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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-11-06

Date: 2023-11-06
Views: 5

Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. Central Financial Work Conference: Always maintain the stability of monetary policy and pay more attention to cross cycle and countercyclical regulation; Conduct five major articles on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care finance, and digital finance; Establish a long-term mechanism for preventing and resolving local debt risks, and optimize the debt structure of central and local governments; Satisfy the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, better support the demand for rigid and improved housing, accelerate the construction of 'three major projects' such as affordable housing, and build a new model for real estate development.




2. State Council: Issuing the Overall Plan for China (Xinjiang) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The implementation scope of the pilot free trade zone is 179.66 square kilometers, covering Urumqi, Kashi and Khorgos. Encourage non-financial enterprises and financial institutions in the pilot free trade zone to innovate cooperation methods and deepen exchanges and cooperation with financial institutions in the 'the Belt and Road' countries. Support overseas financial institutions to establish new legal person financial institutions such as banks, insurance, securities, etc. in accordance with the law and regulations in the pilot free trade zone.




3. Daily Economic News: On October 31st, the pledged repo variety R01D in the interbank market experienced a maximum repo rate of 50% during trading. According to market analysts close to the central bank, starting from November 1st, as the month end factors subside and the initial fiscal bond issuance funds are converted into fiscal expenditures, and it is expected that the central bank will continue to provide sufficient liquidity based on market demand to fully meet market demand, the money market rate will fall back to near the central bank's open market operating rate.




4. Goldman Sachs: Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to increase productivity in the next decade. In the United States, it is expected that AI will boost GDP by 0.1 percentage points to 2% in 2027. Boost by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3% in 2034; In the eurozone, AI boosted GDP by 0.1 percentage points in 2028 and 0.3 percentage points in 2034, reaching 1.4%; In Japan, AI boosted GDP by 0.3 percentage points to 0.9% in 2033.




5. Bank of Japan: The benchmark interest rate was kept at a historical low of -0.1%, and the yield target of 10-year treasury bond bonds was kept near 0%, in line with market expectations.






Stock market inventory




1. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3018.77 points, down 0.09%, with a transaction volume of 386.277 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 9863.80 points, down 0.65%, with a transaction volume of 532.044 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 1968.23 points, down 0.48%, with a transaction volume of 244.734 billion yuan. Overall, individual stocks saw more declines than gains, with over 2900 stocks in both markets falling. The transaction volume of the two markets is 918.3 billion, a decrease of 119.8 billion compared to the previous trading day. On the market, sectors such as Hainan, assisted reproduction, coal, and medical beauty saw the highest gains, while sectors such as automotive vehicles, computing power, 6G, and BC batteries saw the highest declines. Northbound funds sold a net of 4.753 billion yuan throughout the day, with Shanghai Stock Connect selling a net of 1.464 billion yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect selling a net of 3.289 billion yuan.




2. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.69% to 17112.48. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.47% to 3759.16. The state-owned enterprise index fell 1.65% to 5861.74 points. On the market, Shunyu Optical Technology fell by over 5%, Ideal Automobile and SMIC International fell by over 3%, Meituan, Tencent Holdings, Xiaopeng Automobile fell by over 2%, and Alibaba fell by over 1%. Southbound funds net purchased HKD 1.935 billion. Among them, the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought HKD 927 million, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net bought HKD 1.009 billion.




3. As of October 31st, there were 225 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with no new additions on that day. The total market value is 259.504 billion yuan, with a transaction amount of 1.129 billion yuan.




4. Financing balance between the two cities: As of October 30th, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported to be 814.89 billion yuan, an increase of 4.657 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day; The financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported to be 731.557 billion yuan, an increase of 5.054 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day; The total amount of the two cities is 1546.447 billion yuan, an increase of 9.711 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.




5. Pengpai News: As of the close on October 30th, 275 companies have made initial public offerings on A-shares this year, with a total IPO fundraising of 331.554 billion yuan. Among them, 198 belong to 'specialized, refined, and innovative' enterprises, accounting for 72%; The total amount raised through IPO is 17.9146 billion yuan, accounting for 71%.




6. Securities Daily: In the first three quarters, the operating revenue of 43 A-share listed securities firms was 381.917 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.84%; The net profit was 109.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.46%. Among them, only CITIC Securities had a net profit of over 10 billion yuan, followed closely by Huatai Securities (9.586 billion yuan) and Guotai Junan (8.627 billion yuan). In addition, the self operated business of securities firms has become the biggest support for performance growth, and the performance of asset management business is relatively stable, achieving year-on-year growth.




7. Shanghai Securities News: Over the past four years, 60 institutions have obtained fund investment advisory licenses, with a service asset scale of nearly 150 billion yuan and a customer base of over 5 million. Fund investment advisors are still an emerging phenomenon. It is necessary for investment advisory institutions to immerse themselves in various aspects of accumulation.




