Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. According to preliminary statistics from China National Radio, the number of visitors to Hong Kong in August reached nearly 4.5 million, an increase of over 9% year-on-year, setting a new monthly high since full customs clearance in February last year.
2. Shanghai Meteorological Bureau: On September 17th, there was significant sun exposure and the temperature quickly rose. As of now, the highest temperature at Xujiahui Station in the central urban area is 33.7 ℃. This is the hottest Mid-Autumn Festival after the 35 ℃ high temperature on the Mid Autumn Day in 2005.
3. Pengpai News: With the arrival of Mid Autumn Festival and National Day, the demand for imported fruits in the domestic market continues to rise. The railway departments of China and Laos are making every effort to transport imported fruits from Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Laos. Since August, a total of 17700 tons of imported fruits such as durian, mangosteen, and bananas have been transported.
4. CCTV News: On September 17th, the French National Assembly Office ruled that the impeachment proceedings against President Macron initiated by members of some left-wing political parties are admissible. The proposal will be submitted to the Legal Committee for review. The legal committee will vote on the proposal to decide whether to approve or reject it.
Stock market inventory
1. On Tuesday, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.37% to 17660.02 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.12% to 3536.57 points. The state-owned enterprise index rose 1.41% to 6176.03 points. On the market, the afternoon gains of automobile stocks expanded, with Ideal Automobile up 6.26% and Evergrande Automobile up 6%. Internet medical stocks rose, with Ali Health and JD Health up more than 3%. Home appliance stocks, film and television stocks, and traditional Chinese medicine stocks fell.
2. The Secretary for the Treasury of Hong Kong, Xu Zhengyu, stated that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will maintain trading in the securities and derivatives market under adverse weather conditions starting from September 23rd. This important reform is the result of the concerted efforts of all market participants and stakeholders to overcome all difficulties. It is believed that the financial market does not want any uncertainty, and the implementation of the reform will enable the Hong Kong market to be in line with international standards.
3. New York Stock Exchange executive: It is expected that a large number of companies will go public in the United States in the first half of 2025, and many companies are currently waiting for the results of the November election and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle.
4. Hainan Haiyao (6 consecutive boards): As of September 13th, the company's price to book ratio was 3.78; The price to book ratio of the industry category "Pharmaceutical Manufacturing" under the China Association for Market Regulation is 2.25. The current price to book ratio is higher than the aforementioned "pharmaceutical manufacturing industry" price to book ratio.
5. Guotou Electric Power plans to issue stocks to the Social Security Foundation at a price of 12.72 yuan per share to raise no more than 7 billion yuan. After deducting relevant issuance expenses, all funds will be used for the Mengdigou Hydropower Station and Kala Hydropower Station projects.
6. Transsion Holdings: On September 7th, it disclosed the "Announcement on Major Matters" and its financial director Xiao Yonghui was detained. Recently, we received a "Notice of Release of Detention" issued by the Zhen'an District Supervision Committee of Dandong City, which has lifted the detention measures on Xiao Yonghui.
Industry Observation
1. CCTV News: September 17th is the third day of the Mid Autumn Festival holiday. In terms of railways, the national railway is expected to send 15.2 million passengers and plans to add 1030 passenger trains.
2. Securities Times: This year's Mid Autumn Festival holiday is mainly focused on short distance travel. In terms of local travel, the popularity of museum tours has significantly increased, and the number of museum ticket orders in various regions has increased by 15% compared to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday.
3. CCTV News: On the morning of September 17th, China's "Einstein Probe" (EP) space X-ray observatory also transmitted X-ray images of the moon from space during the Mid Autumn Festival. This is also the first time that Chinese scientists have observed a complete X-ray image of the moon using their self-developed space telescope.
4. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: The total number of public piles in August reached 3.26 million, with a month on month increase of 53600 piles, which is 12% slower than the same period last year; In 2024, the annual cumulative increase of public piles will be 540000, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13%.
5. Ministry of Transport: On September 16th, the cross regional personnel flow in the whole society was 192.896 million, a decrease of 10.7% month on month, an increase of 17.9% year-on-year, and an increase of 10.8% compared to the same period in 2019.
6. CCTV News: With the mechanical completion acceptance of Asia's first cylindrical offshore oil and gas processing plant "Haikui No.1" and Asia's first deepwater pipeline platform "Haiji No.2", it marks the completion of China's first deepwater oil field secondary development project, and a major breakthrough in China's independent construction capability of all types of deepwater oil and gas equipment.
7. CCTV News: The sample returned by Chang'e-6 has a low density, indicating that its structure is relatively loose and its porosity is high. Particle analysis shows that the particle size of lunar soil exhibits a bimodal distribution, suggesting that the sample may have undergone mixing from different sources.
Financial data
abroad
1. US stock market: The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.04% at 41606.18 points; The Nasdaq closed up 0.20% at 17628.06 points; The S&P 500 closed up 0.03% at 5634.58 points.
2. Europe: The FTSE 100 in the UK closed up 0.38% at 8309.86 points; German DAX30 closed up 0.50% at 18726.08 points; The French CAC40 closed up 0.51% at 7487.42 points.
3. Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.48% to $2596.4 per ounce.
4. Crude oil: WTI October crude oil futures closed up 1.57% at $71.19 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures for November closed up 1.31% at $73.70 per barrel.
5. The Baltic Dry Index rose 0.26% to 1901 points.
► First Financial: This week, the suspense of the Federal Reserve's policy shift will be revealed. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech at Jackson Hole last month that they will not tolerate further weakness in the labor market. Subsequently, investors turned their attention to employment related data, and any signs of weakness could exacerbate the pricing of loose interest rates. The Bank of Japan will also announce its interest rate decision. In addition, central banks in multiple countries such as the UK, Brazil, Norway, and Indonesia will also release their latest interest rate resolutions. European Central Bank President Lagarde and several members will give speeches within the week.
CCTV News: In the early morning of September 19th (Thursday) Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, and then Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference. Although the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is almost considered a "certainty" at present, there is still uncertainty about the magnitude of the cut. Market analysts point out that starting with a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is the least resistance path, which can avoid a significant rate cut from triggering market panic. However, JPMorgan's Chief US Economist reiterated his expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut.
Minyin Securities: The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain policy rates unchanged next week, and the market's focus is on officials' outlook for future interest rate cuts. Investors are currently expecting the Bank of England to cut by 25 basis points each at its November and December meetings, while the focus of the Bank of Japan is whether Kazuo Ueda will trigger another global market shock. Recently, officials from the Bank of Japan have expressed different opinions on whether to raise interest rates. Although there is an overall tendency to postpone the rate hike, if there is a "explosion" situation of the US cutting interest rates by 50bp and Japan unexpectedly raising interest rates, the risks in the global financial market may significantly increase.
Securities Times: Market expectations suggest that the interest rate spread between the United States and Japan may further narrow. As a result, international gold prices continued to soar, with spot gold prices reaching a record high of $2589.69 per ounce on September 16th. On that day, the Hong Kong stock gold sector led the way with strong gains. KCM Trade stated that the prospect of the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week has caused gold and the US dollar to move in opposite directions. The overall situation of gold remains favorable and may further rise. If the US dollar continues to decline, the price of gold may reach $2700 per ounce by the end of the year. ANZ Bank stated that the strength of the gold price increase will depend on the pace of the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rate cuts.