Financial attention
► 2023 government work report: current development faces many difficulties and challenges. The uncertainty of the external environment is increasing, global inflation is still at a high level, the growth momentum of the world economy and trade is weakening, and external repression is rising. The foundation for stabilizing and improving domestic economic growth needs to be consolidated. The lack of demand is still a prominent contradiction. The expectations of private investment and private enterprises are unstable. There are many difficulties for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual businesses. The task of stabilizing employment is arduous. Some grass-roots fiscal revenue and expenditure conflicts are large.
► Global Times: In 2023, China's defense budget is about 1553.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year on year, an increase of 0.1% over last year, and a single-digit increase for eight consecutive years. Experts said that with the need for national defense security and the development of the national economy, China's defense spending will maintain a moderate growth, but China will not follow the old path of some Western countries pursuing hegemony and 'a strong country will dominate', nor will it follow the evil path of arms race and militarism, and China will remain committed to the path of peaceful development.
► Zoomlion: China's commodity index rose to 102.8% in February, the highest in nearly five months, with a month-on-month recovery of 2.4 percentage points, indicating that the operating situation of the domestic commodity market began to recover. At present, the demand of domestic bulk commodity market has begun to recover, the industry expectation has continued to improve, the terminal industry procurement, production and other business activities have been active, and the market inventory pressure has eased.
Macroeconomics
1. The 2023 government work report: the main expected development goal this year is to increase the gross domestic product by about 5%; About 12 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the unemployment rate in urban survey was about 5.5%; Consumer prices rose by about 3%; The growth of residents' income is basically synchronized with economic growth; Import and export promote stability and quality, and the balance of payments is basically balanced; The grain output remained above 1.3 trillion jin; The energy consumption per unit of GDP and the emissions of major pollutants continued to decline, and the consumption of fossil energy was mainly controlled, and the quality of the ecological environment was steadily improved.
2. The Central Meteorological Station: It is expected that a strong cold air will invade China from west to east on March 9-12. There will be sand and dust weather in parts of the northwest and north China. There will be a large range of rainfall in the south. The temperature in parts of the northwest and central and eastern regions will drop by 10-16 ℃. Due to the large warming in the early stage, which creates great cooling space, it is expected that this strong cold air may reach the cold wave level.
3. The 2023 government work report: We should adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, maintain the continuity and pertinence of policies, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies, and form a joint force to jointly promote high-quality development; The positive fiscal policy should increase its efficiency, and the deficit rate is planned to be 3%; A prudent monetary policy should be precise and effective.
4. PAHO: Recently, the overall incidence rate of dengue fever is on the rise in Latin American countries. Since 2023, the number of cases of dengue fever in some countries in Central America, the Andean region and Caribbean countries including Cuba and Dominica has increased. Experts said that climate warming and increased rainfall in recent years are the main factors leading to the high incidence of dengue fever in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Stock market inventory
1. Financial breakfast: hot spots keep coming out, tracking what you want to hear. 90% of private equity projects face exit difficulties? Why did VC/PE set up an investment banking department? Will the semiconductor industry face a wave of mergers and acquisitions? What are the new development ideas of real estate enterprises? How to persuade the boss to give up the company and avoid ruin? Young people will strive to become 'online celebrity' in the future? Go to the end of the article to check the financial secret tracking brought by [talkative alpha]——
2. CITIC Securities: The implementation of the 'two sessions' policy will dilute the short-term game, and it is expected that the 'strong expectation' of economic recovery verified by high-frequency data will gradually become reality. The second wave of comprehensive market repair will last for several months. The second wave of market is not only the relay of the entry of incremental funds, but also the relay of the growth style of the medium and large market. It is recommended to continue to grasp the golden allocation window, focus on the direction of smooth industrial logic, and strategically allocate the 'four security' areas, And improve the configuration priority of semiconductor and information and innovation sectors.
3. Securities Times: As of March 5, the total size of ETFs has increased by more than 15.4 billion yuan this year; The net asset value of ETF reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. At the same time, 10 new ETF products have been established since February. Technology ETFs, represented by the digital economy, performed well this year.
