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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-12-11

Date: 2023-12-11
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Financial attention

Macroeconomics




1. Development and Reform Commission: The Chinese economy is recovering and has a bright future for development. Since 2023, the Chinese economy has overcome difficulties and challenges, withstood downward pressure, and made a tortuous progress; Economic development still has many favorable conditions and supporting factors, and its contribution to global economic growth will reach one-third this year; The Chinese economy has strong resilience, ample potential, and broad room for maneuver. The long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, and the market expectations and development confidence of private enterprises have further improved.




2. The Ministry of Finance has issued the draft of the Measures for the Administration of Domestic Investment of the National Social Security Fund (for soliciting opinions). The maximum investment ratio of social security funds in stock and equity assets can reach 40% and 30% respectively; Moderately reduce the upper limit of social security fund management fees and custody fees, with an annual management fee rate of no more than 0.8% for stock products and no more than 0.3% for bond products.




3. China Railway Group: From January to November, a total of 16145 China Europe freight trains were operated, sending 1.749 million TEUs of goods, an increase of 7% and 19% year-on-year, respectively. The freight volume has exceeded the total volume of 2022.




4. Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the US economy will grow by 2.1% in 2024, once again exceeding market expectations. The likelihood of the US falling into a recession in the next 12 months is much lower than consensus expectations, at only 15%.




5. Caixin News Agency: Traders are increasing their bets on the level of monetary easing by the European Central Bank in 2024. It is expected that the central bank will cut interest rates by 150 basis points next year, which is the largest rate cut reflected so far in this cycle, with the first rate cut as early as March.




6. Copernicus Climate Change Service: November 2023 was the hottest November on record worldwide, with an average surface temperature of 14.22 degrees Celsius, 0.32 degrees Celsius higher than the previous record of the hottest November 2020; The average temperature from January to November also broke records, and 2023 will become the hottest year on record.




Stock market inventory




1. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2968.93 points, down 0.11%, with a transaction volume of 336.219 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9533.25 points, up 0.66%, with a transaction volume of 480.82 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 1881.94 points, up 0.58%, with a transaction volume of 206.776 billion yuan. Overall, individual stocks rose more than fell, with over 3200 stocks in the city rising. The transaction volume between the two markets was 817 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. On the market, sectors such as lithium mines, pork, mobile games, and media saw the highest gains, while sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, computing power leasing, port shipping, and 6G saw the highest declines. Northbound funds bought a net of 2.342 billion yuan throughout the day, with Shanghai Stock Connect buying a net of 109 million yuan and Shenzhen Stock Connect buying a net of 2.233 billion yuan.




2. On Wednesday, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.83% to close at 16463.26 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.76% to close at 3747.58 points. The state-owned enterprise index rose 0.97% to 5663.92 points. The food, science and technology stocks, semiconductors, leasing, aviation and other industries saw the highest growth, with Zhihu rising over 11% and Lenovo Group rising over 10%; The beverage, assisted reproductive, intelligent healthcare, retail and other industries have experienced the largest decline. Southbound funds net bought HKD 5.61 billion. Among them, the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought HKD 2.667 billion, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net bought HKD 2.944 billion.




3. As of December 6th, there were 234 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with no new additions on that day. The total market value is 377.625 billion yuan, with a transaction amount of 14.624 billion yuan.




4. Financing balance of the two markets: As of December 5th, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported to be 834.215 billion yuan, an increase of 109 million yuan from the previous trading day; The financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported to be 758.595 billion yuan, a decrease of 500 million yuan from the previous trading day; The total amount of the two cities is 1592.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 391 million yuan from the previous trading day.




5. As of the end of the third quarter, the total scale of institutional asset management business was about 67.60 trillion yuan, including 27.48 trillion yuan for public funds, 6.12 trillion yuan for private asset management business of securities companies and their subsidiaries, 6.58 trillion yuan for private asset management business of fund management companies and their subsidiaries, approximately 286.917 billion yuan for private asset management business of futures companies and their subsidiaries, and 20.58 trillion yuan for private funds.




6. China Securities Network: 'Zero tolerance' to crack down on various chaos in the capital market, making regulation truly 'thorny'; The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will continue to maintain a 'strict tone' in capital market regulation, concentrate efforts on punishing malicious behaviors such as illegal reduction of holdings and financial fraud, strengthen the main responsibility of listed companies, and improve the quality of listed companies.




7. Private equity ranking website: In November, a total of 964 private equity securities products were registered, an increase of 161.95% compared to the previous month. The number of registered securities reached a second highest in nearly half a year, and stock strategy remains a top priority (655); There are only 20 registered bond strategies and 393 quantitative private equity securities products.




8. Shanghai Stock Exchange News: Recently, 49 A-share listed companies have conducted stock repurchase operations. As the number of A-share repurchase companies continues to increase, foreign institutions' confidence in A-shares is gradually recovering. Cancellation based repurchase is conducive to reducing the circulating share of stocks, increasing earnings per share, and more conducive to boosting confidence in global capital layout in A-shares.




