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Weekly Financial Summary 2024-01-02

Date: 2024-01-02
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Financial attention


Macroeconomics




1. Chinese Embassy in the United States: In order to further facilitate the exchange of personnel between China and the United States, starting from January 1, 2024, the Chinese Embassy in the United States will waive the application materials for L-shaped (tourist) visas. Individuals traveling to China in the United States can apply for a visa to China without providing round-trip airfare, hotel orders, itinerary or invitation letters and other application materials.




2. China Railway Shanghai Group: On the first day of the New Year's holiday, the Yangtze River Delta Railway will experience a peak passenger flow, with an estimated 3.15 million passengers sent on that day. On the basis of activating the peak line operation chart, the railway department has increased its investment in key time periods and popular directions of transportation capacity.




3. CCTV News: On December 30th local time, the Russian government website announced a decision to extend restrictions on rice and rice exports. In addition to supplying and providing humanitarian assistance to designated countries and regions such as member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, in order to stabilize the domestic market, Russia will ban the export of rice and rice until June 30, 2024.




4. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government announced on December 29 that the "Local Tourism Incentive Program" will accept applications from qualified travel agents starting from January 1, 2024. The local characteristic tourism incentive plan is divided into two parts: deep tourism and characteristic theme tourism. The application period for the deep tourism part is from January 1, 2024 to July 31, 2024.




5. CCTV News: At 8:13 am Beijing time on December 30, 2023, China successfully launched a satellite internet technology test satellite using the Long March-2C carrier rocket at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. The satellite entered its designated orbit and the launch mission was a complete success. This mission is the 505th flight of the Long March series of carrier rockets.




Stock market inventory




1. Pengpai News: Several foreign-funded institutions believe that with the release of multiple positive signals from the "three carriages" of investment, consumption, and exports, China's macroeconomy is expected to further recover and stabilize in 2024. At the same time, with the valuation risk of A-shares fully released, domestic advantageous assets have good allocation value. And due to the historically low valuation of A-shares, maintain a "high allocation" stance towards A-shares.




2. China Securities Association: According to the latest version of the Quality Evaluation Method for Investment Banking Business, the investment banking business of securities firms in 2023 was rated. This evaluation included 12 A-class firms, 67 B-class firms, and 19 C-class firms. Among them, A-class securities firms are Caixin Securities, Great Wall Securities, First Venture Underwriting and Sponsorship, Huatai United, Jinyuan Securities, Nanjing Securities, Shengang Securities, Xiangcai Securities, Xinda Securities, Zheshang Securities, CICC, and CITIC Securities, with small and medium-sized securities accounting for half of the market.




3. Securities Times: As of December 28th, there have been 3065 companies receiving institutions and publicly disclosing research records this year, accounting for about 57% of the total number of A-share companies, further increasing the proportion of surveyed companies from last year (49%), setting a new historical high. Overall, among all surveyed companies, small cap stocks still dominate.




4. The China Securities Association has released the 2022 Securities Research Report on Business Operations. As of the end of 2022, there were a total of 3858 analysts in the research departments of 100 securities companies, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The sum of the top 30 securities analysts in the industry accounts for 70.48% of the total number of analysts.




Industry observation




1. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM): The annual production and sales are expected to reach around 30 million vehicles in 2023, with new energy vehicle production and sales exceeding 9 million vehicles and automobile exports approaching 5 million vehicles. The market share of Chinese brand passenger cars is stable at over 50%, with multiple indicators reaching historic highs.




2. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: From January to November, global automobile sales reached 80.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11%. However, there is still a 6% gap from the high point in recent years, and the gap level has narrowed. In November, global car sales reached 7.83 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, slightly lower than the peak in November 2017 by 7%, and at the second highest level in previous years. Chinese car companies have a world share of 38%.




3. Shenzhen, Guangdong Province: To promote stable and rapid investment growth. Give full play to the key role of investment, boldly plan various possible major projects in advance, highlight industrial investment, especially in manufacturing, focus on new infrastructure investment, vigorously promote private investment, actively expand government investment, and make greater efforts to attract investment, forming a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion between consumption and investment.




4. 10 departments including the National Health Commission: By the end of June 2024, comprehensively promote the construction of a close county-level medical and health community on a provincial basis; By the end of 2025, significant progress will be made in the co construction of county-level medical care, striving to establish a close county-level medical community with a reasonable layout, unified management of personnel, rapid rights and responsibilities, financial operation, division of labor and cooperation, continuous services, and information sharing in over 90% of counties (cities) nationwide; By 2027, the tightly knit county-level medical community will basically achieve full coverage.




5. CGN New Energy: As of December 29, CGN's domestic new energy has added more than 10 million kilowatts of installed capacity in 2023, including 8.46 million kilowatts of newly added self built projects and 1.55 million kilowatts of acquired projects. At this point, China National Nuclear Corporation's total installed capacity of new energy in operation has exceeded 45 million kilowatts, entering a new stage of high-quality development history.




