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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-05-15

Date: 2023-05-15
Views: 4

Financial attention

Macroeconomics


1. China Securities News: On May 12th, some banks such as Ping An Bank and Dongying Bank issued a notice stating that they will suspend the sale of 'smart call deposit' products or handle smart call deposit business. Industry insiders point out that this may be related to several banks announcing adjustments to call deposit rates recently. The relevant departments have issued a notice requiring banks to control call deposits and increase interest rates on agreed deposits by a certain upper limit starting from May 15th.


2. Zhou Hongyi: ChatGPT-4.0 is already the smartest 'person' on Earth. All high-tech companies are building their own big models, at least a 'thousand model battle', and without any surprises, it will soon develop into a 'ten thousand model battle'. In three to five years, various industries will be reshaped by GPT, so whoever doesn't embrace artificial intelligence now will be eliminated.


3. Global Network: 'The European Union and the United States promise to take joint action against China.' Foreign media cited a draft statement on this topic, revealing that the United States and the European Union will promise to take joint action against China in multiple fields and coordinate their export controls on semiconductors and other goods at a meeting this month.


4. National Weather Service of the United States: High temperature warnings have been issued for parts of Oregon and Washington State. The northwest region will experience record high temperatures far higher than the average level in mid May of previous years, reaching temperatures between 26.7 and 32.2 ℃.


5. Argentina: Encountered a historic drought, exacerbating its fragile economic situation. The drought hit the export of soybeans, corn and wheat, consumed foreign exchange reserves, led to a sharp depreciation of the Argentine peso, and further pushed up prices. Drought may lead to a direct reduction of $19 billion in Argentina's GDP in 2023.




Stock market inventory


1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.12% to 3272.36 points, a weekly drop of 1.86%; The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 1.23% to 11005.64 points, down 1.57% for the week; The ChiNext Index fell 1.06% to 2252.38 points, down 0.67% for the week.


2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.59% to 19627.24, down 2.11% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.29% to 3874.11 points, down 0.55% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index fell 0.47% to 6663.55, a weekly drop of 1.97%.


3. CITIC Securities: The comprehensive and systematic recovery of the economy after the epidemic is a gradual and gradual process. The re rotation of the flywheel requires time and patience. Theme trading is a phased product of the downward revision process of high economic expectations. Excessive gaming reduces the effectiveness of market pricing, but also improves the potential return of performance driven strategies. The peak of theme trading has passed, and it has returned to the low performance driven sector.


4. Haitong Securities: Since October last year, both value and growth have experienced significant internal differentiation, which can be verified from both industry and index perspectives. Essentially, the past period of the market is a period of emotional recovery. Driven by policies and events, the digital economy and China Special Valuation have performed well, and the future market may enter a fundamental driving force. The bull market pattern has not changed throughout the year, and it is currently in a stage of momentum accumulation, with the industry experiencing periodic rebalancing.


5. China Fund News: Recently, 'China Special Valuation' has become a hot topic in the A-share market, and foreign institutions are strengthening their research. Many state-owned and state-owned listed companies have received significant increases in foreign investment. Foreign institutions such as Fidelity believe that state-owned enterprises have become a 'market focus', and Chinese state-owned enterprises have received positive signals. Investors can explore targets for continuous improvement in profitability, thereby obtaining long-term stable investment returns.


6. Beijing Public Security Bureau: Report on the overall situation of combating economic crimes since 2022. Up to now, more than 4500 economic cases have been uncovered and more than 5500 suspect have been arrested. Among them, the Economic Investigation Corps was involved in 38 cases in the securities field, and 91 suspect were arrested, involving 2.23 billion yuan.


7. New share subscription: This week, there were a total of 2 new share subscriptions, including 1 on the ChiNext board and 1 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, respectively, Tongxing Technology and Xinghao Pharmaceutical.


