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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-12-04

Date: 2023-12-04
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Financial attention

Macroeconomics


Shanghai should take this as its main focus and coordinate the work of driving economic and social development in all aspects. We need to strengthen linkage with the Yangtze River Delta region and better leverage its radiating and driving role. To comprehensively deepen reform and opening up from a higher starting point, enhance development momentum and competitiveness.


2. Li Yunze, Director of the State Administration for Financial Regulation: We will resolutely fight a tough and protracted battle, with a focus on accelerating the reform and insurance transformation of small and medium-sized financial institutions. Fully leverage professional advantages, strengthen guidance and coordination, promote the development of risk disposal plans for 'one province, one policy', 'one industry, one policy', and 'one company, one policy', and avoid a 'one size fits all' approach.


3. Haikou Customs: In the first 11 months, Haikou Customs supervised a total of 40.7 billion yuan in duty-free shopping on outlying islands, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%. The number of duty-free shoppers reached 6.23 million, an increase of 59.6%. The number of duty-free shopping items was 47.99 million, an increase of 4.5%.




4. The World Bank announced that it will increase financing support for addressing climate change, with a significant increase in the proportion of funding allocated for climate change projects in the next fiscal year. The amount allocated for climate change related projects will be increased to 45%. According to the increased proportion, there will be over 40 billion US dollars invested in the field of addressing climate change in this fiscal year, about 9 billion US dollars more than before.


Stock market inventory


1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.06% to 3031.64 points, down 0.31% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 0.07% at 9720.57 points, down 1.21% for the week; The ChiNext Index rose 0.19% to close at 1926.28 points, down 0.60% for the week.


2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed down 1.25% at 16830.30 points, down 4.15% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 1.76% at 3830.92 points, down 4.82% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed down 1.64% at 5761.73 points, down 4.63% for the week.


3. CITIC Securities: In December, investors' confidence in the economy and market is expected to reach a turning point. It is expected that there will be an adjustment in fund behavior by the end of the year, and the market ecology is expected to improve. Seize the current allocation opportunity, continue to adhere to the second stage allocation strategy, and increase allocation for oversold growth. From the perspective of boosting confidence, the current economic fundamentals are still unstable, and it is expected that intensive policy measures will improve pessimistic economic expectations. From the changes in financial behavior, the atmosphere of pure speculation is expected to cool down, and there are signs of high and low active funds. The pressure of foreign capital outflow has been largely released, and it is expected to ease in stages before and after Christmas.


4. China International Capital Corporation (CICC): Recently, overseas pressure has eased, and in this context, there has been a short-term deviation between the trend of the RMB exchange rate and the performance of the stock market. Especially, the overall performance of the index and sectors with higher economic relevance in the stock market is weak, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 have rebounded to near the low point in October this week. Looking ahead, as the current time point approaches the policy window period, it is not advisable to be pessimistic about the future performance. As the market rebounds to near the previous low point, the market valuation once again drops to historical extreme levels. The current position already implies many pessimistic expectations, and the medium-term opportunities in the A-share market still outweigh the risks.


5. Haitong Securities: Since late October, US bond rates have declined, while US stocks have performed strongly, while A/H stocks have performed relatively weakly, especially with significant adjustments in the real estate chain. Behind the adjustment of the real estate chain is the insufficient quality of real estate data in the 'nine gold and ten silver' market, and behind the recovery of the pharmaceutical and electronic markets is the gradual reversal of fundamental expectations. The current valuation of A-shares is at a historic low, and we should follow the positive policies of the important meeting in December. The industry attaches great importance to big finance, pharmaceuticals, and technology.


6. China Fund News: Since the first batch of 5 products were approved and established, the Enhanced Strategy ETF products have celebrated their second anniversary, and the number of related product issuances has continued to grow. From the perspective of performance, nearly 80% of the products have achieved positive excess returns since their establishment. However, from the perspective of scale data, the overall growth rate is not very significant, and almost all products are facing the problem of shrinkage.


7. Juguang Technology: The company has recently received an official appointment letter from a well-known European automotive Tier 1 customer for the LiDAR line spot emission module project. The launch module of this designated project is expected to be mass-produced in the first half of 2025 and is currently in the development and validation stage, with continuous delivery of research and development samples. The estimated demand for this designated project during its lifecycle is about 500000 sets.