4. China Securities Network: Since the second half of 2022, domestic quantitative CTA products have experienced a long period of overall performance downturn. In this regard, the industry said that the time and space for the withdrawal of this round of quantitative CTA strategy are on the long side and on the large side in historical statistics. Under the circumstance that the market environment is expected to improve, the performance of quantitative CTA strategy in 2023 is expected to usher in the opportunity of 'mean return'.
5. Liu Qingfeng, chairman of iFLYTEK: build an innovative system of industry-university-research cooperation with leading enterprises as the main body; Actively promote the industrial demonstration application and large-scale value landing of cognitive intelligence big model in the fields of education, medical care, office, human-computer interaction and AIGC; We will increase investment in the construction of public computing platforms, build national data resource platforms, and encourage industrial funds to refer to the new investment agreement models of OpenAI and Microsoft and other shareholders.
6. CITIC Bank: The total amount of shares allocated to all AH shareholders shall not exceed 40 billion yuan according to the proportion of 3 shares per 10 shares. The funds raised by this allotment will be used to supplement the company's core tier 1 capital and improve the capital adequacy ratio after deducting the relevant issuance expenses.
7. Subscription of new shares: This week, a total of 6 new shares were issued, including 2 new shares on the Shanghai Main Board, 3 new shares on the Growth Enterprise Board and 1 new shares on the Beijing Stock Exchange. They are Yada Shares, Caidie Industry, Hongyuan Pharmaceutical, Taotao Automobile, Honglin Electric Power and Suqian Liansheng.
8. Unlimited sales: This week, a total of 50 restricted shares were lifted, with a total number of 2.855 billion shares and a market value of 27.789 billion yuan. Among them, China Chemical ranked first in the list of lifting ban with 3.596 billion yuan, Liu Gong and Power Xinke ranked second and third with 3.143 billion yuan and 2.99 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. The 2023 government work report: government investment and policy incentives should effectively drive the investment of the whole society. This year, it is planned to arrange 3.8 trillion yuan of local government special bonds to accelerate the implementation of the 'Fourteenth Five-Year Plan' major projects, implement urban renewal actions, promote regional complementarities and develop their strengths, encourage and attract more private capital to participate in the construction of national major projects and complementary projects, and stimulate the vitality of private investment.
2. Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: China has built the largest and most advanced 5G network, and now our country has ranked among the top in the world in 5G. China has more than 575 million 5G mobile phone users. We will open 600000 new 5G base stations this year, with a total of more than 2.9 million. Our 6G promotion working group is already working to strengthen international cooperation and accelerate the development of 6G.
3. Shijiazhuang Metro: As long as you shop at the designated shops or 36524 convenience stores in the subway station, you can get a ticket for the day, and you can take the subway once for free, unlimited mileage. You can get multiple small tickets by buying several goods separately, and you can get many people to take the subway for free for many times on the same day.
Industry observation
1. 2023 government work report: strengthen domestic exploration and development of important energy and mineral resources and increase reserves and production; Accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries and small and medium-sized enterprises, and strive to improve the level of high-end, intelligent and green; Vigorously develop the digital economy, improve the level of normalization supervision, and support the development of the platform economy.
2. Economic Daily: As a strategic emerging technology, artificial intelligence has formed the 'AI enabling+' effect and injected strong momentum into economic and social development. However, the application of artificial intelligence is a 'double-edged sword', which may cause risks while enabling economic and social development. First, the risk of new legal disputes. The second is moral hazard. Third, the risk of social hazards caused by imperfect AI technology.
3. 2023 government work report: develop rural characteristic industries and broaden the channels for farmers to increase income and become rich. Consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation and resolutely prevent large-scale poverty reduction; We should prevent and defuse the risk of local government debt, optimize the debt maturity structure, reduce the interest burden, curb the increase and defuse the stock.
4. Jiangsu Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Starting this year, it will launch the implementation of the three-year action plan for the construction of major agricultural and rural projects, focusing on the three directions of intensive processing, new industries and new formats, and high technology, focusing on the six aspects of stable production and supply, self-improvement of science and technology, and digital agriculture. It plans to build 300 provincial demonstration projects and 3000 major projects of high-quality construction in three years, and drive an additional investment of 1 trillion yuan in agricultural and rural areas.
5. CINNO Research: Under the low turnover rate of the panel factory in January, the panel price finally saw a slight rebound in February. However, as the international inflationary pressure continues, the current price increase cycle may be judged to be sustainable according to the demand side situation in the second quarter. In February, the prices of LCD TV panels of all major sizes rose slightly, and the panel factory ushered in a favorable situation of both price and crop growth rate rising for a short time.
