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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-09-04

Date: 2023-09-04
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Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. Central Bank Mu Changchun: To achieve the use of digital RMB as a payment tool in all retail scenarios. Wallet providers such as WeChat, Alipay, the commercial bank Palm APP as an operating agency, and the APP of other third-party payment institutions should have a sense of compliance, obtain corresponding financial licenses, and obey supervision. In the short term, it is possible to unify the QR code standard from a technical perspective and achieve barcode mutual recognition.




2. Zheng Wei from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: In the first half of the year, the cross-border capital flow of capital projects stabilized and improved, and foreign capital showed a net inflow trend. Foreign capital net purchases of domestic stocks and bonds increased, with foreign capital net purchases of nearly 79 billion US dollars in domestic bonds.




3. Xinhua News Agency: Since September 2nd, most areas of Wuzhou, Yulin, Guigang, and other cities in Guangxi have experienced moderate to heavy rain due to the impact of Typhoon No. 9, 'Sula'. Affected by heavy rainfall, Beiliu River and its tributaries such as Yangmei River, Huanghua River, and Yichang River experienced a 3-9 meter flood process, with a total of 9 rivers and 16 stations experiencing floods exceeding the alarm by 0.01 to 3.43 meters.




4. CCTV News: The World Tourism Cooperation and Development Conference has released the 'World Tourism City Development Report (2022)'. In the 2022 World Tourism City Development Top 20 Cities Ranking released on September 2nd, Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong ranked 7th, 8th, and 9th respectively.




5. Global Network: Three opposition parties in South Korea held the 'Stop Fukushima Nuclear Polluted Water Discharging to the Sea, Condemning the Second National Assembly of the Yoon Seok yeon Government' in Seoul Central on September 2nd. The leader of South Korea's largest opposition party, the Common Democratic Party, Lee Jae ming, will send a handwritten letter to the parties to the London Dumping Convention opposing Japan's Fukushima nuclear contaminated water discharge into the sea.





Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% to 3133.25 points, with a weekly increase of 2.26%; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 0.44% at 10463.74 points, up 3.29% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed 0.11% lower at 2100.26 points, up 2.93% for the week.




2. Last Thursday, the Hang Seng Index closed 0.55% lower at 18382.06, with a weekly increase of 2.37%; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 0.38% lower at 4179.49 points, up 2.97% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed 0.38% lower at 6332.42 points, with a weekly increase of 2.54%.




3. CITIC Securities: The market will welcome the 'Jinjiu' market, and it is recommended to layout three main lines in terms of configuration. The financial behavior of the game policy has been concentrated and fulfilled after the policy is centralized; The behavior of 'redeeming subjectivity and buying passivity' has a time difference that causes short-term fluctuations, but reflects optimistic expectations of the market; The scale of capital outflow from the north has reached its historical peak, and the trend may reverse after the implementation of policies that are intensive and effective; There are misunderstandings about quantification, and strengthening quantitative trading monitoring will alleviate their anxiety.




4. China Merchants Securities: Currently, the fundamentals, funding, and policy aspects faced by A-shares have been comprehensively improved, and key negative bearish factors are gradually being implemented. Focus on information technology, real estate chain, and some bulk commodities. The primary mainline revolves around the digital economy, intelligence, and autonomy and controllability. The secondary main line is to optimize real estate policies and stabilize growth through phased efforts. Segmented tracks include semiconductors, AI, intelligent driving, robotics, data elements, information technology, real estate chains, and industrial metals.




5. Jiao Jinhong, Chief Lawyer of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated that the financial 'bathing' special rectification of listed companies has investigated 32 companies, and the special action on corporate governance has successfully concluded. The rectification rate of discovered problems has exceeded 95%. We have also strengthened the punishment of major cases and law enforcement in key areas. From 2021 to 2022, we handled more than 1200 cases of financial fraud by listed companies, illegal intermediary agencies, and false statements in bonds.