8. Restriction and lifting of restrictions: This week, a total of 87 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 2.942 billion shares lifted and a market value of 37.089 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Zhongke Jiangnan ranked first on the lifting list with 6.405 billion yuan, while Jingke Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics ranked second and third with 4.096 billion yuan and 3.516 billion yuan, respectively.


Wealth Focus


1. CCTV Finance: Entering May, crayfish has become a delicacy on many people's dining tables. Recently, with the significant increase in the market volume of crayfish, the prices have also become much cheaper. In the Jiayan Aquatic Market, which is the most concentrated wholesale market for crayfish in Shanghai, the daily wholesale volume has exceeded 150000 kilograms recently. The cheapest wholesale price for shrimp is ten yuan per kilogram; Chinese shrimp priced at around 20 yuan per kilogram for seven to eight yuan is almost half the price when it was first launched.


2. Federal Reserve: More than 700 banks face risks due to significant floating losses on their balance sheets. Raising interest rates is a catalyst for causing significant losses for US banks. More than 700 banks are facing the risk of 'significant security and solvency' due to large floating losses on their balance sheets, and the losses reported by these banks exceed 50% of their capital.


3. Financial breakfast: Hot topics keep coming up, tracking what you want to hear. May the US dollar lose its main support and benefit gold? The World Gold Council has said that gold has repeatedly brought positive returns during economic downturns? What is the impact of the expected increase in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on gold? How long can the upward trend of gold continue? Financial friends, quickly move to the end of the article to check today's financial secret tracking # Global central banks are hoarding money again


Industry Observation


1. CCTV Finance: Since mid March, domestic steel prices have been fluctuating and weakening for two consecutive months. The futures price of rebar has dropped from 4328 yuan per ton in mid March to 3670 yuan per ton on May 13th. The director of a certain steel factory stated that May is usually the peak season of the steel industry turning into a off-season. Due to the influence of the market, the demand for large orders has decreased. In order to reduce inventory, production is carefully scheduled and produced according to demand.


2. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association: Currently, electric vehicles are mainly rechargeable vehicles, and there is no reverse power transmission function. Moreover, the charging mode of photovoltaic charging piles is not yet mature, and effective product design is needed to meet the requirements. By encouraging new energy vehicle owners to charge and store energy during low electricity usage periods and discharging the power grid in reverse during peak electricity usage periods, a dynamic and effective 'new energy vehicle+power grid' energy system is constructed, playing a role in peak shaving and valley filling.


3. Associated Press of Finance: Recently, the price of high-purity quartz sand continues to rise, and leading enterprises frequently raise the price, with a year-on-year increase of more than 400%. According to the industry, the hot photovoltaic industry has driven the strong demand for quartz crucible products, leading to the shortage of high-purity quartz sand. The 60000 ton high-purity quartz sand project of Quartz Co., Ltd. will be put into production in 2023. In addition, listed companies such as Shijing Technology and Capvision Technology are also investing heavily in quartz sand production capacity.


4. Japanese telecommunications giant NTT: will invest 8 trillion yen in artificial intelligence, data centers, and other growth areas within 5 years. According to the five-year medium-term business plan by 2028, at least 1.5 trillion yen will be used to expand and upgrade data centers, while digital businesses including artificial intelligence and robotics will receive at least 3 trillion yen in investment.


5. SNE Research: The market share of Chinese produced batteries in the European Union has increased from 14.9% in 2020 to 34% last year, while the market share of Korean produced batteries has decreased from 68.2% to 63.5%. In the past two years, the market share of Chinese power batteries in the European Union has greatly increased, while the market share in South Korea has decreased.


6. Nikkei News: Samsung Electronics will build a new chip development facility in Yokohama, costing over 30 billion yen. This facility will focus on 'backend' production, which involves packaging wafers into final products.


Insight Economics


1. US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Seeking to raise the US debt ceiling is 'more difficult' than ever before. I hope to update the US Congress in the coming weeks on when the Treasury Department will run out of funds to pay government bills.


