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Weekly Financial Summary 2023-05-08

Date: 2023-05-08
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Financial attention


Foreign Exchange Bureau: At the end of April, the scale of foreign exchange reserves reached 3204.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.9 billion US dollars compared to the previous month; Gold reserve reported 66.76 million ounces, up 260000 ounces month on month, up for six consecutive months.




Macroeconomics




1. Shanghai Securities News: During the May Day holiday this year, the number of inbound and outbound personnel at Hongqiao Airport exceeded 29000. This is the first peak of inbound and outbound passenger flow since the resumption of international and Hong Kong Macao Taiwan routes at Hongqiao Airport on March 26th.




2. Central Meteorological Observatory: On May 7, the highest temperature in Yuanyang, Yunnan, once reached 43.1 ℃, which is the first national station of this year to exceed 43 ℃.




3. Global Network: A cargo ship loaded with corn has successfully arrived at Guangdong's Machong Port from South Africa, marking the official opening of the South African corn export channel to China. Experts say that China has opened up two consecutive sources of corn imports, Brazil and South Africa, replacing the previous situation where China relied heavily on the United States and Ukraine for corn. This means that the previous pattern of 'the United States being the dominant one' in China's corn imports is undergoing significant changes.




4. Lianhe Zaobao: It is reported that on the afternoon of May 6, a record high temperature of 44.1 degrees Celsius appeared in Qinghua, in the north central province of Vietnam, higher than the 43.4 degrees Celsius recorded in Xiangxi County in 2019. Most South Asian countries have been experiencing hot and stuffy weather in April. According to the past, the weather in Vietnam varies from south to north, but currently extreme high temperatures have occurred throughout Vietnam.




Stock market inventory




1. CICC: Based on the current internal and external environment, we will continue to maintain a positive view on the A-share market. The current market opportunity still outweighs the risk. Pay attention to the following three main lines. 1) The broad consumer sectors that have significant room for fundamental restoration and flexibility, and continue to be supported by policies, such as food and beverages; 2) Pay attention to the growth areas supported by policies such as industrial chain security and digital economy, including high-end manufacturing, technology software and hardware, and the cautious expectations in the new energy field are also expected to be repaired; 3) Benefited from the the Belt and Road strategy, as well as state-owned enterprise reform and other thematic opportunities.




2. Haitong Securities: With a rate hike in May or the last rate hike by the Federal Reserve, precious metals are expected to usher in segmented investment opportunities against the backdrop of a marginal slowdown in monetary tightening policies. However, it should be noted that the resilience of the US labor market remains strong, and it may still be early to discuss the process of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. In addition, it is expected that the central bank's gold purchase demand will continue to shine in the process of 'deglobalization', and investment demand is expected to grow steadily with the advent of the golden cycle. The strong demand may support the gold price to remain high.




3. Tianfeng Securities: Starting from the logic of the April decision, the market may tilt towards segmented tracks and AI empowerment direction with more obvious improvement in economic trends after May. One is the gaming, financial IT, and cloud computing industries in the media and computer sub industries, where the current prosperity has improved significantly; Secondly, AI empowers and drives larger directions, such as computing power and some AI applications; Thirdly, with the global semiconductor cycle approaching its bottom and the logic of localization, we are optimistic about opportunities in the semiconductor industry chain.




4. Industrial Securities: Although the digital economy industry may experience short-term overheating and trading sentiment, with fluctuations and differentiation, truly high-quality companies will eventually stand out. The digital economy is only at the top of the bottom, and the so-called top of the bottom is the industry's major cycle of globalization and technology wave. Therefore, the development of the industry is still at the bottom, and the top is the short-term top of trading overheating.




5. Buffett: Western oil has many high-quality oil wells, which is a completely different oil business. In the past few months, preferred shares of $400 million to $500 million have been redeemed at a price 110% above their face value. We appreciate the management of Western Petroleum. We may increase our holdings in the future, but we are currently satisfied with our positions.




6. Da Beinong: The pig market in the first half of this year was not very good, but remained optimistic for the entire year. Based on the existing production plan and market situation, the company has adjusted its target for pig production in 2023 to 5 million to 5.5 million. This is due to a loss in pig production in the first half of this year, and excluding breeding pigs, the current stock of fattening and piglets is about 2.7 million. In the first quarter, the company sold over 1.4 million pigs, totaling over 4.1 million pigs.