8. Tianqi Model: The controlling shareholder, actual controller, and their concerted action parties of the company are planning the transfer of control rights. The total number of shares to be transferred is 162 million, which is expected to account for 17.18% of the total share capital of the company.


9. Surprise Home: In view of the ongoing separation of shareholder Alibaba Network, it is proposed that the newly established entity Hangzhou Haoyue will inherit the shares of Surprise Home it holds. Alibaba Network plans to transfer its 9.18% stake in Qiaozhijia to Hangzhou Haoyue through an agreement. The transfer price is 3.55 yuan per share, and the total transfer price of the shares is 2.048 billion yuan.


10. New stock subscription: This week, a total of 3 new stock subscriptions were made, including 1 on the Shanghai Main Board and 2 on the ChiNext Board, namely Sobao Protein, Fengmao Shares, and Anpeilong.


11. Restricted shares lifted: This week, a total of 74 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 6.088 billion shares lifted and a market value of 70.731 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Lianhong Xinke ranked first on the lifting ban list with 19.168 billion yuan, while Ailisi and Zhaolong Interconnect ranked second and third with 9.364 billion yuan and 5.989 billion yuan respectively.


Industry observation


1. Li Yunze, Director of the State Administration for Financial Regulation: Carry out the 'reform, abolishment, and interpretation' of regulations and policies, keep pace with the times, improve prudential regulatory rules, and tighten the 'iron fence' of the system. Accelerate the construction of regulatory big data platforms, fully utilize technological means, and quickly and effectively identify and accurately lock in financial risks. At the same time, we will also adhere to an inward approach, strengthen the supervision of supervision, and effectively achieve the goal of strengthening our own strength.


2. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: At present, the application for high standard farmland construction projects of additional treasury bond has been reviewed and will be issued to the local government in the near future, becoming the first batch of landing projects of additional treasury bond. This high standard farmland construction project with additional treasury bond will also give priority to supporting the construction of high standard farmland in Northeast China, and include the disaster stricken areas in Beijing Tianjin Hebei into the key support scope, so as to improve farmland disaster prevention, mitigation and relief capacity.


3. China Quality Association: The user satisfaction evaluation result of China's new energy vehicle industry in 2023 was 80 points, a year-on-year decrease of 1 point. This is also the first time in nearly nine years that user satisfaction in China's new energy vehicle industry has decreased. The decline in brand image and perceived quality is the main reason for the decrease in user satisfaction this time.


4. Pengpai News: The brine channel cuts through the land, and the waste residue and soil are piled up at will. The leakage of abandoned salt fields is obvious, and problems such as large-scale production, excessive exploitation of water resources, and encroachment on grasslands are frequent. The inspection of the Qaidam Basin, known for its 'rich potassium world,' found that there are situations of illegal mining, illegal water intake, and illegal land occupation in the area, which not only bring ecological problems and hidden dangers, but also make the situation of potassium salt follow-up protection increasingly severe.


5. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Since the beginning of this year, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry has maintained a good development trend and entered a critical period of accelerated development. From January to November, China produced a total of 5261 fuel cell vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 35%. In terms of technology, the cost of fuel cell systems has decreased to 3000 yuan per kilowatt, which is 80% lower than in 2020.


6. Yang Hongxin, Chairman of Honeycomb Energy: In the context of a surplus in the entire industry, the lithium battery industry is showing a dual trend of ice and fire. Some lithium battery companies have more orders, while others have fewer orders. Equipment companies are being driven by cyclical impacts, and battery and material companies have decent orders, but poor profits. According to the current bidding situation, the price of energy storage cells continues to hit a new low. The crisis of overcapacity will continue at least until 2025.


7. Xu Zongben, Chinese Academy of Sciences: As a new trend in the development of artificial intelligence, the revolutionary impact of large models on scientific research paradigms, production methods, and industrial models cannot be underestimated. Investing in large model research is an inevitable choice. Large scale model research is still considered engineering and far from scientific research.