2. Financial Times: The G7 and the European Union will ban the restart of Russia's natural gas pipelines, and the G7 leaders will finalize this decision at next week's Hiroshima summit. This will prevent Russia from resuming pipeline natural gas exports to countries such as Poland and Germany.


Financial data


1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 6:30 pm against the US dollar at 6.9506, down 0.1585% and 0.5672% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 6.9481, down 0.5499%, and down 0.5310% for the week.


2. New Third Board: Last week, three new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.197 billion yuan, an increase of 114.16% month on month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6477. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 19.397 billion yuan.


3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 257500 tons, with a total trading volume of 14.4515 million yuan and a closing price of 56.00 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.9%.


4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow fell 0.03% to 33300.62 points, with a weekly decline of 1.11%; The S&P 500 index fell 0.16% to 4124.08, a weekly drop of 0.29%; The Nasdaq fell 0.36% to 12284.74 points and rose 0.40% for the week.


5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 0.50% to 15913.82 points, with a weekly decline of 0.30%; The French CAC40 index rose 0.45% to close at 7414.85, down 0.24% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.31% to close at 7754.62, down 0.31% for the week.


6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX June gold futures closed 0.03% lower at $2019.80 per ounce, a weekly decline of 0.24%.


7. Crude oil: Last Friday, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures fell 1.17% to $70.04 per barrel, a weekly drop of 1.7%; Brent crude oil futures closed 1.08% lower at $74.17 per barrel, down 1.4% for the week.


·Global central banks are hoarding money again·


CCTV Finance: Recently, international gold prices have been continuously rising, and in early May, the spot price of international gold briefly stood above $2080 per ounce, setting a new historical high. Since the beginning of this year, the increase in international spot gold prices has also exceeded 10%. Industry insiders believe that since this year, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has continued to ferment, and many banks in the United States and Europe have failed in succession. In the complex and ever-changing environment, the rising risk aversion sentiment in the market is the main reason for the international gold price to rise. After the Federal Reserve's May interest rate meeting, the market's expectation of the Fed suspending interest rate hikes has increased, indicating that the US dollar may lose its main support and be bullish on gold.


► World Gold Council: In the first quarter, the global gold reserve increased by 228 tons, setting a record for net purchase of gold in the first quarter. Louise Streit, senior market analyst at the World Gold Council, said that central bank purchases are likely to remain strong, and even if the purchase volume is below last year's historical high, it may still become the cornerstone of supporting gold demand for the entire year of 2023. In this situation, the investment demand for gold is likely to increase this year, especially with the weakening of unfavorable factors such as a stronger US dollar and interest rate hikes. As some economies are on the brink of recession, gold may stand at the center of the stage as a long-term strategic asset. Looking back at history, gold investment has brought positive returns in five out of the past seven economic downturns


Guo Sheng Securities: The US CPI in April fell by 10 months year-on-year to 4.9%, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut slightly increased. In the short term, gold will face a dual bearish outlook. Firstly, the current interest rate market has sufficient expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and it is difficult to fulfill them in the short term. In the next two months, inflation will significantly decline, which will lead to a significant increase in real interest rates; Secondly, as the US economy gradually enters a recession, it is likely that the US stock market will experience a new round of adjustment. Historical experience shows that an increase in US stock volatility will drive the US dollar index to rise in stages. As for the relief of the dual pressure, it will have to wait until the Federal Reserve determines to cut interest rates and the end of the US stock market adjustment.


► Zhongtai Securities: Against the backdrop of increasing economic downward pressure and banking system risks, the market expects the Federal Reserve to enter a rate cutting cycle in the second half of the year. When sticky high inflation meets the start of the rate cutting cycle, the inflation center will face the risk of passively rising, which may ultimately lead to the actual interest rate center moving down beyond expectations, thereby continuously pushing up gold prices, And short-term sticky inflation will bring different residual values, thereby increasing the upward volatility of gold prices. Regardless of time or space, the upward trend of gold has not ended, and as the upward trend of gold unfolds, targets with outstanding resource and growth advantages will have significant investment value.

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