7. Aofei Entertainment: Recently, related concepts such as Artificial Intelligence Generated Content (AIGC) and Chat GPT have become hot topics in the market. At present, the AIGC related industry market is still in the early stages of development, and the company's main business and related technology application are still in the research and exploration stage. There is uncertainty in the implementation effect and time, and it will not have a practical impact on the company's operating efficiency in the short term.




8. CICC Corporation: The shareholder Haier Jinying plans to reduce its A-share holdings of the company by no more than 96545100 shares, or no more than 2% of the total share capital of the company.




9. New share subscription: This week, a total of 10 new share subscriptions were made, including 2 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Main Board, 4 on the Growth Enterprise Board, and 4 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, including Changqing Technology, Sanlian Forging, Century Hengtong, Langkun Environment, Yahua Electronics, Intel Technology, China Science and Technology Flight Test, Anjie Si, Meixin Shenghe Aerospace Software.




10. Restrict and lift restrictions: This week, a total of 77 restricted shares were lifted, with a total of 4.111 billion shares lifted and a market value of 68.065 billion yuan lifted. Among them, the new industry ranked first on the lifting list with 26.429 billion yuan, while Beijing North and CICC Gold ranked second and third with 6.553 billion yuan and 5.918 billion yuan, respectively.




Industry Observation




1. Shanghai Securities News: It is reported that in the first quarter, a total of 480 electric energy storage projects (including planning, construction, and operation) were released in China, with a total energy storage capacity of 103.6GW. Among them, the total scale of new energy storage projects is 41.4GW/92.1GWh, and the operating project scale is 2.9GW/6.0GWh. The power scale has increased by 1178% year-on-year and decreased by 52% month on month.




2. Ministry of Ecology and Environment: Currently, the seawater quality in China's jurisdictional waters is generally stable, and the proportion of Class I to Class II excellent seawater quality in coastal waters nationwide is 81.9%. However, some coastal waters are still polluted, mainly distributed in Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay, Laizhou Bay, Yangtze River Estuary, Hangzhou Bay, the Pearl River Estuary and other coastal waters, and the main indicators exceeding the standard are inorganic nitrogen and reactive phosphate.




3. Ren Haoxiang, Vice President of China Federation of Things: In 2022, the total social logistics volume in China reached 347.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and the logistics market size has ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years. The total revenue of the logistics industry is 12.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.




4. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation of Passenger Transport, said that the significant difference between the new energy vehicle market and the traditional fuel vehicle market is that the popularity of pure electric vehicles in small cities and county and township markets is still relatively low, while the popularity of traditional fuel vehicles in rural markets is relatively strong. Therefore, in the county and township markets, it should be said that there is huge development space for new energy development.




5. Xinhua News Agency: Shanghai Institute of Physical Education, School of Economics and Management, and other institutions have released the '2022 China Fitness Industry Data Report'. In 2022, with the assistance of social media and live streaming platforms, more people joined the ranks of home sports and fitness, and the overall population base participating in sports and fitness increased significantly. The proportion of female fitness consumers reached 61.93%, with a rapid growth compared to 2021.




6. MacRumors: Apple will mass produce M3 chips in the second half of this year, using TSMC's 3nm process. At the same time, the iPhone 15 Pro series in the second half of the year uses the A17 chip, which is also built based on TSMC's 3nm process. Therefore, TSMC cannot meet the production capacity requirements of both M3 and A17 chips simultaneously.




7. South Korean Bureau of Statistics: In April, the price index for dining out was 117.15 (2020: 100), a month on month increase of 0.7%, showing an upward trend for 29 consecutive months. During the 29 month period, the cumulative increase in dining out prices in South Korea reached 16.8%. Specifically, hamburgers (27.8%), pizza (24.3%), and seaweed steamed buns (23.2%) saw significant increases.




Financial data




1. Last Friday, the onshore Chinese yuan closed at 6:30 pm against the US dollar at 6.9114, up 0.0694% and 0.2454% for the week; The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan was 6.9114, down 0.0869%, and up 0.1820% for the week.




2. New Third Board: Last week, there were no new listed companies, with a transaction amount of 559 million, a decrease of 66.35% compared to the previous week. As of now, the total number of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 6499. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative transaction amount of companies listed on the New Third Board has reached 18.2 billion yuan.




3. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: Last week, the trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota listing agreement was 21 tons, with a total transaction volume of 1165.50 yuan, and the closing price was 55.50 yuan/ton, up 0.91% for the week.




4. US stocks: Last Friday, the Dow rose 1.65% to 33674.38 points, with a weekly decline of 1.24%; The S&P 500 index rose 1.85% to close at 4136.25, down 0.8% for the week; The Nasdaq rose 2.25% to 12235.41 points, up 0.07% for the week.




5. Europe: Last Friday, the German DAX30 index rose 1.44% to 15961.02, up 0.24% for the week; The French CAC40 index rose 1.26% to close at 7432.93, down 0.78% for the week; The FTSE 100 index in the UK rose 0.98% to 7778.38, down 1.17% for the week.




6. Gold: Last Friday, COMEX June gold futures closed 1.5% lower at $2024.80 per ounce, up 1.28% for the week.




7. Crude oil: Last Friday, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures rose 4.05% to $71.34 per barrel, a weekly drop of nearly 7%; Brent crude oil futures closed up 3.86% at $75.3 per barrel, down 6% for the week.




Economic Daily: Electricity data is a 'barometer' and 'wind vane' that reflects the operation of the economy. Since the beginning of this year, with the gradual recovery of consumer confidence and the resumption of production by enterprises, the overall electricity consumption in multiple regions has shown positive signals. In March, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society was 5.9%, while in the first two months, this figure was only 2.3%. The number has doubled, and the economy is rapidly recovering. In the first quarter, 26 provinces achieved positive growth in electricity consumption; The electricity consumption in the accommodation and catering industries increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a 7.1 percentage point increase compared to the fourth quarter of last year; The electricity consumption of the new energy vehicle charging and swapping service industry increased significantly by 63% year-on-year. From a regional perspective, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Tibet in the central and western regions exceeded 10% in the first quarter, while the growth rate of electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi exceeded 8%.




► CITIC Construction Investment: From the upstream coal production situation, the raw coal production in March was 420 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the growth rate slowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; Imported coal reached 100 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 96.1%. The domestic raw coal production remains high, while the growth rate of coal import further increases, mainly due to the decline in overseas coal prices stimulating the recovery of import demand. The gradual relaxation of the supply side of imported coal is expected to force a downward adjustment in domestic coal prices on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is expected to reduce the comprehensive coal consumption costs of domestic coastal power plants. Therefore, it is judged that the supply and demand of thermal coal will be loose in the short term, and there will be downward pressure on prices. We are optimistic about thermal power operators, especially the targets of thermal power transformation into new energy operations.




China Electricity Union: There is uncertainty in terms of electricity supply, such as precipitation, wind and solar resources, and fuel supply. The meteorological department predicts that in the summer of this year (June August), there will be less precipitation and higher temperatures in the eastern part of Southwest China and central China. Most of Hubei, northern Hunan, eastern Chongqing, northeastern Sichuan, and other places will have 20-50% less precipitation, or there may be regional droughts, which will affect the inflow of hydropower and are expected to affect local supply and export. In addition, the continuous losses of coal-fired power enterprises have led to insufficient investment in technical renovation and maintenance, leading to an increase in equipment risks and hidden dangers, all of which have increased the uncertainty of power production and supply. It is expected that during the peak summer season, the power supply and demand situation in East China, Central China, and South China will be tight, while the power supply and demand in North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China will be basically balanced.




Guoxin Securities: Since 2020, there has been a long-term mismatch in investment in power and power grids, and the pressure on power grid consumption has gradually increased. This year, State Grid of China plans to invest over 520 billion yuan, setting a new historical high. It is expected that power grid investment will enter an upward cycle from 2023 to 2025. In March, the national investment in power supply projects reached 58.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.4%; The completed investment in power grid engineering reached 34.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, indicating a turning point in power grid investment. The construction of transmission and distribution networks is expected to usher in concentrated production, which will drive the recovery of demand for various types of primary and secondary power equipment. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities brought by the accelerated construction of the power grid, including the driving force of ultra-high voltage construction, including transformers, high-voltage switches, converter valves, and control and protection equipment; The construction of distribution networks drives related primary and secondary equipment; Software and solution products driven by grid intelligence and digitization.


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