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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-09-18

Date: 2023-09-18
Views: 3

Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. Xinhua News Agency: The two-day 'Group of 77 and China' summit closed on September 16th in the capital of Cuba, Havana. The summit passed the Havana Declaration, calling for comprehensive reform of the international financial structure and the construction of a more inclusive and coordinated global economic governance pattern. In addition, through a separate statement, Mexico was agreed to rejoin the 'Group of 77 and China' mechanism.




2. Ministry of Public Security: Yunnan public security organs were deployed to strengthen border police cooperation, and continued to carry out multiple rounds of combat operations. 1482 fraud related suspect were handed over to us. On September 16, the public security organs in Pu'er, Yunnan continued to carry out border police cooperation, and 109 suspect of telecom network fraud and a number of crime tools were handed over to us, including 11 fugitives online, forming a continuous strike trend.




3. CCTV News: On September 17th, the Hengqin Guangdong Macao Deep Cooperation Zone celebrated its second anniversary of listing. In the past two years, customs have released 21.25 million passengers and approximately 2.9 million vehicles through customs clearance at Hengqin Port. There are over 1600 enterprises registered by customs, an increase of 29.23% compared to two years ago.




4. Bangladesh General Health Service: As of September 16th, the country has reported a total of 164562 dengue fever cases and 804 deaths since the beginning of this year, including 211 deaths in September. The World Health Organization says this is the most severe dengue fever outbreak on record in the country.




5. Japan's Ministry of General Affairs: As of September 15th, it is estimated that there are 36.23 million elderly people aged 65 and above in Japan, accounting for 29.1% of the total population, an increase of 0.1% compared to last year, which is the highest record since relevant statistics are available. The number of elderly people aged 80 and above in Japan has increased by 270000 compared to last year, reaching 12.59 million, accounting for more than 10% of the total population for the first time




Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.28% to 3117.74 points, with a weekly increase of 0.03%; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed 0.52% lower at 10144.59 points, down 1.34% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed down 0.45% at 2002.73 points, down 2.29% for the week.




2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed 0.75% higher at 18182.89 points, down 0.11% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed up 0.46% at 4077.91, down 0.34% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed up 0.55% at 6309.59 points, down 0.08% for the week.




3. CICC: From the recent growth situation, there are signs of marginal improvement in China's economic fundamentals. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of policy implementation in supporting fundamentals, considering that the policy level is actively resolving the current main contradictions, the bottom of corporate profits is gradually emerging, and valuation, sentiment, and investor behavior have shown a trend towards the bottom. At the current point, there is no need to be too pessimistic, and the market should remain patient during the 'bottom grinding period'.




4. Haitong Securities: In the medium to long term, A-shares still have a significant profit making effect, and the trend of residential asset allocation towards equity transfer continues, with domestic capital expected to flow in. Although the A-share market is an immature market that often faces significant short-term fluctuations, it still has a significant profit making effect over time. Looking back, as the activity of the capital market increases, investor confidence may be boosted, and funds are expected to further flow in.




5. China Fund News: Recently, there have been fund managers joining the queue to open up large-scale subscriptions. According to the industry, on the one hand, it can replenish ammunition for funds, facilitate fund managers to layout against the trend, and to some extent, avoid the impact of redemption on fund performance; On the other hand, it is also hoped to weaken the short-term impact of the market, be optimistic about the medium to long-term trend of A-shares, and guide investors to invest rationally.




6. Dongfang Fashion: Approved for arrest on suspicion of manipulating the securities market, unable to perform the duties of a director, chairman, and special committee member of the company. The board of directors agreed to dismiss Xu Xiong from his positions as a director, chairman, and other positions, and recommended Yan Wenhui, one of the company's founders, director, and general manager, to perform the duties of chairman on his behalf.




7. United Precision (6-way Plate): Currently, the air conditioning compressor parts and other projects in the 'Guangdong Yangshan United Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Annual Production 30000 Tons of Air Conditioning Compressor Parts, Automotive Parts, Robot Parts, and Photolithography Machine Parts Casting Project' project of the company are being systematically promoted. Among them, there is no relevant technical reserve for the lithography machine parts casting project, and there are no business orders related to lithography machine parts casting.