8. China Securities News: There are 45 listed companies that plan to distribute cash dividends in the third quarter, with a total planned cash distribution of 14.716 billion yuan, setting a new historical high. Listed companies can enhance investors' sense of gain and the attractiveness of the enterprise by rewarding them with cash dividends while achieving excellent business performance. The undervalued and high dividend track is worth paying attention to.




9. Beijing Stock Exchange: In the first three quarters, the operating revenue of 225 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange was 120.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.59%; The net profit was 8.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.09%. Ninety percent of companies achieved profitability, sixty percent achieved year-on-year revenue growth, and more than eighty percent implemented cash dividends. In addition, the decline in net profit in the third quarter has narrowed compared to the first half of the year, and the profit situation in the fourth quarter is expected to further improve.




10. Hong Kong Stock Exchange: On October 25th, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway completed the sale of 820500 BYD H-shares at an average price of HKD 245.86 per share, reducing its shareholding from 8.05% to 7.98%. The cash out is approximately HKD 201.7 million, and currently holds a total of 87613100 shares in BYD.




11. Goldman Sachs: There is a significant difference between the current Chinese stock market and the Japanese stock market in the late 1980s. The valuation peak of the Japanese stock market reached 60 times the rolling P/E ratio, while the peak of the Chinese stock market was 20 times; The profit growth momentum of Japanese companies in the late 1980s was much lower than that of current Chinese companies; The value of the Japanese yen has doubled since the Plaza Accord and remained strong even after the stock index reached a high point, but the appreciation of the Chinese yuan has been limited since the exchange rate reform in 2005; The relatively low allocation of stocks in Chinese residents' investments means that the Chinese stock market has stronger potential for capital inflows in the future.




12. Jingke Energy: With strong shipping certainty throughout the year, we are confident in achieving the shipping target of 70-75GW; It is expected to maintain a healthy growth rate next year, with a market growth rate of no less than 30%. TOPCon's mass production efficiency can reach over 28%, and the company has set subsequent technical mass production targets over time, currently ranging from 25.6% to 25.7%.




13. Longji Green Energy: According to previous disclosures, the annual component shipment target is 85GW, and this year's component shipment may only achieve 85% of the target, with an expected output of around 72GW. Mainly due to insufficient prediction of the magnitude of changes in silicon material prices at the beginning of the year, the impact is significant. At the same time, in the second quarter's price reduction and competitor buying, Longji did not actively participate and adhered to a prudent strategy.




14. Ningde Times: It plans to repurchase shares for 2-3 billion yuan for the implementation of equity incentive plans or employee stock ownership plans, with a maximum repurchase price of 294.45 yuan per share.




15. Guoxuan High Tech plans to repurchase shares for 300 million to 600 million yuan for the implementation of equity incentive plans or employee stock ownership plans. The repurchase price shall not be higher than 150% of the average trading price of the company's stock on the 30 trading days prior to the repurchase resolution.




Wealth Focus




1. Central Financial Work Conference: Promote the deepening and implementation of the stock issuance registration system, vigorously improve the quality of listed companies, and cultivate first-class investment banks and institutions; Supporting large state-owned financial institutions to become better and stronger, serving as the main force of the real economy and the ballast stone for maintaining financial stability; Steadily expanding institutional openness in the financial sector, attracting more foreign financial institutions and long-term capital to come to China for business development. Enhance the competitiveness and influence of Shanghai International Financial Center, and consolidate and enhance the status of Hong Kong as an international financial center.




2. Shanghai Securities News: In the first three quarters, the issuance of 'Panda Bonds' (RMB bonds issued by overseas institutions in China) and 'Dim sum bonds' (RMB denominated bonds issued by various institutions in Hong Kong, China) grew strongly, soaring to 106.4 billion yuan (up 45.8% year on year) and 167.1 billion yuan (up 179.3% year on year) respectively. Since the beginning of this year, the issuance of 'Panda Bonds' has exceeded the previous round of issuance peak in 2016, reaching a historic high.




Insight Economics




1. The South Korean Financial Supervisory Authority: The global investment bank with the most frequent short selling transactions in South Korea will be investigated, and the investigation will begin in November. We will investigate all short selling transactions since May 2021, when South Korea partially lifted the stock short selling ban implemented during the pandemic. It will change its investigation mode to focus on institutional investors, rather than investigating short selling cases of specific stocks.




2. Eurozone: In the third quarter, the initial GDP rate was 0.1%, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.5%; A month on month decrease of 0.1% is expected to remain unchanged.




3. Glassdoor: The discussion of layoffs in October reached its highest level since July 2020. Employee confidence has deteriorated to its lowest level since 2016. American workers are increasingly concerned about layoffs, although their concerns about the impending economic recession are weakening.




Financial data




domestic




1. New Third Board: On October 31st, a total of 6290 companies were listed, with an increase of 1 company on the same day and a transaction amount of 199 million. The Third Board Composite Index closed at 880.47, up 0.47%, with a transaction volume of 91 million yuan.




