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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-12-18

Date: 2023-12-18
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Financial attention

Macroeconomics




1. Medium disease control: COVID-19 variant JN. 1 is a sub branch of BA. 2.86. After entering November, the global proportion growth rate of the BA. 286 variant, especially the JN.1 sub branch, has significantly accelerated and has become one of the dominant epidemic strains in some countries. The monitoring results of COVID-19 variants in China show that since the first imported case of BA.2.86 variant was reported on August 31, 160 BA.2.86 and its sub branch sequences have been reported nationwide, and no severe or critical cases have been found. At present, the public health risk of this variant is relatively low in China.




2. Yu Yongding of the Academy of Social Sciences: The ratio of US treasury bond to GDP will continue to rise, which means that the US overseas net debt will continue to deteriorate over time. In view of the low coupon interest rate of US treasury bond and the consequences of the sharp expansion of US overseas net debt, it is necessary for China to reduce its holdings of US treasury bond in an orderly manner. Now we may face the crisis before 2008 again. The successive downgrades of the US sovereign credit rating by the three major international credit rating agencies are not unfounded concerns.




3. China News Agency: At 15:00 Beijing time on December 17th, the Hyperbolic 1 commercial carrier rocket was successfully launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in China. This mission is the sixth flight of the rocket. The Di Er 1 optical remote sensing satellite carried this time is jointly developed by Beijing Ziwei Yutong Technology Co., Ltd. and Beijing Aerospace Yuxing Technology Co., Ltd. After entering orbit, satellite platform technology verification work will be carried out.




4. Health Commission: If it is a flu infection, it often presents as an acute course, with most symptoms disappearing within 3-5 days of onset and the vast majority recovering within 1 week. The vast majority of pneumonia caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection is mild, with very few developing into severe cases. After standardized treatment, it generally recovers well and does not cause irreversible damage to children's lungs or leave sequelae. The course of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia is generally 2-4 weeks. Some children may also experience multiple pathogens such as influenza virus and mycoplasma, which can lead to a longer course of infection.




5. Health Commission: Recently, the overall diagnosis and treatment volume of respiratory diseases in outpatient and emergency departments of medical institutions across the country has shown a downward trend. Grassroots fever clinics and clinics account for approximately 44% of the total number of fever clinics and clinics in medical institutions nationwide, effectively meeting the medical needs of patients. We need to continuously strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the diagnosis and treatment of respiratory diseases, and strengthen the overall allocation of medical resources.




6. The Labour and Welfare Bureau of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government: In the first 11 months, over 200000 applications were received for various talent entry programs in Hong Kong, nearly four times the number of applications in 2022. During the same period, over 81000 people have arrived in Hong Kong, far exceeding the goal of introducing at least 35000 talents annually.




Stock market inventory




1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.56% at 2942.56 points, down 0.91% for the week; The Shenzhen Component Index closed down 0.35% at 9385.33 points, down 1.76% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed down 0.65% at 1848.50 points, down 2.31% for the week.




2. Last Friday, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.38% to 16792.19 points, up 2.80% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 2.22% to close at 3780.69 points, or 2.02% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index rose 2.28% to 5700.39 points, up 1.83% for the week.




3. CITIC Securities: There is significant room for upward adjustment in the market's expectations of the economy relative to policy goals. In the short term, A-shares are influenced by investor mentality and fund behavior, and are desensitized to positive policy changes. The market clearance process is slow, and as adjustments approach the extreme region, the turning point of the market and confidence at the end of the year and the beginning of the year will be approaching. Actively grasp the market situation after the phased clearance of selling positions, Continuing to increase the allocation of technology and pharmaceutical sectors due to market fluctuations at emotional lows.




4. Guohai Securities: The supply side of humanoid robots is the first to prosper. Overseas benchmark enterprises promote product iteration and commercialization implementation; Chinese companies are actively entering the humanoid robot industry and anticipate the participation of potential heavyweight players in the future, which may bring about a new wave of industrial development. Intelligent manufacturing may become a field for large-scale application of humanoid robots, and home services are one of the most promising application scenarios. In 2024, humanoid robots may usher in the first year of large-scale commercialization.




5. Guolian Securities: The gaming industry still focuses on reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the application of AI. 2D content generation has been widely used in game development, distribution, and other processes; The AI generation of 3D images and videos is still immature, but with the rapid iteration of new tools such as Moonvalley and Pika, the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase. What has more room for imagination is to create disruptive gaming experiences through AI.




6. Aoya Group: Signed a "Computing Power Server Procurement Contract" with supplier Shenzhen Runxin Supply Chain Co., Ltd., intending to purchase 128 high-performance computing servers and supporting software and hardware embedded with NVIDIA GPU chips, with a contract amount of 435 million yuan.