9. Hong Kong Stock Exchange: The total market value of the securities market was HKD 31.1 trillion at the end of November, an increase of 1% compared to the previous month. The average daily transaction amounts for November 2023 and the first eleven months were HKD 95.6 billion and HKD 105.6 billion, respectively. The average daily transaction amount of exchange traded funds in the first eleven months was 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%.




10. Securities Daily: Since the fourth quarter, the Hong Kong IPO market has continued to recover, with three new stocks listed on the market on December 5th alone. At the same time, new stock listings at the end of the year were relatively hot, with nearly a hundred companies queuing up to submit their financial statements. It is expected that a group of companies will go public intensively at the end of the year and in the first quarter of next year.




11. China Securities Network: It is reported that ByteDance started a new round of repo with $160, but the IPO plan has not yet been determined, and the corresponding valuation is about $268 billion, only 67% of Tencent's, down about 10% from last September's repo valuation. At present, ByteDance has not responded.




12. Changan Automobile: In November, car sales reached 227300 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.01%. Among them, the sales of domestic brand new energy vehicles reached 50598, an increase of 52.73% year-on-year.




13. BYD: The chairman proposes to repurchase a portion of the company's A-shares for 200 million yuan. The repurchased shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans, equity incentive plans, or reducing registered capital.




14. ST Tongda: The company's stock has accumulated a 48% increase for 8 consecutive trading days, and we will verify any abnormal stock trading situations. The stock will be suspended from trading starting from December 7, 2023, and is expected to be suspended for no more than 5 trading days.




15. Wanda Film: Mr. Wang Jianlin, the actual controller of the company, intends to transfer his total 51% equity in the company to Shanghai Ruyi Investment Management Co., Ltd.




16. Angli Education (4 consecutive boards): The company does not have any significant information that should be disclosed but has not been disclosed. In strict accordance with the relevant requirements of the double reduction policy, it has completely divested itself of subject training business in the compulsory education stage and transitioned to non subject quality and literacy. At present, non disciplinary training also belongs to the strongly regulated industry, and the company will pay attention to relevant policy dynamics.




Industry observation




1. The National Development and Reform Commission: By 2027, a preliminary coal mine capacity reserve system will be established, and a batch of capacity reserve coal mine projects will be approved and constructed in an orderly manner, forming a certain scale of dispatchable coal capacity reserves. By 2030, the capacity reserve system will be further improved and perfected, striving to form a dispatchable capacity reserve of 300 million tons per year. The national coal supply guarantee capacity will be significantly enhanced, and the supply elasticity and resilience will continue to improve.




2. People's Daily: Simeglutide Injection was originally a prescription drug for reducing blood sugar, but it has been distorted into a 'miracle weight loss drug' and has been selling well on e-commerce platforms. Prescription drug e-commerce platforms should not prescribe excessively and indulge hypoglycemic drugs for weight loss, which is not conducive to patient health; This chain of interests involves multiple links. A comprehensive inspection and gradual repair are necessary to effectively curb chaos.




3. Xinhua News Agency: On December 6th, the world's first fourth generation nuclear power plant was put into commercial operation, marking China's leading position in fourth generation nuclear power technology. The nuclear power plant is located in Rongcheng, Shandong, and is jointly constructed by China Huaneng, Tsinghua University, and China National Nuclear Corporation.




4. Zhang Ying, Director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology: From January to October, the production of new energy vehicles in Shanghai was 1.03 million, accounting for 14% of the national total. The scale of the integrated circuit industry exceeded 380 billion yuan, accounting for about 25% of the national total. Shanghai's 'car core linkage' has a good foundation and has achieved certain results in terminal application traction.




5. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch: During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is expected that the annual growth rate of global lithium production and consumption will be about 30%. The demand for lithium in the fields of new energy vehicles and energy storage will continue to grow, and it is not ruled out that there may be a slowdown in growth at some stage. However, the growth of consumer lithium batteries is stable.




6. Canalys: In the third quarter, due to the impact of the macroeconomic environment, the smartphone market in Southeast Asia declined by 4% to 23 million units. However, the decline has narrowed to single digits and the market is gradually recovering.




7. TrendForce: In the third quarter, the global top ten wafer foundry output increased by 7.9% month on month, and will continue to rise in the fourth quarter. The inventory of terminal and IC customers has gradually been digested to a relatively healthy level, driving the emergence of urgent orders for smartphone and laptop related components in the third quarter. However, high inflation risks still exist, and the short-term market situation is still unclear. Therefore, this wave of stocking is only carried out through urgent orders.




8. Chilean Customs: In November, exports of lithium carbonate to China reached 13592 tons, a decrease of 19.1% compared to the previous month. The average price of lithium carbonate exported to China was 19992.7 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 5.0% compared to the previous month.




Financial data




domestic




1. Hong Kong Monetary Authority: The Ministry of Finance will issue 10 billion yuan of treasury bond in Hong Kong. This time, it will issue 3 billion yuan of treasury bond in 2025, 3 billion yuan of treasury bond in 2026 and 4 billion yuan of treasury bond in 2028. This year, the Ministry of Finance has increased the scale of issuing RMB treasury bond in Hong Kong to 50 billion yuan.




2. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: The trading margin standard for the 2412 contract of thermal coal futures is 50%, with a 10% limit up or down. The maximum number of open positions for non futures company members or customers in a single day is 20 lots; Adjust the minimum opening order quantity and implementation of trading limits for urea futures contracts.




3. Shanghai Futures Exchange: Adjusted the membership limit ratio of futures companies, with a membership limit ratio of 35% for 55 A-class futures companies in the 2023 Classification Results of Futures Companies; The membership limit ratio for three futures companies that have been adjusted from Class A to Class B and below has been restored from 35% to 25%, and will be implemented from January 1, 2024.




4. Guangzhou Futures Exchange: The 2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures has entered the month before delivery. Starting from the settlement on the 14th trading day of December, the position limit will be reduced to 1000 lots. From the settlement on the last trading day of December, the position limit for unit customers will be reduced to 300 lots, and individual customers will not be allowed to enter the delivery month.




5. New Third Board: On December 6th, a total of 6266 companies were listed, a decrease of 1 company on the same day, with a transaction amount of 374 million. The Third Board Component Index closed at 898.60, up 0.16%, with a transaction volume of 207 million yuan.




6. Domestic commodity futures: As of the afternoon close on December 6th, there were mixed ups and downs, with Shanghai tin, styrene, and other commodities up more than 2%, and iron ore, coking coal, coke, and other commodities up more than 1%; Palm oil fell more than 3%, while vegetable oil, apples, and lithium carbonate fell more than 2%.




7. Treasury bond: On December 6, the main contract TS2403 of two-year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to 100.878; The main contract of five-year treasury bond bond futures TF2403 declined 0.04% to 101.745; The main contract T2403 of 10-year treasury bond bond futures was stable at 101.970. The 10-year treasury bond bond interest rate rose 0.75BP to 2.67%; The 10-year China Development Bank bond interest rate rose by 0.75 basis points to 2.78%.




8. Shanghai International Energy Trading Center: On December 6th, the main crude oil futures contract 2401 closed at 554.1 yuan/barrel, down 3.2 yuan or 0.57%. The total number of contracts traded was 320400, and the position decreased by 326 to 67242. The main contract sold 241029 lots, and the position decreased by 783 lots to 33694 lots.




9. Central Bank: On December 6th, a 240 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a winning bid interest rate of 1.80%, unchanged from before. Due to the expiration of a 7-day reverse repurchase period of 438 billion yuan, a net withdrawal of 19.8 billion yuan was achieved.




10. Shibor: Overnight reported 1.6060%, down 10.80 basis points. The 7-day report was 1.7630%, down 5.30 basis points. Three month report of 2.5370%, up 0.40 basis points.




11. RMB: The onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.1571, a decrease of 0.2114%, and the middle price of the RMB was at 7.1140, a decrease of 0.0183%. NDF: 3-month report 7.0785, 6-month report 7.0435, 1-year report 6.9785, 2-year report 6.8585.




12. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On December 6th, the trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota listing agreement was 77050 tons, with a transaction amount of 5.5142 million yuan. The closing price was 70.21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%.




abroad




13. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 2.04% to 33445.90 points. The South Korean KOSPI index rose 0.04% to 2495.38 points.




14. US stocks: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.19% at 36054.43 points; The Nasdaq closed down 0.58% at 14146.71 points; The S&P 500 closed down 0.39% at 4549.34 points.




15. Europe: The FTSE 100 in the UK rose 0.34% to close at 7515.38 points; The German DAX30 closed up 0.75% at 16656.44 points; France CAC40 rose 0.66% to close at 7435.99 points.




16. Gold: COMEX February gold futures rose 0.57% to $2047.9 per ounce.




17. Crude oil: WTI January crude oil futures closed 4.07% lower at $69.38 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for February closed down 3.76% at $74.30 per barrel.




18. The Baltic Dry Index: fell 9.39% to 2848 points.




·Is lithium carbonate accelerating bottoming out·




Anxin Securities: The current situation of short-term oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is still maintained, and market sentiment remains pessimistic, dragging down the focus of lithium carbonate quotations and transactions. On the supply side, the domestic salt lake large factories are expected to release 8000 tons of lithium carbonate, which has a significant increase in the subsequent market circulation volume. In addition, the impact of factors such as the gradual arrival of overseas imported lithium salts at ports still puts pressure on the supply side. On the demand side, some large manufacturers have reduced their orders due to the presence of battery cell factories, resulting in limited overall acceptance of lithium salts. As a result, the willingness to purchase lithium carbonate tends to be negative due to the downward trend in prices. It is expected that short-term prices will continue to decline.




Huaxi Securities: Some upstream lithium salt enterprises that purchase lithium mines with inverted costs are based on sales and have no production plans beyond long-term orders. Most upstream lithium salt enterprises prioritize stable shipments based on long-term orders. The key to stabilizing lithium prices lies in downstream demand. Currently, positive electrode material companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude during the price downturn cycle


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