6. Overseas website: Mohammed Hadi Ahmadi, an official of the Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade of Iran, said that a huge lithium ore deposit was discovered for the first time in Hamadan Province in the western part of the country. It is reported that the lithium ore reserve is nearly 8.5 million tons. Investors are ready to start the mine in the next two years. It is expected to find other lithium mines in the province.
7. Indian Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology: Indian Prime Minister Modi said that India would play an important role in the global electronic supply chain and set the goal of manufacturing US $300 billion of electronic products by 2026. From next year, mobile phones will become one of the top ten categories of India's exports. India will soon build a comprehensive semiconductor ecosystem including design, packaging, manufacturing and production. A new Digital India Law will be enacted soon.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 16:30 against the US dollar at 6.9002, up 0.1216% and 0.6336% for the week; The central parity rate of the RMB was 6.9117, down 0.4491% and 0.2538% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 14 new companies were listed, with a turnover of 967 million yuan, down 9.57% month-on-month. So far, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6567. Since this year, the cumulative turnover of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6.774 billion yuan.
3. Shanghai Environment Exchange: Last week, the total turnover of carbon emission quota in the national carbon market was 313000 tons, with a total turnover of 17.7263 million yuan. The closing price on Friday was 56.00 yuan/ton, down 0.88% for the week.
4. US equities: Last Friday, the Dow closed up 1.17% at 33390.97, up 1.75% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 1.97% to 11689.01, up 2.58% for the week; The S&P 500 closed 1.61% higher at 4045.64, up 1.91% for the week.
5. Europe: On Friday, the FTSE 100 closed up 0.04% at 7947.11, up 0.87% for the week; Germany DAX30 closed up 1.64% at 15578.39, up 2.42% for the week; France CAC40 closed 0.88% higher at 7348.12, up 2.24% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, the settlement price of COMEX April gold futures rose 0.77% to 1854.6 US dollars/ounce, up 2.06% for the week.
7. Crude oil: last Friday, WTI April crude oil futures closed up 2.56% at 79.68 US dollars/barrel, up 4.4% for the week. Brent crude oil futures for May rose 1.29% to $85.83/barrel, up 3.6% for the week.
From three years of suffocation to blowout of opportunity
How is the M&A tide different in 2023?
► Yu Tiecheng, president of Guanghui Research Institute of Mergers and Acquisitions: In the past two or three years, China's private equity investment fund industry has faced a huge challenge and crisis, and more than 90% of the investment has encountered a project exit crisis. Some head funds manage an average of more than 50 billion yuan and invest hundreds of projects. Maybe each fund has one or two hundred projects that have reached the exit period, which is why VC/PE set up the investment banking department. 2023 will be a big year for mergers and acquisitions, mainly deals between VC/PE investment projects and listed companies in China.
► Financial headlines: For VC/PE, IPO may no longer be equivalent to exit. According to the closing price of A-shares on March 2, 2023, the total market value is less than 10 billion 3488, accounting for 68.32%; Less than 5 billion 2228, accounting for 43.64%; Less than 3 billion 1063, accounting for 20.80%; Less than 131, accounting for 2.57%. At the same time, the small market value 'zombie stocks' with extremely low liquidity also began to appear in A-shares.
► Yu Tiecheng, president of Guanghui Research Institute of Mergers and Acquisitions: For many small market capitalization listed companies in China, they have a strong motivation to participate in mergers and acquisitions. Because the company's market value will not enter the investment category of mainstream institutions until it is raised to more than 10 billion yuan, otherwise the daily trading volume will be very small, and the financing function will be slowly lost, and the significance of listing will be lost. However, if the main business of the listed company grows linearly every year, it will not achieve the explosive growth of market value at all, and only take the path of mergers and acquisitions industry integration.
► Financial headlines: one category, like the semiconductor circuit, faces the problem of homogeneity and serious overcapacity. For the companies listed in the period of high valuation of the semiconductor circuit in 2020 and 2021, there is a direct pressure. Their business volume is difficult to support the market value; Another category, such as the real estate industry, is that after regulation, real estate enterprises need to unite to stand up.