6. Pengpai News: On the morning of December 30th, the launch ceremony of the first phase of the Shanghai Jinshan Offshore Wind Farm project (onshore part) was held in Shanyang Town, Jinshan District. The total investment of this project is 3.127 billion yuan. The plan is to achieve full capacity grid connected power generation by December 31, 2024. After completion, it is expected that the average annual grid connected electricity will be 107.5524 million kilowatt hours, with an average annual savings of 327800 tons of standard coal and a reduction of approximately 894700 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. It is also the largest offshore wind power project in the city's single development scale.




7. CCTV Finance: In 2023, the production of service robots in China will reach 7.06 million sets, with a market size of 66 billion yuan. With the increasingly fierce competition in the domestic market, many service robot companies have begun to seek alternative paths, and going abroad has become a common choice for many enterprises. At least two-thirds of domestic service robot companies have launched overseas projects since the beginning of this year.




8. CCTV News: Russia will lift tariffs on imported eggs from January 1 to June 30, 2024. This policy involves importing no more than 1.2 billion eggs. The above resolution aims to ensure price stability by increasing the supply of eggs in the domestic market.




Financial data




1. The State Administration of Financial Supervision: In the first 11 months, the national agricultural loans maintained a rapid growth, and rural financial services were further improved. As of the end of November, the balance of agricultural loans in China reached 56.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%.




·2023 Capital Market Review·




On December 29, 2023, the A-share market came to an end, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 3.70% for the year, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 13.54%, and the ChiNext Index falling 19.41%. The Beijing Composite 50 Index stood out with its impressive performance in the fourth quarter, rising 14.92% throughout the year. This year is a major year for A-shares, with the AI wave running through, and CPO, computing power, and AIGC constantly driving up market heat. In the second half of the year, Huawei's concept has risen strongly, with sectors such as Huawei smartphones, Huawei automobiles, and Huawei HarmonyOS appearing successively. In addition, sectors such as robot reducers, data rights confirmation, and short drama games have also become hot topics that investors cannot ignore. In terms of growth, the AIGC sector dominates the entire market with a 63.41% increase.




Securities Times: In 2023, based on the issuance date, 313 listed companies completed IPOs on A-shares, raising a total of 357.763 billion yuan. The number of IPOs and total fundraising decreased by 24.76% and 31.5% respectively compared to 2022. In the era of comprehensive registration system, registered new shares are favored by shareholders, with 67% of registered new shares being profitable on the first day of listing. With the implementation of new refinancing regulations, the scale of refinancing for listed companies has slowed down. This year, a total of 469 listed companies conducted refinancing, raising a total of 763.212 billion yuan, a decrease of about a quarter compared to last year. A total of 306 listed companies conducted 326 private placements, raising a total of nearly 575.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.42% compared to last year and a new low in nearly a decade.




First Financial: In 2023, domestic passive investment will flourish, especially with the improvement of the quantity and quality of the ETF market, playing an important role. The domestic ETF scale has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai ETF scale exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 20% compared to the beginning of the year; The share of ETFs in the Shanghai Stock Exchange has increased by over 55% compared to the beginning of the year, with a growth rate of over 50% for two consecutive years. The inflow of funds within the year exceeded 350 billion yuan. The number of ETFs in the Shanghai Stock Exchange has exceeded 500, with a scale of over 10 billion ETFs reaching 28, highlighting the flagship leading effect; The single scale of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETFs has exceeded 100 billion yuan, making it the largest equity fund in China. The total scale of the 8 Sci Tech Innovation 50 ETFs has exceeded 100 billion yuan, making it the second largest broad-based index series product in China. From the perspective of product performance, representative broad-based ETFs outperform 75% of active equity funds.




China Central Radio and Television Network: In 2023, the commodity market has shown a complex and tumultuous trend. Due to limited support from reduced production on the supply side for oil prices, international oil prices broke the monthly average for three consecutive negative periods in the last quarter, and the year's changes changed from rising to falling. The soaring natural gas and agricultural products in 2022 have seen a significant decline this year, especially last year's "king of commodities" LME nickel futures, whose prices have fallen by more than 40%, while Bitcoin, which plummeted by 60% last year, has rebounded by 153% this year. These are all evidence that the commodity market is seeking balance. Supported by global economic uncertainty in the first half of the year, and further strengthened with the expectation of the Federal Reserve stopping interest rate hikes in the second half, both gold spot and futures prices have reached historic highs.




Huaxia Times: Looking at the performance of major global stock markets over the past year, stock markets in multiple countries such as the United States, Japan, France, Germany, and India have all set historical highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 13.7% throughout the year, the S&P 500 has risen by 24.23%, and the Nasdaq has risen by 43.42%, ranking first among major global stock indices in terms of gains. The cooling of inflation expectations in the United States has raised market expectations for a soft landing of the economy; The continuous breakthroughs in technologies such as AIGC, superconductivity, and robotics have driven the rise of technology stocks, which is also the main reason for the rise of the US stock market. The Japanese stock market performed the best in a decade for the whole year, while the Indian stock market set a record for eight consecutive years of gains. On the European side, stock markets in Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and other countries have all reached historic highs at one point. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 13.82% throughout the year, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.


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