8. Beautiful Ecology (3 days and 2 boards): There have been no significant changes in the recent business situation and internal and external business environment. The company, controlling shareholders, and actual controllers do not have any significant matters that should be disclosed but have not been disclosed, or are in the planning stage.




9. New share subscription: This week, a total of 4 new share subscriptions were made, including 2 on the ChiNext board and 2 on the Science and Technology Innovation board, which are Sanxing Shares, CIMC Environmental Technology, AGCO Cyber, and Haochen Software.




10. Sales restrictions lifted: This week, a total of 104 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 9.545 billion shares lifted and a market value of 122.186 billion yuan lifted; Among them, Xinao Group ranked first on the lifting list with 23.602 billion yuan, while Siripu and Yirui Technology ranked second and third with 10.389 billion yuan and 10.081 billion yuan, respectively.




Industry Observation




1. CCTV Finance: The Universiade concludes, the Asian Games takes over, and with the booming 'Village Super' and 'Village BA', the 'Sports Economy' has also become a new highlight of Chinese consumption. 54% of respondents expect to increase sports consumption spending in the next year. Among them, respondents with an annual income of 300000 to 500000 yuan showed the strongest willingness, reaching 68%, 14 percentage points higher than the national average.




2. Xinhua News Agency: Chinese scientists have successfully developed a weathering crust type rare earth ore electric drive mining technology, which increases the rare earth recovery rate by about 30%, reduces the impurity content by about 70%, and shortens the mining time by about 70%. The relevant achievements have been published in 11 high-level papers in journals such as 'Nature Sustainability', and 7 authorized invention patents have been obtained. A demonstration project with a scale of 5000 tons of earthwork has been built.




3. Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian: Promote the application of information technology and implement smart farm pilot projects in ASEAN countries. Expand agricultural economy and trade, and build another batch of high-level agricultural economic and trade investment cooperation parks. Promote people-to-people and cultural exchanges, close exchanges of agricultural talents at all levels and fields, and implement a number of 'small and beautiful' poverty reduction projects.




4. China Bicycle Association: As the world's largest producer and exporter of bicycles, China currently has over 200 million bicycles in social ownership. At present, the production of lightweight and intelligent electric powered bicycles has grown significantly. In the past two years, the domestic sales growth rate of electric powered bicycles has exceeded 20%, and electric powered bicycles with intelligent functions are highly favored by young consumers.




5. Business Society: In the first half of September, the overall copper price remained sluggish during the peak season. The optimism brought about by the stimulus policy has led to a slight rebound in copper prices, but LME inventory continues to increase, exacerbating concerns about inventory accumulation. The global supply of copper is expected to continue to grow steadily, suppressing copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, making it difficult for them to rise significantly.




6. Bolivian Minister of Hydrocarbons and Energy: The Brazilian and Bolivian governments are preparing to sign a memorandum of understanding to jointly invest in the lithium industry. The memorandum also includes new contracts for the sale of natural gas after 2026, investment in hydrocarbon exploration, and matters related to fertilizer plants in both countries.




7. Overseas website: According to data released by the US Department of Statistics, from January to July, the US purchased 944 million US dollars of Russian fertilizers, setting a new record. Russia is currently the second largest fertilizer supplier to the United States, with Canada being the largest supplier. The United States imported $2.8 billion of Canadian fertilizers in the first seven months.




8. Global Network: The South Korean Ministry of Science and Technology has requested Apple to submit a report on the radiation issue of the iPhone 12 model. Previously, the iPhone 12 model was reported to have been discontinued in the French market due to electromagnetic radiation values exceeding EU standards, and the Netherlands also requested Apple to explain the situation.




Insight Economics




1. CCTV News: On September 17th, the United Auto Workers of America entered its third day of strikes against Detroit's three major automakers, and there is currently no immediate solution. The day before, representatives of General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis resumed negotiations with union representatives. Stellantis proposes a 20% salary increase during the four and a half year contract period, including an immediate 10% salary increase.




2. Peterson Institute of International Economics: Most member countries of the Indo Pacific Economic Framework, including South Korea, have gradually increased their trade dependence on China over the past decade. Taking 2021 as an example, China accounts for an average of over 30% of the import source countries of the member countries of the Indo Pacific Economic Framework, and its export to China accounts for about 20%. Compared to 2010, China's share of imports and exports in these countries has increased by 40% and 45%, respectively.