7. Fengyu Building: Recently received a bid notification, with a winning bid price of 131 million yuan. This bid is for the company to expand its digital new cultural and tourism business in the process of vigorously promoting urban renewal strategy in the country. We will integrate VR/AR/MR related products and technologies around the theme of the "24 solar terms" in Huainan, create a new type of cultural and tourism consumption scenario, and adopt the "EPC+O" immersive operation model to extend to content operation services.




8. ST Nanwei: Over 5% of the company's shareholders, Xu Dong, illegally reduced their holdings of 0.37% of the company's shares during the investigation period. The Jiangsu Securities Regulatory Bureau has decided to take regulatory measures to order Xu Dong to make corrections and record it in the integrity records of the securities and futures market. Xu Dong voluntarily terminated the share reduction plan in advance.




9. New stock subscription: This week, a total of 5 new stock subscriptions were made, including 1 on the Shanghai Main Board, 1 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, 2 on the Growth Enterprise Board, and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, namely Dinglong Technology, Laisai Laser, Chenyi Intelligence, Dali Kepu, and Ailuo Energy.




10. Restricted shares lifted: This week, a total of 97 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 3.089 billion shares lifted and a market value of 77.778 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Zhongwei Group ranked first on the lifting list with 16.931 billion yuan, while Yuanjie Technology and Yandong Microelectronics ranked second and third with 6.658 billion yuan and 6.15 billion yuan respectively.




Industry observation




1. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council: Announces the Regulations on the Supervision and Administration of Non Bank Payment Institutions, which will come into effect on May 1, 2024. The focus has been on four aspects, including clarifying the definition and establishment permit of non bank payment institutions, improving payment business rules, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of users, and clarifying regulatory responsibilities and legal responsibilities. It also clarifies the requirements for payment business management, stipulating that non bank payment institutions should establish sound business management systems, possess business systems, facilities, and technologies that meet the requirements, and ensure the continuity, security, and traceability of payment business. Non bank payment institutions are not allowed to misappropriate, occupy, or borrow reserve funds to prevent risks in the non bank payment industry.




2. China Coal Industry Association: In November, domestic heating coal consumption entered the peak season, and coal demand grew rapidly. Production of raw coal reached 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a growth rate 0.8 percentage points faster than in October. From January to November, the production of raw coal reached 4.24 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. At the end of November, the coal storage of thermal power plants in China exceeded 200 million tons, an increase of about 6 million tons from the end of October and about 28 million tons year-on-year. Coal storage can be used for about 33 days.




3. First Financial: Since the beginning of this year, at least 10 Chinese pharmaceutical companies have reached authorized cooperation agreements with their ADCs (antibody conjugated drugs). In addition to Pfizer, there are also multinational pharmaceutical companies such as Weicai, BioNtech, GSK, and AstraZeneca. Although domestic ADC started relatively late, with increasing domestic policy support, domestic ADC technology will quickly gain widespread recognition from foreign pharmaceutical companies.




4. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In response to weather conditions such as heavy snowfall, freezing rain, and cold waves in some areas, we will make every effort to provide emergency communication support for responding to low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing disasters. As of 8:00 am on December 17th, the information and communication industry in China has deployed a total of 76000 security personnel, 34000 emergency vehicles, 45000 power generators, 1136 satellite phones, and 190 million warning messages.




5. The Ministry of Education has deployed pilot projects for the construction of artificial intelligence assisted teacher teams since 2018. Currently, China has established more than 7000 intelligent classrooms in 103 pilot units for the construction of artificial intelligence assisted teacher teams, utilizing artificial intelligence to enhance the abilities of teachers in primary, secondary, and tertiary levels.




6. Fujian Province: In November, the export scale of Fujian Province exceeded 110 billion yuan for the first time this year, reaching 114.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1% compared to the same period last year, and has maintained positive growth for three consecutive months.




7. Korean Automobile Industry Association: In November, the sales of hybrid vehicles produced in South Korea reached 309.23 million units, marking the first time this year that the monthly sales exceeded 30000 units. The sales of hybrid models from January to November also reached a historic high, reaching 25708700 units, a year-on-year surge of 53.4%. The sales of diesel vehicles in the first 11 months sharply decreased by 6.9% year-on-year, to 252051 units. The proportion of electric vehicles decreased by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 7.9%.




8. CCTV Finance: The Japanese government plans to invest 3 trillion yen (approximately 150 billion yuan) within 15 years to promote the popularization of hydrogen energy. As of November, Japan has a total of 161 hydrogen refueling stations, of which approximately one-third are concentrated in the metropolitan area. The investment funds will be used to subsidize the price difference between hydrogen energy and other fuels due to factors such as production costs.




9. Panama Canal Authority: Considering that October this year is the "driest month" in the history of the canal, it has been decided to gradually reduce the daily number of ships passing through. However, due to the fact that the drought situation in November is not as severe as in October, the daily number of ships passing through will be increased from the current 22 to 24 starting from January 16th next year.