Financial data


1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1400, a decrease of 0.1262%, and a weekly increase of 0.1803%; The median price of the Chinese yuan was 7.1104, down 0.1211%, and up 0.0661% for the week.


2. New Third Board: Last week, 7 new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 2.318 billion yuan, an increase of 54.36% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6273. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 54.676 billion yuan.




3. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.82% to 36245.50 points, up 2.42% for the week; The S&P 500 index rose 0.59% to 4594.63 points, up 0.77% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 0.55% to 14305.03 points, up 0.38% for the week.


4. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 1.12% to 16397.52 points, up 2.3% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 0.48% to 7346.15 points, up 0.73% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 1.01% to close at 7529.35 points, up 0.55% for the week.


5. Gold: Last Friday, the settlement price of COMEX December gold futures rose 1.58% to $2089.7 per ounce, setting a new historical high for the closing of major contracts.


6. Crude oil: Last Friday, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures fell 2.49% to $74.07 per barrel, a decrease of 1.94% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 2.45% lower at $78.88 per barrel, down 2% for the week.


·Why is 'colored' more 'outstanding'·


At the macro level, Minsheng Securities: The Federal Reserve has issued a 'dove like' statement, stating that expectations of an end to interest rate hikes are heating up. The Federal Reserve is expected to end this round of interest rate hikes in 2023 and start a rate reduction cycle in mid-2024. The reversal of monetary policy may be an important catalyst for the marginal turning point of US bonds and the US dollar. The opening of interest rate cuts and the entry of the US dollar into a weak channel can easily stimulate the upward trend of non-ferrous metal prices priced in US dollars. Overseas recession sentiment is evident, with the 10-year US Treasury yield continuing to decline, domestic and foreign precious metal prices rising month on month, and it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate upwards in the future. The expectation of loose overseas interest rates combined with recession expectations makes gold prices easy to rise but difficult to fall.


Dongwu Securities: Recently, the central bank released a report on the implementation of monetary policy for the third quarter of 2023, continuing to maintain a stable and loose monetary policy, boosting domestic macroeconomic sentiment. Domestic demand has bottomed out, while overseas demand has recovered, jointly promoting the growth of non-ferrous consumption. The stable development of the Chinese economy is the cornerstone of the growth of commodity consumption in 2024. It is expected that active fiscal policies in 2024 will be supplemented by reasonable and sufficient liquidity to boost stable growth. China will continue its policy of stable growth, and domestic and foreign consumption will resonate with each other, ensuring the consumption of non-ferrous metals. Be optimistic about the long-term allocation opportunities that the anti globalization process will bring to precious metals.


Haitong International: In terms of industrial metals, the interest rate hike process may come to an end, and domestic macro sentiment is good, with a bullish outlook on the upward trend of metal prices. The shortage of copper supply has helped copper prices rise month on month, and there are also concerns about long-term supply, which has provided good support for copper prices; Aluminum supply is rigid, driven by multi-point demand, and there is no solution gap to boost industry profits. In terms of energy metals, demand is still insufficient, and there is a strong cyclical wait-and-see sentiment. Energy metals continue to seek the bottom. On the supply side of cobalt, production is relatively stable, and there is a certain accumulation of inventory in society. However, the pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and cobalt prices continue to be under pressure. In terms of precious metals, the current supply shortage of silver is forming an upward force, and monetary policy is shifting towards amplifying upward elasticity. The green economy is driving the growth of industrial demand for silver, and the growth of photovoltaic silver is strong.


CITIC Construction Investment: Looking ahead to 2024, the US and Europe interest rate hike cycle has ended, economic expectations have improved, and demand for industrial replenishment has rebounded. At the same time, the global green energy revolution is still ongoing, and the demand for related non-ferrous metals is increasing. On the supply side, rigid constraints such as the prevalence of resource protectionism, insufficient capital expenditures, and supply bottlenecks make it impossible for supply to meet consumption. The transformation of new and old energy sources and the resonance of internal and external consumption, coupled with limited raw material supply, are driving prices more clearly, and the sea and stars of the non-ferrous industry are coming. Gold enters trading on the right side, and it is recommended to focus on precious metal targets with clear production growth.


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