorm and the blue warning for severe convection weather will continue to be issued. From the night of August 20 to 22, there will be light to moderate rain or heavy rain in Southwest China, North China, Northeast China, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan and South China, and local rainstorm or heavy rainstorm, with scattered heavy rainfall; Some of the above areas are accompanied by strong convective weather such as short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, or hail.




2. Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Transport: This year's flood season has seen heavy rainfall and a long duration, which has led to secondary geological disasters such as flash floods, mudslides, and collapses, causing serious damage to highway infrastructure. The task of emergency access to highways is arduous. We have once again issued a subsidy of 135 million yuan from vehicle purchase tax revenue to local governments, supporting disaster stricken areas in carrying out emergency road access work. This year, a total of 237 million yuan has been allocated for emergency response funds for highway flood control.




3. Pengpai News: At 7:00 am on August 20th, the newly built Hong Kong based container ship 'Dongfang Felixsto' completed the loading task of 2550 containers and departed from the first phase of Yangshan Port, officially starting its operational career. This is the fourth of the 12 24188 TEU container ships ordered by Dongfang Overseas to be delivered. The intensive visits of newly built container ships have led to a 5-year high in the number of inbound and outbound ships at Yangshan Port.




4. Science and Technology Daily: On August 13, the Pathogen Variation and Evolution Laboratory of the Ministry of Health of Israel detected a 'wild' COVID-19 sample, which may be the new generation variant of COVID-19, 'Pi'. However, as the World Health Organization has not yet identified this variant as a 'strain of concern', according to naming rules, it cannot be called 'Pi' yet, but is temporarily named Omicron BA.2.86.




5. CCTV Finance: To curb inflation, the Federal Reserve may need to further raise interest rates. In a high interest rate environment, the operating profits of the US real economy are being squeezed, and the operating pressure is gradually increasing. In the first seven months, the United States received a total of 402 bankruptcy applications from large and medium-sized enterprises, exceeding the total number of applications for the entire year of last year.




Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 1.00% at 3131.95 points, down 1.80% for the week; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed 1.75% lower at 10458.51 points, down 3.24% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed 1.31% lower at 2118.92 points, down 3.11% for the week.




2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed 2.05% lower at 17950.85 points, down 5.89% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 3.63% lower at 4007.39, a weekly decline of 6.22%; The state-owned enterprise index closed 2.31% lower at 6146.99 points, down 6.02% for the week.




3. CITIC Securities: The market has reappeared a triple bottom, which has the characteristics of a historical bottom in the past; The positive signals of policies have been very clear, and policy measures are constantly being implemented, which requires firm confidence; The effectiveness of policies and the reversal of market sentiment require time and patience. In terms of configuration, it is recommended that the industrial theme continue to revolve around the three dimensions of real estate, technology, and energy resources, while the policy theme revolves around the growth of subsequent government spending, focusing on the benefits of the digital economy and localized bonds.




4. CICC Corporation: Currently, the A-share market has included many cautious expectations. With market adjustments, valuation, sentiment, and investor behavior have further shown a bottom trend, and investment attractiveness has further increased. Combined with policy layer area polarization, the current main contradiction is resolved, and the bottom of corporate profits is gradually emerging. CICC believes that there is no need to be pessimistic about future market performance. The current position of the A-share has more opportunities than risks.




5. China Fund News: Fund companies have mixed performance reports in the first half of the year. Fund companies such as Huaxia, Nuoan, and Dongxing seized structural opportunities such as ETFs, AI, and fixed income, and achieved a breakthrough against the trend in the first half of the year. Some fund companies also experienced varying degrees of decline in net profit in the first half of the year. Among small fund companies, South China Fund has finally turned losses into profits in the first half of this year since its establishment in November 2016.




6. Securities Times: Ruifeng Huibang No.3 Private Equity Fund appeared in the list of the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in Kweichow Moutai in the fourth quarter of 2018. As of the mid report of 2023, it has held positions for 19 consecutive quarters, increased positions for 15 quarters, and only 4 quarters remained unchanged. Jinhui Rongsheng No.3 Private Equity Fund became the top ten shareholders of tradable shares in Kweichow Moutai in the mid report of 2019. By the mid report of 2023, it has been in position for 17 consecutive quarters.




7. Shanghai Securities News: Recently, there have been rumors in the market of 'tightening refinancing'. It is reported that under the trend of stricter auditing, there are indeed some projects that are temporarily suspended, but it is not advisable to confuse them with a comprehensive suspension. However, with changes in the market environment, refinancing has also shown a slowing trend. As of August 18th, 31 refinancing projects in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been terminated, with more terminations than in the entire year of last year.