6. Hong Kong Financial Secretary Chen Maobo: Lowering the stamp duty on stock trading is not sufficient to structurally and long-term stimulate stock market trading. For the Hong Kong stock market, it is necessary to comprehensively examine the various factors that affect the market, identify the root cause of the problem, and apply the right medicine to the situation. Otherwise, scattered stimulus measures will not help boost market conditions and may further weaken investor confidence due to ineffective results.




7. Securities Times: In the first half of the year, out of 216 companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, 90% achieved profits with a revenue of 77.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.43%; The net profit was 5.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.93%. Among them, 60% of the revenue increased, with 38 companies experiencing revenue growth exceeding 30%. The photovoltaic industry benefited from the 'dual carbon' policy, with an average net profit growth of 35.84% year-on-year.




8. China Securities Regulatory Commission: Currently, there are a total of 140 securities companies in the industry, of which 34 subsidiaries have been merged into the parent company for evaluation, with a total of 106 participating entities. A. The proportion of Class B and Class C companies is 50%, 40%, and 10% respectively, while the number of AA level companies remains around 14.




9. Securities Times: The A-share delisting team will be further expanded. Except for warp and weft spinning machines, a total of 44 enterprises were officially declared delisted from January to August this year. However, the overall number of A-shares delisted is currently very limited, with no more than 200 delisted as of the end of last year. The 'more in, less out' market ecology still exists. Behind building an active capital market, it is essential to continuously improve the 'in and out' survival of the fittest mechanism.




10. Tongda Chuangzhi (Second Board): The recent business situation has been normal, and there are no significant changes in the internal and external business environment or expected to occur; The controlling shareholder and actual controller do not have any significant matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed about the company, or are in the planning stage.




11. Multi fluoro: At present, the company's sodium ion batteries have completed winter standard testing for two car companies in the passenger vehicle field, and the battery pack SOP has been completed by the end of the year. Hydrofluoric acid and electronic grade silane have been successfully imported into SMIC International, and other semiconductor factories are also in the process of importing, some of which have achieved batch supply.




12. New share subscription: This week, there were a total of 4 new share subscriptions, including 1 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 2 on the Growth Enterprise Board, and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, namely Siling Group, Shengke Communication, Wande Group, and Chongde Technology.




13. Restriction and lifting of restrictions: This week, a total of 57 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 3.458 billion shares lifted and a market value of 57.661 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Huafeng Aluminum ranked first on the lifting list with 11.659 billion yuan, while Goodway and Fuxin Software ranked second and third with 8.109 billion yuan and 3.312 billion yuan, respectively.




Wealth Focus




1. Jia Ronge, Ministry of Finance: China's new energy vehicles are only exempt from vehicle purchase tax, and as of the end of 2022, the cumulative tax-free scale has reached over 200 billion yuan. It is expected that the tax exemption amount will exceed 115 billion yuan in 2023. This fully reflects the strategic determination of the country to support the development of new energy vehicles.




2. Xinhua News Agency: Since the implementation of the new duty-free 'buy and pick up' policy in Hainan's outlying islands five months ago, the 'buy and pick up' shopping amount for outlying tourists has exceeded 1.4 billion yuan. The off shore duty-free goods picked up by the way of 'immediate purchase and immediate delivery' mainly include cosmetics, perfume, sunglasses, clothing, scarves, shoes and hats, bags, infant formula milk powder, razors, etc.




3. Financial breakfast: Hot topics keep coming up, tracking what you want to hear. The reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits has been lowered from 6% to 4%, approaching a historical low of 100BP




Insight Economics




1. SpaceX: On September 2nd local time, 13 military satellites were launched using the Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenburg Air Force Base in California for NASA.




2. Canada: This year, the area of forest fires has reached 163000 square kilometers, with 1087 burning forest fires throughout the country, of which more than 700 are in a state of loss of control. Several highways in the severely affected northern part of Western British Columbia have been closed. Currently, most of the newly ignited fires are caused by human factors.





Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 7.2633 at 16:30 against the US dollar, up 0.3717% and 0.3444% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1788, up 0.0320%, with a weekly increase of 0.1322%.




