Financial attention
Macroeconomics
1. Ning Jizhe, Deputy Director of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC): The expected economic growth target of about 5% can be achieved. At the same time, it should be noted that greater efforts should be made to achieve effective improvement in the quality of economic operation and reasonable growth in quantity this year. In particular, enterprises should give full play to their important role as market production and operation entities, especially SMEs.
2. Jiang Guangzhi, Director of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Economy and Information Technology, will actively promote organizations with public affairs management functions such as government agencies, public institutions, and state-owned enterprises in this city, actively purchase and use safe and reliable large model related products and services, plan to introduce a 'computing power coupon' policy, and support small and medium-sized enterprises based on landing application scenarios to obtain diversified, low-cost, and high-quality computing power, Support artificial intelligence enterprises and relevant industry organizations in this city to play a leading role in the formulation of national, industry, and local standards for artificial intelligence.
3. Zhou Hongyi: The big model will be everywhere in the future. The big model must be 'universal', enabling hundreds of industries to lead the industrial revolution. The big model is not an operating system, but will become the standard configuration of digital systems in the future. The trend of large models is to do 'small' and 'specialized' without monopolizing a large model. The big model that the future enterprise level market truly needs should conform to the characteristics of industry, enterprise, vertical, and miniaturization.
4. Global Network: According to the data of Rheinmetall, a German arms dealer, orders received by the company in 2022 increased by 18% year on year due to the continuous transportation of weapons from the West to Ukraine. Rheinmetall is currently planning to launch a new ammunition production line and recruit hundreds of employees.
Stock market inventory
1. Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.62% to 3202.06 points, with a weekly increase of 0.13%; The Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 1.02% at 11026.59 points, down 0.29% for the week; The ChiNext Index closed up 1.60% at 2215.00 points, up 0.14% for the week.
2. On Friday, the Hang Seng Index closed 0.09% lower at 18916.43, up 0.14% for the week; The Hang Seng Technology Index closed 0.56% lower at 3911.31, up 0.82% for the week; The state-owned enterprise index closed down 0.03% at 6424.88 points, up 0.47% for the week.
3. CITIC Construction Investment: In the early stage, it was proposed that the market would build a 'W' shaped composite bottom. After the benefits of interest rate cuts were realized, the market experienced a pullback under pessimistic expectations. The subsequent inventory cycle bottomed out and the policy continued to exert force is still worth looking forward to, and the market has a macro liquidity bottom and a high investment value of equity assets. Key focus direction, policy benefit direction, and early oversold direction; High ROE direction with clockwise attributes; The preferred direction for incremental capital inflows.
4. TCL Central: The controlling shareholder TCL Technology increased its holdings of 5455648 shares of the company from June 29 to June 30. After the increase, TCL Technology and its concerted action holders held 30% of the company's shares.
5. BYD: In June, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 253000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 95.78% in cumulative sales throughout the year; The total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries is approximately 11.82 GWh, with a cumulative installed capacity of approximately 60.25 GWh throughout the year.
6. China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation: Expected net profit for the first half of the year is 465 million to 529 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45% -65%; Benefiting from the stable and improving domestic macroeconomic situation and the increasing demand in overseas markets, the heavy truck industry has seen a significant recovery and achieved good growth in product sales.
7. Weichai Power: It is estimated that the net profit in the first half of the year will be 3.59 billion to 4.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 50% -70%. In the first half of the year, there was a recovery in demand in the heavy truck industry in China, and the sales of related products showed a high-speed growth trend. The contribution of strategic emerging businesses such as large cylinder diameters and hydraulic systems continued to increase.
8. Pioneer New Materials: We plan to purchase the controlling stake of Jiangsu Dongfeng Cable Co., Ltd. through asset replacement and issuance of shares to purchase assets. The stock will be suspended from trading on July 3rd, with an expected suspension period of no more than 10 trading days.
9. New share subscription: This week, a total of 9 new share subscriptions were made, including 5 on the ChiNext board, 2 on the Science and Technology Innovation board, and 2 on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Haofan Biotech, Pangu Intelligent, Yinghuate, Saiwei Times, Xinyin Electronics, Aike Optoelectronics, Jingzhida, Haosheng Electronics, and Huitong New Materials.
10. Restriction and lifting of restrictions: This week, a total of 99 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 29.458 billion shares lifted and a market value of 139.93 billion yuan lifted. Among them, Agricultural Bank of China ranked first on the lifting list with 70.458 billion yuan, while Tianshan Aluminum and Obi Zhongguang ranked second and third with 13.754 billion yuan and 6.172 billion yuan respectively.
Wealth Focus
1. CCTV News: On July 2, the largest single Lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 120000 tons in China was put into production in the Ruoqiang County Industrial Park in Xinjiang. The project has a total investment of 4.6 billion yuan and will commence construction in September 2022, divided into two phases. After the completion of the second phase project, it will achieve an annual production capacity of over 120000 tons, achieve sales revenue of over 30 billion yuan, and generate employment opportunities for over 1500 people.
2. Department of Commerce of Hainan Province: The 2023 Second Hainan International Islands Tax-free shopping Festival will be held at the end of June to August. The launch ceremony of the shopping festival will be held on July 4th at Haikou International Duty Free City. The Hainan Provincial Government will issue 20 million yuan Tax-free shopping Voucher.
Insight Economics
1. CCTV News: With the rapid growth of flight numbers and the optimization and adjustment of entry and exit management policies and measures, the number of passengers at Beijing Port has steadily increased. Currently, the daily average number of entry and exit passengers at Beijing Port has remained above 29000. In June, the number of entry and exit personnel exceeded 880000, an increase of 25.7% compared to the previous month, and a new high in the number of entry and exit passengers in a single month this year.