Financial data




1. RMB: Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 7.2691 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.0138% and 0.9862% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.1786, up 0.1224%, with a weekly increase of 0.5045%.




2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.297 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.94% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6377. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 42.35 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 1.4749 million tons, with a total trading volume of 109.2178 million yuan and a closing price of 74.76 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 3.52%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed 0.83% lower at 34618.24, with a weekly increase of 0.12%; The S&P 500 closed 1.22% lower at 4450.32 points, down 0.16% for the week; The Nasdaq closed 1.56% lower at 13708.33, down 0.39% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.5% to 7711.38 points, up 3.12% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 0.96% to 7378.82 points, up 1.91% for the week; The German DAX30 index rose 0.56% to 15893.53, up 0.97% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX December gold futures closed 0.69% higher at $1946.20 per ounce, up 0.18% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI October crude oil futures closed up 0.67% at $90.77 per barrel, up 3.7% for the week; Brent November crude oil futures closed up 0.25% at $93.93 per barrel, up 3.62% for the week.




·The pharmaceutical industry breaks the 'roll' with innovation·




Guotai Jun'an: The short-term tightening of the environment has an impact, and the pharmaceutical industry is expected to return to the main logic of demand driven after gradually clarifying. Under the classic DCF valuation model, if only a 3-5 month revenue revision is made, it will not significantly affect the discounted valuation of the company. However, based on the objective characteristics of the market itself, short-term stock prices will more reflect short-term 'marginal changes'. From the performance of stock prices from the end of July to the present, a considerable portion of the downward expectations for the tightening of the internal market have been traded. Since September, with the easing of the external environment, the sector has begun to stabilize and rebound. Although it is difficult to completely avoid the impact of the performance of some companies in the third quarter, if negative expectations have already been largely reflected, there is limited room for further decline. With the passage of time, the situation becomes clearer and uncertainty is more eliminated, which is expected to return to the demand driven investment logic once again.




CITIC Securities: The cyclical low prosperity of the current investment and financing environment and the policy impact do not change the high certainty of the growth of the biopharmaceutical industry. Innovation driven+high-end manufacturing is still the main line of growth, and the acceleration of domestic substitution and the implementation of medical infrastructure are still the beta of the industry for 3-5 years. The combination of industry anti-corruption and other factors is profoundly affecting industry transformation. Leading enterprises relying on their technological strength are expected to accelerate the concentration of their top advantages through integration and mergers, bringing stronger investment certainty, and also giving birth to new pharmaceutical business models. However, the overall medical anti-corruption may bring uncertainty to some companies' performance in the second half of the year, and it also requires active attention.




Southwest Securities: Continuously optimistic about the bottom opportunities of pharmaceuticals, focusing on grasping the 'three main lines'. The position of the pharmaceutical industry is still in a low allocation state, and the valuation is at the historical bottom range. Looking forward to the second half of 2023, we are optimistic about the pharmaceutical investment main line of 'innovation+going overseas, and the second half of recovery'. 1) Mainline 1- Innovation remains the source of sustainable development in the pharmaceutical industry. Differentiated innovative varieties such as BTK, HER2-ADC, PD-1/CTLA-4 and other target innovative drugs have gradually entered the stage of commercialization and release; Innovative instruments, including multiple surgical robot products, have been approved and launched one after another; 2) Mainline 2- Post epidemic medical recovery is also the core mainline. The recovery of demand for medical equipment in the hospital includes the demand for prescription drugs, consumables, blood products, and routine vaccination in the hospital; The channel end includes pharmaceutical distribution and pharmacy recovery.




Shanxi Securities: In the first half of 2023, the certainty of industry upward did not change, and the policies of supply, demand, and payment have continuity, with some measures tending to correct deviations and becoming more reasonable. The structural market of the pharmaceutical sector in the first half of the year is mainly reflected in the upgrading of generic drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, and China Special Evaluation. With the passing of the epidemic and the stabilization of the external macro environment, the pharmaceutical sector is at the bottom of its valuation in the past decade. In the second half of the year, we still believe that certainty is an opportunity and look for targets from bottom to top. It is recommended to focus on the innovative drug sector under the trend of marginal improvement of the external macro environment combined with industrial upgrading, medical devices and equipment under domestic substitution, generic drug sector with reasonable valuation and performance determination, and traditional Chinese medicine stocks with reasonable valuation under favorable policies.


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