2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.377 billion yuan, an increase of 5.21% month on month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6374. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 39.702 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 983400 tons, with a total trading volume of 67.904 million yuan and a closing price of 68.43 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6.34%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed up 0.33% at 34837.71 points, up 1.43% for the week; The S&P 500 index closed 0.18% higher at 4515.77, up 2.5% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 0.02% lower at 14031.81 points, up 3.25% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index closed down 0.67% at 15840.34, up 1.33% for the week; The French CAC40 index closed 0.27% lower at 7296.77 points, up 0.93% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK closed 0.34% higher at 7464.54, up 1.72% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX December gold futures closed 0.06% higher at $1967.1 per ounce, up 1.40% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures closed up 2.29% at $85.55 per barrel, up 7.16% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 1.98% higher at $88.55 per barrel, up 5.48% for the week.




·The central bank's foreign exchange 'reserve requirement reduction'·




► Guojin Securities: The decrease in the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits, the strengthening of the US dollar under the impact of US bond supply, and the outflow of funds due to insufficient domestic energy are the main reasons for the depreciation of the RMB. On the one hand, the supply shock combined with the Federal Reserve's hawking has led to a 40bp increase in the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate in August to 4.37%, and a rapid appreciation of 2.4% in the US dollar index, which has suppressed the Chinese yuan. On the other hand, the endogenous momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be boosted. The central bank lowered interest rates by another 15bp in August, and the inverted interest rate difference between China and the United States deepened the outflow of foreign investment. The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits has a direct effect on releasing the supply of foreign exchange funds and easing the liquidity constraints on bank foreign currency loans. This adjustment is another addition to the 'stable exchange rate' package of policies, with a strong signaling effect. Recently, the central bank has continuously increased its measures to stabilize exchange rates.




Galaxy Securities: Since July, the central bank has been intensively using foreign exchange adjustment tools to demonstrate its attitude and stabilize expectations for the RMB exchange rate. Stabilizing the RMB exchange rate is one of the important tasks of the central bank. The central bank's foreign exchange operations will not change the trend, and we need to wait for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates in the fourth quarter of this year. After entering the interest rate reduction cycle again in the second half of next year, the misalignment of China US monetary policy cycles will improve accordingly. The PMI data has rebounded for three consecutive months, with PPI, commodities, inventory, and exports all at the bottom of their own cycles. The upward combination of endogenous economic cycles and the force of countercyclical policies will jointly promote the domestic economy to gradually break out of the trough in the fourth quarter, easing the pressure on the RMB exchange rate caused by economic fundamentals. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate widely within the 7.2 to 7.3 range this year. The central bank will continue to monitor the exchange rate market and use foreign exchange management tools again if necessary.




► Caitong Securities: The policy transmission channels for stabilizing exchange rates are as follows. Firstly, in terms of direct channels, release domestic foreign currency fund supply, improve the turnover and yield of foreign currency funds, reduce the opportunity cost of holding foreign currency funds, thereby improving the willingness to hold foreign currency funds and easing the downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Secondly, in terms of indirect channels, the central bank immediately sends policy signals to the market to prevent the RMB exchange rate from falling too quickly and excessively, guiding the market to maintain neutral expectations and correcting the unilateral expectations and herd behavior that may be caused by the RMB exchange rate decline. After reviewing the operating history of this tool in recent years, it can be seen that adjusting the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio has a good countercyclical adjustment effect.




Huachuang Securities: Lowering the foreign exchange reserve ratio can release approximately $16.4 billion in foreign exchange liquidity. At the same time, increasing the supply of onshore US dollars is equivalent to reducing the attractiveness of the US dollar, while once again releasing the signal of the central bank's intention to 'stabilize', which helps to further stabilize market expectations and maintain the basic stability of the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level. Regarding exchange rates, policy signals are stronger than specific measures. The central bank may have greater significance in releasing clear policy signals and guiding market expectations towards stability by reducing the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange. For equity, the exchange rate is to some extent an indicator of A-share sentiment, and the stock market often comes under pressure during periods of RMB depreciation. For bonds, the central bank deliberately guides exchange rate stability or brings about tightening of interbank liquidity.


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