Financial data
1. Last Friday, the onshore RMB closed at 7.2620 at 16:30 against the US dollar, down 0.2720%, and up 0.9480% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 7.2258, down 0.0692%, and up 0.6449% for the week.
2. New Third Board: Last week, 7 new listed companies were added, with a transaction amount of 1.389 billion yuan, an increase of 82.70% compared to the previous month. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6463. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 27.754 billion yuan.
3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of carbon emission quota listing agreements in the national carbon market was 499400 tons, with a total trading volume of 29.5449 million yuan. Last Friday, the closing price was 60.00 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.26%.
4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow closed up 0.84% at 34407.60 points, up 2.02% for the week; The Nasdaq closed up 1.45% at 13787.92 points, up 2.19% for the week; The S&P 500 closed up 1.23% at 4450.38 points, up 2.35% for the week.
5. Europe: Last Friday, the FTSE 100 in the UK closed up 0.80% at 7531.53 points, up 0.93% for the week; The German DAX30 closed up 1.26% at 16147.90, up 2.01% for the week; The French CAC40 closed up 1.19% at 7400.06 points, up 3.30% for the week.
6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX August gold futures closed 0.6% higher at $1929.4 per ounce. In June, it fell 2.66%, fell 3.73% in the second quarter, and rose 2.98% in the first half of the year.
7. Crude oil: Last Friday, WTI August crude oil futures closed up 1.12% at $70.64 per barrel, up 2.10% for the week; Brent August crude oil futures closed 0.75% higher at $74.9 per barrel, up 1.40% for the week.
·Mid year Review and Outlook of A-shares·
► GF Securities: In the first half of 2023, the economy as a whole is characterized by 'first up and then down'. The first quarter is post epidemic 'normalization', and the second quarter is 'internal and external inventory resonance'. Five factors have facilitated the transition between two stages. Firstly, the release of 'compensatory consumption' and 'restorative production' after the epidemic has been completed; The second is that the two sessions set a GDP target of 5.0%, indicating a signal to stimulate high-quality development; The third is the periodic sporadic occurrence of secondary positive results from April to May, which has a certain disturbance to the economy; Fourthly, in the context of local financial pressure, local investment and financing may have a certain siphon effect on funds, resulting in more capital precipitation; Fifth, under the constraint of high interest rates, the US and European economies in the second quarter have slowed to varying degrees compared to the first quarter, which is transmitted through the formation of external demand orders.
► Everbright Securities: In the first half of the year, under the background of weak economic recovery, industry differentiation was relatively obvious. Under the catalysis of factors such as the digital economy and AIGC wave, TMT sectors with independent prosperity, such as communication, media, and computers, have led the way in growth, while the Fu Su chain is generally weak. Thanks to the bullish outlook on the domestic economy, the overall net inflow of funds from Beishang in the first half of the year showed a trend of 183.3 billion yuan. From the perspective of the net inflow amount of funds from Beishang to various industries, the preference for Beishang funds has not changed much compared to before, mainly focusing on new energy, TMT, and consumption. The industries with the highest net inflow amount include power equipment, electronics, mechanical equipment, and automobiles, but there are also some differences. For example, there have been more inflows from media that have not had much inflow before, while there have been a preference for non banking and finance that were previously more favored Banks and household appliances have not had much net inflow, and even experienced net outflows.
► AVIC Securities: Domestically, the June interest rate cut may indicate that there is still room for monetary easing in the second half of the year, but the pressure on the RMB exchange rate limits the space for easing policies. It is expected that the reserve requirement may be lowered again in the second half of the year, but there is limited room for further interest rate cuts. In addition, the central bank may use various means such as structural tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. In addition, it is necessary to cooperate with fiscal policies to enhance the effectiveness of monetary easing. On the overseas side, based on a comprehensive assessment of US consumption and government spending, a further decline in US economic growth in the second half of the year may be a high probability event. While the currency is tightening, US inflation is also difficult to maintain. Against this backdrop, the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve is expected to soften, and there is still a possibility of not raising interest rates and starting to lower them within the year.
► Western Securities: Looking ahead to the second half of 2023, with the further implementation of stable growth policies and the restoration of market risk appetite, incremental funds are expected to continue to enter the market. Although there are still expectations of overseas interest rate hikes in the near future and global liquidity is tightening, the domestic economy continues to recover. With the recovery of domestic enterprise profits and the further implementation of a package of economic protection policies, market risk appetite is expected to continue to repair, driving the continuous entry of incremental funds. This year, market funds are expected to return to the incremental game. According to calculations, the incremental capital of A-shares from June to December 2023 is approximately 349.6 billion yuan, with a potential annual increase of nearly 540 billion yuan.
► CITIC Securities: The current economy, policies and market sentiment are expected to be at the bottom. In July, A-shares will enter the verification period of performance and policies. The three Great Game of theme, policy and position adjustment will gradually converge. It is suggested to deploy around the two dimensions of 'China News Performance' and 'Three Safety'. Firstly, the domestic economic recovery is still at a low level, and the growth rate of corporate profits is expected to recover moderately in the second half of the year after bottoming out in the first half of the year. Secondly, policy expectations are still at the bottom, and the aggressive policy expectations in the early stage of the market have been continuously revised down. It is expected that the domestic countercyclical policy will not be absent in July, and the probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate hikes is not high, resulting in loose domestic macro liquidity. Third, the market is still at the bottom of the fluctuation range in the second half of the year, and the three Great Game of theme, policy and position adjustment will gradually converge in July, focusing on the performance driven mid report market.