Insight Economics




1. CCTV News: Recently, four international shipping companies have announced a suspension of navigation in the Red Sea due to attacks by Yemeni armed forces on multiple ships while they were sailing in the waters. Since the outbreak of the new round of Palestinian Israeli conflict, the Hussai armed forces have frequently launched missile and drone attacks on Israel under the pretext of "supporting Palestine". The tense situation in the Red Sea waters means that the risk of overflow from the Palestinian Israeli conflict has increased, affecting international shipping.




2. Reference news: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that many western leaders have contacted him on the potential negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As long as Moscow's core interests are respected, the Kremlin is willing to engage in dialogue. Some Western powers are becoming increasingly interested in resolving issues through negotiations, but they refuse to name any country.




3. CCTV News Client: It is reported that the Japanese government has basically decided to set the defense budget for the 2024 fiscal year at 7.7 trillion yen, equivalent to approximately 385.5 billion yuan. The plan is to increase the total defense spending to 43 trillion yen or approximately 2.2 trillion yuan between 2023 and 2027. It is expected that the related expenses will be used for the purchase of long-range missiles and the development of next-generation fighter jets.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 7.0987, up 0.4404% and 0.8658% for the week; The median price of the Chinese yuan was 7.0957, up 0.1871%, with a weekly increase of 0.2334%.




2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added with a transaction amount of 1.383 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.25% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6266. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 57.731 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 1.7205 million tons, with a total transaction amount of 122.7904 million yuan and a closing price of 71.35 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.15% to close at 37305.16 points, up 2.92% for the week; The S&P 500 index closed down 0.01% at 4719.19 points, up 2.49% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 0.35% to close at 14813.92 points, up 2.85% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index closed down 0.00% at 16751.44 points, down 0.05% for the week; The French CAC40 index closed up 0.28% at 7596.91 points, up 0.93% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK closed down 0.95% at 7576.39 points, up 0.29% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, the settlement price of COMEX February gold futures fell 0.45% to $2035.70 per ounce, up 1.05% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures fell 0.21% to $71.43 per barrel, up 0.28% for the week; Brent crude oil futures closed 0.08% lower at $76.55 per barrel, up 0.68% for the week.




·AI PC is on the rise·




Guo Lian Securities: Since the second half of this year, there have been frequent incidents of AI PC, and end brand manufacturers such as Lenovo have gradually finalized the product definition of AI PC, which is expected to gradually enter the mass production stage. AI PC can create personalized local knowledge bases, run personal large models through model compression technology, and achieve natural AI interaction. Lenovo Group Chairman and CEO Yang Yuanqing believes that AI PCs will account for 10% of the market share in the early stage, and in the future, AI PCs will have five core characteristics: personal large models, stronger computing power, larger storage, smoother natural voice interaction, more reliable security and privacy protection. With the official release of Intel Core Ultra processors, laptops equipped with Intel's latest AI chips from companies such as Dell, Microsoft, and Lenovo will gradually be launched for sale.




CITIC Securities: Due to the development of generative AI technology, continuous attention from users to privacy, security, and other factors, coupled with technology such as model distillation, the unit computing cost of AI inference is continuously decreasing, and edge AI is expected to enter a rapid development channel. Taking into account factors such as computing power consumption, hardware volume, application scenarios, and battery power consumption, PC is expected to become one of the intelligent hardware prioritized for edge implementation, and follows the basic logic of hardware first and software application following rich logic. Considering the continuous iteration at the algorithm level, the relatively low difficulty of AI PC hardware stack transformation, and the enthusiasm of whole machine manufacturers for new product innovation, the penetration rate of AI PC is expected to continue to increase in the next 12-18 months, and under optimistic circumstances, it may exceed double digits. Industry investment opportunities for corresponding links such as complete machines, processors, DRAM, and advanced processes.




Huachuang Securities: After experiencing a period of rapid growth during the pandemic dividend, the global PC industry has experienced a continuous decline in shipments for several quarters since the fourth quarter of 2021, experiencing a decline in shipments in the past two years. According to IDC data, global PC shipments in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 10.71% month on month and decreased by 7.6% year-on-year. Although it still shows a downward trend compared to the same period last year, the decline has significantly narrowed. In terms of inventory, the inventory levels of several major PC suppliers have been continuously declining since the second quarter of 2022, and have now reached a relatively healthy inventory level. However, in the early stage, the main focus was on digesting channel inventory. Currently, weak terminal demand has led to a slowdown in sales, and inventory turnover days are still at a high level. But as inventory depletion approaches its end, the PC industry is expected to see a recovery.




Huatai Securities: The emergence of generative AI will change the PC ecosystem centered around the Wintel (Windows+Intel) alliance, which has remained stable for the past 40 years. From an application perspective, connecting enterprise databases


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