8. China Software: We plan to transfer 100% of our equity in Great Wall Software to our affiliated data industry group for 486 million yuan through an agreement transfer. After the transfer is completed, I will no longer hold the equity of Great Wall Software.




9. Rongbai Technology: plans to use its own and self raised funds of no more than 1.993 billion yuan to increase capital to JS Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of South Korea, to expand the 40000 ton high nickel ternary cathode material project in South Korea; It is planned to establish a subsidiary in South Korea through the holding subsidiary Scolande to construct a project with an annual output of 20000 tons of lithium manganese iron phosphate cathode material, with an investment amount not exceeding 642 million yuan.




10. Zhejiang Shibao: In the first half of the year, its operating revenue was 728 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.39%; The net profit was 19.8372 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2218.41%. Benefiting from the overall good performance of the automotive industry, the company's sales of hydraulic circular steering gear and electric power steering system products have increased.




11. New share subscription: This week, there were only 3 new share subscriptions, including 1 on the Shanghai Main Board and 2 on the ChiNext Board, respectively Jindi Shares, Minsheng Health, and Rujing Technology.




12. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 75 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 7.316 billion shares lifted and a market value of 171.255 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Lianying Medical ranked first on the lifting list with 70.767 billion yuan, while Anke Innovation and Ningbo Port ranked second and third with 18.079 billion yuan and 9.116 billion yuan respectively.




Industry Observation




1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: As of now, the total scale of data center racks in use nationwide exceeds 7.6 million standard racks, with a total computing power of 197 billion floating-point operations per second, ranking second in the world; The construction of 130 trunk optical cables around the computing power hub nodes has significantly improved data transmission performance. China's computing power industry has begun to take shape, with the world's largest production of computing products such as servers, computers, and smartphones.




2. Exciting News: This year, Hollywood movies have finally entered the summer season, breaking the tradition of 'Domestic Film Protection Month' where films were introduced from June to August each year to avoid competition. However, these films have been 'destroyed' by Chinese domestic films, and even super IPs such as 'Transformers' and 'Mission Impossible' have lost their popularity, earning less than a fraction of the box office of popular domestic films.




3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The self-sufficiency rate of core livestock and poultry sources in China has exceeded 75%, effectively ensuring the demand for animal husbandry seeds and providing strong support for the supply of important agricultural products. We have independently cultivated a batch of excellent varieties with independent intellectual property rights, such as white feather broilers and Huaxi cattle. We have selected 86 national livestock and poultry breeding enterprises, and have trained and selected a total of 300 national core breeding farms.




4. Daily Economic News: Since July, many new energy car owners from Zhengzhou have reported that almost different brands of new energy charging stations in the city are experiencing price increases. Compared to the cheapest 'late night stage' on weekdays, the charging cost has increased by nearly twice. Not only Zhengzhou, but also Shanghai, Qingdao, Chongqing and other places have experienced an increase in the cost of using charging stations, with some areas experiencing peak increases of even 87%.




5. First Finance: In recent years, AstraZeneca has become the 'sales champion' of multinational pharmaceutical companies in the Chinese market. However, in the first half of this year, MSD surpassed AstraZeneca's $3.04 billion in sales with $3.58 billion, becoming the largest multinational pharmaceutical company in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year growth of over 45%. The surge in sales of MSD in China has been largely boosted by sales of HPV vaccines.




6. Song Shuyu, Associate President of China National Liquor Corporation: The era of Chinese Baijiu divided by flavor type has ended, and a 'hundred flowers bloom and a hundred schools of thought contend'. The era of personalized production area expression, winery expression, flavor expression and cultural expression is coming.




7. China Quality Certification Center: The MacBook Air, the M2 chip of Apple manufactured by Wentai Technology in mass production in the Kunming factory, has recently obtained the 3C quality certificate, marking that the M2 chip MacBook Air is also produced in Chinese Mainland after the M1 chip MacBook Air. It is understood that Apple MacBook Air product line has been produced by Quanta, Hon Hai and other Taiwan manufacturers before, and Wentai Technology is the only laptop manufacturer of Apple in Chinese Mainland.




8. S&P: Despite the current slowdown in demand, the German new car market is expected to turn positive this year, but sales will still be far below the pre pandemic peak.