2. Domestic commodity futures: As of the afternoon of October 31st, the closing price was mixed, with styrene (EB), caustic soda, pulp, and industrial silicon rising by over 1%. In terms of decline, rapeseed meal fell by over 3%, palm oil fell by over 2%, and cotton and SC crude oil fell by nearly 2%.




3. Treasury bond: on October 31, the main contract TS2312 of two-year treasury bond futures rose 0.02% to 101.100; The main contract of five-year treasury bond bond futures TF2312 rose 0.09% to 101.925; The main contract T2312 of 10-year treasury bond bond futures rose 0.15% to 101.890. The 10-year treasury bond bond interest rate fell 2.03BP to 2.69%; The 10-year national development bond interest rate fell by 1.00BP to 2.74%.




4. Shanghai International Energy Trading Center: On October 31, the main crude oil futures contract 2312 closed at 653.8 yuan/barrel, down 12.5 yuan or 1.88%. All contracts were sold 249491 lots, and the position increased by 4963 lots to 60200 lots. The main contract transactions were 200197, and the position increased by 3956 to 29626.




5. Central Bank: On October 31st, a 612 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a winning interest rate of 1.8%, which was the same as before. Due to the expiration of a 7-day reverse repurchase of 593 billion yuan on the same day, a net investment of 19 billion yuan was achieved.




6. Shibor: Overnight at 1.7500%, up 5.50 basis points. The 7-day price was 1.9650%, down 7.60 basis points. Reported at 2.4150% in three months, up 0.90 basis points.




7. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 7.3176 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 0.0055%, and the central parity rate of the RMB was 7.1779, down 0.0000%. NDF reports 7.2185 for the first month, 7.230 for the sixth month, 7.1310 for the first year, and 7.0110 for the second year.




8. Shanghai Environment Exchange: On October 31st, the trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota listing agreement was 450111 tons, with a trading volume of 34.9416 million yuan, and the closing price was 78.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9%.




abroad




9. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.53% to 30858.85. The South Korean KOSPI index fell 1.41% to 2277.99 points.




10. US stocks: The Dow closed 0.38% higher at 33052.87 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.48% to close at 12851.24 points; The S&P 500 closed up 0.65% at 4193.80.




11. Europe: The FTSE 100 in the UK closed 0.08% lower at 7321.72 points; The German DAX30 closed up 0.64% at 14810.34 points; France CAC40 closed up 0.87% at 6884.51 points.




12. Gold: COMEX December gold futures settled 0.56% lower at $1994.3 per ounce.




13. Crude oil: WTI's December crude oil futures settlement price closed 1.57% lower at $81.02 per barrel; Brent December crude oil futures closed 0.05% lower at $87.41 per barrel.




14. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index: fell 2.68% to 1459 points.




·Low Earth Orbit Satellites Launch 'Heaven Earth Integration'·




Minsheng Securities: Low orbit satellites refer to satellites within a range of 400 to 2000 kilometers above the ground, which are currently the most launched satellites. There are a total of 6718 satellites worldwide, of which low orbit satellites account for about 88.4%. Building a high-level network infrastructure for ubiquitous connectivity, satellite internet is an important part of it. Tasks include conducting in orbit verification such as large-scale global connectivity, laying the foundation for exploring the construction of medium orbit communication satellite constellations. Considering the safe operation of satellites and signal interference between satellites, as well as the resulting environmental issues such as a large amount of space debris and blurring of the universe's view, the number of space satellites will be limited internationally in the future. This also means that low Earth orbit resources are limited.




Xinda Securities: In 2022, the global aerospace industry reached approximately $384 billion, with the satellite industry reaching $281.1 billion. With the rapid advancement of technology and the intensification of the game between major countries, the application scenarios of satellites in fields such as communication, navigation, and remote sensing are also undergoing fierce changes. They are not only the 'arena' of major country technology, but also related to national security, and may become a new engine for driving national economic growth. It is expected that with the construction of low orbit satellite internet and the commercial operation of remote sensing satellites, China's satellite industry is expected to usher in a golden period of development.




Shanghai Securities: Compared to high orbit satellites, low orbit satellite communication systems have advantages such as low propagation loss and low latency. Low orbit satellite communication systems achieve coverage of target areas by forming a large number of satellites into constellations; High orbit communication satellites are located in geostationary orbit or tilted geosynchronous orbit, with a fixed coverage area and a small number of satellites required. However, their long distance from the ground results in high latency. In addition, high orbit satellites also require greater mobile phone transmission power to support. Therefore, considering the daily application scenarios of mobile phones, satellite mobile communication systems developed based on low orbit satellite systems have more practical prospects.




Zhejiang Securities: In 2022, the global satellite manufacturing industry revenue was 15.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 5.6% of the total revenue of the satellite industry, a year-on-year increase of 15


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