9. Yue Tong News Agency: At the 43rd ASEAN Summit next month, it is expected that ASEAN will announce a new electric vehicle ecological cooperation plan under the '10+3' mechanism. The Director of the ASEAN Economic Cooperation Agency of the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that all ASEAN member countries do not adopt the same standards, rules, and electric vehicle infrastructure, and suggested that China, Japan, and South Korea help develop regional electric vehicle ecosystems.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.2896 at 16:30 against the US dollar, up 0.2832% and down 0.7686% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.2006, up 0.0971% and down 0.5853% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, 5 new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.391 billion yuan, an increase of 31.50% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6438. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 37.015 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 3.0456 million tons, with a total trading volume of 17.41254 million yuan and a closing price of 72.85 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.22%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed up 0.07% at 34500.66 points, down 2.21% for the week; The S&P 500 closed down 0.01% at 4369.71 points, down 2.11% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 0.20% lower at 13290.78 points, down 2.59% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 closed down 0.65% at 15574.26 points, down 1.63% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.38% lower at 7164.11 points, down 2.40% for the week; The FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.65% lower at 7262.43 points, down 3.48% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.07% and fell 1.54% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, the WTI September crude oil contract rose 1.07% to $81.25 per barrel, a weekly decrease of 2.33%; The Brent crude oil October contract rose 0.81% to $84.8 per barrel, down 2.32% for the week.




·Explore the 'treasure' of the 'the Belt and Road'·




► Yuanda Securities: Since 2013, the 'the Belt and Road' has been comprehensively promoting policy communication, facility connectivity, smooth trade, financing, and people to people connections, and the scale and coverage of mutual assistance has continued to expand. From 2013 to 2022, the volume of goods trade between China and countries and regions along the 'the Belt and Road' has increased from US $1.04 trillion to US $2.07 trillion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 8%; The non-financial direct investment of Chinese enterprises in the countries along the 'the Belt and Road' increased from US $11.59 billion to US $20.97 billion in 2013-2022; However, the newly signed contract amount/completed turnover of China's contracted projects in countries along the 'the Belt and Road' increased from USD 715/65.4 billion to USD 1296/84.9 billion.




► Zhongtai Securities: relevant summits and expos on the 'the Belt and Road' were held intensively, with topics covering energy, infrastructure and other fields. From the 7th China South Asia Expo in August, the 15th BRICS Summit, the 14th China Northeast Asia Expo, to the 43rd ASEAN Summit, G20 Summit, the the Belt and Road Summit Forum, the 20th China ASEAN Expo, and the 6th China Arab Countries Expo in September, several summits and expositions related to the 'the Belt and Road' will be held in succession, involving energy, infrastructure, digital economy Green finance and other topics will promote deeper and more practical cooperation in related fields, and promote the 'the Belt and Road' to heat up again.




► Industrial Securities: From an export perspective, 1) companies that have already established a presence in ASEAN. ASEAN is an important direction of the 'the Belt and Road'. China and ASEAN are increasingly close in cooperation and have been each other's largest trading partner for three consecutive years; ASEAN countries have a fast economic development speed, a large population, cost advantages in labor, and great market potential. 2) Companies that layout 'dry port' cities. The cluster effect of 'land port' cities is expected to drive the rise of local advanced manufacturing, logistics, processing trade, new energy and other industries. 3) Transforming and upgrading the export industry chain. From the perspective of inventory, the share of high value-added industries such as electromechanical and integrated circuits remains high; From an incremental perspective, domestic new energy vehicles are accelerating their efforts to seize overseas markets.




► Guosheng Securities: The third 'the Belt and Road' Summit Forum is expected to promote the implementation of more intergovernmental framework agreements, increase financial support policies and accelerate the recovery of international projects. At present, China's macro policies are in the initial stage of turning and scaling up, and subsequent series of stable growth policies are expected to be introduced in succession. Superimposed by the release of a new round of national reform documents in the second half of the year, 'stable growth'+'the Belt and Road'+'national reform' are expected to form a joint force, and the sector is expected to show more obvious excess returns. Recommended attention: 1) High quality central state-owned enterprises that benefit from stable growth policies and the steady improvement of their operations driven by the new round of state-owned enterprise reform; 2) Design, planning, and construction leaders that benefit from the accelerated transformation of urban villages in mega cities and mega cities. 3) In the early stage, there were many pullbacks, and driven by economic recovery policies, the valuation of pro cyclical sectors is expected to be significantly repaired, including steel structure leaders, construction equipment leasing, and so on.


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